Scenarios and triggers (not financial advice)
A) Basic - balance/rotation to the averages at 4.49-4.46 with an attempt to hold the uptrend.
Why basic: ADX is high and CMF>0 (the trend is alive), but MACD-hist is negative, OI↓, and we are close to the upper edges of BB/KC → more often, the market "breathes" down to the averages before continuing.
• Trigger: 4h-close < 4 486/4 464 (BB-Mid/KC-Mid) with RSI < 60 or weakening of the MACD histogram.
• Targets: 4 475 → 4 324; with inertia, 4 342 (POC)/4 140 (VAL).
• Cancel: quick redemption and consolidation above 4 592–4 604.
B) Continuation of the upward trend (accepting above the high zone).
• Trigger: holding above 4 55x–4 56x and 4h-closing > 4 618.9 with a buffer ≈ +0.1·ATR ≈ +7$ → > 4 626, while OBV z50 ≥ 0 and OI ROC(5) ≥ 0.
• Goals: 4 686 (LVN) → 4 727 (VAH) → 4 808 (LVN).
• Invalidator: return < 4 591 with an increase in OI on a red candle.
C) Acceleration downwards (explicit rejection from above).
• Trigger: false takeaway 4,591-4,619 (long upper shadows) + confirmed bearish divergences of RSI/MFI/OBV and OI↑ on the decline.
• Goals: 4 486 → 4 464 → 4 324; if weak, test 4,342 (POC) and only then 4,140 (VAL).
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Tactics (example of logic)
• Reversal long: zones 4 486 / 4 464 with signs of demand (candle reaction, CMF≥0, OBV z50≥0). Targets: 4 592–4 604 → 4 619; stop under 4 464 − 0.3×ATR ≈ 20$.
• Impulse long: after fixing > 4 626. Partial fixation at 4 686, then 4 727/4 808; trail on EMA20/KC-Mid.
• Contra-trend short: only when 4 591–4 619 is rejected + divergence and MACD-hist↓, OI↑ on the fall. Targets: 4,486 → 4,464 → 4,424–4,324; stop at 4,626–4,635.
⸻
Briefly: what to expect
The trend is strong (ADX), the demand is positive (CMF), but the momentum is cooling, the OI is decreasing, and the price is stretched towards VWAP/BB-Upper. I expect a basic balance/rotation to 4.49→4.46, after which the market will decide:
• Fix above 4 626 → chance for 4 686 → 4 727 → 4 808.
• Fall below 4 464 → 4 324, with weakness at 4 342 (POC)/4 140 (VAL).
A) Basic - balance/rotation to the averages at 4.49-4.46 with an attempt to hold the uptrend.
Why basic: ADX is high and CMF>0 (the trend is alive), but MACD-hist is negative, OI↓, and we are close to the upper edges of BB/KC → more often, the market "breathes" down to the averages before continuing.
• Trigger: 4h-close < 4 486/4 464 (BB-Mid/KC-Mid) with RSI < 60 or weakening of the MACD histogram.
• Targets: 4 475 → 4 324; with inertia, 4 342 (POC)/4 140 (VAL).
• Cancel: quick redemption and consolidation above 4 592–4 604.
B) Continuation of the upward trend (accepting above the high zone).
• Trigger: holding above 4 55x–4 56x and 4h-closing > 4 618.9 with a buffer ≈ +0.1·ATR ≈ +7$ → > 4 626, while OBV z50 ≥ 0 and OI ROC(5) ≥ 0.
• Goals: 4 686 (LVN) → 4 727 (VAH) → 4 808 (LVN).
• Invalidator: return < 4 591 with an increase in OI on a red candle.
C) Acceleration downwards (explicit rejection from above).
• Trigger: false takeaway 4,591-4,619 (long upper shadows) + confirmed bearish divergences of RSI/MFI/OBV and OI↑ on the decline.
• Goals: 4 486 → 4 464 → 4 324; if weak, test 4,342 (POC) and only then 4,140 (VAL).
⸻
Tactics (example of logic)
• Reversal long: zones 4 486 / 4 464 with signs of demand (candle reaction, CMF≥0, OBV z50≥0). Targets: 4 592–4 604 → 4 619; stop under 4 464 − 0.3×ATR ≈ 20$.
• Impulse long: after fixing > 4 626. Partial fixation at 4 686, then 4 727/4 808; trail on EMA20/KC-Mid.
• Contra-trend short: only when 4 591–4 619 is rejected + divergence and MACD-hist↓, OI↑ on the fall. Targets: 4,486 → 4,464 → 4,424–4,324; stop at 4,626–4,635.
⸻
Briefly: what to expect
The trend is strong (ADX), the demand is positive (CMF), but the momentum is cooling, the OI is decreasing, and the price is stretched towards VWAP/BB-Upper. I expect a basic balance/rotation to 4.49→4.46, after which the market will decide:
• Fix above 4 626 → chance for 4 686 → 4 727 → 4 808.
• Fall below 4 464 → 4 324, with weakness at 4 342 (POC)/4 140 (VAL).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.