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The Swing Strategy, I been using

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Zone‑to‑Zone Trading

1.1 Drawing the Zones

What is a zone?
A price area (not a single line) where the market repeatedly reacts: flips from support→resistance (S/R) or resistance→support (R/S), stalls, or coils.

Priority by timeframe:
Monthly ≥ Weekly ≥ Daily ≥ Hourly. Higher‑timeframe zones carry more weight.

How to mark zones

Start on monthly, and highlight obvious S/R bands.

Drill down to weekly, refine, or add.

Drill down to daily, refine, or add.

Drill down to hourly for tactical entries.

Clues for a quality zone

Prior breakout level that later flips to S/R on retest and consolidates before resolution.

Clear historical reaction clusters (wicks, bodies, or gaps).

Visible “sensitivity” (multiple rejections/holds in the same area).

1.2 Trading the Zones

Entry: Wait for local consolidation near a zone, then take the breakout.

Stops:

Conservative: Below the box low (consolidation floor).

Tight: Mid‑box (accept higher stop‑out rate, better R).

Filter:

Longs only above 50 SMA, shorts only below 50 SMA (trend filter).

1.3 Range vs. Exact Level

Treat zones as bands, not one price tick. I would take the pivot close to the opening of the first red candle if it's a bullish pivot.

At times a single line is acceptable (e.g., clean, repeated close‑basis pivot), but default to ranges.

2) Box System
2.1 Market Phases

Sideways (consolidation) → build energy (boxes form between zones).

Trending → series of HH/HL (up) or LH/LL (down).

2.2 Trend Structure

Trends breathe via consolidation → expansion → consolidation.

Breakouts can:

Go with no retest

Retest the boundary and go

Brief incursion back into box, then full resolve

The first inner zone inside the box is critical: if a new uptrend is valid, the price shouldn’t revisit below it.

Stops: below that first inner zone.

Note: Zone‑to‑Zone shines in non‑trendy markets (FX, many dividend names).

2.3 Types of Boxes

MA roles (fractal):

9 SMA → short‑term momentum

50 SMA → intermediate momentum

21 SMA → the inflection between 9 and 50; often reacts first

2.3.1 Base Box

Both the 9 & 50 SMA flatten for an extended period.

Highest stored energy; breakouts can start major trends.

2.3.2 50 SMA Box

Sideways price, 9 SMA flat, 50 SMA rising/falling into price as dynamic S/R.

Breakout after the 50 SMA reaches the box.

2.3.3 9 SMA Box

Shorter coil (≈ 3–4 candles).

9 SMA catches up; breakout follows.

Shortest consolidation; quicker moves.

2.3.4 9 vs 50 Comparison

9 SMA trend: 2× HH/HL supported by 9. Parabolic (≈20% of cases): each candle’s low should not undercut the prior candle’s low.

9 SMA box: brief sideways until 9 SMA “tags” price → quick reaction.

50 SMA boxes: longer coil; 50 “arrives,” 9 often flat.

Base box: 50 is inside & flat; price crossed above/below multiple times.

2.4 System Objectives Checklist

Trend-following or mean-reversion?

Entry conditions?

Exit logic?

System expectancy?

Risk model?

Entries

Box breakout (bullish): Prefer consolidation at the top‑right of the box before break → higher probability.

Zone‑to‑Zone: Look for a lower‑TF coil at a higher‑TF zone → break of coil for entry.

Profit & Exits

Next zone target; or

Exit when an uptrend fails to make an HL (i.e., breaks prior swing low).

Stops

Box breakout: Below the first inner zone or box low.

Zone‑to‑Zone: Based on the lower‑TF coil used for entry.

Position Size = 4% per trade or less.

2.5 Trading the Boxes

Four box archetypes: 9 SMA, 21 SMA, 50 SMA, and Base.

Base Box

More false starts; longest runs when it goes.

Prefer equity or bull‑put spreads; ride while price > 50 SMA.

50 SMA Box

The first 50‑box after a base is the most reliable.

Daily 50‑box usually follows 3–4 weeks of coil; expect ≈1.5–2 weeks of trend leg.

Tactics: Stock and swing options (expiry ≈ coil length or slightly more).

9 SMA Boxes

Breakout leg ≈2–3 days, then another coil.

Tactics: Scalps with 1–1.5 weeks to expiry; 1–2 OTM strikes.

Quick Summary

Base: most power, least timing precision.

50: first after base = best reliability; second is weaker.

9: short, sharp, tactical.

2.6 Overall Market Environment

If indices trend up above the latest daily zone, 8/10 breakouts can succeed.

If indices chop under the latest daily zone, expect ≈5/10 to work.

Compare QQQ vs. SPY strength to gauge risk‑on/off.

Rules of thumb

Upside bias: Index above the latest daily zone (or proxy 9 SMA if approximating).

Scalping bias: Above the latest hourly zone.

2.7 Box System & Long‑Term Investing (LTI)

Markets are fractal; weekly = daily = hourly in pattern, not speed.

Trend rule: in an uptrend, price should not break prior swing low (mirror for downtrend).

Trailing stop logic

Uptrend: trail to recent swing low once confirmed.

Downtrend: trail to recent swing high.

MA benchmarks:

Hard breaks of 9 SMA → likely consolidation.

50 SMA for longer bias.

Caveat: large‑cap growth rarely trends cleanly down (index dependency & fund flows).

2.8 Watchlist Creation

Three steps

Scan sectors for consolidations (boxes).

Check relative strength vs. SPY (e.g., XLK/SPY).

Review the top 10–20 holdings.

Tiers

A‑List: Box about to break + high options liquidity.

B‑List: Box about to break but low options liquidity.

C‑List: Boxes are still developing.

2.9 Role of the 21 SMA

Acts as the inflection between 9 and 50.

The highest failed‑break probability occurs at 21 boxes.

After a 9‑trend ends, watch 21 for the reaction:

Back to recent highs and breaks, or

Failed break; or

Reject at 9 after 21 reactions.

2.10 SPX Intraday Scalp Pattern

Don’t chase the open; wait 1–2 hours for the market to form an intraday box (2–3 h coil).

Enter as the range breaks: you benefit from direction and rising IV (“double whammy”).

2.11 SQUEEZE Pro Indicator (SQZPRO)

Concept: A squeeze occurs when Bollinger Bands compress inside the Keltner Channels (BB inside KC) → energy building.

Dot codes (suggested):

Green: No squeeze

Black: Mild squeeze (BB within 2 ATR KC)

Red: Tight squeeze (BB within 1.5 ATR KC)

Yellow: Very tight (best odds for expansion)

Heuristic: The tighter the compression, the stronger the potential release.

2.12 Backtesting & Strategy Creation

Use TradingView Replay. Segment by regime (bull, bear, or chop).

Test entries, exits, and risk variants.

Purpose: build statistical confidence to keep your “monkey brain” from hijacking.

2.13 QQQ vs SPY for Intraday

SPY: S&P 500 (market‑cap weighted, broader economy).

QQQ: NASDAQ‑100 ex‑financials (tech‑heavy, risk‑on).

Scenarios

Bullish clean: QQQ > SPY, and both above hourly 9.

Bearish clean: QQQ < SPY, and both below hourly 9.

Chop, green day: Market up but QQQ < SPY → grindy.

Chop, red day: Market down and SPY < QQQ → grindy.

Read strength: Compare % change vs prior close.

2.14 Gaps: What & Why

Markets aren’t 24/7; exogenous events (earnings, geopolitics) reset expectations → open ≠ prior close.

How to trade gaps

Treat the gap range as support (gap‑up) or resistance (gap‑down); draw a gap box.

Unfilled gaps are potent S/R. Above, a bullish gap favors continuation until filled.

If the gap is huge, rely on historic zones to seed new levels within.

2.15 Scalps vs Swings

Scalps: minutes–hours; TF ≤ 1h.

Swings: days–weeks; TF ≥ 1h (prefer daily baseline).

Drill down one TF for refined entries; manage to the anchor TF.

Expiration (rules of thumb)

Stocks (scalps): Mon/Tue → same‑week; Wed/Thu/Fri → next‑week.

Indices (scalps): 1–2 DTE, 1–2 OTM.

Swings: Expiry ≥ consolidation length (often 1–1.5× coil duration).

2.16 Which Timeframe Should You Trade?

Real Trading Hours, 1-2 HR → Day trading & scalps (≤1h TF).

After Hours, 1–2 hr → Swings (≥1 hr, ideally daily).

Less than 1 HR → Multi‑week swings or LTI (weekly charts).

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.