15/10/25 Retest Oct 9 High or FT Selling Below 20-Day EMA?

1. Tuesday’s candlestick (Oct 14) was a bear bar closing near its low with a long tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create a strong retest of the October 9 high in the next few days, or if the move would lack sustained follow-through buying and stall at a lower high.
   
3. The market traded higher but reversed into a bear bar, closing below the 20-day EMA.
   
4. The bulls see the current move as a pullback and want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
   
5. They hope to get a retest of the October 9 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
6. They must create strong consecutive bull bars to increase the odds of the market trading higher.
   
7. The bears see the recent (Oct 9) move as a buy vacuum retest of the August high.
   
8. They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (Aug 19 and Oct 9), a lower high major trend reversal (Oct 9), as well as a larger double top bear flag with the February high.
   
9. The bears must create consecutive bear bars trading far below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a deeper pullback.
   
10. Production: SPPOMA's first 10 days increased up 6%.
    
11. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
12. Export: Oct up 9% for the first 10 days as per ITS.
    
13. For today (Wednesday, Oct 15), traders will see if the bulls can create a retest of the October 9 high in the next few days, even if it only forms a lower high.
    
14. Or will the bears be able to create follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA? If they do, especially it is strong, it could swing the odds for a deeper pullback moving forward.
    

Andrew