3/10/25 Can Bulls Get a Strong Weekly Candlestick?

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Oct 2) was a follow-through bull bar closing in its upper half with a prominent tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create more follow-through buying, closing above the 20-day EMA, or if the market would test near the 20-day EMA but stall and trade lower instead.
   
3. The market traded higher and closed above the 20-day EMA.
   
4. The bulls view the recent move (Sep 23) as a deeper two-legged pullback and want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 29 and Sep 23) and a large double bottom bull flag (Aug 4 and Sep 23).
   
5. They view the recent move (Sept 30) as a retest of the prior low (Sept 23), and want the pullback to lack follow-through selling, forming a higher low. So far, this is the case.
   
6. They want a retest of the August high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
7. They must create follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of the market trading higher.
   
8. The bears got a deep pullback and a breakout below the tight trading range (Sep 23), but the move lacked sustained follow-through selling.
   
9. They see the current move as a pullback and want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance.
   
10. They want the market to form a double top bear flag with the Sept 26 high.
    
11. They need to create strong bear bars below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal.
    
12. Production for Oct should be down.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
14. Export: Oct export remains to be seen.
    
15. The bulls want a strong bull bar today so that the weekly candlestick will close near its high and above last week's high. If this is the case, odds slightly favor next week to trade at least a little higher.
    
16. The bears want a strong bear bar closing below the 20-day EMA today, so that the weekly candlestick will close as a doji or with a small bear body, reducing the recent bullishness.
    
17. For today (Friday, Oct 3), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong bull bar closing near its high. If they do, the weekly candlestick will close near its high, which will increase the bullishness for next week.
    
18. Or will the market stall and reverse below the 20-day EMA instead?
    

Andrew