17/10/25 Can Bull Create Strong FT Buying or Fail to Do So?

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Oct 16) was another doji trading around the 20-day EMA.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create a retest of the October 9 high in the next few days, even if it only forms a lower high, or if the bears would be able to create follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA.
   
3. The market continued to trade sideways around the 20-day EMA. During Thursday night's market, the market traded higher.
   
4. The bulls see the recent move (Oct 15) as a pullback and want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
   
5. They hope to get a retest of the October 9 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
6. They must create strong consecutive bull bars to increase the odds of the market trading higher.
   
7. They want today to close as a strong bull bar so that the weekly candlestick has a bull body and closes near its high.
   
8. The bears see the recent (Oct 9) move as a buy vacuum retest of the August high.
   
9. They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (Aug 19 and Oct 9), a lower high major trend reversal (Oct 9), as well as a larger double top bear flag with the February high.
   
10. They see Thursday night's rally (Oct 17) forming a lower high and want the market to reverse below the 20-day EMA.
    
11. The bears must create consecutive bear bars trading far below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a deeper pullback.
    
12. They want Friday to close as a strong bear bar so that the weekly candlestick will have a strong bear body.
    
13. Production: SPPOMA's first 15 days increased up 6%.
    
14. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
15. Export: Oct up 16% for the first 15 days as per ITS.
    
16. For today (Friday, Oct 17), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong bull bar. If they do, the weekly candlestick will close with a bull body near its high. If this is the case, the market could still trade slightly higher next week.
    
17. Or will the bears be able to create a strong bear bar, perhaps closing below the 20-day EMA? If they do, it will reduce the recent bullishness.
    

Andrew