Gold spike when the US government shutdown is looming

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Gold prices advanced firmly above the 3800 level, driven by escalating concerns surrounding the US government funding negotiations. A prolonged government shutdown could delay the release of key economic indicators, such as NFP and CPI, and potentially lead to a spike in unemployment from federal job losses. Conversely, the passage of a new funding agreement, ensuring continued US government operations, would likely exert significant downward pressure on gold prices. Consequently, the market anticipates heightened volatility pending the outcome of these fiscal discussions.

From a technical standpoint, XAUUSD is trading above the former resistance level of 3800, which now acts as key support. An expanding divergence between the 21 and 78-period EMAs signals robust bullish momentum. Nevertheless, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 70, short-term overbought conditions may introduce headwinds for XAUUSD.

By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategis at Exness

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