MSFT Weekly Outlook (Oct 28–31)

MSFT Weekly Outlook (Oct 28–31): “Structure Holding Strong — Can Bulls Reclaim $540 for the Next Leg?”

1. Weekly (1W) — Macro Structure
Microsoft remains firmly in a long-term bullish channel, maintaining higher lows since early 2024. The most recent CHoCH from the mid-2025 correction successfully held above $490, establishing a new structural higher low. Price has now reclaimed momentum, pushing toward the mid-channel resistance near $540–$555.
* Trend Bias: Bullish continuation phase
* Support: $492 → $456 → $400
* Resistance: $540 → $555 → $580
* Momentum: MACD still elevated but flattening — possible early reacceleration phase.
* Stoch RSI: Rebounding from midrange; momentum regaining strength.
💡 Weekly note: The broader uptrend remains clean. Holding above $490 keeps the door open for $555+ retest, with potential acceleration into Q4 if price can close above $540.

2. Daily (1D) — Regaining Control

The daily chart shows a clear BOS confirmation after a multi-week pullback. Buyers defended the $492–$500 demand zone, triggering a structural reversal and push back toward the upper trendline.
* Market Structure: Fresh BOS at $525 → signals bullish continuation.
* Support: $523 → $504 → $492
* Resistance: $540 → $555 → $565
* Indicators:
* MACD histogram flipped positive, confirming renewed momentum.
* Stoch RSI climbing toward upper band — healthy trending behavior.
📈 Daily view: Holding above $523 should lead to a test of $540–$555 next. A daily close above $540 confirms breakout continuation, potentially inviting gamma squeeze into $555–$565.

3. 1-Hour (1H) — Tactical Setup

Intraday chart shows disciplined bullish structure with repeated BOS and demand zones forming around $520–$525. Price is consolidating just below the $534 pivot — a clear inflection point.
* Bias: Intraday bullish while above $523.
* Support: $523 → $520 → $515
* Resistance: $534 → $540 → $550
* Setup Playbook:
* Breakout scalp: Above $534 → target $540–$545, trailing under $528.
* Dip entry: Buy between $523–$525 → target $533–$540.
* Invalidation: Below $520 = pause or short-term fade toward $515–$510.
💬 Scalp insight: The 1H MACD and RSI support an ongoing bullish cycle; however, momentum cooling near $534 suggests a quick retest of $525–$528 before breakout.

4. GEX & Options Sentiment

Based on the GEX overlay:
* Highest Positive NETGEX / Gamma Wall: $540 → $555
* Call Walls: $525 → $540 → $555
* Put Support Levels: $517 → $510 → $502
* IVR: 29.9 (relatively low — supports bullish gamma compression)
* IVx avg: 34.8 (slightly easing, bullish sentiment intact)
* Call Bias: 27.3% — neutral-to-bullish tilt.
🧩 Interpretation:
As long as MSFT remains above $523, options flow favors an upward drift into $540–$555 gamma cluster. Below $520, the momentum could unwind toward the $510–$505 put zone.

5. Suggested Options Scenarios
Bullish (preferred while > $523):
* Play: 530C–540C (0–2DTE) breakout setup.
* Entry: Above $534 breakout confirmation.
* Targets: $540 → $545 → $555
* Stop: Below $520
* Spread Alternative: 530/545 debit spread for defined risk if IV spikes post-breakout.
Dip-Buy Opportunity:
* Play: 525C (1DTE) near $523 retest.
* Target: $534 → $540
* Stop: Below $520
Bearish Hedge (only below $520):
* Play: 515P (1DTE) targeting $510 → $505.
* Stop: Back above $525

Directional Bias
Microsoft is holding strong across all timeframes. As long as $523–$525 support continues to defend, structure favors upside extension into $540–$555.
🎯 Primary Bias: Bullish continuation
⚠️ Invalidation: Breakdown below $520 → potential reversion toward $505 demand

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.