$MSFT earnings? Could we see another drop to $370?

Apr 25, 2024

META had a negative reaction to earnings yesterday. I was originally thinking that MSFT's earning reaction would be positive but as I look at the chart and options flows, I'm starting to think we're going to see a negative reaction.

I think most likely outcome is that we drop from here to around the $370 level, if that level can hold there's potential for one more rally into May to the $454 level. Otherwise if it can't, we risk seeing more downside to the lower levels.

Let's see what happens after the market closes.

Apr 25, 2024

Note

Welp, looks like the original idea was right. Initial reaction was up.

May 17, 2024

Note

Be careful here. Looks like a H&S top is forming. I think we see lower.

May 23, 2024

Note

I bought 400P for 5/31 today. Extremely risky, I'd likely take Sep puts for safety if you want to play the downside.

May 24, 2024

Note

Closed my position. Going to reopen next week. Think the move down likely happens next Thursday. Chop until then.