$PYPL PainPal Bros have attained Nirvana!

Sep 11

- Waiting for massive gains, they have grown old and achieved Nirvana!
- PYPL is getting better in innovation but the company isn't innovative faster. It is bloated with legacy tech and in many places their teams are working in silos with duplicated initiatives and effort.

- Alex is great CEO but stock buyback alone won't help. Law of large numbers and massive competition by various fintech will always be a drag for $PYPL.

- Market likes growth (organic expansion of multiple) which is a like drug for the market participants or massive EPS growth ( inorganic )

Where does PYPL stand?

year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 5.26 | 5.82 | 6.61 | 7.07
eps% | 14.59% |10.81% | 13.45% | 6.96%

For a mid teen eps%, fair forward p/e would be 15

Fair stock value:
year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
price | 78.9 | 87.3 | 99.15 | 106.05

Sep 11

Note

PYPL does have 60% upside in next 3 years. But I will pass as I like some asymmetric bet or volatility

Sep 14

Note

If I can get PYPL at $54-56 then I am willing to buy it and accumulate as at that level my downside risk is limited for the next 3-5 years

Sep 14

Note

Bear Case ( 10x forward earnings )

year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 5.26 | 5.82 | 6.61 | 7.07
eps% | 14.59% |10.81% | 13.45% | 6.96%
fair value | 52.6 | 58.2 | 66.1 | 70