QQQ Recap and Outlook for Intraday

Feb 14, 2022

Here is my recap for QQQ today and what to expect.

Recap:

Today was great. I always like a nice start to the week! Usually Mondays are either fantastic or miserable and it sets the mood for the rest of the week. Today, its setting the mood for a good week *knock on wood*.

So my levels for today adjusted for QQQ open (calculated by hand) were:
High: 348.73
Low: 343.57

SPSS set levels of:
High: 352.02
Low: 344.15

Actual Levels were:
High: 350.98
Low: 343.89

My trades:
I got long about 2 minutes after open. Scalped to 348.
Got short at 350.31 (waited on this entry because SPSS was telling me to watch out for 352 and wanted to confirm that it was wrong) scalped down to the 343.50, should have held because this thing TANKED more! But oh well. Beggers can't be choosers.
Got long again 343.95 because this was around my projected low (I allow for more leniency with entering QQQ than I do for entering SPY) and RSI was hard hard oversold. Those two conditions combined together generally mean an incoming aggressive pop to the upside. We did get this pop, but it took longer than I anticipated, so I didn't ride it up as high as I should have, because while the stock did as I expected, it didn't really do it HOW I expected (I expected almost immediate pop, but it was VERY heavy).

Outlook
The market is doing what I expected but teetering on what I was hoping for. I was hoping and expecting for a relief bounce, which we got. What I am hoping for is that this week marks a week of consolidation. On the daily chart, it looks like we could be priming for a bear flag before continuing down. I want this. I want this because I am afraid if we have a continuation of aggressive, heavy selling, we have just substituted one extreme (the extreme bull market we had in 2021) for the opposite extreme (an extreme bear market). Both markets are unsustainable and will just lead to more trouble down the road. I am all for bear markets, makes no difference to me, but I am just hoping for a stable bear market, not one where there is erratic and heavy dumping everywhere. Because that is just as unsustainable as the bull market we are now paying for. Right now, it is fairly heavy, not so much QQQ but SPY is extremely heavy and it makes me slightly nervous that we could just be jumping into another overly aggressive style of market.

Levels for tomorrow:
SPSS sets the following levels for tomorrow:
High: 349.44
Low: 343.84

My levels (calculated by hand):
High: 350.31
Low: 344:36
(Keep in mind, I think i need to update these formulas soon as QQQ has officially deviated from its trajectory it had when I did these coefficent formulas).
These will likely change based on the open price.
These calculations assume an open of around 347.61. They will change at market open once I have the actual open price.


Based on the 1 hour chart, it looks like we could go a bit higher tomorrow honestly. This would still be keeping with the bearish sentiment, because it would essentially be confirming that we are in a period of consolidation (that bear flag we want to form). If you look at the 1 hour chart you will see that V shaped formation. This kind of matches the math. SPSS conservative high estimate is 349.44 but if the conviction is there, there is a level we could reach tomorrow in the low 350s. So if we don't see rejection of the 349 area, chances are we have that conviction to take us slightly higher.

If we manage this, then likely we will be seeing consolidation this week, maybe a more bearish finish towards the end of the week.

Very IMPORTANT NOTE:
My ideas are generally directed to and for intra-day traders. I don't give much consideration to the long term forecast of a stock (But I sometimes dabble in this area). And these are more for me as a way to journal my own analysis as a reference guide. But I figure if I can help someone along the way, why not!

I am VERY interested in hearing from other day traders and their ideas. If you have any thoughts on what to expect, please share! I also love to hear from new traders, so if you are a new trader, welcome! I am sorry this is the market you are starting in. But please feel free to share your experiences!

Thanks all, and as always, safe trades!

Feb 15, 2022

Note

UPDATE Feb 15
Careful today shorting this. Seems like its going to be a bullish morning.

My adjusted calculations based on open price place a high of 355.19. We haven't hit this yet but its looking like it will, so be careful if entering an intra-day short position!

I suspect the afternoon may turn bearish.

As always trade safe everyone!

Feb 15, 2022

Note

EOD Update Feb 15:

Wow! Bullish finish today! Kind of expected. QQQ was playing games with me today. The exact games that SPY played with me yesterday. Just coming close to touching my projected high but not quite getting there.

And as expected it touched it later in the day and surpassed it. I wanted to go short, but since it surpassed it, my calculations told me it would touch AT LEAST 356. So waited and waited for this to happen, had nice bearish momentum only for it to come right back up at touch 356.

In hindsight, I should have went long when it bounced off calculated support for 352, but was very thrown off by its behaviour.

Lots and lots of games were played by QQQ. And for the reason I ended up not taking any trades on this stock today. Touche, QQQ, Touche. You won this round.