SPY is sitting right on top of the same demand block that has been holding since Dec 2–3. Price keeps tapping this zone but hasn’t broken it with conviction. Each test is getting weaker — candles are getting smaller, buyers are not pushing away like before, and liquidity keeps building underneath.
We can see the descending trendline on the 1H chart pressing SPY lower. Every bounce keeps getting sold earlier, showing clear compression. The whole structure is getting tight, and compression near support usually leads to an expansion move.
If SPY loses 682–681, that’s the clean break of this multi-day floor.
On the 15M chart, CHoCH after CHoCH around the same zone shows constant attempts to flip bullish, but none of them are sticking. That’s typically distribution above a key level — not accumulation. The BOS that mattered (Dec 9 morning) was followed by a failure to continue up. Since then, it’s been lower highs and weaker pushes.
The market is waiting for a catalyst — and the catalyst is most likely GEX.
GEX for SPY (What Actually Matters Tomorrow DEC.10)
• The highest positive NETGEX sits around 684, which has been acting as a clean ceiling. • The 3rd Call Wall sits around 683, and price rejected from that area multiple times. • Below current price, the Put Walls stack at 680 / 679 / 678 — tiny air pockets. • The HVL Support around 682 is holding for now, but it’s not reacting strongly.
What this tells me:
Dealers prefer SPY inside 682–684. A break outside that range will trigger dealer hedging → big move.
If SPY breaks 682, hedging flows flip to the downside and the first magnet is 680. If 680 flushes, the negative GEX zone opens the door to 678 quickly. There’s no real liquidity until then.
Upside only unlocks if SPY reclaims 683 with force — that would push hedging toward 685–687 again.
Right now, the structure + GEX both lean slightly bearish unless buyers step in early tomorrow.
How Big Tech Will Influence SPY Tomorrow & Friday
AAPL
AAPL has been weak and rejecting every small bounce. If AAPL continues sliding tomorrow, it will drag SPY because AAPL alone is nearly 7% of SPY’s weight.
What to watch: • If AAPL loses its intraday demand, SPY will NOT hold 682. • If AAPL holds and stabilizes, SPY may chop instead of flushing.
AAPL weakness = SPY downside confirmation.
MSFT
MSFT has been the strongest of the mega caps. It often prevents SPY from flushing too deep.
If MSFT stays firm: • SPY may bounce off 681–682 again.
If MSFT finally rolls over: • Expect SPY to immediately lose 682 and head toward 680.
If MSFT cracks structure, everything sells together.
NVDA
NVDA is the volatility engine. When NVDA is weak → QQQ drags → SPY feels it.
If NVDA pulls back even 1–2%, market-wide liquidity tightens and puts pressure on SPY’s trendline.
Watch NVDA’s trendline: if it breaks, SPY follows.
AMZN
AMZN controls a lot of discretionary sentiment. When AMZN is slow or red, SPY loses momentum.
If AMZN stays sideways: • SPY likely stays range-bound until GEX triggers a move.
If AMZN breaks intraday support: • SPY loses the battle at 682 faster.
META
META has been choppy recently, but it still influences risk-on behavior.
If META is green early: • SPY may bounce to retest 683–684.
If META is red: • SPY stays under the descending trendline and bleeds lower.
TSLA
TSLA is not a huge SPY component, but it affects risk sentiment and options flow across the entire market.
If TSLA is red and pulling liquidity: • SPY has trouble sustaining upward momentum.
If TSLA squeezes: • It can help SPY push into the upper GEX band near 685–687.
So, all the big tech names are leaning neutral-to-weak right now. None of them are breaking out. Most are sitting near demand, just like SPY.
That means:
If any one of the leaders breaks down → SPY will follow the move. If all of them bounce at the same time → SPY will attempt a squeeze toward 684–687.
But based on the current 1H + 15M price action, SPY is compressing under a descending trendline while sitting on a tired support zone. Combined with GEX, downside is easier than upside unless something shifts early tomorrow.
My Bias for Tomorrow Dec 10 & Friday Dec. 11 (Based on the Charts + GEX)
If 682 breaks → expect a clean move to 680 → 678. This aligns with the negative GEX pocket and the weakening SMC structure.
If 683 breaks upward → SPY likely retests 685–687. But upside requires big tech participation together.
Right now, the easier trade is still sell-the-pop into 683 unless tech shows real strength.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade your own plan and manage risk.
We can see the descending trendline on the 1H chart pressing SPY lower. Every bounce keeps getting sold earlier, showing clear compression. The whole structure is getting tight, and compression near support usually leads to an expansion move.
If SPY loses 682–681, that’s the clean break of this multi-day floor.
On the 15M chart, CHoCH after CHoCH around the same zone shows constant attempts to flip bullish, but none of them are sticking. That’s typically distribution above a key level — not accumulation. The BOS that mattered (Dec 9 morning) was followed by a failure to continue up. Since then, it’s been lower highs and weaker pushes.
The market is waiting for a catalyst — and the catalyst is most likely GEX.
GEX for SPY (What Actually Matters Tomorrow DEC.10)
• The highest positive NETGEX sits around 684, which has been acting as a clean ceiling. • The 3rd Call Wall sits around 683, and price rejected from that area multiple times. • Below current price, the Put Walls stack at 680 / 679 / 678 — tiny air pockets. • The HVL Support around 682 is holding for now, but it’s not reacting strongly.
What this tells me:
Dealers prefer SPY inside 682–684. A break outside that range will trigger dealer hedging → big move.
If SPY breaks 682, hedging flows flip to the downside and the first magnet is 680. If 680 flushes, the negative GEX zone opens the door to 678 quickly. There’s no real liquidity until then.
Upside only unlocks if SPY reclaims 683 with force — that would push hedging toward 685–687 again.
Right now, the structure + GEX both lean slightly bearish unless buyers step in early tomorrow.
How Big Tech Will Influence SPY Tomorrow & Friday
AAPL
AAPL has been weak and rejecting every small bounce. If AAPL continues sliding tomorrow, it will drag SPY because AAPL alone is nearly 7% of SPY’s weight.
What to watch: • If AAPL loses its intraday demand, SPY will NOT hold 682. • If AAPL holds and stabilizes, SPY may chop instead of flushing.
AAPL weakness = SPY downside confirmation.
MSFT
MSFT has been the strongest of the mega caps. It often prevents SPY from flushing too deep.
If MSFT stays firm: • SPY may bounce off 681–682 again.
If MSFT finally rolls over: • Expect SPY to immediately lose 682 and head toward 680.
If MSFT cracks structure, everything sells together.
NVDA
NVDA is the volatility engine. When NVDA is weak → QQQ drags → SPY feels it.
If NVDA pulls back even 1–2%, market-wide liquidity tightens and puts pressure on SPY’s trendline.
Watch NVDA’s trendline: if it breaks, SPY follows.
AMZN
AMZN controls a lot of discretionary sentiment. When AMZN is slow or red, SPY loses momentum.
If AMZN stays sideways: • SPY likely stays range-bound until GEX triggers a move.
If AMZN breaks intraday support: • SPY loses the battle at 682 faster.
META
META has been choppy recently, but it still influences risk-on behavior.
If META is green early: • SPY may bounce to retest 683–684.
If META is red: • SPY stays under the descending trendline and bleeds lower.
TSLA
TSLA is not a huge SPY component, but it affects risk sentiment and options flow across the entire market.
If TSLA is red and pulling liquidity: • SPY has trouble sustaining upward momentum.
If TSLA squeezes: • It can help SPY push into the upper GEX band near 685–687.
So, all the big tech names are leaning neutral-to-weak right now. None of them are breaking out. Most are sitting near demand, just like SPY.
That means:
If any one of the leaders breaks down → SPY will follow the move. If all of them bounce at the same time → SPY will attempt a squeeze toward 684–687.
But based on the current 1H + 15M price action, SPY is compressing under a descending trendline while sitting on a tired support zone. Combined with GEX, downside is easier than upside unless something shifts early tomorrow.
My Bias for Tomorrow Dec 10 & Friday Dec. 11 (Based on the Charts + GEX)
If 682 breaks → expect a clean move to 680 → 678. This aligns with the negative GEX pocket and the weakening SMC structure.
If 683 breaks upward → SPY likely retests 685–687. But upside requires big tech participation together.
Right now, the easier trade is still sell-the-pop into 683 unless tech shows real strength.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade your own plan and manage risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.