The Next $400–$450 Decision Zone!
🧭 Weekly Chart — Big Picture Momentum
Tesla has printed one of the cleanest BOS (Break of Structure) patterns on the weekly timeframe since the post-2023 recovery, confirming that the macro downtrend has flipped into a sustained bullish expansion. The stock ripped from its $216 CHoCH base and is now consolidating above the prior macro breakout line near $425.
However, the latest weekly candle shows stalling momentum, forming a short-term distribution near the $430–$440 region. That zone lines up perfectly with the previous supply structure and fib confluence from 2022 highs.
The MACD histogram remains strongly positive but is beginning to flatten — early warning that buying pressure might be easing. Stoch RSI is also hovering near overbought at 85+, signaling the need for a short-term reset before the next leg.
* Bullish scenario: A weekly close above $436–$440 would confirm strength continuation toward $488–$500, the next liquidity zone.
* Bearish scenario: A close below $410 opens the door for a healthy pullback to $367–$376, a major equilibrium level with demand imbalance and previous BOS base.
Weekly takeaway: Trend remains bullish, but short-term overextension hints at a pause or mild retracement before another drive up.
⚙️ Daily Chart — Structure and Cooling Phase
The daily chart confirms Tesla’s minor pullback within the larger bullish wave. After breaking above $400 with strong momentum, price is now consolidating just above its breakout order block ($415–$420).
The BOS on daily shows continuation potential, but MACD has started printing red bars — suggesting that momentum is fading and a retest is underway. The Stoch RSI sitting high around 93 indicates the correction may continue until momentum rebalances.
* Bullish case: If TSLA can hold $416 and print a higher low, the next upside targets are $442 → $455, then $488 (supply zone).
* Bearish case: A daily close below $414 would invalidate near-term bullish control, triggering a slide toward $400–$397, a major demand block that aligns with GEX PUT support.
Daily summary: Still in bullish structure, but short-term retracement needed for healthy continuation. Watch for $415 hold as pivot.
⏱ 1-Hour Chart — Trading Plan
On the 1-hour chart, TSLA is forming a short-term consolidation wedge between $420 and $436 after multiple CHoCH and BOS flips. The stock is bouncing between mid-range liquidity pockets, showing clear indecision from both sides.
MACD is recovering from a previous bearish cycle, while Stoch RSI has crossed up from mid-levels — showing early signs of a micro-bounce in progress. Volume confirms that buyers are active at $424–$425 zone, but strong resistance remains near $436–$440.
Trading Plan:
* Bullish setup: Enter above $436 breakout with target $445 → $455, stop at $425.
* Bearish setup: Short if $420 fails with downside target $405 → $400, stop at $430.
This structure allows swing-to-scalp flexibility — traders can lean bullish above $425 but must stay cautious until price reclaims $436 decisively.
💥 Options GEX & Institutional Positioning
Based on the Options GEX [PRO] chart:
* Highest Call Wall: $450 — heavy resistance and likely magnet if bulls push higher.
* Next positive GEX zone: $445, where gamma flips positive and market makers chase delta hedges upward.
* Major PUT Wall: $400 — strong defense area, aligning perfectly with chart structure and demand.
* IVR 25.7 / IVx 67.7 → volatility premium moderate, favoring directional plays with limited spreads.
Gamma interpretation: As long as price holds between $425–$440, market makers maintain positive gamma, keeping price pinned and range-bound. A clean breakout above $440 could trigger a gamma squeeze toward $455–$460.
🎯 Option Strategy Ideas
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Play:
* Buy $430C / Sell $450C (Oct 25 expiry) — risk ~$6 for a potential $14 reward if Tesla rallies to $450+.
* Aggressive intraday: Buy 0DTE/2DTE $430 Calls only if price reclaims $436 with volume.
2️⃣ Bearish Hedge:
* Buy $420P / Sell $400P (Oct 18 expiry) — ideal if $420 support fails and correction deepens.
3️⃣ Neutral Income Strategy:
* Expecting chop between $420–$440? Sell Iron Condor ($440C/$450C and $410P/$400P) to profit from time decay.
💬 Final Thoughts
Tesla remains one of the strongest setups in the market — the bullish macro trend is intact, but current levels are stretched. Expect sideways or minor correction before another breakout attempt. The $415–$425 area is the key battleground: lose it, and we test $400; reclaim $436+, and the rocket’s back on for $455–$480.
My TA continues to show high win-rate accuracy, and if you’ve followed previous analyses, you’ve seen how precise these levels play out. If there’s any stock you want me to analyze next — even ones I don’t usually post — DM me and I’ll be happy to break it down for you.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
🧭 Weekly Chart — Big Picture Momentum
Tesla has printed one of the cleanest BOS (Break of Structure) patterns on the weekly timeframe since the post-2023 recovery, confirming that the macro downtrend has flipped into a sustained bullish expansion. The stock ripped from its $216 CHoCH base and is now consolidating above the prior macro breakout line near $425.
However, the latest weekly candle shows stalling momentum, forming a short-term distribution near the $430–$440 region. That zone lines up perfectly with the previous supply structure and fib confluence from 2022 highs.
The MACD histogram remains strongly positive but is beginning to flatten — early warning that buying pressure might be easing. Stoch RSI is also hovering near overbought at 85+, signaling the need for a short-term reset before the next leg.
* Bullish scenario: A weekly close above $436–$440 would confirm strength continuation toward $488–$500, the next liquidity zone.
* Bearish scenario: A close below $410 opens the door for a healthy pullback to $367–$376, a major equilibrium level with demand imbalance and previous BOS base.
Weekly takeaway: Trend remains bullish, but short-term overextension hints at a pause or mild retracement before another drive up.
⚙️ Daily Chart — Structure and Cooling Phase
The daily chart confirms Tesla’s minor pullback within the larger bullish wave. After breaking above $400 with strong momentum, price is now consolidating just above its breakout order block ($415–$420).
The BOS on daily shows continuation potential, but MACD has started printing red bars — suggesting that momentum is fading and a retest is underway. The Stoch RSI sitting high around 93 indicates the correction may continue until momentum rebalances.
* Bullish case: If TSLA can hold $416 and print a higher low, the next upside targets are $442 → $455, then $488 (supply zone).
* Bearish case: A daily close below $414 would invalidate near-term bullish control, triggering a slide toward $400–$397, a major demand block that aligns with GEX PUT support.
Daily summary: Still in bullish structure, but short-term retracement needed for healthy continuation. Watch for $415 hold as pivot.
⏱ 1-Hour Chart — Trading Plan
On the 1-hour chart, TSLA is forming a short-term consolidation wedge between $420 and $436 after multiple CHoCH and BOS flips. The stock is bouncing between mid-range liquidity pockets, showing clear indecision from both sides.
MACD is recovering from a previous bearish cycle, while Stoch RSI has crossed up from mid-levels — showing early signs of a micro-bounce in progress. Volume confirms that buyers are active at $424–$425 zone, but strong resistance remains near $436–$440.
Trading Plan:
* Bullish setup: Enter above $436 breakout with target $445 → $455, stop at $425.
* Bearish setup: Short if $420 fails with downside target $405 → $400, stop at $430.
This structure allows swing-to-scalp flexibility — traders can lean bullish above $425 but must stay cautious until price reclaims $436 decisively.
💥 Options GEX & Institutional Positioning
Based on the Options GEX [PRO] chart:
* Highest Call Wall: $450 — heavy resistance and likely magnet if bulls push higher.
* Next positive GEX zone: $445, where gamma flips positive and market makers chase delta hedges upward.
* Major PUT Wall: $400 — strong defense area, aligning perfectly with chart structure and demand.
* IVR 25.7 / IVx 67.7 → volatility premium moderate, favoring directional plays with limited spreads.
Gamma interpretation: As long as price holds between $425–$440, market makers maintain positive gamma, keeping price pinned and range-bound. A clean breakout above $440 could trigger a gamma squeeze toward $455–$460.
🎯 Option Strategy Ideas
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Play:
* Buy $430C / Sell $450C (Oct 25 expiry) — risk ~$6 for a potential $14 reward if Tesla rallies to $450+.
* Aggressive intraday: Buy 0DTE/2DTE $430 Calls only if price reclaims $436 with volume.
2️⃣ Bearish Hedge:
* Buy $420P / Sell $400P (Oct 18 expiry) — ideal if $420 support fails and correction deepens.
3️⃣ Neutral Income Strategy:
* Expecting chop between $420–$440? Sell Iron Condor ($440C/$450C and $410P/$400P) to profit from time decay.
💬 Final Thoughts
Tesla remains one of the strongest setups in the market — the bullish macro trend is intact, but current levels are stretched. Expect sideways or minor correction before another breakout attempt. The $415–$425 area is the key battleground: lose it, and we test $400; reclaim $436+, and the rocket’s back on for $455–$480.
My TA continues to show high win-rate accuracy, and if you’ve followed previous analyses, you’ve seen how precise these levels play out. If there’s any stock you want me to analyze next — even ones I don’t usually post — DM me and I’ll be happy to break it down for you.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Trade active
Here’s your quick TSLA update for tomorrow’s trading session (Oct 16, 2025) based on your 15-minute chart setup:Tesla (TSLA) – Tight Wedge Before a Move 🚀
Current Price: $434.43 Session Range: $434.74 – $434.35
Market Structure
* The chart shows a tight symmetrical wedge forming after a CHoCH (Change of Character) near $436, signaling potential breakout compression.
* BOS (Break of Structure) at $429.9 from earlier today acts as downside liquidity, while the upper wedge resistance aligns with $436 – $438 zone.
Key Levels
* Resistance: $436.75 → $440.50 (major supply zone)
* Support: $429.00 → $426.35 → $420.36 (demand block)
* Breakout Targets:
* Bullish: Above $437 could open $440 → $444.
* Bearish: Below $429 could trigger $426 → $420 zone.
Indicators
* MACD: Bearish crossover but flattening; momentum decreasing — potential for a rebound if histogram flips blue again.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold region (6.50 / 8.54) — signals early reversal potential if price reclaims $435+.
* Volume: Light in after-hours; expect volatility pickup near market open.
Trade Plan
* Bullish Scenario: Watch for breakout above $436.75 with retest confirmation → target $440/$444.
* Stop-loss: below $433.
* Bearish Scenario: Reject near $436 and lose $429 → short toward $426/$420.
* Stop-loss: above $437.
Outlook
TSLA is coiling tightly — expect directional breakout during the first 1–2 hours tomorrow. Bias leans bullish as long as it holds above $433, but macro cues (SPY/NQ) will heavily influence direction.
Trade closed: target reached
TSLA printed a Change of Character (CHoCH) after defending the $433–$434 demand zone. Price reclaimed trendline support and is now testing the intraday resistance near $436.8–$437.0.The Break of Structure (BOS) earlier signaled the completion of the previous down leg.
Buyers are attempting a higher low setup around $435.1 — this zone is critical to hold for continuation.
Momentum favors bulls as long as $435 holds — this could evolve into a short-term trend reversal setup targeting the $440 area. Watch volume confirmation at $437 breakout.
Note
TSLA – Intraday Breakdown Underway 🚨Tesla just flipped bearish after rejecting the $436–$438 zone and printing a clean CHoCH to the downside. Momentum has turned red across MACD and EMAs, confirming short-term control by sellers.
Price is now testing $431 support — if that fails, next target sits around $426.
Watch for a possible scalp bounce only if buyers reclaim $435+, otherwise trend remains down.
Short-term bias: Bearish below $433.5 · Next support $430 → $426.
This update is for educational purposes only — trade safe and follow your plan.
Note
If you shorted TSLA this morning — congrats 🎯Your target’s been hit perfectly. Secure profits and stay patient for the next setup.
Note
Update for Friday Oct. 17TSLA’s current structure is a battle between $425 support and $440 resistance.
If $420 breaks, momentum likely accelerates lower — but if buyers step in near this zone with volume, this could mark the start of a technical reload for the next breakout.
Keep eyes on the $425–$420 band — it’s where momentum shifts will decide the next 3-day trend.
Note
Update this morningIt trading around $438.14, up +2.19% — solid follow-through after the clean breakout from $420.50.
The rising channel is being respected, and price is now testing the midline near $439–$440.
The latest candle shows a small pause (minor pullback), but overall structure remains bullish.
Note
Intraday trading for today:Levels to Watch
Immediate Resistance:
$439.35 → intraday resistance being tested now.
$444.00 → upper trendline target zone.
Support:
$428.75 → breakout retest level (solid support).
$420.50 → key demand zone if deeper pullback occurs.
Outlook & Setup
Bias remains bullish while above $428.75.
Expect a small consolidation between $435–$440 before attempting to push toward $444–$445.
If rejected at $440, look for a healthy pullback toward $432–$430 for potential re-entry.
Trade Plan
Long (Continuation):
Entry: Above $440.50 with confirmation.
Target: $444 → $448.
Stop: Below $432.
Scalp Pullback:
Entry: Near $432–$430 support if momentum cools.
Target: $438–$440 retest.
Stop: Below $428.
TSLA remains bullish, momentum intact. Expect a small breather near $440 before the next push higher. Watch for confirmation if bulls aim for the $444–$448 range.
Note
TSLA Midday Setup — Holding Key Support - Oct. 20Tesla is stabilizing around the $441–$443 zone after a sharp morning pullback from $449. A CHoCH formed near $441, hinting at a short-term base building.
Support: $441 → $440
Resistance: $445 → $449.8
MACD: Turning up slowly
Stoch RSI: Rebounding from oversold
As long as $440 holds, bulls still have a chance to reclaim momentum toward $449+. A break below $440 could shift control back to bears toward $437–$435.
Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish — watching $445 breakout zone.
Note
Daily Chart Update Oct. 22 — Holding the Channel, Eyeing a Breakout Zone 🚗⚡️It continues to respect its rising channel structure, currently trading around $329.36 (+1.35%). The stock is holding a tight consolidation range near the midline, suggesting buyers are still defending this level.
Price Structure:
It remains in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows intact. The near-term resistance sits around $381–$383, while key support lies near $297–$300, aligning with the channel’s lower trendline and previous demand zone.
Momentum & Indicators:
MACD: Bearish momentum has cooled off, and histogram bars are now contracting — hinting at a potential bullish crossover if strength continues this week.
Stoch RSI: Rising from oversold territory (currently ~63), showing early signs of renewed momentum building up.
Outlook:
A daily close above $367.7 would likely confirm continuation toward $381, then $442.6 if volume follows through.
Losing $297 could invite a deeper retest toward $215–$220 range, which aligns with the lower support zone from earlier this year.
My Take:
It looks like it’s recharging for the next move — either a strong continuation toward $381+ or a pullback if it fails to hold above the channel midpoint. Momentum is turning, but confirmation is key. Watch for breakout volume in the next few sessions.
Note
Intraday Update (Oct 24)TSLA continues to trade inside a descending channel, showing clear bearish control with consistent lower highs and lower lows. The structure has formed a CHoCH → BOS sequence near $438, signaling sellers still defending resistance levels.
* Current Price: $438.26
* Market Structure: Still bearish, consolidating under the descending trendline.
* BOS Confirmation: $438–$439 area confirmed bearish continuation after a failed retest of $441 resistance.
* CHoCH Reaction: Slight intraday bounce attempt, but momentum remains weak as price stays below $441.
* MACD: Flattening after a bearish push — short-term relief possible, but still below zero line suggesting sellers remain in control.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold region — may support a short-term intraday bounce before continuation lower.
Key Levels to Watch
* Resistance: $441.50 → $445.70 (channel midline and supply zone).
* Support: $437.80 → $434.00 (local demand area).
* Breakdown Risk: A clean move below $434 could open the door to a flush toward $430–$428 liquidity zone.
It remains in a controlled downtrend until it breaks above the descending trendline near $441–$442 with strong momentum. If buyers can reclaim that level, it may shift bias toward a short-term reversal play. Otherwise, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the $432–$430 support range.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.