TSLA looks like a classic post-rally consolidation after that sharp pop from late September lows around $340. The candlesticks show solid volume on the upside thrusts (those red-to-green hammers mid-September), but we're seeing some profit-taking wicks lately, with the price hugging that rising EMA channel (orange line) around $410 support. That unfilled gap down at $396-$402 (from early October open?) is screaming "magnet" if we get any broader market weakness—gaps like that on high-beta names like TSLA often fill on light-volume Fridays, especially with no major catalysts this week.
The gap is likely to close 70% of the times in 30 day span.
What to Expect by EOD Friday (Oct 17)
No earnings till Oct 22, so this week's all about macro vibes (Fed chatter, CPI print Wed) and TSLA-specific noise like Robotaxi buzz or delivery whispers. Q3 deliveries hit 462k on Oct 2 (beat estimates), so that's baked in—focus shifts to affordable model teases.
Base Case (60% odds): Sideways grind to $415-425. We're in that expected move band of ±6% (~$388-438 from here). Light volume mid-week could keep us coiling in the channel; that gap stays open unless we dump on risk-off. Analysts are meh short-term (avg target $361, but that's 1Y noise), but one shop just hiked to $483. I'd fade any spike above $420 for a quick scalp—RSI's overbought on 1H.
Bull Case (25% odds): Push to $430+. X crowd's frothing—folks calling ATH break by 10/17 on "unstoppable momentum" and 5Y consolidation snap to $500. If CPI undershoots and Elon tweets FSD gold, we tag resistance. One forecast pegs exactly $425 EOW.
Bear Case (15% odds): Gap fill to $400. Volatility spikes if yields rip higher or China EV FUD hits (ZEV credit chatter ending soon). That purple MACD histogram's flattening—watch for divergence.
The gap is likely to close 70% of the times in 30 day span.
What to Expect by EOD Friday (Oct 17)
No earnings till Oct 22, so this week's all about macro vibes (Fed chatter, CPI print Wed) and TSLA-specific noise like Robotaxi buzz or delivery whispers. Q3 deliveries hit 462k on Oct 2 (beat estimates), so that's baked in—focus shifts to affordable model teases.
Base Case (60% odds): Sideways grind to $415-425. We're in that expected move band of ±6% (~$388-438 from here). Light volume mid-week could keep us coiling in the channel; that gap stays open unless we dump on risk-off. Analysts are meh short-term (avg target $361, but that's 1Y noise), but one shop just hiked to $483. I'd fade any spike above $420 for a quick scalp—RSI's overbought on 1H.
Bull Case (25% odds): Push to $430+. X crowd's frothing—folks calling ATH break by 10/17 on "unstoppable momentum" and 5Y consolidation snap to $500. If CPI undershoots and Elon tweets FSD gold, we tag resistance. One forecast pegs exactly $425 EOW.
Bear Case (15% odds): Gap fill to $400. Volatility spikes if yields rip higher or China EV FUD hits (ZEV credit chatter ending soon). That purple MACD histogram's flattening—watch for divergence.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.