From a historical perspective, it looks like recessions follow periods after the feds rate is cut.
Periods of technical recessions, where the technical definition is two negative GDP quarters):
Jan 1974 – Jun 1974 (Q1 & Q2 ’74)
Jan 1975 – Jun 1975 (Q1 & Q2 ’75)
Jan 1980 – Jun 1980 (Q1 & Q2 ’80)
Jul 1981 – Dec 1981 (Q3 & Q4 ’81)
Jul 1990 – Dec 1990 (Q3 & Q4 ’90)
Jan 2001 – Jun 2001 (Q1 & Q2 ’01)
Jul 2008 – Dec 2008 (Q3 & Q4 ’08)
Jan 2020 – Jun 2020 (Q1 & Q2 ’20)
Also with the stock market at ATHs it will be very interesting to see what occurs post rate cuts that are forecasted for the remainder of 2025, assets would like be super charged for a bullish tear.
Periods of technical recessions, where the technical definition is two negative GDP quarters):
Jan 1974 – Jun 1974 (Q1 & Q2 ’74)
Jan 1975 – Jun 1975 (Q1 & Q2 ’75)
Jan 1980 – Jun 1980 (Q1 & Q2 ’80)
Jul 1981 – Dec 1981 (Q3 & Q4 ’81)
Jul 1990 – Dec 1990 (Q3 & Q4 ’90)
Jan 2001 – Jun 2001 (Q1 & Q2 ’01)
Jul 2008 – Dec 2008 (Q3 & Q4 ’08)
Jan 2020 – Jun 2020 (Q1 & Q2 ’20)
Also with the stock market at ATHs it will be very interesting to see what occurs post rate cuts that are forecasted for the remainder of 2025, assets would like be super charged for a bullish tear.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.