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Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin Crash + Largest altcoin analysis requests! (ask me)Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response! Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. I start my analysis with Bitcoin. Currently, I expect a drop to 85k. We have a total of 3 unfilled FVGs (fair value gaps) below the current price, and this is a big deal. These gaps pretty much always tend to be filled. These are no gaps that occurred at the start of the uptrend (near 15k in 2022), but almost before the end of the uptrend (85k in 2024). This is a hugeeeee problem, and I assure you that bitcoin will go down sooner rather than later.  Today we also want to look at the RSI indicator. The RSI indicator is important mostly only on the 1m, 1H, 1D, 1W, and 1M charts. Do not use it on, for example, 15m or 2h charts. On the RSI indicator, we can see a bearish divergence because the price is making a higher high while the indicator is making a lower high. That's a huge sign of weakness. Also, let's take a look at the moving averages. This is the daily chart, so let's use 50, 100, and 200. These periods are very popular among huge institutions and hedge funds. They mainly like to use 200 and 20. As we can see, the price is too far away from them, which is a sign that the market is overbought and we should wait for a correction. You want to buy at the support, not when the market has already made the move. Currently I am bearish on Bitcoin. Profit target 1: 92,250, profit target 2: 85,350. Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Xanrox
282
Sell EUR/USD Channel BrekoutThe EUR/USD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0482 2nd Support – 1.0445 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
25
GOLD → False breakout of resistance. Is a correction coming?FX:XAUUSD on the background of CPI on Thursday passes into a rally and realization of consolidation. The price is testing the resistance of 2721 and forms a false breakout. Traders in anticipation of PPI After the release of CPI, there is a 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% next week. Gold hit a two-week high due to the Middle East, optimism over China's economic stimulus, CPI news. PPI and weekly jobless claims data also remain in focus, which could provide new hints on further Fed policy easing and the direction of the US dollar ahead of next week's Fed meeting. Sentiment around the Fed and risk trends will continue to play a decisive role in gold price dynamics. Technically, the price is in a global wide flat. A false breakdown of resistance is forming and a correction may form. Resistance levels: 2721 Support levels: 2700, 2682 The retest did not allow the bulls to pass through the resistance. In the near future the price may test the nearest support and form a bullish correction from which further growth or fall will be initiated. We should also take into account today's news Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
10
Trading the Santa Rally: How to Ride the Supposed Year-End SurgeThe Santa Rally — a festive event characterized by silent nights and active markets. Every December, traders whisper about it with a mix of excitement and skepticism. But what exactly is this supposed year-end market surge? Is it a gift from the markets or just a glittery myth? Let’s unwrap the truth. 🎅 What Is the Santa Rally? The Santa Rally refers to the tendency for stock markets to rise during the last few trading days of December and sometimes even the first few days of January. It’s like a financial advent calendar, but instead of dark chocolate, traders hope for green candles. The origins of this term aren’t entirely clear, but the event is widely observed. Analysts cite everything from holiday cheer to quarter-end, year-end portfolio adjustments as possible reasons. But beware — like a wrongly wrapped gift, the rally doesn’t always deliver what you expect. 🎄 Fact or Festive Fiction? The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly): Historical data does show that markets have a knack to perform well during the Santa Rally window. For instance, the S&P 500 SPX has delivered positive returns in about 75% of the observed periods since 1950. That’s better odds than guessing who’s going to win the “Ugly Sweater Contest” at the office. Not Guaranteed: However, let’s not confuse correlation with causation. While historical trends are nice to know, the market isn’t obliged to follow tradition. Geopolitical events, Fed decisions, or even a rogue tweet can easily knock this rally off course (especially now with the returning President-elect). 🚀 Why Does the Santa Rally Happen? 1️⃣ Holiday Cheer : Investors, like everyone else, might be more optimistic during the holidays, leading to increased buying momentum. After all, not many things can say “joy to the world” like a bullish portfolio. 2️⃣ Tax-Loss Harvesting : Fund managers sell off losing positions in early December to offset gains for tax purposes. By the end of the month, they’re reinvesting, potentially pushing prices higher. 3️⃣ Low Liquidity : With many big players sipping mezcal espresso martinis on the Amalfi coast, trading volumes drop. Lower liquidity can amplify price movements, making small buying pressure feel like a full-blown rally. 4️⃣ New Year Optimism : Who doesn’t love a fresh start? Many traders sign off for the quarter on a positive, upbeat note and begin setting up positions for the year ahead, adding to upward swings. ⛄️ The Myth-Busting Clause While these factors seem plausible, not every Santa Rally is a blockbuster. For example, in years of significant economic uncertainty or bearish sentiment, the holiday spirit alone isn’t enough to lift the market. 🌟 How to Trade the Santa Rally (Without Getting Grinched) 1️⃣ Set Realistic Expectations : Don’t expect a moonshot. The Santa Rally is more of a sleigh ride than a rocket launch. Focus on small, tactical trades instead of betting the farm on a rally (and yes, crypto included). 2️⃣ Watch Key Sectors : Historically, consumer discretionary and tech stocks often perform well during this period. Consider these areas, but always do your due diligence. 3️⃣ Manage Your Risk : With low liquidity, volatility can spike unexpectedly. Tighten your stop-losses and avoid overleveraging — Santa doesn’t cover margin calls. 4️⃣ Keep an Eye on Macro Events : Is the Fed hinting at rate cuts (hint: yes it is )? Is inflation stealing the spotlight (hint: yes it is )? These can overshadow any seasonal trends. ☄️ Crypto and Forex: Does Santa Visit Here Too? The Santa Rally isn’t exclusive to stocks. Forex markets can also see year-end movements as hedge funds, banks and other institutional traders close out currency positions. Meanwhile, traders in the crypto market have gotten used to living in heightened volatility not just during the holidays but at any time of the year. More recently, Donald Trump’s win was a major catalyst for an absolute beast of an updraft. 🎁 Closing Thoughts: Naughty or Nice? The Santa Rally is a fascinating mix of tradition, psychology, and market mechanics. While it’s fun to believe in a market jolly, it’s better to stay prepared for anything out of the ordinary. So, are you betting on a rally this year, or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s discuss — drop your thoughts in the comments below and tell us how you’re planning to trade the year-end rush! 🎅📈
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
1
GOLD → False breakout and negative fundamental backgroundFX:XAUUSD is correcting after a false breakout of resistance. This is also supported by negative fundamentals. Will there be a pullback or will the decline continue? Optimism over China's economic stimulus is waning amid growing fears of a trade war between the US and China. Expectations of a hawkish Fed interest rate next week helped boost the US dollar, leading to a corrective decline in the gold price.Markets now believe the Fed may send a hawkish signal by signaling a pause in January after PPI came in higher than expected Technically gold is still inside the channel, consolidation continues. Focus on 2658-2660 support, below which there is a huge pool of liquidity that may not let the price down on the first try Resistance levels: 2675, 2682, 2699 Support levels: 2658, 2636 From the support 2658 may form a correction from which will depend on the further development of events: if the correction will be small and the price will quickly return to 2658, it will increase the chances of support breakout and further fall, for example, to 2636. But, if gold can consolidate above 2682 and consolidate above the local high, the price may head for a retest of the high Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
1
GOLD AWAITING FOR INTEREST RATE CUTSGOLDEN PLAN: 13-Dec-2024 / Friday Personal comments by Pips & Profit: The price has recovered positively during the week around 2700, sideways and accumulated further. Awaiting for information about interest rate cut in December 2024. PLAN FOR THE DAY: Sell Gold Zone 2701-2704 SL: 2709 (Scalp Entry) TPs: 2695 / 2690 / 2680 Sell Gold Zone 2715-2722 SL: 2728 TPs: 2709 / 2698 / 2688 Buy Gold Zone 2656-2653 SL: 2643 TPs: 2666 / 2678 / 2692 Let's support "Pips & Profit" by Like & Comments. Thanks Everyone.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by PIPS_n_PROFIT
3
GbpUsd- Where to sell?The GBP/USD currency pair has been in a downtrend for quite some time. Recently, however, after dropping just below the important psychological level of 1.25, the pair started to reverse and show some upward movement. While this rise is notable, it is important to recognize that it appears to be corrective in nature. The price is currently forming a rising wedge pattern, which typically signals that the uptrend may soon lose momentum. Based on this technical structure, I expect the downtrend to resume in the near future. In my opinion, any rallies above the 1.28 level should be viewed as potential selling opportunities. A stop loss placed above the 1.29 level would ensure a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3 could be achieved if we target the recent low.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
2
SOLANA WHERE NEXT? (EARTHTRADER ANALYSIS)If you zoom in the the Lower time analysis of which I've taken a good profit from already lol, you can see the stress out in the bullish candles indicating exhaustion for potential reversal (well TV doesn't allow smaller timeframe chart ideas). I have drawn a potential trade levels, now what could be confusing to retail cryptotraders is the price action, looking very bullish with all patterns, but the up high lie the forest bears. LEAVE A FOLLOW!
Short
by earthtraderx
1
AVA/USDT – Will the Bulls or Bears Take Control?Yello Paradisers, let me ask you something: Are you prepared for what’s coming next with AVA? The current price action suggests we are standing at a critical juncture. This could make or break your short-term trading decisions. Let’s analyze the setup and see what the market has in store. 💎#AVAUSDT recently broke above a long-term downtrend resistance line that had limited its movements for months. This breakout was supported by strong buying momentum, pushing the price into key Fibonacci retracement zones derived from the previous downtrend. However, the market now finds itself in a pivotal phase where both buyers and sellers are aggressively fighting for dominance. 💎The price is currently hovering around $0.69, near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is acting as a pivot zone. Immediate resistance lies at $0.74 (Fib 0.236), where selling pressure is evident, while strong support has formed at $0.64 (Fib 0.5). If the bears gain control and break below this support, the next critical support level is $0.5494 and a failure there could send AVA toward $0.53 (Fib 0.786) or even $0.45, which coincides with previous liquidity zones. 💎On the bullish side, reclaiming $0.74 could spark a fresh rally, pushing #AVA toward the psychological resistance at $0.83. For this to happen, buyers need to step in and defend the higher low structure forming above $0.69. Such a move would solidify bullish continuation and open the door to further upside in the weeks to come. Right now, patience is critical. #AVA is sitting at a key crossroads, and the next decisive move will determine its direction for the near term. Waiting for clear breakouts or breakdowns at these levels will provide the highest probability trades. Remember, impulsive decisions in such setups often lead to losses. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise_Simon
3
Bitcoin ($BTC): Quick Scalping Opportunity on the 15-MinuteI spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more. Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ): Quick Scalping Opportunity on the 15-Minute Timeframe Trade Setup: Entry Price: $99,689.03 Stop-Loss: $99,333.32 Take-Profit Target: TP1: $101,253.62 Fundamental Analysis: Bitcoin remains the leading cryptocurrency, continuing to dominate market sentiment and price action. While this is a short-term trade, BTC’s role as a store of value and hedge against fiat instability underpins its market strength. Technical Analysis (15-Minute Timeframe): Current Price: $99,800.20 Moving Averages: 20-EMA: $99,750.00 50-EMA: $99,600.00 Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 54, signaling neutral momentum. Support and Resistance Levels: Support: $99,500.00 Resistance: $100,000.00 Market Sentiment: BTC’s price action on low timeframes is being driven by active trading volumes, with traders positioning for a breakout. The psychological $100,000 level is key; if breached, it could lead to rapid price movement toward the take-profit target. Risk Management: A stop-loss at $99,333.32 minimizes downside risk, while the take-profit target at $101,253.62 offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Given the short timeframe, discipline in execution is crucial. When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, Just Ride the Wave! Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Long
by SiriusTrading
4
XRP/USD-Trading in a Buy Trend: Key Points for Successful EntryThe price is in a buy trend on the 1-hour time frame (TF) and has bounced off the zone. We can now wait for the price to return or get closer to the zone. After a bounce on a smaller time frame, we can look for an entry into a buy position. However, we need to be cautious of a potential false breakout, so it's important to wait for proper confirmation. If a false breakout triggers our stop loss, we can re-enter when the price moves back above the zone with confirmation for a buy position.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by EliteFxAcademy_CRYPTO
2
PanCake swap (cake)Cake usdt Daily analysis Time frame daily Risk rewards ratio >1.7 👈👌 Target 7.4 PancakeSwap’s “head chef” declared that the BSC-based DEX is retaining the deflationary tokenomics for its native CAKE token. The announcement comes as other DEXs are trying new incentives for staking their native assets. The leading DEX on Binance Smart Chain is making a return amid a general DeFi recovery, and it shared that it will retain CAKE as a deflationary token to retain its value. The DEX decided against using CAKE as an incentive token, instead renewing its tokenomics based on regular burns and deflation. CAKE has a 1-2% annual burn rate and a negative net growth in the past 12 months. PancakeSwap also has regular weekly burns, which give a glimpse into the activity and fees generated on several PancakeSwap markets, including predictions and NFTs.
Long
by Habib-Tafazoli
1
Questions Halving Promotors Never Want to Answer Many people here are eager to explain the bets people should make based on the halving but they're never willing to answer the obvious questions about the hypothesis. Here's a collection of questions I must have asked here 100 times in replies to my posts that I've still not gotten an answer to: Why the indices correlation? When you run an analysis on SPX price moves and BTC price moves post halving, they have a coefficient of 0.85. This means all the statistical evidence points towards BTC moving in tandem with risk on/off cycles in equities. ----- Why do people ignore this correlation when it is as reliable (or more) than the halving? Why does the exact same moves in indices and BTC get treated totally differently? When has the halving thesis ever deviated from simple SPX correlation? If there are no deviations, why isn't it best to assume it's related to SPX tracking? ----- Why would the entire market know an event to move price higher was coming and then wait an exact number of days to take action on that? If you've been in the market any length of time you'll have surely heard the saying "Buy the rumour, sell the news". You may have also heard, "Markets prefer to travel than suddenly arrive". This has been a guiding principle of all markets for all time. Why is the halving a "Sell the known coming event, then ignore the news for x days and then buy the event after the fact? ----- Given all halving dates are already known, why isn't this priced in now? Why in the biggest FOMO market there is would there be this organised "Waiting period"? Why has game theory and market dynamics not led to front running? How do these supply/demand dynamics reflect anything about S/D known in markets? ----- What are the failure conditions of the halving bet? I have some of the dumbest convos on this. People insist I MUST BE LONG NOW to not miss out on the halving and then when I ask them what level price can not go under inside of the halving theory ... it gets real fuzzy. And when you dig into it, the answer generally ends up being "Up to 70% drawdown".... Okay - so trying a short here is fine inside of that, right? ----- Why are people making all knowing statements about exactly what should happen and unable to give the most basic risk control? What happens to people who listen to you if you're wrong? Do you have plans to let them know if the theory fails? If not, why are you not telling them the risk if wrong is 70% (Inside of accepted risk). And I suppose the idea is to just entirely ignore the limitless risk if the whole thesis is wrong? ----- When has the BTC halving idea ever overcome a SPX drop? I've been told various times in 2020 there was a deviation from the halving cycle because there was a swan event. Fair enough ... but then this means that the halving forecast will only be right if nothing broadly bearish happens, right? In any instances where we've had halving theory vrs indices bear move - following the indices has won. ----- Why is this not considered evidence against the thesis and for the correlation? Why are you not caveating your forecasts with this known risk? Is it far to say the BTC cycles thesis can easily fail if there's outside events? ----- These things simply do not make sense. They're elephants in the room. People act like the cycles thing is some sort of esoteric knowledge that only a select few know. That's nonsense. I have a kid cousin who can't tie his shoelaces yet but can tell you what the halving forecast is. He does not really understand everything he's saying. He's just repeating things he's heard ... but, that's kinda true for most of you to be honest. Because it takes about 5 mins to understand the halving thesis. Takes about another 1 min to come up with the obvious tests and objections and then maybe takes 10 mins to test those and highlight the flaws. There are some people who've spent literally hours and hours on my posts berating me about why I should be blindly following the halving and in all of this time they've not answered the questions I think should be thought of in the first minute. And I do ask them. Directly and repeatedly. They change the topic or go quiet. To be honest, most of the time they start to drop insults. It's wild, when you think about it. "I am heralding in the future of finance and here to tell you about this halving cycle which I know everything about and expect to be infallible". "Okay. Could you answer a few questions I have about this?" "LMAO. Have fun staying poor". === Think about how disconnected the way BTC bulls act is relative to what they proport to be a part of. Why are you not eager to answer these common sense questions?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by holeyprofit
1
Gold Supported by Fundamentals, Testing Key Technical ResistanceTechnical Analysis Gold is trading at $2,719, approaching a critical resistance level at $2,735 (Fib 0.786). A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for further upside toward $2,743 and $2,758, marking significant levels for long-term trend continuation. On the daily chart, the price has held firmly above the 50-day SMA, supported by a bullish RSI, indicating the potential for continued strength. - Key Resistances : - $2,735 (Fib 0.786). - $2,743 and $2,758. - Key Supports : - $2,700 (short-term support). - $2,693 (Fib 0.618). In the short term, gold has encountered resistance at $2,720 and shows signs of a possible pullback. The RSI in the overbought zone suggests that a correction toward $2,700 and potentially $2,693 is likely before any continuation to the upside. --- Fundamental Analysis Gold prices remain near two-week highs, supported by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Markets are now pricing a 95% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed next week , per the CME FedWatch tool, with a further 22% chance of another cut in January. Key Developments Driving Gold: 1. Chinese Central Bank Gold Buying: The People's Bank of China resumed gold purchases in November, adding 160,000 fine troy ounces to its reserves. This significant move has bolstered global gold demand and added upward momentum to prices. 2. Middle East Geopolitical Tensions: The collapse of the Syrian government and subsequent military actions by Israel have increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. 3. US Inflation Data (CPI): November's CPI data showed a 2.7% YoY increase, aligning with expectations and reinforcing the case for rate cuts. The core inflation rate remained stable at 3.3%. These figures have kept gold's bullish momentum intact. --- Upcoming Data to Watch The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the US, scheduled for release tomorrow, will provide further clues about inflation trends. - Forecasts: - Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.3%). - PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%). - Unemployment Claims: 221K (previous: 224K). Potential Scenarios for PPI: 1. Stronger-than-expected PPI (above 0.2%): Higher PPI could indicate persistent inflationary pressures, potentially boosting the US Dollar and pressuring gold prices lower. In this case, gold may test short-term supports at $2,700 or $2,693. 2. Weaker-than-expected PPI (below 0.2%): A weaker PPI could further strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, weakening the US Dollar and providing additional upside for gold. A breakout above $2,735 would open the path toward $2,743 and $2,758. --- Conclusion Gold remains strong in the long term, with $2,735 as a critical resistance level. A breakout above this level could trigger a rally to $2,743 and $2,758. However, in the short term, the price is expected to correct to $2,700 or $2,693 before resuming its uptrend. The upcoming PPI report is pivotal and will shape market sentiment ahead of the Fed's rate decision next week. Recommendation Monitor the PPI report and Fed commentary closely. A pullback to $2,700 may offer a buying opportunity, with targets set at $2,743 and $2,758 if bullish momentum persists.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by uPaSKaL
4