holeyprofit

holeyprofit

This is a forecast of what it would look like if SPX went into a full bear break now which was compliant with the norms of historic crashes. It’s a sequential trade plan. Which means as one swing hits it supports betting on the next swing in the pattern. If swings do not hit - it was wrong is no longer useful. Full Crash Forecast: Subscribers, go to this...

holeyprofit

We're extremely close to what I'd consider to be a very important bear break - but we've not yet broken. As a general rule of thumb, the best value trades are the ones closest to where they fail. Have really big SPX longs on now with stops just under the weekly low. Looking for this to hold a double bottom if the long is working. Pattern here currently looks...

holeyprofit

Have a friend who's been asking me for 6 months if it's a good time to go long bonds and consistently I've said it looks early. But if there's going to be a time to go long bonds, I think now is the time. Stops a bit under the current lows

holeyprofit

Had this mapped up for a while and been waiting to see if it fills. Oddly, this filled recently in what turned out to be a false quote and then a days later made he real rally. If the harmonic plays out, we'd be in the top of yield - a least for this swing.

holeyprofit

Problems with China are all over the news now with Evergrande filing for bankruptcy and opening down 90%. Is any of the previous examples of this are anything to go by, Evergrande goes up a few 100% now. That's what's the norm - as crazy as it sounds. Looking at the China indices, they currently hold 76 supports. This is a real make or break level for them. If...

holeyprofit

Been watching this one a while. My friend bought this back in November when he correctly called the indices low and - well, DIS was not the best pick to express his bet. But because of this I've been watching it and I like it now. I'll have a try on the butterfly low.

holeyprofit

I believe US equities are in a bubble. It looks starkly obvious to me. But I've bet on bubbles many times. I've always ended up being right but sometimes they went substantially higher first. This is an update to a previous forecast of what it would look like if we were in a bubble top now. As an example of what it can be like if you're early on a bubble, I...

holeyprofit

I think this is setting up another dump but am very interested in longs in the 4200 area. Pending orders set for there. Probably a full pivot on net bull bias if this area breaks.

holeyprofit

I think we probably made an important breakout at 500. Much is made of the selling since then this this would be absolutely typical in a bull move. It can comfortably go lower inside of a simple trend continuation pattern. When I've posted bull analysis on NVDA recently people have screamed at me it's a bubble - and I agree, it looks a lot like a bubble. But,...

holeyprofit

I think we may be close to a bit of a crash in USD relative to the 2021 rally. If we are 85 looks like a great spot for this to go to. Possibly make a major reversal back to being ultra bullish USD at that level - if that level breaks, I might have to revise plans to have a much bigger short USD trade plan. Multiple majors trading at SR levels now. Good shout...

holeyprofit

Corrections usually end at 76 fibs and usually the first pullback from that should end a the 61 fib. At this point, we can buy NKE with a stop under the 76. If we’re right, we should see i go green and say green soon after the entry. Trading Signal Long 98 Stop 74 Target 442

holeyprofit

There's a lot of speculation NVDA is overextended and, well I can see their point. But maybe through the last years we have had waves 1 and 2 of Elliot. Which would mean we're in wave 3 and in wave 3 "Overextended" does not really exist. A super consistent trend is what is the norm. Wave 3's are incredibly easy trends to follow but a lot of the time in wave 3...

holeyprofit

I'm a bear. If you've not started following me recently you'll know this. Presented detailed macro bear analysis in 2021 and 2022. Nailed a lot of good moves in 2021/2022 and got the memo it was a bad time to be short early 2023. Since then I've spoken mainly short term bull plans - but overall I am a bear. I just know there's a time to bear and a time to let...

holeyprofit

PLTR was one of my favourite picks for a short in 2021. The setups were really obvious seeming to me and the pushback against the idea was absolutely intense (Especially for a stock that was already in a downtrend). Previous targets of 10: And 5: All targets hit and a strong bounce off the lower target. This might be leg one of Elliot complete.

holeyprofit

Follow up to: It seems like so long ago, but in 2021 if you posted short analysis on things like BTC and PLTR people would legitimately mock you saying, "You must think you know better than Cathie Wood (And her team of analysts). In retrospect, they were not all that tough to beat. But I think maybe the "Pain is in the price" now, as they say. I'm willing to...

holeyprofit

Here's a good general rule for things that go hyper parabolic and then crash. -They'll typically come down 80 - 90%. - The crash will typically end after spiking out where the parabolic phase begins. Once these have happened, there's speculative value long and extreme warnings for shorts. PYPL has these conditions in place and also has an AB=CD into the...

holeyprofit

At this point I am not entirely convinced my overall bear thesis is correct. I am starting to think I may have been able to use a set of good signals to work out high probability resistance levels in 2021 which have produced good shorts but were ultimately pullback levels rather than top levels. The big bear thesis has not failed yet. I do still think there's a...

holeyprofit

Update to my previous series of bear forecasts on AMC in 2021: We've now completed all of the drop. We might have a butterfly low forming. There's all the hallmarks of a harmonic low in place (Dismal news etc). I like the RR here.