Buying a MSTR puts with 1 - 2 months on them with strikes scatted from 1200 - 1000. We've recently hit the 4.23 - which is a very common move for the end of an extreme extension. Coupled with the various possible rug setups in crypto I fancy the odds of a big reaction here.
If the premise of a trend reversal is going to come to pass we need to see rejection of the attempt to trade at a new high. The breakout looks much more promising now but when you look at a lot of tops you find many of them have wicks slightly above the high. I believe these are referred to as "One tick traps" (I just call them stop hunts). If the breakout can...
Follow up my previous post where I posed the question did the BTC uptrend break in 2022. I'd like to clarify points on common misconceptions that came up in the comments of the last post. If you'd like to just read current analysis skip to the line break. I'm Agnostic on BTC It's assumed bear thesis' on BTC are always linked with negative opinions of it....
If we're making a high I think we should see this rally rejecting some time soon. A break over this area would mean we're more likely to be bull. Would probably wait for a break of high and look to buy a retest. Will sit out if we chop. Can't be bothered scalping ranges. Usually really easy to make money in the BO after if we range. Read more about the 76...
Let me first say I don't want to argue with BTC bulls. All I want to do is to discuss the properties of trends. We happen to be relating them to BTC and happen to be looking at a bear trend. In the last new high and drop in BTC something new happened. BTC made a bog drop and when a new high was made there was no follow through extension. This was the first...
In the impressive historic breakouts we've usually seen BTC very strong out of the retest of the previous high. We're retesting this level now and what happens in the near future I think is likely to dictate action for a while. If we can make a clean break of the high a new uptrend is on and if the attempts at it end in wicks that can be warnings of a bigger...
OBV stands for On-Balance Volume, which is a technical analysis indicator used by traders and investors to measure buying and selling pressure in a market. It was developed by Joseph Granville in the 1960s. Granville's theory was only a small number of big players are really important in the market. What they do is going to decide price. Conversely, the smaller...
PLTR has now returned all the way to the level of my first bear forecast of it dropping to under 10. Almost hitting the second forecast target of under 5 (5.8 low, did miss by a bit). And now hitting the target level for the long trade from the lows. We're recently parabolic and spiking out a 1.61 fib. A lot of the times when this will reverse we won't...
The way most people speak about BTC and the things they do with it seem far more in line with me with a speculative bet than a viable currency. Here's some examples; I've never been told, "Accept BTC via payment gateways, or you'll miss out big". I'm always told I should, "Buy BTC or I'll miss out big". And this is correctly framed because I've had BTC...
It's easy to hate on inflation. The silent tax on the poor. The rich get to borrow the money into existence and spend it into the economy at a high value and then the process of borrowing money into existence creates a devaluation of the money by the time it reaches the general public on the lower levels. The theory on why this is meant to be good is known as...
ETGH hit the long term swing target posted in January a while ago. Since that time we've had the big 76 retest. Slight spike out of it and we currently hold the second test. In the instances where the 7 will hold, we'll not go back under it. This offers a good RR long op. We may have actually made a break of the 76 in the first run down, but even in these...
ETH trades at a massive confluence of resistance zone indicating we're likely to see a big trend decision in this soon. In this area we have the completion of a possible bearish head and shoulders, bearish crab and this is also a long term resistance from the fib extensions of the last major pullback. The head and shoulders and crab are both patterns which can...
In discussions with BTC bulls in a couple of posts I've had here recently it occurred to me many of them show signs of problem gambling. I mentioned this to them a few times and they told me BTC isn't gambling. But from the perspective of someone who's been in trading a long time, I think we'd define their attitude to risk as "Problem Gambling". Curious...
The classic bull trap pattern comes when we have an initial sell off. Some sort of retracement of that and then a failure to make a new high forming a capitulation pattern. Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template. However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems...
NVDA went into a large clear uptrend on the break of the 1.61 fib. This is something we see in Elliot wave uptrends. If you follow my regular postings day trading you'll see me trading 1.61 breaks all the time and it's always when we get to the 2xx and 3.20 fibs I am most active in trailing my stops, because big reversals can come from these levels. NVDA has...
Note - this analysis is entirely contingent upon a high being made here. A new high annuls the analysis. All this is doing is mapping out the typical swings we see in a break as part of prep for dealing with one if it comes. Betting the high is in here in speculative (I have puts, but it's a high RR setup). Follow up to: As discussed in the last post, there...
I feel like a lot of discussions I've had here recently are with people who know the future and/or the one true and correct way to make assessments of markets. I'm not a big believer in knowing the future and I do not know many people with over 5 yrs trading under their belt who is. I'd like to have a good old fashioned trading discussion, if anyone else is...
Strong down from the last posting saying we were into important supports. Targets on one of the first postings of GME short here hit in the last swing down, but these levels did not hold as support - which may spell out much more downside.