I like the RR at this level. Obviously there's the gap risk that makes the RR calculation less than perfect but I think we've reasonable chances of at least some sort of dead-cat bounce on BABA from these levels.
This has overshot my expected sell level a little but it looks like this might become a false breakout and we'll be into a butterfly pattern. Butterflies often can come with news events, so I'd not be surprised to see something of that nature. We need to get back down under 4350 but if we can get to trading 4330 sort of price I think it's highly likely we'll go on...
"Sooner or later a crash is coming and it may be terrific"
Rodger Babson - 1929.
And I think we're now onto the verge of where we might see our modern day break, and it might well be horrific. We've completed the first section of the break forecast linked and I think we might be starting to get into a far more serious break if we see indices breaking the lows...
If we see a rejection and a new low in the Nasdaq off this type of failed rally - we're probably going to see some serious selling into the down down swing. I think we'll see this down over 5% in the next move if we get under the low.
The stock break is becoming a credible threat.
Other than it not ranging in the start of the week, which caught me out, SPX has acted in line with the previous swing forecast and now we're into the potential drop zone. We're rallying hard off good news, which is something I tend to like selling into also.
It's scary, and surreal. I've watched this set up ever so slowly since 2018 when I first started to look for possible ending zones for a SPX rally. Now, we're here. Something big is due to happen. The US market is trading at a major inflection point. The most critical time in the US markets in at least the last 15 yrs - possibly in my lifetime.
Good luck, SPX. ...
I think we're soon going to head into the capitulation fall on BTC into around the 31K area. I already have a pending order at 31K and placing one at 25K for an overshoot. Both of the targets on these are 40K. From there I'd position short again.
Expecting a strong sell off and then a dead-cat bounce.
Been shorting SPX pretty much every bounce for the run down but I think it's due to see a bit of a rally now and some ranging for a while. Going long because I think there's good probability of the butterfly holding here. Also helps to cover my put options accumulated through the week if we bounce and range for a while. See my overall trade plan for SPX in linked ideas.