Bias: Mildly Bearish → Range-Bound
Expected Range: $55.50 – $60.00
Most Likely Zone: $57.00 – $59.00
---
1️⃣ Overall Market Viev
→ Bearish forces dominating
Global supply remains abundant: U.S. shale output steady, Brazil & Guyana rising.
OPEC+ cuts are not tight enough to flip sentiment to bullish.
Weak macro data in Europe/China continues to cap demand expectations.
→ No strong geopolitical premium right now
Markets are pricing no major disruption in Russian or Middle Eastern flows.
Without a risk premium, oil trades on fundamentals → which are soft.
→ Technical conditions
WTI still sits inside a descending channel, with repeated failures near $60.
Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) show lower highs → sellers remain in control.
---
2️⃣ Weekly Price Outlook
Base Case (60% probability): Mild Bearish Drift
WTI holds below $60, spends most of the week between $57–59.
Momentum gradually pulls price toward $56–57.
Range Case (30% probability): Sideways Trading
No strong catalysts this week → WTI chops inside $57–60.
Bullish Upside Surprise (10% probability)
Only likely if:
Large EIA draw
Major supply outage (pipeline, terminal, Russia/Turkey/Mideast)
OPEC+ signals stricter compliance
Would push WTI to $60.50–62.00.
---
3️⃣ Key Levels for the Week
Support
$57.00 → primary support
$55.50 → major weekly floor; break = trend acceleration lower
Resistance
$59.00 → first sell zone
$60.00–60.50 → big resistance; break needed to flip bullish
---
4️⃣ Catalysts to Watch This Week
📊 EIA Inventory Report (Midweek)
Bearish if: crude builds +1.5M or more; gasoline/distillate builds
Bullish if: crude draws –3M+ with strong product demand
🌍 Geopolitics
Russian export flows
Middle East shipping/lng/oil terminals
OPEC+ commentary (compliance, voluntary cuts)
📉 Macro Data
USD strength
US PMIs, jobs data
China industrial demand signals
---
⭐ Bottom Line
WTI is expected to remain under pressure this week, trading mostly in the $57–59 range with a downside bias toward $56. A breakout above $60 is unlikely unless a major bullish catalyst appears.
Expected Range: $55.50 – $60.00
Most Likely Zone: $57.00 – $59.00
---
1️⃣ Overall Market Viev
→ Bearish forces dominating
Global supply remains abundant: U.S. shale output steady, Brazil & Guyana rising.
OPEC+ cuts are not tight enough to flip sentiment to bullish.
Weak macro data in Europe/China continues to cap demand expectations.
→ No strong geopolitical premium right now
Markets are pricing no major disruption in Russian or Middle Eastern flows.
Without a risk premium, oil trades on fundamentals → which are soft.
→ Technical conditions
WTI still sits inside a descending channel, with repeated failures near $60.
Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) show lower highs → sellers remain in control.
---
2️⃣ Weekly Price Outlook
Base Case (60% probability): Mild Bearish Drift
WTI holds below $60, spends most of the week between $57–59.
Momentum gradually pulls price toward $56–57.
Range Case (30% probability): Sideways Trading
No strong catalysts this week → WTI chops inside $57–60.
Bullish Upside Surprise (10% probability)
Only likely if:
Large EIA draw
Major supply outage (pipeline, terminal, Russia/Turkey/Mideast)
OPEC+ signals stricter compliance
Would push WTI to $60.50–62.00.
---
3️⃣ Key Levels for the Week
Support
$57.00 → primary support
$55.50 → major weekly floor; break = trend acceleration lower
Resistance
$59.00 → first sell zone
$60.00–60.50 → big resistance; break needed to flip bullish
---
4️⃣ Catalysts to Watch This Week
📊 EIA Inventory Report (Midweek)
Bearish if: crude builds +1.5M or more; gasoline/distillate builds
Bullish if: crude draws –3M+ with strong product demand
🌍 Geopolitics
Russian export flows
Middle East shipping/lng/oil terminals
OPEC+ commentary (compliance, voluntary cuts)
📉 Macro Data
USD strength
US PMIs, jobs data
China industrial demand signals
---
⭐ Bottom Line
WTI is expected to remain under pressure this week, trading mostly in the $57–59 range with a downside bias toward $56. A breakout above $60 is unlikely unless a major bullish catalyst appears.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.