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Strategytesting

Signal-to-Noise Ratio: The Most Misunderstood Truth in Trading█ Signal-to-Noise Ratio: The Most Misunderstood Truth in Quant Trading Most traders obsess over indicators, signals, models, and strategies. But few ask the one question that defines whether any of it actually works: ❝ How strong is the signal — compared to the noise? ❞ Welcome to the concept of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) — the invisible force behind why some strategies succeed and most fail. █ What Is Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)? ⚪ In simple terms: Signal = the real, meaningful, repeatable part of a price move Noise = random fluctuations, market chaos, irrelevant variation SNR = Signal Strength / Noise Level If your signal is weak and noise is high, your edge gets buried. If your signal is strong and noise is low, you can extract alpha with confidence. In trading, SNR is like trying to hear a whisper in a hurricane. The whisper is your alpha. The hurricane is the market. █ Why SNR Matters (More Than Sharpe, More Than Accuracy) Most strategies die not because they’re logically flawed — but because they’re trying to extract signal in a low SNR environment. Financial markets are dominated by noise. The real edge (if it exists) is usually tiny and fleeting. Even strong-looking backtests can be false positives created by fitting noise. Every quant failure story you’ve ever heard — overfitting, false discoveries, bad AI models — starts with misunderstanding the signal-to-noise ratio. █ SNR in the Age of AI Machine learning struggles in markets because: Most market data has very low SNR The signal changes over time (nonstationarity) AI is powerful enough to learn anything — including pure noise This means unless you’re careful, your AI will confidently “discover” patterns that have no predictive value whatsoever. Smart quants don’t just train models. They fight for SNR — every input, feature, and label is scrutinized through this lens. █ How to Measure It (Sharpe, t-stat, IC) You can estimate a strategy’s SNR with: Sharpe Ratio: Signal = mean return, Noise = volatility t-Statistic: Measures how confident you are that signal ≠ 0 Information Coefficient (IC): Correlation between forecast and realized return 👉 A high Sharpe or t-stat suggests strong signal vs noise 👉 A low value means your “edge” might just be noise in disguise █ Real-World SNR: Why It's So Low in Markets The average daily return of SPX is ~0.03% The daily standard deviation is ~1% That's signal-to-noise of 1:30 — and that's for the entire market, not a niche alpha. Now imagine what it looks like for your scalping strategy, your RSI tweak, or your AI momentum model. This is why most trading signals don’t survive live markets — the noise is just too loud. █ How to Build Strategies With Higher SNR To survive as a trader, you must engineer around low SNR. Here's how: 1. Combine signals One weak signal = low SNR 100 uncorrelated weak signals = high aggregate SNR 2. Filter noise before acting Use volatility filters, regime detection, thresholds Trade only when signal strength exceeds noise level 3. Test over longer horizons Short-term = more noise Long-term = signal has more time to emerge 4. Avoid excessive optimization Every parameter you tweak risks modeling noise Simpler systems = less overfit = better SNR integrity 5. Validate rigorously Walk-forward, OOS testing, bootstrapping — treat your model like it’s guilty until proven innocent █ Low SNR = High Uncertainty In low-SNR environments: Alpha takes years to confirm (t-stat grows slowly) Backtests are unreliable (lucky noise often looks like skill) Drawdowns happen randomly (even good strategies get wrecked short-term) This is why experience, skepticism, and humility matter more than flashy charts. If your signal isn’t strong enough to consistently rise above noise, it doesn’t matter how elegant it looks. █ Overfitting Is What Happens When You Fit the Noise If you’ve read Why Your Backtest Lies , you already know the dangers of overfitting — when a strategy is tuned too perfectly to historical data and fails the moment it meets reality. ⚪ Here’s the deeper truth: Overfitting is the natural consequence of working in a low signal-to-noise environment. When markets are 95% noise and you optimize until everything looks perfect? You're not discovering a signal. You're just fitting past randomness — noise that will never repeat the same way again. ❝ The more you optimize in a low-SNR environment, the more confident you become in something that isn’t real. ❞ This is why so many “flawless” backtests collapse in live trading. Because they never captured signal — they captured noise. █ Final Word Quant trading isn’t about who can code the most indicators or build the deepest neural nets. It’s about who truly understands this: ❝ In a world full of noise, only the most disciplined signal survives. ❞ Before you build your next model, launch your next strategy, or chase your next setup… Ask this: ❝ Am I trading signal — or am I trading noise? ❞ If you don’t know the answer, you're probably doing the latter. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Education
by Zeiierman
18
Are You Backtesting or Backfilling Your Ego?You build the setup. You run the test. It’s not quite what you hoped for… So you tweak it. Then tweak it again. Then again. And again. Before you know it, you’re not testing a strategy anymore you’re editing reality until it flatters you. That’s not refinement. That’s backfilling your ego. The urge to make it look right We’re human. Nobody likes drawdowns. Inconsistency feels uncomfortable. And let’s be real.. win-rates under 50% just look bad. We don’t want to see our promising idea fall apart in the data. So instead of facing it, we start sculpting the results to make them easier to accept. We don’t want to see our promising idea fall apart in the data. So instead of facing it, we start sculpting the results to make them easier to accept. Widen the stop just a little. Tighten the take-profit, Perfect! Now my win-rate is 60% Add a filter that “feels logical.” Nudge the indicator setting. Remove the choppy day, “that was news anyway.” And just like that, the curve is smoother. The stats are cleaner. You feel better. But here’s the problem: You’re not building a strategy that works. You’re building a strategy that looks like it works. Optimization isn’t the enemy, but your intentions might be Of course, tuning is part of the process. You should test different inputs and variables. But stop and ask yourself: why are you doing it? If you're refining to understand the behavior of your system, that’s good. If you're changing things to avoid discomfort? That’s not testing. That’s denial. The market doesn’t care how hard you worked. It doesn’t reward effort. It rewards resilience. If your strategy only performs when everything’s perfectly aligned when the moving average is exactly 13.53661, and the RSI is 42.122 instead of 40, and your entry is two bars after a wick touch… Then you don’t have a strategy. You have a sandcastle. And when the tide shifts, it’s gone. All because you wanted it to work so badly, you sculpted the data until it told you what you wanted to hear. A strategy worth trading doesn’t just survive the good times Anyone can build a system that performs in a trending market. Or when volatility is ideal. Or when the dataset ends right before the storm hits. But markets don’t hand out clean conditions on demand. So ask yourself: Have you tested your strategy in stress conditions? Have you run it through market noise, sideways action, volatility spikes, and traps? Have you studied its worst stretch and still said, “Yes… I’d take these trades”? Because if the answer is no, your system isn’t ready. You’re not building a strategy to trade. You’re building one to feel safe.. and that’s far more dangerous. Break it before the market does The best traders do the opposite of comfort: They try to break their systems before live money does it for them. Run a Monte Carlo simulation. Shuffle the order of trades. Randomize outcomes. Apply slippage or missed entries. If your equity curve collapses under that pressure, if your belief in the system evaporates when the trades aren’t perfectly sequenced, then you didn’t build robustness. You built a lucky curve. Loss streaks aren’t a bug, they’re the cost of playing Too many traders design systems that avoid losing… instead of building ones that know how to lose.. Every real edge has pain points. Every equity curve has drawdowns. Every stretch of performance has some ugly days. If your backtest doesn’t show that? Be suspicious, because the market will definitely do. So stop trying to eliminate every loss, and start asking better questions: Where does this strategy actually break? What’s the worst losing streak I can expect? Can I survive that financially and emotionally? bottom line: It’s truth over comfort. Clarity over illusion. Edge over ego. Test it honestly, or the market will ..
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Maaz_BA
“Does size matter?” when it comes to backtesting?It’s the kind of question that gets a few smirks, sure. But when it comes to backtesting trading strategies, it’s not a joke, it’s the difference between confidence and false hope. Let’s get real for a minute: the size of your candles absolutely matters. What you don’t see can hurt you Most people start testing on bigger timeframes. It’s faster, easier on the eyes, and the results look clean. But clean doesn’t mean correct. Larger candles blur the details. That one nice-looking 4-hour candle? Inside, price could’ve spiked, reversed, chopped around, or triggered your stop before closing where it did. You’d never know. And that’s the problem. You might think your entry worked beautifully… but only because the data smoothed out everything that actually happened. A backtest should feel like a real trade Trading isn't just about the final price. It’s about what price does to get there. That messy movement inside the candle? That’s where most trades are made or broken. If your strategy is even remotely reactive, waiting for structure, confirmation, retests, or anything time-sensitive, you need to see what price did between the open and close. And the only way to see that? Use smaller candles. Smaller data, clearer picture 1-minute candles might look overwhelming at first, but they give you something the higher timeframes just can’t: behavior. Not just outcomes. Not just win/loss stats. But the actual shape of the move, the hesitation, the fakeouts, the precise moment when the trade made sense—or didn’t. And once you start testing with that level of detail, your strategy either earns your trust… or shows its cracks. So how small should you go? There’s no one-size-fits-all here. But as a general rule: if your idea relies on precision, go small. Test it on 1-minute or 5-minute charts, even if you plan to execute on higher timeframes. You’ll quickly see if the entry makes sense, or if you’ve been relying on candle-close hindsight. Yes, it takes longer. Yes, you’ll stare at noisy charts for hours. But your strategy will thank you. Watch out for “too good to be true” One last thing, if your backtest results look flawless on 1h or 4h candles, pause. That’s often a sign that you’re testing a story, not a strategy. Zoom in. See what actually happens. You might be surprised at how different the same trade looks when you’re not glossing over the details. TL;DR: In backtesting, size absolutely matters. Smaller candles reveal real behavior. Bigger ones hide the truth. So if you care about how your strategy actually performs not just how it looks. go smaller. Your backtesting will get sharper, and your confidence? Way more earned.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Maaz_BA
12
Do You Know the Difference Between an Indicator and a Strategy?A lot of traders jump into Pine Script or apply a script on TradingView without understanding one key difference: Indicators and Strategies are not the same — especially when it comes to real-time performance and backtesting. --- What’s the Key Difference? Indicators Indicators are visual tools designed to help you analyze price action in real time . They do not track trade performance or simulate trades automatically. You can use them to: - Generate signals - Stack confluences - Set custom alerts - Overlay custom visuals on charts Best for: Chart analysis, signal confirmation, and manual or semi-automated alerts. --- Strategies Strategies are built for backtesting . They simulate how your trade logic would have performed historically, using `strategy.entry`, `strategy.exit`, and related functions. They automatically calculate: - Hypothetical P&L - Win/loss ratio - Drawdowns Best for: Validating trade logic, optimizing entries and exits, performance tracking. --- But Here’s the Catch Many traders assume that once a strategy backtest looks good, it will behave exactly the same in live trading. This assumption can lead to poor decision-making. ❌ Why Forward Testing Isn't Perfect When you set alerts based on a strategy, you're asking a backtest engine to behave like a live trading engine — and that’s not what it was designed for. TradingView strategies: - Only execute on candle close - Do not simulate intrabar price action - Do not account for slippage - Do not reflect real-time market volatility So: - Your strategy alert may fire late compared to actual price movement - Your SL/TP may be hit within a candle, but the strategy won’t know until close - You may see better backtest results than what happens live --- Takeaway If you're using strategies with alerts, it’s critical to understand these constraints: TradingView’s strategy engine is optimized for historical testing, not for real-time execution. It provides insight into the validity of your logic — but it’s not a replacement for a live execution engine. Best Practice Recommendations: - Always forward-test on a demo or paper account first - Monitor how alerts perform in real-time - Be ready to adjust parameters based on your asset and timeframe If you need better responsiveness or real-time adaptability, consider using indicators to generate your alerts. Indicators react to price in real time and are often more suitable for live market conditions. --- Final Note Some strategies are built with these limitations in mind. They can still be useful in real-time trading as long as you're aware of how they work. Transparency is key. Backtesting is a guide, not a guarantee. Trade smart, stay informed. Feel free to reach out if you have questions or insights to share!
Education
by infinity3168
Paper Trading Challenge: Which Strategy Did the Best, Winner is The winner has now been decided! In this thrilling paper trading battle, we put four powerful trading strategies to the test: Harmonics Trading Strategy, Sentiment Trading Strategy, RSAI Blueprint Strategy, and Market Structure Strategy. Throughout this episode, we: Explained the fundamentals of each strategy. Demonstrated real-time application of each trading approach. Tracked and analyzed trades executed by each strategy. Compared performance metrics including win/loss ratio, average return, and overall profitability. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, this video offers valuable insights into the practical application of these popular trading techniques. Watch till the end to see which strategy emerges victorious and to learn tips and tricks you can incorporate into your own trading practice. 🔔 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more trading strategy battles and tutorials!
Education
by TruthakaWallStreetakaCookie
TradingView Masterclass: The power of Bar Replay🚀 Unlocking Your Trading Potential with Bar Replay on TradingView In the whirlwind of trading, having ace tools up your sleeve can dramatically shape your strategy and success. The spotlight shines bright on TradingView’s Bar Replay feature, a gem that offers a rewind on market movements, setting the stage for strategic mastery. Let's dive into what makes Bar Replay a must-use for traders eager to refine their game. 🕒 Understanding Bar Replay on TradingView Bar Replay is one of TradingView's standout features, allowing traders to select any point in history on their chart and watch the market's movements replay from that moment. It's a game-changer for visualizing price actions and volume changes without the stakes of live trading. Whether you're aiming for an in-depth analysis or a quick market recap, the adjustable speed of Bar Replay caters to all your needs with unmatched flexibility. 🤿 Why Dive into Bar Replay ? The magic of Bar Replay lies in its exceptional ability to simulate market scenarios, offering a practice ground for strategy testing and gaining insights from historical market behavior. Newcomers find a safe space to learn and experiment, while the pros get a robust tool for refining strategies. Our tutorial video steps it up by walking you through practical uses on a top company's chart—marking crucial levels, applying indicators, and making trade decisions, all within the Bar Replay environment. ✨ Conclusion: ReplayYour Path to Trading Excellence Bar Replay isn't just another tool; it's your companion in the quest for trading excellence, turning theory into actionable insight. Whether you're just starting or fine-tuning your strategy, it bridges the gap to more informed and decisive trading. Ready to explore Bar Replay 's power and make each session a step closer to your trading goals? Let's embark on this journey together. ❓ Ever tried Bar Replay in your trading adventures? We're all ears! 📢 Whether it's been a strategy game-changer or you're navigating its integration, drop your stories below. Let’s navigate the market's waves together. 💖 TradingView Team PS: Check out our other Masterclasses in the Related Ideas below 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽 and give us a 🚀 and a follow if you don't want to miss any of our future releases!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
7
Guide: SMA and RSI for Trend ReversalsWelcome, traders! In this comprehensive guide, we'll explore a long-term trading strategy that leverages two powerful technical indicators: the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). By the end, you'll have a solid understanding of how to use these tools to identify trend reversals and make informed trading decisions with a focus on the bigger picture. 📉📈 Educational Objectives: Understand the concept of long-term trading and its benefits. Learn how to use the Simple Moving Average (SMA) to identify trends. Master the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for spotting overbought and oversold conditions. Combine SMA and RSI for a comprehensive long-term trading strategy. Recognize key points of trend reversal for well-timed entries. 📌 Part 1: The Foundation of Long-Term Trading Long-term trading focuses on capturing significant price movements over extended periods. It requires patience, discipline, and the ability to ignore short-term noise. 📌 Part 2: Understanding the Simple Moving Average (SMA) SMA is a trend-following indicator that smooths price data to reveal the underlying trend. The 200-day SMA is particularly useful for long-term analysis, indicating the overall trend direction. An upward-sloping 200-day SMA suggests a bullish trend, while a downward slope indicates a bearish trend. 📌 Part 3: Mastering the Relative Strength Index (RSI) RSI measures the speed and change of price movements, helping identify overbought and oversold conditions. An RSI above 70 suggests overbought conditions and a potential trend reversal. An RSI below 30 indicates oversold conditions, potentially signaling a trend reversal to the upside. 📌 Part 4: Combining SMA and RSI for Long-Term Trading Look for confluence: Confirm trend reversals when the 200-day SMA aligns with RSI overbought or oversold signals. A bearish signal could be an overbought RSI crossing below the 200-day SMA, signaling a potential downtrend. A bullish signal might be an oversold RSI crossing above the 200-day SMA, suggesting a potential uptrend. 📌 Part 5: Identifying Points of Trend Reversal Key points to recognize trend reversals include: Divergence: When the price makes new highs or lows but RSI doesn't, it signals a potential reversal. Crossovers: Pay attention to the 200-day SMA crossing above or below the price chart. Volume: Increasing trading volume often accompanies trend reversals. 🚀 Conclusion: Long-term trading can be highly rewarding, but it requires a deep understanding of market trends and the right tools. By combining the SMA and RSI indicators, you gain a powerful strategy for identifying trend reversals and making well-informed trades with long-term potential. Remember that no strategy is infallible, so always employ proper risk management techniques and continuously refine your trading skills. ❗See related ideas below❗ Like, share, and leave your thoughts in the comments! Your engagement fuels our crypto discussions. 💚🚀💚
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Yaroslav_Krasko
1
Initiation. Accumulation. PumpHow to trade coins after listing? Here is logic of IAP model BINANCE:APTUSDT When people get tokens after airdrop or launchpad, most likely on first candle we will see seller pressure. This model works in general only for fundamental projects, where even people who get tokens for free will hold it for long term. Because we got a lot of examples when this model doesn't work and price crashed under listing price. Also we need pay attention in what market period we see this listing. Because if it's a beginning of bear market this model most likely also will not works. Initiation - Formation price imbalance in the broad price range at the time of listing coins can be interpreted as an initiating impulse, who doesn't leave fair traded price zones on ways of its formation and in here will be be nearest target. We can use Fib from the bottom to the top candle before correction or just count only body of first Daily close candle. Accumulation - Price reaction to price imbalance initiating impulse is a direct indication of the presence or lack of accumulation character on the chart. Zones for accumulation before pump will be classic 0.618 / 0.71/ 0.86 levels by fib. Pump - last stage of this model is a Pump, minimal target for this trade can be -0.27 and -0.618 level by fib where you can fix profit. On this example with Aptos it was over 500% pump. After pump depends of market stage and cycle price can continue parabolic move up or correction again to 0.5 or 0.618 level by same fib. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Education
by Crypto4light
THIS IS THE REASON YOUR STRATEGY DOESN'T WORKThe title is brash, I know. But before you click away, answer these two questions: 1) How many strategies have you tried? 2) How many strategies have you backtested through several years and thousands of trades? If you have tried more strategies than you've backtested rigorously, then stick around because that's probably the reason why you're losing money. Imagine this. Florence is a novice trader. He's seen the thousands of dollars in profit a kid 10 years younger than him can generate. He's seen the kid flexing his Lambo on Instagram. The kid mentions RSI a few times, so Florence assumes the RSI indicator is the secret to insane profits. Florence is chomping at the bits and loads up a fresh Webull account with $3,000. Every time the RSI is above 70 on a stock, he shorts that stock. Lo and behold, after 5 trades, Florence's account now sits at $2,300. He concludes the indicator does not work. Florence perseveres and is determined to find the secret strategy to quick profits. He scraps the RSI and studies "support and resistance" trading from a few youtube mentors. He reloads his Webull account back up to $3,000. With a refreshed vision, he shorts anytime a stock is at resistance and longs anytime a stock hits support. Sadly, after 10 trades, his account is down again, this time to $2,600. Florence is flabbergasted. The story goes on. He attempts implementing strategy after strategy and continues to lose money. Unfortunately, many of us are Florence. We did what he did. We got into the game without a blueprint or game plan. And this is why my title is brashly stated, "If you don't read this you are going to lose money," because it's true. If you resemble Florence even in the slightest, basing the success of your trading strategy on a handful of trades, then how do you expect to know what strategy is actually successful? I don't blame you for approaching trading like Florence. In today's age, we are seeing the market oversaturated with traders and trading coaches, or even worse, "trading influencers". As with any influx of the masses, we are going to get the scumbags trying to get you to buy their image and product by falsifying the simplicity and ease of trading. If you are jumping between strategies without quantifying its success and failure rates over thousands of scenarios, then stop trading right now because you are going to continue losing money. Find a backtesting service or at the least log every single trade you take. Whatever it is, slow down and find proof of failure before declaring failure. I don't want you to fall into a never-ending hole of searching for the "right" indicator/strategy. The truth is, most of the strategies you've thrown away probably work and you don't even know it.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by thetradedoc
Visualizing Stochastic energy for perfect entriesThe stochastic RSI has always been a problem tool for me because of its clunky look erratic lines and the way it seems l....r each other and sometimes it doesn't. I've always felt like the stochastic RSI had these energy waves built into it that we weren't able to see because if there's an uptrend of the stochastic then there has to be an equal or greater downtrend of energy pushing it in the other direction but what if there isn't more than that energy and what if this is a perfect balance between the two energies. This would imply that either that there's a divergence of the energy related to how price is closing or there is a pause in the energy because they're balanced between the two and of course that means your price will pause and run flat as well. In this video I talk about the proper way to use this new indicator and the way you used to use the stochastic RSI. Using the information as video and the images that I plot out on the screen you'll be able to see when you should do you should enter trades long or short and why you need to know where your support and resistance lines are as well as whether you're breaking above or below your moving averages. Let this video be a first class tutorial on perfect trades using a stochastic RSI but like all other indicators you cannot use it by itself make sure that you have confluence on your price chart. PS as always welcome to the coffee shop.
Education
by CoffeeshopCrypto
13
DAY TRADING 101: How to Get StartedHello guys! Day trading is a popular way for traders to make money by buying and selling assets within the same trading day. However, before you begin day trading, it's important to understand the basics and develop a solid trading strategy. In this post, we'll cover the basics of day trading and provide some tips on how to get started. First, it's important to understand the different types of securities that you can day trade. Some popular options include stocks, options, futures, and currencies. Each of these securities has its own unique characteristics and requires different strategies, so it's important to choose the one that best fits your goals and risk tolerance. Next, you need to develop a trading plan . Your plan should include your trading strategy, the securities you plan to trade, and your risk management techniques. It's also important to set realistic goals and be prepared to stick to them. Once you have a trading plan in place, you need to practice . You can do this by using a simulation or paper trading account. This will allow you to test your trading strategy and learn from your mistakes before you start risking real money. Another important thing to consider is your risk management . This means understanding the level of risk you're willing to take and setting stop-losses and profit-taking orders to protect your capital. It's also important to maintain a proper risk-reward ratio, which means that the potential profit should be larger than the potential loss. In addition to the above, it's crucial to keep an eye on the market and news , as they can greatly impact your trades, so it's essential to stay updated with the latest news and trends. Finally, keep in mind that day trading requires discipline and patience, so be prepared to put in the time and effort to become a successful trader. To sum it up, day trading can be a great way to make money, but it's important to understand the basics and develop a solid trading strategy. Additionally, you should practice with a simulation or paper trading account, have a proper risk management, stay informed and be prepared to put in the time and effort. Which type of trading do you prefer?
BLACKBULL:US30Education
by m_maia14
1
The basics of back-testing (HOW TO)Hey Traders, Today I wanted to follow on from the fantastic amount of comments that we are receiving from the previous video, "stop strategy jumping." It seems that so many of you took a whole heap of value from that video and for that I am very thankful and to everyone who reached out and told their story or let me know that it really touched them. As highly requested, I wanted to run through a basic way to start getting the grips with strategy back-testing. How can we go about back-testing our strategies to ensure that they are profitable for us in the long run? Take a look, have a listen and tune in. Set up an excel sheet the way I do and get back testing. There's only one way to do this, and it is to do the hard work. Let me know what you guys find. I can go more in depth in the future, but for now. It seems like most people wanted to get to grips with the absolute basics, which is what I'm going to show you today. If you have any questions at all, please the comment section is the place to be. As always, have a fantastic trading week and a fantastic weekend traders. I'll see you very soon.
Education
by the5erstrading
12
LET'S GET REAL: Stop Strategy Jumping!Hey Traders, This one is going to be a little bit different, a little bit deeper and a little bit harder to listen to rather than usual technical analysis. I recommend you sit down and listen to this. Have a think whether it relates to you or whether you found yourself in this position, or even if you've gone through this position and share your experience on how you go through it. A lot of traders struggle with their strategy, jumping from aspects of trading and that's why so many educators out there make a lot of money off of them. It is time to stop. In this video I outlay a challenge that I put to all the traders who may find themselves in this position to sit down and to thoroughly test their current or previous strategies and understand them on a deeper level. No more jumping around, no more looking outwards. Let's start looking inwards. Let's see the data that we have handed to us and what we can do to improve that data. If you enjoyed this video, please leave a comment. Leave a like, if we do get enough likes and comments, I will make a Part 2 on how to go about this with a more depth avenue while using different resources. As always, have a fantastic training week.
Education
by the5erstrading
222
📖 Diversification in trading strategies. Part 1Often, traders are pursuing the system's maximum profitability, upon creating trading strategies. However, it is more important not to increase the value of the expected profit, but to reduce the possible risk, which is expressed in the maximum allowable drawdown. A simple, but relatively reliable way to assess the trading strategy effectiveness is to determine the profitability ratio to the system's drawdown maximum in the period under study, the so-called recovery factor. For example, if the system's profitability is 45% per annum, and the maximum drawdown is 15%, the recovery factor will be 3. If we compare two systems with different profit values and drawdowns, then the system with a higher recovery factor will be better. A system that allows to earn 30% per annum with a 5% drawdown will be better than a system with 100% per annum and a 40% drawdown. The profitability can be easily adjusted to the required value using margin lending, but the risk level in the system profitability cannot be changed, these are integral terms of the system. By increasing the yield, we increase the risk accordingly. However, it is possible to reduce the portfolio risk at all applying diversification, that is, trade not one separate strategy, but a whole set, dividing the capital between the systems. In this case, the drawdown of each individual system does not necessarily coincide with the drawdowns of all other systems in the portfolio, therefore, in general, we can expect a smaller total drawdown maximum, while the system's profitability is only averaged. If the systems are sufficiently independent of each other (different trading strategies are used, different instruments are traded), then the drop in equity in one of the systems will most likely be compensated by the increase in equity in some other system. The more independent trading strategies and trading instruments are, the more the overall risk is diluted. There are even situations when it makes sense to add a knowingly unprofitable strategy to the portfolio. Although the overall portfolio profitability will decrease slightly, it may turn out that the risk will decrease even more, and overall portfolio performance will improve. Theoretically, if you add more and more strategies and instruments to your portfolio, you can get as little risk as you want, and, accordingly, as much efficiency as you want. However, in practice, such an intention will inevitably face the problem of correlation between different strategies and tools. The main ways of possible diversification are as follows: Diversification by trading strategies Diversification by parameters of trading strategies Diversification by trading instruments Diversification across markets 🧐In this part we will take a closer look at the first option. 📌 Diversification by trading strategies At the heart of every trading strategy is some general market attribute or traded instrument that can be used to make a profit. For example, the ability of the market to form prices trends and continue moving after a breakout of a strong resistance level. If there are several systems based on fundamentally different considerations, then capital diversifying between these systems can lead to significant risk reduction. Indeed, in terms of the internal essence of the system, they can be as different from each other as you like, and as weakly correlated with each other. If, for example, trend-following systems and systems on level breakouts are somehow similar to each other and often give similar equity, then trend-following and counter-trend systems, on the contrary, will even show a negative correlation. Where the trend-following system will be sawn, the counter-trend system will show profit, respectively, the overall portfolio risk will significantly decrease. Diversification of this kind, in theory, has no limits in depth and depends only on the creative ability of the trader to create systems. Therefore, it is important to constantly continue to work on the search for new trading strategies, since it is in this direction that the most reliable way to increase the efficiency and profitability of trading lies.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by I.T.Analytics
23
Index Gap Filling Target Strategy in Sudden Falls...(Rare Cases)Broke the trend line, fine retest and sudden fall. In such cases of sudden fall which happens very rarely, booking profits at right support is very important and you can find the right targets too. Targets should be the closing of the previous days. You can book profit at the previous day's closing and enter again with smaller stop loss targeting previous days closings, this is how index might fill the remaining gaps due to gap up openings. This same concept worked in Nifty also same day. Nifty took support exact at the previous days closings. So always mark the closing prices while market extreme volatile. I have checked this multiple times so please test this in live market while shorting Nifty or Bank Nifty. And please be free to comment on this, anything and everything is important. Let me know the con's of this strategy and more pro's are also welcome. Express yourself and like this if you actually understood this concept. Thank You!!!
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by dhole_aditya
Using the Strategy Tester to Evaluate a StrategyThis video idea explains how to use the strategy tester on TradingView to evaluate the performance of your strategy. We go over all of the data presented for you regarding your strategy, and if we make mistakes along the way you can always check out the TradingView help section that is specifically for the Strategy Tester. I highlight the overview of your strategy, dive into the details of the performance summary for your strategy, and show how we can review all of our trades including our commission paid. Finally, we show how changes to the strategy can alter your Strategy Tester results and how accounting for commission(fees) and selective testing windows can alter perceptions on strategies.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by BigBitsIO
23
STAR TREK CAPTAIN JEAN-LUC PICARDCaptian Jean-Luc Picard is a character from the series Star Trek. He is many Star Trek fans favorite Captain because of his combination of class, wisdom and wit. This particular statement was spoken to the Android Data who was failing in his attempts to be more human. Tim has found this encapsulated his early trading experiences to a tee. Early in Tim's attempts to be a profitable trader he traded index futures. He had his strategy and was paper trading. He would get four or five winning trades in a row. He felt he knew what he was doing and felt he was ready to try real money. So the next trade setup he took on his real money account and lost, so he returned to paper trading. This cycle repeated itself several times. Losers are part of the statistical game in trading. If he stuck to the real money account those paper winning trades would have been real money winners. These winners would have easily offset the losers. The whole time he felt he was making mistakes. If he did it right it should have been a winner. Understand this, you can get all the rules right and still lose a trade. That's ok, that's life. That's trading. Trading is never a sure thing, it's always about statistic and probability. Just because you had a loser doesn't mean tht you did something wrong. Just because you had a winner doesn't mean you did everything right either. The important thing is to follow your strategy rules, your trade management rules, your risk management rules. If you followed all your rules then you did it right, winner or loser. Trading Maxim's help control your emotional impulses and keep you on the straight and narrow path. A maxim is a general truth fundamental principle, a rule of conduct or a proverbial saying. The purpose of Tim's Maxim's is to motivate you to discipline and trading as well as other areas of your life. We suggest that you start your own list of Maxim's. Things you can say to yourself while you are trading or doing life to make sure you always do the right thing. Feel free to borrow from Tim's list.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Tradingstrategyguides
Testing performance of Cyber Ensemble Strategy on a model Stock..with the Squeeze Test insensitivity increased to 40. Performs well even with 0.15% commission. For best results with my strategy scripts, the parameters needs to be optimized and back tested for a particular chart and timeframe. Default settings were optimized for Bitcoin (BTC) on the 6hr chart (but appeared to perform well at selected lower timeframes, including the 30mins timeframe). Cyber Ensemble Strategy -- Base on a complex interplay of different conventional indicators, and an assortment of my own developed filtering (prune and boost) algorithms. Cyber Ensemble Alerts -- My attempt to try replicate my strategy script as a study, that generates Buy/Sell Alerts (including stop-limit strategic buys/sells) to allow autotrading on exchanges that can execute trades base on TV alerts. This project is a work-in-progress. Cyber Momentum Strategy -- This script is based on my pSAR derived momentum oscillators set (PRISM) that I personally rely on a lot for my own trades. The "Alerts" version of this will be developed once Cyber Ensemble Alerts have been perfected. PRISM -- pSAR derived oscillator and its own RSI/StochRSI, as well as Momentum/Acceleration/Jerk oscillators.
NASDAQ:COKEEducation
by cybernetwork