Cyber MondayUp to 80% OFF

1-BTCUSD

BTC and Crypto analysis based on Presidential Cycle. I've seen a 36% drop in bitcoin, and for the first time in my life as a multi asset trader and investor, I wonder: ok, this seems like a good opportunity, where will price turn, and where will it move to? when you look for a pattern, you first go with 3 things: 1. presidential cycles. 2. Decennial Market Cycle. 3. Annual and quarterly cycle. first thing you saw when you analyze the presidential cycle, you see a beautiful pattern that has been repeated 3 times in bitcoin historical data out of 4. and it is 1. buy in pre-election year, and sell in middle of post-election year. 2. transition year / second year after election is always a profit taking cycle with 30% average drop. now you know one data of best time to buy. and it's Jan 2027. when to sell? you might ask: 1. first option: after the election is done. 2. end of post election year. 3. hold it till the rest of your life. profit target is 150K, or you can hold it for the rest of your life, because you bought the bottom of all bottoms. (just kidding) Patiently wait for this opportunity, because it happens once in every 4 year.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by matinkhabari
2
Bitcoin Time-Channel CyclesYellow = 1064d expansion Green = 658d mean node Blue = 364d compression This chart documents a repeating BTC time-channel structure built from prior cycle highs and lows. The goal here is not to force a price prediction, but to show that Bitcoin has been respecting a consistent rhythm in time and slope across multiple market regimes. When the previous major ATL is used as the anchor, the next macro expansion phase has repeatedly aligned with a ~1064-day duration. That expansion window is displayed as the larger corridor, and it has now shown up cleanly from the 2015 ATL into the 2017 ATH, from the 2018 ATL into the 2021 ATH, and again from the 2022 ATL into the 2025 ATH.. Inside each 1064-day expansion corridor, a secondary time node appears at roughly 658 days, which is the golden-ratio contraction of the full expansion cycle. What’s notable is that price has not been randomly positioned at this midpoint in time. Instead, it has repeatedly migrated back to the mean of the rising channel near the 658 day mark, acting like a structural equilibrium reset within the broader uptrend. This “mean hit” behavior is visible across cycles and is one of the main reasons to watch time geometry alongside price geometry. After the mean-hit, the market has historically rotated into the final leg of the expansion phase before completing the cycle high. Following each macro high, the bearish compression phase has clustered around ~364 days, shown as the blue corridor. These reset windows are materially shorter than the expansion windows, which matches the observed tendency for bullish advances to build over years while bearish phases compress into faster, more volatile declines. The expansion to compression ratio is close to 3:1, reinforcing the idea that the market “inhales” slowly and “exhales” quickly in time. The important takeaway is that the model is not asking price to obey a specific number; it’s showing how price has behaved inside repeating time-based corridors, with the mean of the channel acting as a magnet around the 658 day node. This framework is shared as a structural study, not a guarantee. Markets can mutate, and no historical symmetry is permanent. However, when a time-channel sequence repeats cleanly across multiple cycles, it becomes a useful way to frame expectation, especially for identifying where equilibrium touches and regime shifts are statistically more likely to occur. If this rhythm continues to hold, future cycle windows can be mapped the same way, with the emphasis placed on time-based decision zones and mean reactions rather than on any single price target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by johnconner966
Bitcoin: Where Is The Bottom?Bitcoin sell off continues through the 90K to 88K support area. There have been no reversal confirmations on this time frame since I wrote my previous report. The reversal pattern that I was anticipating never even began to materialize. Trade opportunities were best found on the day trade time frames in my opinion. Why wasn't anyone calling for such a move back in August? All of the "experts" who seem to always know the future, until something like this comes along? This is why I don't forecast the future, instead I do my best to uncover potential risks which can lead to capturing potential opportunities. 88K is where I labeled Wave 1 of the broader 5th wave which I talked about for months. I warned investors that buying and attempting to hold above 100K was high risk. Bitcoin is NOW at prices worth monitoring for longer time horizon investing, BUT price has compromised the 88K overlap level. I interpret as we are no longer in the broader Wave 4 and instead, the Wave 5 of 5 is likely complete. There is a much lower chance that we get the dramatic rally into the 130Ks as a result. This change in expectation is what guides how I gauge investment potential, which then shapes my strategy and goals. 73K is a MAJOR support level (previous all time high before the election) and it is now much more possible to be tested. IF there is any confirmed reversal before reaching this support, profit potential for SWING trades can be measured from the next series of resistances 95K, 100K, and 105K respectively. The 88K overlap suggests that Bitcoin is now in a broader Wave 2 which is likely to unfold in a long term range. A range low is more likely and has yet to be established. It could be 73K, it could be lower like in the 60Ks. SENTIMENT drives price over the short term which is why fundamentals alone are not enough. There are many ways to begin accumulating Bitcoin inventory or acquiring exposure without buying Bitcoin itself. There's a entire collection of ETFs that track Bitcoin that have low cost fees. There are also other stocks that are highly correlated to Bitcoin but have their own unique characteristics which can enhance performance or help to mitigate some of the risks of buying Bitcoin itself. COIN is one of many examples. I would rather accumulate shares of a stock which is easily accessible and straightforward than accumulating Bitcoin itself simply out of convenience. I will talk more about this during my regular stream. The illustration on my chart is ONE of many scenarios to consider for the coming weeks. While 73K is a possibility, I like it is a low probability that price will probe that low without attempting to retrace first. There is a pin bar in place but still lacking confirmation on this time frame. I believe there is a much higher chance of reversal from the current prices, BUT I do not expect an attempt at new all time highs any time soon. WAIT for confirmations, set profit objectives and keep expectations within the boundaries that are set forth by the PRICE STRUCTURE, not "experts" whose only agenda is to convert your attention into a paycheck. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
40
BTCUSD – Outlook for the Upcomming daysMonthly View The monthly timeframe remains bullish overall, but Bitcoin has pulled back to gather strength, it can take previous monthly timeframe low's liquidity. This kind of move is typical when the market is gearing up to break a higher high. The broader structure hasn’t shifted—this is simply a deeper retracement inside a bullish narrative. Weekly View The weekly chart is showing a similar story. Price has been dropping consistently without giving even a single proper reversal. If BTC truly wanted to fall aggressively, it would normally make a move up first, trigger traders’ stop-losses near previous highs, and then dump. But this time, it didn’t do that. This unusual behavior hints that the market may be preparing something different from what most traders expect. Daily View The daily timeframe is where things get really interesting. Bitcoin spent more than half the recent sessions moving sideways, collecting liquidity on both sides. After that, it dipped and formed a lower high—but that lower high hasn’t been broken yet. According to my analysis, BTC is currently sitting in the Discount Zone, an area where buyers often start becoming active. 4-Hour View On the 4H chart, I already had a clean short setup earlier, but now I’m watching for signs of a potential reversal. That reversal idea is not guaranteed, though—it becomes invalid if BTC fails to break the series of lower highs. There’s also another scenario: BTC might refuse to break the lower highs and begin forming higher lows at the same time. If that happens, we’ll see a period of sideways consolidation. When the breakout finally comes—whichever direction it chooses—the move is likely to be powerful. Final Thoughts Based on my analysis, BTC is showing mixed but promising signals across the higher and lower timeframes. The monthly structure is still bullish, and this pullback looks more like preparation for a stronger push rather than a trend reversal. Weekly price action hasn’t shown any meaningful bounce yet, which is unusual—and that alone hints that the market might be setting up something unexpected. On the daily chart, BTC has swept liquidity after moving sideways for quite a while, and now it’s resting in the Discount Zone, where smart money usually becomes active. The 4H timeframe already gave clean short opportunities earlier, but now the market is approaching a point where a reversal could begin—unless lower highs remain untouched. If BTC starts forming higher lows without breaking lower highs, the market will likely slip into a compression phase. When price finally breaks out of that squeeze, the move—up or down—can be very strong. Again, this is just my personal viewpoint. Please do your own analysis before investing. Your profits and losses are entirely your responsibility—I’m only sharing what the charts are suggesting to me right now. Stay alert to the reaction levels ahead; that’s where the next major direction will reveal itself. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks for checking out this analysis! If you enjoyed it, hit that follow button so you don’t miss future updates. And if this breakdown helped you out, drop a like 👍 and share your thoughts in the comments 💬—I always appreciate the feedback!
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by PankajHuslte
2
BTC Market Structure UpdateBitcoin is currently trading near the 84,000 zone while respecting a downward trendline on the 15-minute chart. Price is moving inside a short-term compression range. A clean break above the trendline and the 84,472 zone may indicate strength toward the next price areas around 85,154 and 85,554, where potential resistance levels exist. However, if the price fails to hold above the mid-range and moves below 83,185, it may show weakness toward the lower support area. This update highlights key structure levels so traders can observe how price reacts to each zone.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Wolfpips123
Bitcoin: Is the Market Reaching a Historical Turning Point?📅 Update: October 2025 💡 Format: Educational analysis — not financial advice Historical Context Looking back at Bitcoin’s (BTC) price history, a clear pattern emerges: roughly every four years, the market experiences a major correction following a strong bullish cycle. Key examples include: 2011 2013–2014 2018 2022 Each time, Bitcoin saw a drawdown of –75% to –93% from its previous highs. These deep retracements have historically marked the end of a growth phase and the beginning of a new accumulation cycle. Current Elliott Wave Structure According to Elliott Wave analysis, Bitcoin appears to have completed its third and fourth waves, while the fifth wave is currently unfolding. However, the recent price action suggests that this fifth wave might already be nearing its conclusion. The price remains within an upward channel, testing the trendline for the fourth time — a technical signal that often indicates weakening bullish momentum and a potential transition to a corrective phase. Main Scenario: Possible Trend Reversal For a confirmed shift in trend, Bitcoin would need to break below the channel’s lower boundary. A typical technical sequence would look like this: A breakdown below the trendline A retest of the broken level from below The beginning of a stronger downward move This process usually unfolds over months, not days — a slow structural change rather than a sudden reversal. Potential Downside Range Based on historical patterns, a post-peak correction could bring Bitcoin into the $40,000–$30,000 range. This is not a forecast, but rather an educational scenario grounded in the recurring market behavior seen in previous cycles. Conclusion and Community Discussion 📊 At this stage, Bitcoin’s overall structure remains bullish, but signs of momentum exhaustion are becoming more apparent. The key factor to watch is how price reacts to the main trendline — whether it holds as support or gives way to a deeper retracement. ❓Which scenario do you find more likely? Continued growth and new highs Or a corrective phase toward lower levels? 🗨 Share your thoughts and charts in the comments — let’s discuss it together. 🔔 Follow for more educational breakdowns, and suggest which tickers you’d like to see analyzed next.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sdk-trading
1
BTC.D 4H – Market Structure OutlookHi fellow traders, On the 4H BTC Dominance chart, I am applying Elliott Wave principles to outline a directional scenario for the broader crypto market. After completing the recent downward leg, I expect dominance to move higher in three waves, forming a corrective structure before the larger continuation to the downside can resume. This is not a trade setup, but a structural roadmap to understand how capital may rotate across the crypto market. As long as BTC.D remains below the invalidation level at 61.32%, my expectation is that dominance will eventually turn lower with TP1, TP2, and TP3 as the downside objectives - signalling increasing strength for ALTcoins. If dominance breaks above the invalidation level, this scenario is no longer valid. Good luck and trade safe!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by OGwavetrader
2
Saylor’s Master Plan at Risk? MSCI Drops the HammerMSCI May Exclude Crypto-Heavy Companies: What It Means for MicroStrategy and the Market MSCI recently published a proposal that could dramatically reshape how global indices treat companies with large crypto exposure. According to the framework, companies holding more than 50% of their market capitalization in digital assets may be excluded from national and international indices. This sounds technical - but the consequences are huge. What This Means in Practice If the rule is implemented, companies like MicroStrategy, Bitfarms, Marathon, Hut8, Coinbase, or any firm holding a large percentage of crypto on their balance sheet, may: be excluded from major indices, lose exposure to institutional investors, be off-limits for pension funds, insurers and conservative hedge funds, face reduced liquidity and forced selling. This is not a small development. This is a structural shift. 🧩 Why MicroStrategy Is the Most Exposed MicroStrategy’s business model has been extremely straightforward: issue new shares raise debt (including convertible notes) use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin rising BTC → rising MSTR rising MSTR → more borrowing capacity A perpetual loop. But if MSTR gets excluded from key indices, the loop breaks: passive funds must sell institutional investors face compliance risk liquidity dries up volatility increases borrowing costs rise And remember: MicroStrategy currently trades below the fair value of its Bitcoin holdings. A forced outflow amplifies the structural imbalance. ⚠️ Why Institutions Bought MicroStrategy Instead of Bitcoin Many funds legally cannot buy Bitcoin. They also cannot buy high-risk crypto exchange stocks like Coinbase. But they can buy: reputable corporate debt convertible notes equity from a listed U.S. corporation Michael Saylor gave them a regulatory loophole: “Want Bitcoin exposure? Buy my convertible debt. If BTC rises, convert the notes into shares.” This workaround is now cracking. Convertible Debt Holders Are in a Tough Spot If MSTR is excluded from indices: index funds sell → share price drops falling price → convertible notes lose value institutions holding the debt face losses the balance sheet risk increases This is why regulatory decisions matter so much. Insider Selling: VP of Bitcoin at MicroStrategy Sells ~$19.7M Worth of Stock The timing is… interesting. Started selling on September 18 Sold options-based shares in multiple lots Continued selling until November 14 Total realized profit: ~$19.69M Selling into regulatory uncertainty is not random behavior. It’s a signal. Key Takeaways 1. MSCI’s proposal changes the rules: companies with >50% crypto exposure may become “non-indexable”. 2. MicroStrategy’s core model—borrowing to buy BTC—depends on institutional inflows. Index exclusion disrupts it. 3. Convertible note investors may face severe pressure. 4. Insider selling suggests internal awareness of structural risk. 5. If MSTR is removed from indices, forced selling could create significant downside pressure. 📉 Conclusion MicroStrategy has long been a “Bitcoin ETF before ETFs existed”. Institutions bought MSTR because they couldn’t buy BTC directly. But now: Bitcoin ETFs exist, regulations are tightening, index providers are updating risk frameworks. MicroStrategy may become a victim of its own success strategy. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
25
BTC Monthly MACD Turns Bearish - Major Correction Ahead?Bitcoin has printed a bearish MACD crossover on the monthly timeframe, a signal that has historically aligned with the start of major market corrections. This pattern appeared during the 2018 top, again near the 2022 macro peak, and the chart now shows a similar bearish crossover forming once more. Each previous monthly MACD bearish crossover occurred after a prolonged rally and was followed by a multi-month downtrend. The current crossover resembles those same market conditions, suggesting that BTC may be entering a deeper corrective phase if history repeats. Key Highlights - Monthly MACD bearish crossover, historically signals macro trend reversals. -Similar crossovers occurred before the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. -Strong rejection candle near major resistance aligns with previous cycle tops. - Momentum weakening after an extended rally suggests potential for further downside. - Monthly timeframe signals carry high weight and can drive long-term market direction. Cheers Hexa
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by HexaTrades
1
A new look at previous logarithmic channelWith the trendlines of this channel slightly shifted we can see that it is possible that priceaction has already tested the top trendline of the channel. However in my previous version of this idea which I will try to post below it hasn’t connected with the top trendline yet. Would make more sense for it to be having the rejection it is having if it has already retested this top trendline though so I decided to post this version of the chart too so I can keep an eye on both. Even if somehow this does signal some sort of top it looks like we have very strong support on the next trendline just below the current one which should have the monthly 50ma double reinforcing its support in the very near future. SOo in that case that 50k zone there should hold strong support,but hopefully this is So another correction and not the top in which case the current trendline we have just retested will hold support. *not financial advice*
INDEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
BTC CME Futures: The Capitulation Buy SetupSimply: The logic here is simple. Bitcoin has dropped too far and too fast. We are currently hitting a major mathematical exhaustion point (the 2.5 Standard Deviation line). At the same time, we are entering that big blue support box between 78k and 82k where the massive rally started earlier this year. This is not a crash anymore; it is a bear trap. Retail traders are panic selling right at the bottom, which provides the liquidity for big players to buy. We are setting a limit order to catch the final wick down before the bounce. Entry: 81,250 (Buy Limit) Stop Loss: 77,500 (If it goes below here, the setup is wrong) Target: 94,000 (The bounce back to equilibrium) Don't chase the red candles. Let the price come to you, fill the order, and wait for the squeeze. ​____ Advanced: The algorithm is currently executing a terminal volatility expansion into the 2.5 Standard Deviation extremity to finalize the Macro Sell Model and engineer a generational Smart Money Reversal. The present liquidation cascade is not a crash but a precise, mathematically ordained delivery of price into the deep discount 'Blue Box' accumulation array to harvest the final sell-side liquidity before the grand repricing event. ​ Entry: 81,250.00 (Limit Order - 4,000 points below market) Stop loss: 77,500.00 (3,750 points) Take profit: 94,000.00 (12,750 points) Risk to reward ratio: 3.40R ​ The Opportunity The Bitcoin algorithm has been running a high-velocity sell program from the 126,000.00 highs, systematically dismantling every bullish PD Array. However, we have now breached the Event Horizon. The price is magnetically drawn to the confluence of the 2.5 Standard Deviation projection and the historical Accumulation Block (78k-82k) originating from the early 2025 impulse. This zone represents the 'Algorithmic Floor'—a region of maximum discount where institutional order flow must pivot from distribution to accumulation to close massive short positions and defend the macro bull trend. ​ The Entry Do not chase the current candle. The algorithm demands a touch of the 2.5 Standard Deviation level at approximately 80,800.00 - 81,200.00 to complete the fractal expansion. We place our limit order at 81,250.00 to front-run the absolute mathematical bottom, capitalizing on the 'Capitulation Wick' that will clear the final trailing stops. This entry is timed for the CME close/open gap or the weekend volatility injection, which often targets these extreme deviation levels to trap late bears before a violent Monday reversal. ​ The Invalidation The reversal thesis is ontologically corrupted if price displaces below the 3.0 Standard Deviation level and the bottom of the accumulation block at 74,000.00. A sustained closure below this level signifies a total failure of the macro structure and a transition into a secular bear market, invalidating the accumulation narrative. This would shift the probability manifold to the Primary Antithetical Chain, targeting the 60,000.00 liquidity void. ​ Key Trajectory Waypoints Target 1: 86,000.00 | Type: Immediate Rebalance (2.25 SD) | Probability: 90% | ETA: 24 Hours Target 2: 90,500.00 | Type: Internal Bearish Breaker | Probability: 75% | ETA: 3-5 Days Target 3: 94,000.00 | Type: Equilibrium / FVG Fill | Probability: 60% | ETA: 1-2 Weeks The Shadow Reality A 25% probability exists for the antithetical reality: The Abyss Cascade. In this scenario, the 2.5 SD level fails to provide a reaction, and the algorithm enters a 'Free Fall' discovery mode targeting the 3.0 SD at 74,000.00 immediately. This reality is confirmed if price slices through 80,000.00 with no wick response. ___ tags: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD
CME:BTC1!Long
by TradeConfirmed
BTC in a bear marketBTC Price Outlook: Potential Decline Toward 85K Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing signs of potential weakness, with technical indicators suggesting a possible retracement toward the 85,000 level. This zone may act as a key support area if bearish momentum continues. Several factors contribute to this outlook: - 📉 Momentum Shift: Recent price action indicates slowing bullish momentum, with lower highs forming on shorter timeframes. - 📊 Volume Analysis: Declining volume during upward moves suggests a lack of strong buying interest, increasing the probability of a pullback. - 🧠 Market Psychology: Traders could be locking in profits after the recent rally, leading to increased selling pressure. If BTC approaches the 85K level, it will be crucial to monitor how price reacts—whether it finds support and consolidates, or breaks lower toward deeper retracement zones. Risk management and confirmation signals remain essential in navigating this setup.
Short
by MohammadMola
1
BTC/USDT — Bearish Impulse Structure Near Completion, Is Wave 5?Bitcoin is entering one of its most decisive phases since reaching its recent cycle high. On the 3-Day timeframe, the price is forming a clear 5-wave bearish impulse, and the entire structure is now converging into one critical question: Are we standing right at the edge of the “final flush” into Wave (5)? --- 📌 The Bigger Picture After peaking in the 120–126k region, BTC entered a distribution phase that triggered a sharp decline into Wave (1). The rebound into Wave (2) failed to break new highs — a strong confirmation that the market lost bullish strength. Now the price is trapped between: Major Supply Zone (~92k) → Historical distribution block with heavy seller presence Key Demand Zone (84.6k–78k) → Critical retest zone that acts as the last defensive wall for mid-term buyers From here, the market narrative becomes very clear: If BTC loses the 84–78k zone, Wave (5) becomes highly probable — targeting 72k, with an extended risk toward 55k if capitulation unfolds. --- 📉 Bearish Scenario — “The Final Flush” This is the dominant scenario if the impulse structure continues to hold. 1. Strong rejection from the 92k Supply Zone If BTC fails to reclaim 92k on a 3D close, Wave (4) is likely complete. 2. Breakdown below 84–78k This signals buyer exhaustion and confirms momentum toward Wave (5). 3. Wave (5) targets: 72k → primary target 55k → extreme capitulation target (similar to 2019 or 2021 flushes) This scenario becomes fully validated with a decisive 3D close below 84k. Volume confirmation will be crucial. --- 📈 Bullish Scenario — “Wave Failure & Trap Reversal” For BTC to invalidate the bearish structure, buyers must deliver a strong response: 1. A powerful bounce from the 84.6k–78k zone Not just a wick, but a 3D bullish engulfing with strong volume. 2. A clean break + 3D close above 92k This invalidates the bearish wave count and opens the door to 105–110k. 3. Formation of a new Higher Low above 84k A structural confirmation that bulls regain control. This bullish scenario is less likely — but in crypto, “unlikely” doesn’t mean “impossible,” especially if the market is setting up a bull trap before the next major leg. --- 🎯 Key Levels to Watch 92,000 → Major Supply / Macro resistance 84,660 – 78,000 → Key Demand Zone / Buyer defense block 72,000 → Critical support & Wave (5) ideal target 55,000 → Deep support if a capitulation event unfolds --- 📊 Why This Pattern Matters A 5-wave impulsive decline typically appears at either: The beginning of a major correction, or The end of a macro bullish expansion If BTC reaches 72k: It could become the largest accumulation zone before the next bull expansion Or signal the completion of the previous macro cycle Either way, the next move will shape BTC’s direction for the next 6–12 months. --- #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCAnalysis #CryptoOutlook #ElliottWave #PriceAction #CryptoMarket #BTCBearish #BTCBullish #MarketStructure #CryptoTA
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoNuclear
BTC Outlook: 90K Zone Retest PossibleBTC Outlook: 90K Zone Retest Possible BTC has entered a strong reaction zone around 82–85K, which historically acts as a demand block. The initial bounce from this area suggests buyers are stepping in again. Key Reasons a Move Back to 90K Is Possible: 1. Strong Demand Zone (82–85K) BTC is showing clear absorption of selling pressure. This is typically the first step before a reversal toward higher resistance levels. 2. Market Structure Reversal Pattern Your chart indicates a potential W-bottom / reclamation setup. Once BTC holds above 85.6K, momentum usually shifts bullish. 3. Liquidity Above (88–90K) There’s a large cluster of untapped liquidity at 88–90K where previous breakdowns occurred. Market makers are incentivized to push price back up to that zone. 4. 90.3K = First Major Resistance Target The yellow line at 90,370 aligns with: HTF resistance Former support flip Liquidity target Perfect location for a retest. Scenario Path (Matches Your Green Projection): Bounce from 82–85K Break above 85.6K reclaim First target → 87K Pullback / consolidation Final push → 89.5K–90.3K
Long
by SatochiTrader