AAL - Got Any More Of That Stimulus Yet?If you check back in with our previous charts, you'll see we have been accumulating AAL between $11.50-$14.00 for a while now. The airlines are still patiently waiting for additional aid from Congress which will be a huge move up for the whole sector. While there has been support on both sides for further stimulus, there's still certain disagreements that have led to an elongated standstill forcing airlines to cut costs where it can (furloughing employees, cutting flight paths, leaving cities, etc.). Will still say this, more people are definitely flying now than the previous months. This past weekend alone, TSA said it screened more than 3 million travelers at US airports (1,047,934 on just Sunday), which made it the busiest travel day since the pandemic started. While this is good news, these are numbers are still 57% below 2019 levels, but it's a start.
TA:
At the moment $AAL is hitting resistance at 3 major levels for us: Our down trendline in purple since October 2018, The daily 200EMA, and .618 Fib level. A break in these levels would bullish and we would look for the new support resistance after this.
Updated Targets:
1. $17.20
2. $19.36
3. $22.00
Watching closely, and will come back with more updates.
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AAL
BULLISH!!As we can see it is going only in one way and that is up! We can hold till the end of December as a short or till Feb-March when i expect that there will be a vaccine. In addition, we know that if Pfizer comes out with the vaccine - AAL will be in a cooperation with them as a use of travel(that is something really good). Hope you appreciate my opinion. I would be grateful if you share your comments.
Targets:
17$
20$
23$
30$...
**REQUEST** $AAL $INO $DKNG $SRNE *QUICK TA*Thanks @smallcapper on Stocktwits for reaching out! Here ya go!
AAL Still Choppy NASDAQ:AAL has been moving between 11.30 and 14.13 since earlier this Summer. Election time is truly the moment of truth. With a second stimulus bill in the works the main question that remains is when? Higher lows on the CMF shows that initiative for buyers is clearly there, comparatively to other dips it has formed a similar pattern. The earning beat is positive for AAL however furloughs have been hard on the workers and the company is clearly struggling. There is reason to believe that airlines will recover nicely with stimilus as we have seen recovery across the board with House elections more clear. Once stimulus hits there will likely be another big buyback likely followed by a dump. The area I would look to hold AAL until is around 19.38, I have enough reason to believe that area will be liquid for the stock and create a pullback. A strong push above this line (likely a result of an innovation of product or vaccine development) could lead to the line serving as a moderate support until we have more information. AAL is a strong buy above 12.05. These lines were drawn on historical price action, however it is important to note since the initial COVID-19 low and swing high the Fib levels have matched up nicely with these levels
AAL on watchAAL has provided a couple loading zones during this pandemic. Recently price target cut, rating to strong sell and poor performance might let it reach lower lows (at loading trucks). Consider watching this strong support area for a short bounce swing play. Only enter if reversal is confirmed. Thank you.
SPAQ loading area $11-13This is going to $20-30 most likely after ticker change, load up around this area for the big reward. I'm personally loading Feburary 21' calls! Henrik Fisker mentioned merger could be mid-October, hopefully its true!
THE WEEK AHEAD: AAL, TSLA, SNAP, NFLX EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJ, SLVEARNINGS:
Got a bunch of potentially worthwhile, earnings announcement volatility contraction plays on tap this coming week. Here there are, ordered by "bang for your buck":
AAL (29/99/19.7%), announcing Thursday before market open: Due to its size, I would probably go short straddle or iron fly, with the November 20th 12 short straddle paying 2.46 (19.7% as a function of stock price), and the November 20th 8/12/12/16 four-wide iron fly, paying 2.00 even.
TSLA (29/79/19.1%), announcing on Wednesday after market close. Pictured here is a 10-wide iron condor, with the short option legs set up at the 20 delta. Markets are showing wide in the after hours, but would adjust strikes as necessary to get at least one-third the width of your wings in credit (i.e., 3.33 for a 10 wide, 1.67 for a five, etc.).
SNAP (35/97/17.2%), announcing Tuesday after market close. The November 20th 19 delta 24/35 short strangle was paying 1.35 at the mid price, with the defined risk 22/25/33/36 iron condor paying 1.11.
NFLX (43/62/14.3%), announcing on Tuesday after market close. The November 20th 455/465/635/645 was paying 3.91 at the mid price as of Friday close. As with the TSLA defined risk play, look to adjust strikes as necessary to get at least one-third the width of your wings in credit.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS, RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING GREATER THAN 10%:
XOP (14/55/13.1%)
GDXJ (18/49/12.6%)
SLV (39/50/11.2%)
XLE (26/45/10.2%)
EWZ (15/42/10.0%)
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (33/35/8.0%)
IWM (29/33/7.2%)
SPY (23/27/5.8%)
EFA (18/22/4.6%)
IRA DIVIDEND EARNERS, RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING GREATER THAN 10%:
SLV (39/40/11.2%)*
XLE (26/45/10.2%)
KRE (24/43/10.1%)
EWZ (15/42/10.1%)
MUSINGS:
16 days left until the general election. Out of an abundance of caution, I'm not adding anything here, but may do some "window dressing" rolls of my IWM and QQQ shorts puts I have on in the November 20th expiry just to lock in realized profit, and I'll do an educational post as to what that would entail. Handsitting, thumb twiddling while the markets do their thing is the hardest part ... .
* -- Neither SLV nor GLD pay a dividend.