ADR
GBPUSD Long: Possible Wedge breakoutGBPUSD is forming a wedge on the 1H chart. The 15m chart is now showing bullish signs as well with the APRR oscillator forming a triangle and pinbar support forming at resistance from the daily range minimum.
GGAL: Perfect short setup in the makingGGAL is offering a great short setup here. This is an ADR (American depositary receipt), that is, basically, a foreign stock that is traded in an american exchange. It's of special interest since I'm from Argentina. Fellow argentinians can take note of this setup and trade it in the local market as well. Upside risk is the same, despite the ADR being priced in dollars, so the stop loss is easy to calculate: use the recent highest high.
Target is the bare minimum this stock should fall, and can possibly evolve into a larger move, since the Rgmov indicator is firmly planted in negative territory, without showing any new 44 bar high yet, after plotting a 44 bar low before.
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Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
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We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
Petrobras Brasileiro: Corruption undermines Fitch RatingI've flagged Brazil's state-owned mega-energy firm Petrobras Brasileiro ADR (NYSE: PBR) because the SEC is investigating the energy firm for money-laundering and corruption, thus skewing Fitch Ratings of PBR. Since PBR owns a Texan refinery, PBR it is accountable under US jurisdiction. PBR has been found in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and "other laws". I highly suspect "other laws" may very well be The Racketeer Influenced and Corruption Organizations Act (RICO), taking into account PBR's "cartel" influence in the global energy sector.
$PBR closed at $10.50 at the closing bell; -$.34 or -3.14%. Its price range was $11.51 at pre-market, opening around $11.15 then plummeting down to $10.41 during Wall Street's Witching Hour.
What is more shocking is to learn that the Fitch Ratings just released at the same time; gave an upgrade on the series of notes to "BBB"; the "issuance of which are backed by the royalty flows owed by oil concessionaires, predominately, PBR, and Rio De Janeiro (RJS), of which 100% flows to RioPrevidencia (RP), the states pension fund."
In part, the USD 1.1 billion series 2014-3 notes 'BBB', Outlook Stable and BRl 2.4 billion series 2014-2 special indebtedness interests notes affirmed at 'AAAsf(bra)', Outlook Stable.
PBR's cartel is backing a capital investment program at USD 220 billion between 2014 and 2018.
PBR is an asset to be used when the market performance is shaky. Its personality
Currently the downside calculation of price per share: $.54.
Why Markets Could Dip 10% or more?The last time ADR peaked above 3.5x was followed by 11% drop by S&P500. Most recent ADR peak stood at 7.38x registered last month. That is double the 3.5x extreme level, which suggests extreme overoptimism for stocks. Usually, as history shows, it is followed by at least 10% correction.
ADR proved to be extremely useful market peak spotting tool. For explanation and historical back-test check here:
www.capitalhubs.com
Best
CH
