EURUSD – Daily Outlook & Two Trade Ideas🔥 Daily Model Expectation
The market is currently stuck between two major liquidity pools:
1. Above:
• Yesterday’s high (YDH)
• The 1.15498 level
• The premium external liquidity cluster
2. Below:
• Yesterday’s low (YDL)
• The weekly –1.5 SD band
• Discount external liquidity
The daily model suggests:
• We still owe a proper daily retracement (likely into NY session).
• This usually means Asia + London form chop / Judas setups,
→ then NY delivers the expansion leg.
Because neither Asia nor London has raided the daily external levels yet, today is likely to produce:
• One sweep up or
• One sweep down
…before the true move happens.
That’s why both scenarios you drew are valid and logical.
Scenario A – Bullish Sweep → Retracement → Expansion Up
Narrative
Price may:
1. Move lower first
• Raid the internal range lows
• Tag the 0.705 / 0.79 retracement levels
• Fill the fair value pockets around 1.15150 – 1.15250
• Dip into Y50% (yesterday’s 50%)
2. Then reverse from discount
• Break structure (BOS) on 5m
• Confirm demand
• Push upward into premium
Final Target
• 1.15498 (YDH liquidity)
• Possibly higher into 1.15620 – 1.15750
Reasoning
• Uncollected buy-side liquidity above
• Clean inefficiencies up
• Thursday tends to create a weekly expansion after sweeping lows
• The discount range has untouched imbalance + displacement origin
🟥 Scenario B – Failure to Reach Premium → Direct Sell-Off
Narrative
Price may:
1. Reject directly at the current 1.15350–1.15400 zone
• This zone aligns with yesterday’s mid premium
• It is a breaker + last distribution high
2. Then break down
• Take out Asian + London lows
• Drop to the weekly discount zone below
Final Target
• 1.15156 (your red box external liquidity)
• 1.15019 (daily/weekly discount)
• Optionally 1.14982 (full range completion)
Reasoning
• This is a classic Thursday weekly cycle continuation move
• If Tuesday’s high was the weekly high, Thursday will seek weekly low
• The 5m internal range did not break up → suggests weakness
• NY model would naturally deliver the expansion downward
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🌍 Together with the Daily Expectation
So the overall message is:
“We are between external liquidity on both sides. Asia + London created a neutral, compressed range. NY will decide today’s expansion. I expect either a raid down into discount before pushing up (Scenario A), or a straight rejection from current premium levels for a full drop into weekly lows (Scenario B). Both moves fit the daily model and Thursday’s weekly cycle behavior.”
