Smaller alts, a constructive outlookThe Big Question: Will We Finally See Moves on Alts?
The past month – or rather the past 6 weeks – has been nothing short of frustrating for altcoin traders. Most individual charts looked stagnant, choppy, or simply lacked momentum. But zooming out to the Total chart, the picture is much clearer, and the answer looks like a confident YES .
What the Chart Tells Us
• After the December 2024 top, we witnessed a deep correction, which finally bottomed on 7 April, during the infamous tariff mania .
• From there, an initial leg up developed, reaching resistance around the 300B mark.
• The correction that followed was healthy: it established a higher low, confirming that the bottom was not just a dead cat bounce.
• The next attempt pushed even deeper into resistance, creating a higher high – a strong bullish sign.
• Since the end of July, things have turned even more interesting: the market has been pressing hard into resistance, and we could even argue the formation of a continuation Head & Shoulders setup.
Where We Are Now
At the time of posting, the Total chart is testing resistance at ~310B once again. The more this level gets tested, the weaker it becomes. A breakout from here doesn’t just look possible – it looks almost unavoidable .
What to Expect Next
When that resistance finally breaks, the tension built up over months of sideways action – and the frustration of traders who have been waiting for more than half a year – will likely unleash a strong acceleration.
In my view, we could easily see a 50% rally, taking the Total chart back to the December 2024 highs.
🚀 The stage is set. All that’s missing is the trigger.
ALTS
TOTAL2 - Very Strong Bullish Favor This trend line is amazing. I know its the regular chart rather than the log but it can still be applied.
Look at the current position on the trend line and the candles that are progressing
A massive breakout is coming for alts
XRP and ETH are leading this breakout I believe
VERY bullish
Why Altcoins Are Weak in This Bull Run?The crypto market is in a bull run, but something feels different this time. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are setting new highs, many altcoins are struggling to keep up. In previous cycles, altcoins often outperformed once Bitcoin found stability — but this round looks weaker. Here are a few reasons why altcoins are underperforming:
✅ Bitcoin Dominance Is Rising
Capital flows in crypto follow a cycle. Early bull phases usually start with Bitcoin, as institutions and large investors prefer its liquidity and reputation as a "safer" crypto asset. Bitcoin dominance has been climbing, signaling that capital is consolidating into BTC instead of spreading into smaller, riskier altcoins.
✅ Liquidity Is Thinner Across the Market
Unlike previous cycles, global liquidity conditions are tighter. With interest rates higher and risk appetite lower, speculative capital isn’t flooding into altcoins at the same pace. Most investors would rather deploy into BTC or ETH than gamble on small-cap tokens with uncertain narratives.
✅ Regulation & Exchange Listings Matter More
This cycle is also shaped by increased regulatory scrutiny. Many altcoins face delisting risks or uncertainty around whether they qualify as securities. This discourages both retail and institutional investors from rotating heavily into alts.
✅ Narratives Are Narrower
In past cycles, new sectors (DeFi in 2020, Metaverse in 2021) created explosive altcoin rallies. This time, the strongest narratives are Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum staking. Without a fresh, sector-wide altcoin narrative, capital rotation is limited to a few selective themes like AI coins or Real-World Assets (RWA), rather than lifting the entire alt market.
✅ Market Maturity & Survivorship Bias
The crypto market has matured. Many speculative altcoins from past cycles have faded or collapsed. Survivors now trade more in line with fundamentals and adoption, meaning the era of every token pumping in unison is over.
Conclusion
Altcoins are weaker in this bull run because the cycle is more institutional, more selective, and more Bitcoin-focused. That doesn’t mean altcoins won’t have their moment, but traders should be more careful this time. Instead of chasing every low-cap token, focus on strong narratives, liquidity, and projects with real adoption.
Altseason may come, but it won’t look like the ones of the past.
Cheers
Hexa
BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:ETHUSDT CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:ETH CRYPTOCAP:XRP CRYPTOCAP:BNB
Eth to 4k!?Ethereum seems to be grinding through a corrective pullback, and the price action around 4K is shaping up to be the next major test. If this dip continues to unfold in a corrective fashion, the area of interest (AOI) and levels of interest (LOIs) shown on the chart are where I’ll be watching closely.
The wave count remains clean here. We’ve got confluence stacking around the 4K region, with support zones lining up against standard Fibonacci retracement levels. If price tags those areas while printing corrective structure, it keeps the bigger bullish roadmap intact.
On the upside, 4.5K is the level that keeps capping bulls. Ethereum’s failed attempts to break through highlight its strength as resistance. If price makes another push and finally clears that ceiling, I’d have to reassess whether I’ve leaned too bearish in this pullback. A decisive reclaim would show just how much momentum buyers have left in the tank.
Key Outlook:
4K region = next AOI for a corrective test
3,888 and 3,502 = deeper LOIs if selling pressure extends
4.5K break = potential shift back into aggressive bullish territory
For now, patience is key. If ETH prints corrective structure into these downside levels, the larger Elliott Wave framework still points toward a bullish continuation. But without a strong break above 4.5K, the market hasn’t proven the bulls are back in control....yet
***REMINDER*** of the TOTAL 3 Targets.We are on the cusp of price discovery in many key assets that will contribute to the upcoming alt season.
The Russell 2000 #RTY is close to all time highs..
#GOLD is charging ahead which often pulls up ~BTC
#ETHEREUM hit a new all time already and retraced ... so the next break above will likely see price discovery and vacuum price action to fib extension around $7.5k
#BTCd dominance has topped.
This cup and handle for Total 3 has been a long time in the making which suggests a powerful move is likely to occur.
Alt-Season or Alt-Control-Delete.?🤖💣 Alt-Season or Alt-Control-Delete.? 🧠📉
The market looks like it's a bout to rug someone... and it might just be Trump.
While President Trump narrows down his Fed Chair shortlist, the real driver — Powell — is still at the wheel. But the car? It's swerving dangerously near the edge. BTC has lost a key S/R level, the S&P 500 is at major resistance, and Total Crypto Market Cap is stalling at a crucial decision point.
Despite the hype around altcoins and "recovery rallies," I’m deeply cautious. JP Morgan and Bank of America stocks might dip after Trump’s public accusations — signaling that institutions might already be repositioning. Capital tends to exit before the narrative shifts... and that shift could be incoming.
The chart says it best:
👀 BTC beneath S/R
🎲 S&P 500 gamblers partying at resistance
🧠 Meme coin mania while total crypto hits S/R
🧨 Trump’s signaling right, but Powell might yank the wheel left...
This could all be the calm before a liquidity flush.
Stay sharp, don’t follow the crowd — follow the capital.
That said , Bitcoin remains my favorite asset — especially in times of systemic risk. Remember what history shows us: when banks stumble or go bust, Bitcoin tends to rise. If there's one asset in the world I want to carry through a storm, it's Bitcoin. The decentralized antidote to centralized chaos.
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
ps. we might see a breakout and Fomo for good reasons...why not? but for now my charts are screaming: CAREFUL!
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
SPX 6900 looking weak , big drop coming?SPX has been a monster for most of 2025 but now showing signs of weakness , weekly lower high trend was the first warning.
Now formed massive rising wedge would be careful with this for now wait until its under one dollar to pick up some more.
This trendline is very important , see how the monthly closes on this one.
XLM/USDT Secondary trend. 14 04 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. After a big pump "with a stick" (so that the "waiters" who want "a little cheaper" would not have time to buy) +8.5X from the accumulation zone of 2.4 years, now a descending wedge is forming on the rollback, similar to 2017. Breaking through its resistance (breaking the downward trend) - the second wave of price growth:
1) through consolidation and sideways movement (cutting the zone, dumping "in waves").
2) aggressive pump as in 2017 "with a stick" and entry into the main distribution zone (late autumn 2025)
The previous idea of the secondary trend was published on 14 01 2024 Exactly when the position was being collected in the horizontal channel in the 4 zones shown, as well as the reversal zone and the percentage of this first strong pump (under XRP).
XLM/USDT Secondary trend. 14 01 2024
XLM/USD Main trend. Timeframe 1 week. Channel. Publication in 2022.
Local wedge breakout zone.
Crypto Market Cap (Others) – Ready for Breakout?When it comes to trading or investing, for sure we all want the best return possible. With both BTC and ETH at or very near ATHs, most of us are naturally looking at lower cap alts for opportunities.
For this reason, let’s analyze the chart for Crypto Market Cap excluding Top 10 and stablecoins.
Note: Although since the 2021 bottom there have literally been hundreds of thousands of new coins launched, I still consider this chart highly relevant.
The recent price action is clear:
• Since the July bottom, “Others” has shown a timid but constructive recovery.
• A higher low was confirmed at the beginning of August.
• A tight consolidation is now pressing against resistance.
On the 2H chart, this consolidation looks very promising, with pressure building for a breakout. Technically, a move above 7.88% dominance could trigger acceleration toward 8.88%, and if the optimism holds, even a medium-term extension toward 12% is possible.
📈 Trading Plan:
Look for coins in the Top 100 (excluding Top 10) that already show bullish chart structures. Combining this with the strong setup in the “Others” chart could be a solid approach to maximize returns in this phase of the market.
Massive ALTSEASON ahead.The Crypto Total Market Cap (excluding the Top 10) is staging a strong bounce on its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which as you see has been closing all 1M candles above it since November 2023!
With the multi-year pattern being a Channel Up, we are experiencing a prolonged Accumulation Phase similar to 2019. That gave rise to a Higher High on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This time the accumulation even takes place above the 0.5 Fib.
If the same 1.618 Fib Target is repeated, we are looking at a possible 1.63 Trillion market cap.
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Today’s Crypto Market – From Ethereum Strength to ALTS Setup📅🔥 Today’s Crypto Market – From Ethereum Strength to ALTS Setup 🚀💡
In today’s market update video, we broke down what could be the critical handoff from Ethereum’s dominance to a broader ALT season.
The sequence is clear:
1️⃣ Bitcoin led the way.
2️⃣ Ethereum took control, smashing through $4,100.
3️⃣ Altcoins now have the setup to run, with BTC dominance breaking lower.
🎯 Key Levels from Today’s Charts:
Ethereum (ETH/USD) – $4,222 with breakout above $4,100.3; upside targets $4,420 – $4,800; supports at $4,005.9 and $3,789.6.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Breaking out from wedge at $117,500; supports $115,803 & $115,054; upside potential to $120K+ and $122,795.8.
ARB/USDT – Rebound from $0.3784 aiming for $0.5380; key support $0.3500 and $0.2722.
Cardano (ADA/USDT) – At $0.8131; resistance $1.1930, then $1.4757; support $0.6799, $0.4112.
BTC Dominance – Breakdown under 60.80%, supports 58.34% & 56.91% — historically a strong trigger for ALT rallies.
📽️ Full breakdown and reasoning are in today’s video — we looked at why BTC dominance losing support is the green light for possible sector rotation, and which alts are primed.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
MEME Main trend -97% Channel. Reversal or scam zone.Logarithm. Time frame 3 days (less is not needed).
🟡 The price has reached a decline from the highs (not a listing squeeze) -97%. These are practically the maximums of declines after the hype for cryptocurrencies of such liquidity (96-98), after which there is only a complete scam. At the moment, there is a reaction from this zone (the lower zone of the main trend channel) (impulse buyback), and a rollback after it, which forms the canvas of a potential ascending flag. If there is a breakthrough, then locally - the implementation of the ascending flag.
⚠️🔼 These are high-risk cryptocurrencies of such liquidity (that's why such declines are big), but the percentage of price growth in them, for the same reasons (liquidity/volatility) is an order of magnitude greater in the case of their implementation. When working with such assets, observe money management.
🟣 Implementation of the flag's goals (essentially to the channel median) +80-100%
🟡 To the resistance of the descending channel of the main trend +325%
🔵 To potential highs (one of the previous consolidations) +1000-1300%.
VARA, DEAD Altcoin or SWING TRADE King ?In the daily timeframe, VARA has lost a lot of liquidity, trading nearly 90% lower than December last year.
The macro outlook is definitely grim, but that doesn't mean vara can't be traded in lower timeframes for swing trades. Although I doubt that it will reclaim it's previous highs, a good +15% here and there is still reasonable to expect in lower timeframes.
In the 4H, VARA has been trading in very evident cycles ranging from bullish to bearish. The current cycle, being bearish until we see a reversal of higher lows and higher highs.
When considering the 1H timeframe, VARA often increases 10% up in a few days, which makes for a great swing. The best strategy being buy low and sell high, aiming for +10% which is relatively low risk.
A great starting point to trade coins like VARA would be first t o look at the macro - aka the weekly or zoom out in the daily. What's the general trend direction, are we making higher highs or lower lows?
Form there, you can move to the 4h and do the same - using trendlines to guide support and possible bounce zones. Remember to keep the stop loss tight as the macro is currently bearish, which makes longs higher risk.
Overall, many alts that have been released after the "titans" struggle to hold opening day prices. Few and far are those who actually reclaim and make higher highs 12 months later. And although these coins have more volatility and are great for swing trades, I wouldn't exactly consider them for accumulation.
Sonic ($S) – Rebound After Heavy DownsideAfter months of downside, $S looks ready to repeat its historical cycle of massive accumulations followed by explosive breakouts.
✅ Previous cycles show gains of +1,600%, +5,600%, and +900% after similar consolidation phases.
✅ The current falling wedge breakout on the weekly chart suggests that momentum is shifting back in favor of the bulls.
✅ Strong fundamentals are aligning:
Testnet 2.1 upgrade (Aug 12) integrated Ethereum’s Pectra for scalability & interoperability.
TVL inflows of $21M and growing trading volume (June $3.1B → July $4.9B).
US expansion plans (ETF, NASDAQ PIPE, Delaware entity) with governance vote ending Aug 31.
🎯 Targets Ahead
First resistance: $0.54
Mid-term: $0.84 → $1.45
Long-term (cycle projection): $9 → $15+
⚡️ History shows what happens after long consolidations: parabolic runs. With fundamentals lining up and technicals breaking out, this could be the beginning of Sonic’s next major cycle.
💡 “After all the downside, it’s time for $S to return – the setup looks explosive.”