Crypto Market Cap (Others) – Ready for Breakout?When it comes to trading or investing, for sure we all want the best return possible. With both BTC and ETH at or very near ATHs, most of us are naturally looking at lower cap alts for opportunities.
For this reason, let’s analyze the chart for Crypto Market Cap excluding Top 10 and stablecoins.
Note: Although since the 2021 bottom there have literally been hundreds of thousands of new coins launched, I still consider this chart highly relevant.
The recent price action is clear:
• Since the July bottom, “Others” has shown a timid but constructive recovery.
• A higher low was confirmed at the beginning of August.
• A tight consolidation is now pressing against resistance.
On the 2H chart, this consolidation looks very promising, with pressure building for a breakout. Technically, a move above 7.88% dominance could trigger acceleration toward 8.88%, and if the optimism holds, even a medium-term extension toward 12% is possible.
📈 Trading Plan:
Look for coins in the Top 100 (excluding Top 10) that already show bullish chart structures. Combining this with the strong setup in the “Others” chart could be a solid approach to maximize returns in this phase of the market.
ALTS
Massive ALTSEASON ahead.The Crypto Total Market Cap (excluding the Top 10) is staging a strong bounce on its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which as you see has been closing all 1M candles above it since November 2023!
With the multi-year pattern being a Channel Up, we are experiencing a prolonged Accumulation Phase similar to 2019. That gave rise to a Higher High on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This time the accumulation even takes place above the 0.5 Fib.
If the same 1.618 Fib Target is repeated, we are looking at a possible 1.63 Trillion market cap.
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Today’s Crypto Market – From Ethereum Strength to ALTS Setup📅🔥 Today’s Crypto Market – From Ethereum Strength to ALTS Setup 🚀💡
In today’s market update video, we broke down what could be the critical handoff from Ethereum’s dominance to a broader ALT season.
The sequence is clear:
1️⃣ Bitcoin led the way.
2️⃣ Ethereum took control, smashing through $4,100.
3️⃣ Altcoins now have the setup to run, with BTC dominance breaking lower.
🎯 Key Levels from Today’s Charts:
Ethereum (ETH/USD) – $4,222 with breakout above $4,100.3; upside targets $4,420 – $4,800; supports at $4,005.9 and $3,789.6.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Breaking out from wedge at $117,500; supports $115,803 & $115,054; upside potential to $120K+ and $122,795.8.
ARB/USDT – Rebound from $0.3784 aiming for $0.5380; key support $0.3500 and $0.2722.
Cardano (ADA/USDT) – At $0.8131; resistance $1.1930, then $1.4757; support $0.6799, $0.4112.
BTC Dominance – Breakdown under 60.80%, supports 58.34% & 56.91% — historically a strong trigger for ALT rallies.
📽️ Full breakdown and reasoning are in today’s video — we looked at why BTC dominance losing support is the green light for possible sector rotation, and which alts are primed.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
MEME Main trend -97% Channel. Reversal or scam zone.Logarithm. Time frame 3 days (less is not needed).
🟡 The price has reached a decline from the highs (not a listing squeeze) -97%. These are practically the maximums of declines after the hype for cryptocurrencies of such liquidity (96-98), after which there is only a complete scam. At the moment, there is a reaction from this zone (the lower zone of the main trend channel) (impulse buyback), and a rollback after it, which forms the canvas of a potential ascending flag. If there is a breakthrough, then locally - the implementation of the ascending flag.
⚠️🔼 These are high-risk cryptocurrencies of such liquidity (that's why such declines are big), but the percentage of price growth in them, for the same reasons (liquidity/volatility) is an order of magnitude greater in the case of their implementation. When working with such assets, observe money management.
🟣 Implementation of the flag's goals (essentially to the channel median) +80-100%
🟡 To the resistance of the descending channel of the main trend +325%
🔵 To potential highs (one of the previous consolidations) +1000-1300%.
VARA, DEAD Altcoin or SWING TRADE King ?In the daily timeframe, VARA has lost a lot of liquidity, trading nearly 90% lower than December last year.
The macro outlook is definitely grim, but that doesn't mean vara can't be traded in lower timeframes for swing trades. Although I doubt that it will reclaim it's previous highs, a good +15% here and there is still reasonable to expect in lower timeframes.
In the 4H, VARA has been trading in very evident cycles ranging from bullish to bearish. The current cycle, being bearish until we see a reversal of higher lows and higher highs.
When considering the 1H timeframe, VARA often increases 10% up in a few days, which makes for a great swing. The best strategy being buy low and sell high, aiming for +10% which is relatively low risk.
A great starting point to trade coins like VARA would be first t o look at the macro - aka the weekly or zoom out in the daily. What's the general trend direction, are we making higher highs or lower lows?
Form there, you can move to the 4h and do the same - using trendlines to guide support and possible bounce zones. Remember to keep the stop loss tight as the macro is currently bearish, which makes longs higher risk.
Overall, many alts that have been released after the "titans" struggle to hold opening day prices. Few and far are those who actually reclaim and make higher highs 12 months later. And although these coins have more volatility and are great for swing trades, I wouldn't exactly consider them for accumulation.
Sonic ($S) – Rebound After Heavy DownsideAfter months of downside, $S looks ready to repeat its historical cycle of massive accumulations followed by explosive breakouts.
✅ Previous cycles show gains of +1,600%, +5,600%, and +900% after similar consolidation phases.
✅ The current falling wedge breakout on the weekly chart suggests that momentum is shifting back in favor of the bulls.
✅ Strong fundamentals are aligning:
Testnet 2.1 upgrade (Aug 12) integrated Ethereum’s Pectra for scalability & interoperability.
TVL inflows of $21M and growing trading volume (June $3.1B → July $4.9B).
US expansion plans (ETF, NASDAQ PIPE, Delaware entity) with governance vote ending Aug 31.
🎯 Targets Ahead
First resistance: $0.54
Mid-term: $0.84 → $1.45
Long-term (cycle projection): $9 → $15+
⚡️ History shows what happens after long consolidations: parabolic runs. With fundamentals lining up and technicals breaking out, this could be the beginning of Sonic’s next major cycle.
💡 “After all the downside, it’s time for $S to return – the setup looks explosive.”
Investing vs. Speculating in Crypto: Stop Mixing the TwoThe crypto market is in a correction, and every time this happens, I see the same pattern repeat: traders and investors talking about the moon — expecting 10x or 100x — but the moment their coin drops by 10%, they panic. They ask “What’s wrong?” or panic that the project is failing.
This is a misunderstanding of what it means to invest versus what it means to speculate. Let’s clear that up.
🚀 The Investor’s Perspective
If you believe Bitcoin is going to 500,000 USD, do you really care if it dips under 100k before reversing?
If you bought Solana with the vision of 1,000 USD, why should a retest of 150 USD make you nervous?
Investors understand:
Markets never move in a straight line.
Patience is essential — big returns require time.
Short-term corrections don’t change a solid long-term thesis.
If you’re aiming for 5x or 10x, you must accept that it takes months or years, not days.
⚡ The Speculator’s Perspective
Speculators play a different game:
They focus on short-term setups.
They use technical analysis and momentum.
They might even short-sell when the conditions align.
Both are fine — but the problem begins when people think they’re “investors” while acting like speculators every time the market moves against them.
🎯 Targets, Plans, and Patience
Here’s what most forget:
The market isn’t a straight line up designed for your convenience or for your dream Lambo
You need to set a clear target and be patient.
Want 5x on BTC? Or 10x on a strong altcoin? Then you’ll have to wait for it.
If you expect daily gains and can’t handle normal corrections, you’re not investing — you’re speculating without realizing it.
🤡 The Quick 10x Illusion
Yes, you can chase 10x in a day or two with meme coins on DEXes. Sometimes it works, most times it ends with rugs or sudden collapses. That’s not investing. That’s just gambling, and you can’t complain when it goes wrong.
✅ Final Thoughts
Decide who you are:
As an investor, set your targets, trust your thesis, and don’t panic on corrections.
As a speculator, play the short-term moves but accept the inherent risks and use discipline.
Crypto can deliver very big returns — but only if you stop mixing long-term conviction with short-term panic.
Patience and discipline will always beat hype. 🚀
P.S.
Let’s take a concrete example: since April, ETH tripled in value in a nearly straight line. What do you expect — for it to keep rising like that to 25k by the end of the year?
Do you look at your portfolio daily expecting more money every single day?
Think also of those who bought ETH with 10 million dollars, not just 3 ETH for 5k.
Maybe they want to mark profits.
Maybe they need a new yacht:)
Their selling affects the market too — and corrections are part of the bull runs.
$ETH Topping Without All Time High?Has the most anticipated all time high of the year been cancelled? The crowd does not get what it wants! Everyone from CNBC to my grandmas goldfish have been bullish on ETH for the past few months so what a fitting psychological mess it would be if we significantly pulled back here!
Firstly it may just be a temporary set back to the High Volume Node support at $3900 before a move to all time high. Even then I am expecting a deeper pullback to set us up for all time high in Q4. Losing this support bring up the ascending daily 200EMA right at the Fibonacci golden pocket, which you can see is the wave 3 high!
The next target, which is my next buy level, is the larger degree Fibonacci golden pocket, major support High Volume Node and wave 4 bottom at $2100. This would be a capitulation area for many!
RSI has printed confirmed bearish divergence with plenty of room to fall.
Safe trading
ARB Main Trend 24 04 2025Logarithm. Time frame 1 week.
Previously a very hyped coin, "killer" of something there...
Now - the dominant opinion is that this is a scam, a scam, "whales are selling now", and so on. It's funny to look at all this and how the opinion changes with the price. Crypto is a mess, there are no other words... That is, now is the time to take a closer look at the asset, and the start of the set.
If the price drops to lower values (shown on the chart), from the position of the trend, and potential percentages of the pump, the price is now acceptable, and the profit will be significant, but not "hamster". Set adequate goals, fix in parts as the trend develops, protect your profit. When there is an aggressive pump "with a stick", by a large %, - completely exit the asset, or protect the profit with a stop.
There is a small probability that an asset of such capitalization, and the unrealization of "buy a candy wrapper", will be knocked down in advance before the full 3rd alt season of this cycle, without distributing "prospects" on the "revival of faith".
⚠️ Now the decline from the maximum is -90% . For assets of such liquidity, these are not the lowest values, but perhaps the previous hype played a role in this. Work from the average price, or on a breakthrough and you will not care when the reversal occurs. The main thing is to distribute the entry and exit points after the purchase in advance, that is, distribute the risk and profit. And, after that, no longer be interested in the asset, or opinions, or fictitious positive / negative news to stimulate demand / supply of "stupid money". Do not get stuck in market noise and unnecessary opinions driven by fear or greed.
1️⃣ If this zone of minimums is held — for starters, the potential for a downward trend of the secondary trend (shown with a red line).
2️⃣ Then, when it is broken , — to the channel median (green dotted line).
🟣Local trend At the moment, a wedge-shaped formation has formed in it, there is an attempt to break through it and the price is clamped.
ARB Secondary trend. 24 04 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days (less is not necessary).
⚠️ Currently a decline from the maximum of -90% . For assets of such liquidity, these are not the lowest values, but perhaps the previous hype played a role in this. Work from the average price, or on a breakout , and you will not care when the reversal occurs. The main thing is to distribute the entry and exit points after the purchase in advance, that is, distribute the risk and profit. And, after that, no longer be interested in the asset, or opinions, or fictitious positive / negative news to stimulate demand / supply of “stupid money”. Do not get stuck in market noise and unnecessary, fear-driven or greed-driven opinions.
Main trend (the entire history of cryptocurrency trading), for clarity of pricing and the zone for work now, which is discussed.
ARB Main Trend 24 04 2025
🟣 Local trend. At the moment, a wedge-shaped formation has formed in it, there is an attempt to break through it and the price is clamped.
1️⃣ If this zone of minimums is held — for a start, the potential for a downward trend of the secondary trend (shown with a red line).
2️⃣ Then, when it is broken through , — to the channel median (green dotted line).
DOGECOIN Flips the Script! Higher Prices Likely Ahead (⊙ˍ⊙)Dogecoin has recently made a stunning 62% increase since my last update:
Find the last update here on a bull season ahead for DOGE:
So what's next for Dogecoin? Well, as long as ETH continues to hold it's current position, alts will continue to rally as they take turns with Ethereum to increase, pause and hold, or slightly pullback. This all happens with BTC above $119k, and it the short term Bitcoin is still looking strong.
There's no way that ETH makes a new ATH and DOGE doesn't. It may take some time, but higher prices are likely on the cards for the near term for Dogecoin!
As long as Bitcoin stays in this zone, ALTS will continue to rally :
Altseason Countdown BeginsThe biggest concern in my head is when to take profits this cycle. Historically, the Dec–Jan timeframe has been best to get out of your bags before the bear erases profits… but I feel more leaned toward using past data relative to the halving instead of exact dates from the halving.
I am looking at BTC dominance currently, comparing it to the 2020 cycle and how it played out. I feel like BTC on its USD pair is almost identical to how it looked back in 2020. In this timeframe, we found a bottom in March and rallied into May, and then consolidated into mid-July. We then rallied and consolidated end of July into August before the historical September dump, followed by the MCT rally.
So to block out all the noise, what does this mean? I feel we will play out the same pattern that BTC had in 2020 on its USD pair, and by looking at BTC dominance during the 2020 March–Sept timeframe, I feel altseason will play out just as it had then, NOW!
By looking at BTC.D during this timeframe, September marked the pivot where instead of dominance dropping, it reversed until topping out in December, before giving us that crazy altseason. I feel since September historically has marked a pivot in BTC.D and a negative month for BTCUSD, we will see a rally in BTC.D just like in 2020, with a top late Q4 of 2025, followed by that altseason rally.
So when do we sell? In this case, I’m looking at the first week of September and marking out the bottom on BTC.D from the first week in Sept to then. This gives us 252 days, which is my main and first target. That would put us from the first week in Sept now into April of 2026, when I believe altcoins will peak. There is another scenario where we can measure out from the first week of Sept to the all-time low of 2020, but I feel it would be irrelevant because the cycle would then have to go on for months longer, which I doubt happening.
So ultimately, I am looking to sell my bags this Dec–January timeframe if I see alts going parabolic and my targets being hit like 5x–10x with BTC.D dropping. But if I don’t see this happening, this will be my exit strategy—targeting the April 2026 altcoin top.
STRK Main Trend 12 04 2025Time frame 1 week for clarity.
Descending channel is the main trend.
Descending wedge is a secondary trend.
Showed the mid-term percentage for targeting potential profit within the channel after breaking through the wedge.
The price reached the lower zone of the descending channel of the main trend -96%.
This is conditionally the bottom for similar assets of such liquidity -95-98% . You can even say the minimums of minimums, beyond which there is only a complete scam, which is probably not distributed as an asset. Throughout the history of the formation of the descending channel, the trading volume was supported, many buybacks. The same volume is also pressuring to buy with “discounts”, what was previously poured "investments for billions of dollars" on Twitter during the listing.
Secondary trend, descending wedge and bearish trend break zone.
Time frame 3 days.
ALTSEASON has already started!The BTC Market Cap Dominance (BTC.D) has made an emphatic rejection at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 8-year Triangle and if it closes the 1M candle of August below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), it will largely confirm the new Bearish Leg.
With the 1M LMACD about to complete its first Bearish Cross in more than 4 years, it is more probable to see this strong and lengthy downtrend target the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Triangle near the 0.1 Fibonacci level, similar to the previous one.
The Target is 43.00%.
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SHRAP Main Trend Play. Twitter 0.44 million. Reversal Zone 08 25Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. Reductions from the maximum distribution (listing, advertising, marketing) by -99%. Faith in the project is completely killed by the previous “investors”. Descending channel, transition to a sideways trend. Potential for a breakthrough of the descending channel and a reversal of the main trend, or the formation of a sideways accumulation and then an exit.
Trader tactics + money management.
1️⃣A certain amount of the deposit is allocated (5-20% depending on your money management and the risk you agree with) for such low-liquidity cryptocurrencies, but with a high potential for price growth in %.
2️⃣ Then 5-10% of this amount is allocated (depending on how many instruments you have in the group) — for the crypto wrapper itself. You should not buy for the entire amount. But, this is the zone of the conditional “bottom”, after which there is a reversal of the trend as a whole or a scam project.
1️⃣ In fact, you can buy at the market (leave some of the limit orders, in case there is a knockout).
2️⃣ or on a breakout of the reversal zone (will be considered your first entry) + diversification limit orders in case of a knockout (under the minimums). But, in general, from the position of the main trend, the price is now acceptable, even by the market.
They will turn it around and pump it up to the previous zone, -90%. That is, all the previous “investors” will “pass by”. However, everything is as usual...
Risk control and money management.
Cryptocurrencies of such liquidity and capitalization below 1000 are high risk (they have little money for advertising and promotion, which is projected onto the price and place of capitalization). But, because of this liquidity (slippage, low real demand/supply with an excess of manipulative demand/supply from the creators, at the right moment they can significantly pump up the bistro by a large percentage, unlike TOP projects, which is impossible. That is, a disadvantage, at a good time, can become an abundance from patient traders or investors. But, you need to remember that often such projects scam, as the money runs out to support the project, especially in protracted bearish periods. Here, asset diversification (10-15 similar wrappers), risk control and banal mathematics win. If you do not have all this, and you are "on the whole cutlet", then it is better not to get involved with such high-risk cryptocurrencies and, as a result, high earning potential, but in %.
Due to low liquidity and, as a result, a large unpredictable slippage, — only spot , no futures or margin. But, these are obvious things.
What this is it . SHRAPNEL is a first-person shooter with elements of evacuation, in which you will fight as a MEF (Mercenary Extraction Force) operator. The SHRAPNEL team consists of experts in the AAA games and blockchain projects industries. We are designers, producers, artists and programmers working at the intersection of games and innovation. Together, we have created some of the largest gaming franchises in the world (Bioshock, Ghost of Tsushima, Halo, Star Wars and others). The team's management has received numerous awards and nominations for their previous work, and SHRAPNEL has already won six industry awards.
A game on the blockchain. When the game was released, they “screwed” a crypto wrapper, naturally, for making money out of nothing. This is essentially good in the long term. But, before the -90% zone, you should get rid of it, at least most of the position.
Twitter: 4.41 million subscribers and bots (potential buyers during the "rebirth of faith"). This is very ok.
The probability of a scam is minimal, since the game is real, and there are a huge number of users. Which are in vain not to use and send advertising in the alt season during the "revival of faith". Interest on such low-liquidity crypto wrappers and with a huge number of potential buyers are significant.
Traded on such exchanges by liquidity:
1️⃣ Top exchanges — 2
2️⃣ Average liquidity — 3
3️⃣ Low-liquidity junk and DEX — 8 (completely ignoring you).
🟣 Locally.
Price slippage by a huge % (which does not affect the trend)
up/down due to liquidity, at will
From these probabilities you should build your
local tactics (stops are meaningless here)
Use this potential volatility,
and do not be afraid (if you work only medium-term or long-term, then you can ignore it).
$SUI Short term bearish move coming?CRYPTOCAP:SUI is currently testing the daily pivot as support which must hold to keep the bullish count alive.
I have 2 Elliot Wave counts, short term bullish and bearish that I am patiently waiting to see unfold. Long term is still bullish.
The white count suggests that we have printed a micro wave (1) and are completing a wave (2) now at the daily pivot just above the daily 200EMA where price should move powerfully in a wave (3) of 3 upwards.
Alternatively, the red count, wave B of a larger corrective could also be complete at the recent swing high and losing the pivot and daily 20EMA would confirm this. Wave C has an initial target of the triple support 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, daily 200EMA and major support High Volume Node at $3 to complete wave 2 and a secondary target of the alt-coin golden pocket 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and S1 daily pivot at $2.7
The bearish analysis is my preferred count due to the amount of confluence, including the fact we are entering mid August and this move would also push daily RSI back into oversold.
This would set up new long signals so look out for those in the Substack Trading Signals
Safe trading
ETH | NEW ATH or DUMP ?Ethereum recently peaked at $3900. And allthough this is not a new ATH (close by a few hundred dollars), it is a local high for the year.
My last update was on an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on ETH, which has since increased over 50%:
(The original idea here:)
The question now, is what's next for ETH - further increase, or are the increases over for the near term and is a correction more likely?
I'm going to say that the increases for ETH are over for now. This is because we correction is most definitely due after such a large increase in a fairly short timeframe. I'm not saying we're heading into a full out bearish cycle, but a 20-25% correction would be most normal at this point.
Additionally, XRP has also made it's peak and lost the high, now trading just under $3. This is a strong sign that the alts have likely already rallied, since XRP used to be the last to increase (if it increased at all, historically. (Thanks Jedd).
I was very lucky to call that top here:
Either way, buyers may use this correction to scoop up on smaller alts over the next few weeks. This ultimately depends on whether the market has ONE MORE pump, and if the correction will bounce back from a 20-25% pullback.
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