Is a rate cut confirmed? Be wary of the market.Non-farm payroll data: US non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August (far below the expected 75,000), the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and June's data was revised downward to -13,000 (the first negative growth since December 2020), marking three consecutive months of slowing job growth. The market has pushed the probability of a September rate cut to 99%. With the release of the non-farm payroll data, a rate cut is now a foregone conclusion, with differing opinions on whether to cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
Gold prices remained strong this week, with the moving average system showing a standard upward divergent pattern. Recently, gold prices have consistently risen against the 5-day moving average, which has become a key short-term support line in the current market.
As the market continues to move, the 3578 high has been broken, raising concerns about upward resistance. Further attention is being paid to the 3610 area. This level represents the current resistance level in the rising channel formed by the highs and lows since gold started its upward trend at 3120, and is also a level to watch next week.
When gold retreats and rebounds and hits the 3610 pressure level next week, we must be wary of a market reversal. The current expectations of interest rate cuts have basically been consumed. In terms of operations next week, Quaid believes that we should gradually participate in short selling, and the key position is around 3610.
