AUDUSD: Monitoring Downside MomentumDaily Timeframe:
Yesterday's session closed with a doji (inside bar). There's a lot of indecision going on. Price is maintaining below the HTL, however, the ranging bars may indicate that there's a lack of selling pressure.
If momentum does not pickup, we might see a fakeout. For the time being, I still maintain a bearish stance on the daily timeframe.
H1 Timeframe:
Price is breaking below the ATL, which is the first indication that momentum may be picking up throughout the Asian session.
Price remains choppy around the EMAs, which is a less reliable momentum signal.
However, I do think this pair has potential if price does not close back above the ATL.
Analysis
EURUSD Short: Setup After Fake Breakout and Supply RejectionHello, traders! The market for EURUSD has been developing within a well-defined descending structure, characterized by lower highs and consistent rejection from the upper supply levels. After the earlier breakout from the falling wedge formation, the price transitioned into a broad consolidation range between the 1.1720 Supply Zone and the 1.1545 Demand Zone. This structure represents a balanced market phase, where buyers and sellers are testing control over short-term direction.
Currently, the price has once again approached the upper boundary of the range — the 1.1720 Supply Level — and faced a clear rejection. This move suggests that sellers are still defending this zone and that the market remains trapped within the broader consolidation phase.
My scenario anticipates a continuation of the decline from the Supply Zone.
The recent rejection confirms the presence of strong selling interest and indicates that the next likely move will be a rotation back toward the Demand Zone near 1.1545. Therefore, I’m watching for continued bearish momentum, with the take-profit target placed at 1.1545, in alignment with the lower boundary of the range. Manage your risk.
Bitcoin Correction Continues: Buyers’ Last Stand at 106KHello, traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. After a strong bullish impulse, BTCUSDT reached a local high and entered a consolidation phase, forming a clear range. The subsequent breakout to the downside signaled the start of the current corrective phase. At the moment, the price is moving within a descending structure, defined by a resistance line from recent lower highs and a support line connecting local lows. The market recently retested the previous Support Level (now acting as resistance) near 109,000 and is showing bearish pressure again. Currently, the price is trading near the Buyer Zone (106,000–107,000), which previously served as a strong demand area. I expect the market to test this zone once again, where buyer reactions will determine the next move. I think that BTC will consolidate between the Buyer Zone and Resistance Line, forming a potential accumulation before any decisive breakout. If buyers manage to defend 106,000, we could see a rebound toward the 110,000–112,000 region. However, a confirmed breakout below the Buyer Zone would open the path to TP1 = 106,300 and possibly extend the correction lower. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
USD/JPY(20251023)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
The shutdown continues, and the US Senate has rejected the temporary funding bill for the 12th time.
Technical Analysis:
Today's buy/sell levels:
151.83
Support and resistance levels:
152.38
152.17
152.04
151.61
151.48
151.27
Trading Strategy:
If the stock breaks above 152.04, consider buying, with the first target price being 152.17.
If the stock breaks below 151.83, consider selling, with the first target price being 151.61.
GBP/USD - Fundamental Drive Ahead! (21.10.2025)🧠 Setup Overview:
GBP/USD has broken below its rising trendline after testing the 1.3470 resistance zone multiple times. The pair is under fundamental selling pressure, fueled by risk aversion and renewed U.S. dollar strength.
Fundamental Drivers:
1️⃣ U.S. markets gained as President Trump decided not to impose very high tariffs on Chinese goods, which temporarily boosted sentiment.
2️⃣ However, investors are now digesting U.S. credit risks and US–China trade tensions, both adding safe-haven demand to the USD.
3️⃣ Meanwhile, the UK economy faces uncertainty from softer consumer spending and weak housing data — further limiting GBP’s upside potential.
📉 Technical Plan:
Bias: Bearish below 1.3400
Structure: Trendline breakdown confirmed
Cloud Resistance: Adds confluence to downside momentum
Next Levels to Watch:
🟥 1st Support: 1.3349
🟥 2nd Support: 1.3310
📊 If price closes below 1.3349 on the 30-min chart, further selling pressure may extend toward 1.3310 and possibly deeper if fundamentals align.
#GBPUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Ichimoku #TrendlineBreak #FXMarket #BearishSetup #TradingView #KABHI_TA_TRADING
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. Always manage your risk and use proper position sizing before entering any trade.
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GBPJPY's Reversal BaseHi Traders!
When looking at GJ, the chart seemed messy as it was in a range for a long time. After finally breaking out of the 200s, priced reach a Weekly OB area in the 203s.
Over the past weeks or so, GJ created a counter trend dipping back into the high 200s area with what it appears to be a reversal base. If this reversal is true, I would be planning swinging this trade into the next resistance areas around 206-207. That will bring price to a previous Monthly Bearish OB.
Despite of how the chart has looked, the trend remained bullish. Therefore, IMO, GJ seems to want to keep its bullish momentum.
Good luck to everyone!
*DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
2008 Crisis and How the Banking System Has Changed Since:
⚠️These headlines serve as a reminder that despite the Basel I, II, and III global banking regulations, we have not been spared from systemic risks originating within the financial system itself
🏦After the 2008 crisis, banks became heavily overregulated. As a result, many of their most lucrative investment and financing activities shifted into affiliated offshore hedge funds — entities that remain very much part of the same global financial machinery. They are simply no longer called “banks,” and therefore escape almost all regulation.
💵These hedge funds lend, repackage loans, buy and sell exotic financial instruments, re-hypothecate, and re-collateralize. They use questionable collateral to issue risky loans , which are then resold, repackaged, and used again as collateral again.
💰 Exotic derivatives, curreny swaps, REPO operations, outright fraud,risky options market-making, — you name it — all thrive offshore , far from regulatory oversight yet just a click away for clients. And make no mistake: these so-called “non-banks” are deeply interconnected with the global financial system. If they fail, the shockwaves will be felt everywhere.
📈 The next financial tsunami will begin offshore — but it’s the onshore world that will be hit the hardest . So don’t keep large sums of money in the bank, guys. Once your funds are in the bank, they’re no longer truly yours — they belong to the bank. Your account can be frozen, blocked, seized, taxed, or even converted into shares (as happened in Spain in 2011).
⚠️And remember: banks can fail. They will fail. And when they do — the government won’t save you.
Yours truly,
Greg🌹
Adobe: Entering the Fourth Wave — Smart Money Distribution PhaseAdobe’s stock is entering a critical structural phase — the completion of its third global impulse and the start of the fourth corrective wave.
While the long-term uptrend remains intact, the price structure and fundamentals suggest that the most explosive growth period may already be behind us.
🧭 Long-Term Technical Context
Looking back to the early 2000s, Adobe has moved through a textbook Elliott Wave structure.
The first and second waves built the base, while the third wave delivered the explosive rally — from roughly $30 to $600, marking a 20x increase.
Now, the fourth subwave of the third major wave appears to be forming — a phase typically characterized by sideways consolidation and distribution by institutional players.
🔺 Wave 4 Triangle Formation
In many long-term wave structures, the fourth wave forms a triangle (ABCDE pattern) — a contracting structure where price oscillates between defined boundaries.
We can already observe the emerging shape:
Wave A and B are complete
Wave C is in progress
Wave D and E will likely complete the pattern before the final breakout
Once the triangle ends, a final Wave 5 push could occur — potentially extending toward $700, or in an extended scenario, even $2000.
📊 Trading Range and Short-Term Strategy
At this stage, smart money tends to distribute positions gradually.
The price is oscillating within a broad corridor, providing opportunities for range-based trading:
Buy zones: near the triangle lows (Wave A area around $350)
Profit zones: near the triangle highs (Wave B area around $600)
For swing traders, this range offers multiple short-term opportunities before the next major move begins.
💵 Fundamental Context
Despite being in a late-wave structure, Adobe’s fundamentals remain strong.
Share buybacks: The company continues to repurchase its own shares, supporting EPS growth.
EPS trend: Rising steadily year over year.
Revenue growth: Stable, around +10% YoY, with quarterly metrics showing +40% growth since Q1 2024.
Forward P/E: Approximately 28, which, by Peter Lynch’s growth-to-PE logic, still appears reasonably valued.
These metrics suggest that even in a market downturn, Adobe’s downside risk may be more limited compared to weaker tech peers.
🧮 Fundamental Summary
✅ Consistent buybacks supporting EPS
✅ Double-digit annual revenue growth
✅ Attractive valuation relative to growth metrics
✅ Strong defensive profile versus the broader tech sector
There are no visible signs of fundamental weakness — only technical consolidation after years of exponential expansion.
⚠️ Alternative Scenario
If the stock breaks below $270, the current wave structure may need adjustment.
Such a move could imply a larger triangle or a flat correction, but the broader interpretation — that we’re inside a long-term Wave 4 — would remain valid.
📈 Market Outlook
Adobe is transitioning from a high-momentum growth phase into a strategic accumulation and distribution phase.
The stock is unlikely to replicate its earlier explosive rally, but it continues to offer structured trading opportunities inside a stable technical range.
For long-term investors, the risk-reward remains balanced, supported by solid fundamentals.
For traders, the triangle provides a clear framework: buy near lows, take profits near highs, and wait for the fifth wave breakout.
🧩 Summary
Price structure suggests Wave 4 triangle formation
Trading range between $350–$600
Fundamentals remain strong and defensive
Forward P/E at 28 — reasonable given EPS growth
Next major target: Wave 5 breakout toward $700–$2000
Adobe is no longer in its most explosive phase — but it’s far from weak.
This is a mature consolidation period, not a decline story.
For disciplined traders, the triangle may offer some of the cleanest swing setups in the tech sector.
📹 Full video analysis on my YouTube channel — check it out for detailed charts and Elliott Wave breakdowns!
GBP/NZD - Wedge Breakdown (20.10.2025)📊 Setup Overview:
GBP/NZD has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern on the 30-min chart, signaling a potential trend reversal from the recent bullish structure. The pair has also completed a Cloud Cross, indicating early bearish momentum as price begins to break below the wedge support line. OANDA:GBPNZD
📈 Trade Plan: Bias: Bearish
Sell Entry Zone: Below 2.3400 (after candle close confirmation)
1st Target: 2.3288 ✅
2nd Target: 2.3277 🎯
Resistance Zone: 2.3479 – 2.3523
🧩 Technical Highlights:
1.Rising Wedge pattern breakdown – early bearish signal
2.Ichimoku Cloud Cross confirms downside pressure
3.Volume profile thinning below 2.34, showing potential liquidity vacuum
4.Clean bearish structure with clear risk–reward setup
#GBPNZD #ForexAnalysis #WedgePattern #BearishBreakout #Ichimoku #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartSetup #SwingTrade #TradingView #FXMarket #Kabhi_TA_Trading #ChartsDontLie #TradersDontQuit #ForexSignals
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Always confirm setups with your own analysis and manage risk properly before entering any trade.
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GBPUSD Short Confluence and stacking the oddsFPMARKETS:GBPUSD
Fundamental: Bearish (5/5).
Technical: Bearish (7/7) — Diamond Vault (7-Stack) candidate; SL=0.0121, TP distance=0.0314.
Weak UK inflation and growth; dollar steadies. Trend structure bearish across EMAs; momentum favors sellers while rebounds face supply overhead.
EURUSD: H1 Momentum PlayDaily Timeframe:
Price is now below the EMAs, which is a technical downtrend according to my definition. Although this is weak, the past two days have been inside bars. This tells me there's barely any movement or strength to the upside.
The bar for this latest session will likely engulf the previous bars. If the current session's bar closes below and engulfs the prior session's bar, there's a stronger indication of momentum to the downside.
H1 Timeframe:
The confluence with the daily timeframe is that the current session's bar is likely to engulf the inside bar that occurred over the past two days.
Right now, price is crossing below the EMA band, which we I anticipate momentum to the downside will pick up.
Price has not crossed the daily level, but I'm not too concerned there. On the H1 timeframe, price failed to make a higher high, which further makes me lean towards having a bearish sentiment.
US500 Actionable Long Bullish 5 stack fundamental 6 stacks TechCMCMARKETS:SPX500Z2025
Fundamental: Bullish (5 stacks).
Technical: Bullish (6 stacks, Actionable 6+).
20-word summary: Earnings resilience and easing expectations support bids. EMAs aligned, RSI constructive. Dips bought while above 6675; trend continuation favored highs.
Trade plan (LONG): SL 107.768, TP 280.1968 (ATR method).
All stars align however stay sharp, stay nimble as tariffs loom.
Chorus (CNU) major resistance test. Price discovery?
CNU being in the Telcom space has seen a steady and consistent upwards trend since near its inception and being listing on the ASX, with over 600% gain since 2013. In the last 5 years or so we've seen a sideways trend, as the price begins to advance towards test its previous major resistance @ around the $8.80 mark.
On the (W) we can see a gap down after a test of this key area and a mean reversion to the 200MA with a close on the 50MA. Some big seller volume moved in to push the price down, but encouragingly price as respected the current trend line, with signs of a bounce this week.
A potential GAP fill is in play, and a potential for a break above major resistance and then into price discovery for this company. A clear BUY signal would be a break or break and hold after a retest of the resistance of the $8.80 mark. Good luck.
GBPJPY: Trend ContinuationOver on the daily timeframe, price is respecting the EMAs. This is indicating a clear uptrend. In addition, the HTL is a resistance turned support level so overall bullish sentiment unless price crosses back below this level.
The H1 timeframe is also supporting the notion that there's momentum to the upside. Structurally, there's momentum to the upside. This is first indicated by price breaking above the DTL.
In this case, price's acceleration away from the EMA is not clear signal. This was quite choppy since October 12th.
There's potential to the upside, but I'd approach this pair a bit more cautiously.
EURJPY: Trend ContinuationThe daily structure is indicating that price is trading in the direction of the overall uptrend. Price is held supported and it bounced off of the EMA20.
Over on the H1 timeframe, there's quite a few confluences. There's a chance that momentum really picks up in this session.
Price is breaking above DTL, indicating momentum has a chance to pick up going into this Sydney/Tokyo session.
Price is also showing confluence with the higher TF, trading in the direction of the uptrend.
Price is also exiting away from the EMA band. However, there's a lot of overlap with the EMAs so it's a rather weak signal.
AUDCHF: Breaks Below ATLPrice is breaking below the ascending trendline (ATL), which is a signal that the counter-trend move is coming to an end.
The H1 timeframe also demonstrates confluence across price's crossover below the ATL and price's acceleration away from the EMAs.
This is further supported by the fact that price is holding below the horizontal trendline (HTL) on the daily timeframe. We can overall maintain a bearish bias for the time being.
Given that this trade signal is close to the 5 PM rollover, it may result in a closure and then re-entry to avoid a spread spike.
EURJPY: Trend ContinuationI've made several key annotations on this chart. There are several things that I like.
The first is the clean daily structure as price is respecting the EMAs and is making clear breaks above the HTLs.
Over on the H1 timeframe, price crossed above the DTL Although it stalled a bit, it did not successfully make any new lows. Overall, selling pressure does not seem to be present.
My entry signal is based on the bullish bar exiting the EMA band, which is a sign that momentum to the upside will likely pick up.
USDJPY Long #confluence country #trade the stacks. OANDA:USDJPY
Fundamental: Bullish (5)
Technical: Bullish (6/7) — actionable threshold met (≥6)
20-word summary: Dollar-yen supported by rate differentials; EMAs aligned; momentum constructive; watch 152 zone and intervention risk while trend persists this week.
Actionable Trade (Long): ATR 1.181 → SL distance 1.79512; Stop 150.08088; TP 156.54331 (2.6R).
TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in OrbitTesla is trading near multi-month highs… but the fundamentals tell a very different story.
EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164.
This combination — slowing growth and extreme valuation — looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup.
🧮 Fundamental Context
Over the past few years, Tesla’s growth has slowed dramatically:
Revenue rose from 31B → 53B → 81B → 96B → 97B — barely any increase.
EPS climbed from 0.2 → 1.6 → 3.6 → 4.3 — and then fell by half.
Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend.
Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead — which clearly isn’t happening.
The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation.
Right now, Tesla’s numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle — where prices eventually catch up with reality.
📉 Technical Structure
Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure.
We’re currently inside the “B” leg, which could already be complete or near completion.
Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline.
Key levels to watch:
📍 Upper resistance zone: $400 – $550
📍 Primary cluster: around $250
📍 Support zone: $150 – $200
The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 — once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200.
That’s where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg.
⚠️ Market Outlook
While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Tesla’s fundamentals are deteriorating sharply.
Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Musk’s fan base — but markets always return to fundamentals.
And those fundamentals are pointing downward.
📊 Summary
EPS and revenue both trending lower 📉
Forward P/E at 164 — completely disconnected from growth metrics
Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200–$150
Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure
Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution ⚠️
Tesla isn’t a short-term “growth story” anymore — it’s a valuation risk story.
Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.
Silver rally: Are you in?Silver (XAGUSD) just hit a new all-time high, soaring above $53/oz! The surge is driven by a real physical shortage in London (record-low LBMA stocks, spike in lease rates, and COMEX premium), flight to safety amid dovish Fed expectations and gold’s rally, and booming industrial demand from solar energy and electronics. A short squeeze is also underway due to the rising cost of borrowing silver.
5 key drivers behind the XAGUSD bull run:
1. The market is short on metal – demand consistently outpaces supply.
2. Physical squeeze in London – inventories are depleted, spot trades above COMEX, borrowing costs surge.
3 . Industrial super-demand – energy transition fuels silver use in solar, electronics, and EVs.
4. Dovish macro backdrop – Fed rate cuts expected, weaker USD, inflows into safe havens.
5. Capital inflows – silver ETFs and bullion/coin demand picking up momentum.
FreshForex analysts see further upside: the breakout to new highs confirms strong demand for physical silver and sustained investor interest. The rally in gold and robust industrial trends give the silver market breadth and staying power. Q4 2025 offers great potential for active traders, but the strongest move is expected in Q1 2026 , as Fed policy loosens and supply remains tight
Bullish Bias Toward $4,400+🌍 Fundamental Overview
Gold is trading around $4,135–$4,155/oz, staying firm despite mild USD recovery.
Friday’s U.S. data (Michigan Consumer Sentiment, inflation expectations) came slightly higher, but Fed cut expectations remain unchanged — markets still price 99% chance of a rate cut in October.
Geopolitical backdrop remains tense — Middle East concerns, ongoing U.S.–China trade friction, and soft global growth outlook keep gold demand resilient.
ETF inflows show renewed interest; central banks (China, Turkey, India) continue accumulating.
Short-term: Profit-taking possible early this week; medium-term trend remains bullish toward $4,300+.
📊 Technical Overview
Current Price Range: $4,135 – $4,155
Support Zones:
$4,120 (minor intraday support)
$4,080 (major short-term floor)
$4,050 (psychological & structural support)
Resistance Levels:
$4,180
$4,200 (key breakout zone)
$4,300 (next major upside target)
Trend: Bullish consolidation — healthy sideways price action above $4,100 zone.
RSI (H4): Resetting from overbought, suggesting space for renewed upside momentum.
🎯 Trading Strategy
1️⃣ Buy Dip Setup
Entry: $4,090–$4,120
SL: below $4,050
TP: $4,180 → $4,220
2️⃣ Breakout Buy
Entry: above $4,180 (confirmed 1H close)
SL: below $4,150
TP: $4,250 → $4,300
3️⃣ Short Scalp (Counter-trend)
Entry: $4,180–$4,200 (if rejection appears)
SL: above $4,220
TP: $4,120 → $4,080
📌 Bias: Bullish above $4,080 — watch for early-week volatility and liquidity traps.
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 21, 2025 GBPUSDThe pound has retreated from last week’s highs as the market prepares for fresh UK price data and weighs it against recent Bank of England signals. After the August rate cut to 4.00%, policymakers emphasize that any further easing should be cautious given the risk of still-elevated inflation—higher than in most G7 peers. That tempers excessive optimism on sterling and makes the reaction to CPI potentially asymmetric: softer prices would support expectations of later cuts, while stickier readings would revive concern about persistent inflation.
The US backdrop works against cable: the ongoing partial suspension of federal agency operations in the US boosts demand for the reserve currency during bouts of uncertainty, and high US real yields continue to attract global capital. Until markets receive a clean run of US data and clarity on the budget, the dollar’s near-term advantage remains.
Domestic fundamentals also constrain sterling: households remain sensitive to borrowing costs, business investment is uneven, and the services surplus cannot fully offset external risks. As a result, scope for a swift sterling advance is limited, with the balance of risks favoring moderate profit-taking after the climb toward the 1.34 area.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.34050, SL 1.34550, TP 1.33550
USD/JPY(20251021)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
The US government shutdown entered its 20th day on Monday after senators failed to break the impasse for the tenth time last week. The shutdown has also delayed the release of key economic data, leaving investors and Federal Reserve policymakers with a data vacuum ahead of next week's policy meeting. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, delayed by the shutdown, is scheduled for release this Friday. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a 99% probability of a Fed rate cut next week, with another cut expected in December. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold typically performs well in a low-interest rate environment.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
150.73
Support and Resistance Levels:
151.65
151.30
151.08
150.37
150.15
149.81
Trading Strategy:
On the upside, consider buying on a break above 151.08, with the first target at 151.30.
On the downside, consider selling on a break below 150.73, with the first target at 150.15.






















