EURUSD: Bullish Structure Holds - Market Eyes 1.1810 ResistanceHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD is trading within a well-defined bullish structure after breaking out of a descending triangle formation, signaling a clear shift in control from sellers to buyers. The initial breakout was followed by a brief consolidation phase, where price formed a tight range, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. After this pause, the pair continued higher and successfully broke above the triangle resistance line, confirming bullish continuation.
Currently, EURUSD is trading above a rising trend line, which continues to act as dynamic support. The market recently tested the Resistance Zone around 1.1810, where selling pressure appeared, leading to a short-term pullback. This retracement is now developing toward the Support Zone near 1.1760, which aligns with the previous breakout area and the ascending structure. As long as price holds above this support, the broader bullish trend remains intact and the pullback appears corrective.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario remains bullish while EURUSD holds above the 1.1760 Support Zone. I expect buyers to defend this area and push price higher for another attempt toward the 1.1810 Resistance Zone.
Therefore, a clean breakout and acceptance above resistance would confirm bullish continuation and open the way for further upside expansion. However, a decisive breakdown below support would weaken the structure and signal a deeper correction. For now, price action continues to favor buyers as long as the ascending structure holds.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Analysis
BTCUSDT Long: Buyers Defend Channel Support, Upside in FocusHello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of BTCUSDT (4H) based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged consolidation phase defined by a broad range, BTC established multiple internal breakouts, highlighting volatility but no clear directional dominance. This range acted as an accumulation zone, with price repeatedly reacting around key horizontal levels. From the lower boundary of the range, BTC formed a clear pivot low, which marked the start of a bullish recovery and shift in short-term market structure.
Currently, BTC is holding above the Demand Zone around 86,800, which aligns with prior range support and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This area has already shown buyer reaction, reinforcing it as a key level for continuation. Price is now attempting to push higher toward the upper boundary of the channel.
My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the Demand Zone and respects the ascending channel support, the bias remains bullish. I expect buyers to defend this area and attempt a move back toward the 89,000 Supply/Resistance Zone as the first target. A clean breakout and acceptance above this level would confirm bullish continuation and open the path toward higher targets within the channel. A breakdown below demand would invalidate the long scenario. Manage your risk!
XAUUSD: Bullish Trend Remains Intact in Rising ChannelHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD (Gold) setup.
Market Analysis
Gold has confirmed a bullish shift after breaking out of a prior triangle structure, where price was previously compressed between descending resistance and ascending support. This breakout marked a clear change in market structure and initiated a strong impulsive move higher. After the breakout, price transitioned into a consolidation range, indicating temporary balance before continuation.
Currently, XAUUSD established a clear upward channel, respecting both the lower channel support and the ascending trend line. This structure confirms sustained bullish momentum with higher highs and higher lows. Price has continued to trend higher and recently pushed into a key Resistance Zone, where the market is currently showing signs of reaction and testing supply. Below current price, the former resistance has flipped into a well-defined Support Zone, which aligns with the prior breakout level and the lower boundary of the upward channel. This area has already shown buyer response, reinforcing its importance as a demand zone within the bullish structure.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario remains bullish as long as XAUUSD holds above the Support Zone and respects the upward channel structure. I expect buyers to defend this area and attempt another push toward the Resistance Zone. A successful breakout and acceptance above resistance would confirm continuation of the bullish trend and open the path toward higher targets.
However, a strong rejection at resistance followed by a breakdown below the support zone would weaken the bullish structure and suggest a deeper correction or consolidation. For now, price action continues to favor buyers while the ascending structure remains intact.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
BTCUSDT Above Support - $88,900 Resistance in PlayHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTCUSDT (1H) based on the current chart structure. BTCUSDT is trading within a broader ascending channel, confirming an overall bullish structure despite recent volatility. After a sharp drop earlier on the chart, price formed a clear base and started to grow, establishing higher lows along the channel’s support line. This recovery phase shows that buyers remain active and are defending key levels. Price then moved into a consolidation area between a clearly defined Buyer Zone (support) and Seller Zone (resistance), creating a range-like environment inside the channel. Multiple breakouts and false moves around the Seller Zone highlight strong supply pressure in this area, while repeated defenses of the Buyer Zone confirm solid demand. The dashed midline reflects interim structure guiding price action within the channel. Currently, BTC is holding above the Support Level around the Buyer Zone (~87,300), while facing overhead Resistance near the Seller Zone (~88,900). The projected move suggests a potential bounce from support toward resistance, with TP1 aligned near the upper resistance area inside the channel. My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the Buyer Zone and the ascending support line, the bias remains bullish, with a move toward the resistance and TP1 as the primary objective. A strong rejection from resistance could lead to further consolidation. However, a clean breakdown below support would invalidate the bullish setup and signal a deeper pullback. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD Failed Break Above 1.1800 Opens Path to 1.1740Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EURUSD (4H) based on the current chart structure. EURUSD is trading within a broader bullish structure after breaking above a descending resistance formation earlier on the chart, signaling a clear shift in market control from sellers to buyers. Following this breakout, price entered a consolidation phase, forming a well-defined range, which reflected temporary balance before trend continuation. The subsequent upside breakout from this range, supported by a rising trend line, confirmed renewed bullish momentum and continuation of the upward structure. Currently, price is testing a key Resistance Level near 1.1800, where a fake breakout has already occurred, suggesting potential exhaustion of buyers at the highs. This resistance aligns with a descending resistance line, increasing the probability of seller reaction. Below current price, the former resistance has flipped into a Support Level around 1.1740, overlapping with the Buyer Zone and the previous breakout area, making it a critical demand region. My scenario: as long as price is rejected from the 1.1800 resistance, a corrective move toward 1.1740 is likely (TP1). A clean breakdown below support would open the door for a deeper pullback. A confirmed breakout above 1.1800 would invalidate the short bias and signal further upside. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
XAUUSD Fake Breakout at 4,520 - Price Tests Buyer Zone at 4,260Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on XAUUSD (4H) based on the current chart structure. Gold is trading within a broader ascending channel, confirming a dominant bullish structure despite the recent sharp pullback. After a strong impulsive rally, price respected the channel support and continued forming higher highs and higher lows, highlighting sustained buyer control throughout the trend. Currently, XAUUSD is trading below the broken channel support and has entered the Buyer Zone around 4,260, which aligns with a key Support Level and a prior breakout area. This zone represents an important reaction area where buyers may attempt to regain control. The projected path suggests a possible corrective bounce from this level, but overall price action remains vulnerable as long as it stays below the former resistance and channel structure. My scenario: as long as XAUUSD remains below the 4,520 Seller Zone and fails to reclaim the broken channel support, the bias favors further downside or consolidation. A clean hold above the Buyer Zone could trigger a short-term rebound toward the mid-channel area, while a decisive breakdown below 4,260 would open the door for a deeper corrective move. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
BTCUSDT: Range Compression Signals Potential Break Above $90,100Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSDT is trading within a broader consolidation after a strong bearish impulse earlier in the chart. Following the sell-off, price found a key support base around the 87,300 Support Zone, from which buyers stepped in and stabilized the market. Since then, Bitcoin has been moving inside a series of well-defined ranges, indicating compression and balance between buyers and sellers. Structurally, price is capped by a descending triangle resistance line, while at the same time respecting a rising trend line from below. This creates a tightening structure, suggesting a potential directional move ahead.
Currently, BTC is consolidating above the support zone and just below the 90,100 Resistance Zone, which has repeatedly rejected price in recent attempts. The latest pullbacks remain shallow and corrective, showing that sellers are struggling to push price back below support.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario as long as BTCUSDT holds above the 87,300 Support Zone, the structure remains constructive and biased toward a bullish resolution. A sustained hold above support could allow price to build momentum for another push toward the 90,100 Resistance Zone. A clean breakout and acceptance above this resistance would confirm bullish continuation and open the door for further upside.
However, a decisive breakdown below the support zone would invalidate the bullish scenario and shift focus toward lower levels. For now, BTC remains compressed between support and resistance, with buyers defending structure and pressure building for a potential breakout.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
XAUUSD Short: Trend Line Break Signals Downside ContinuationHello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of XAUUSD (3H) based on the current chart structure. Gold previously traded inside a well-defined range, indicating a phase of accumulation before buyers gained control. From this range, price broke out to the upside and followed a rising trend line, confirming a strong bullish impulse and a clear shift in market structure. The trend remained intact as price continued to form higher highs and higher lows.
Currently, gold is trading below the broken trend line and moving toward the Demand Zone near 4,320, which aligns with a previous breakout area and an important horizontal reaction level. Below this area lies the next Demand Zone around 4,270, which represents the next key downside target if selling pressure continues. The move lower appears impulsive, suggesting that the market is entering a corrective or reversal phase rather than a simple pullback.
My scenario: as long as XAUUSD remains below the Supply Zone and stays under the broken trend line, the bias favors sellers. I expect continuation to the downside toward the 4,320 Demand Zone, with a possible extension to 4,270 if bearish momentum remains strong. A strong bullish reaction from demand could lead to short-term consolidation, but without reclaiming the trend line, any upside remains corrective. Manage your risk!
EURUSD Bearish Continuation After Trend BreakQuick Summary
EURUSD remains bearish after the strong sell-off since the start of the week, the Price is expected to continue lower toward 1.17028 after this level Buy positions will only be considered as a mitigation move if a clear retracement target appears
As long as no corrective objective is visible the bearish view remains valid especially after the H4 bullish trendline break
Full Analysis
After the strong downside move that started at the beginning of the week EURUSD continues to show clear bearish strength
The break of the bullish trendline on the H4 timeframe confirms that the previous upside structure has weakened and that sellers currently showed their strength
Based on the current structure price is expected to continue its decline toward the low at 1.17028
This level will be important to monitor as it may act as a reaction zone
From my perspective any buying opportunity would only be considered as a corrective move and not a trend reversal
This means that long positions will only make sense if a clear retracement target or liquidity objective becomes visible.
If price reaches 1.17028 without showing a clear corrective setup or reaction then the bearish bias will remain unchanged
Until proven otherwise the expectation stays aligned with continued downside pressure following the H4 structure break
EURUSD Long: Demand at 1.1720 Sets Up a Push Toward 1.1770Hello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of EURUSD (2H) based on the current chart structure. After forming a solid pivot low, EURUSD transitioned into a bullish trend, supported by a rising trend line that guided price action higher. Following this move, the market entered a consolidation range, signaling temporary balance before the next expansion phase. Price later broke out of the range to the upside, confirming renewed buyer strength. However, upon reaching the upper Supply Zone near 1.1770–1.1780, EURUSD experienced a fake breakout, followed by rejection and increased selling pressure. This rejection highlighted active sellers defending supply. Despite this, buyers managed to push price higher again, leading to another breakout attempt above supply, though momentum remained limited.
Currently, EURUSD is pulling back from the supply area and is trading near the Demand Zone around 1.1720, which aligns with the rising demand line and prior breakout structure. This zone represents a key decision area, where buyers may attempt to defend the bullish structure.
My scenario: as long as EURUSD holds above the 1.1720 Demand Zone, the broader bullish structure remains intact, and the pullback can be considered corrective. A strong reaction from demand could lead to another test of the 1.1770 Supply Zone. However, a decisive breakdown below demand would signal a loss of bullish control and open the door for a deeper corrective move. For now, price is at a critical level, with demand acting as the key area to watch. Manage your risk!
EURUSD Bearish Bias With CautionQuick Summary
The bearish view on EURUSD remains valid and A clear orderflow has formed on the M15 timeframe which supports further downside, However this orderflow may also act as trendline liquidity and attract price higher
Selling should only be considered with a clear reversal signal like a rejection candle with long wick
Full Analysis
The bearish outlook on EURUSD continues to develop as price has formed a clear orderflow on the 15 minute timeframe
This structure is typically a strong indication of bearish pressure and suggests that sellers are still in control
Despite this bearish signal it is important to remain cautious
This type of orderflow can sometimes represent trendline liquidity which may attract price upward before the actual downside move resumes
For this reason entering sell positions without confirmation carries risk
A clear reversal signal is required to validate bearish continuation and confirm that the move is not simply a liquidity grab to the upside
Absolute Insanity in SILVER right Now $4 billion in silver longs get vaporized in 70 minutes.
$83.75 to $75.15. Fastest wipeout ever, With current price sitting at $71
American traders panic-dumped at $75, Chinese buyers were paying $90. Ninety. For the same metal. The premium didn’t shrink during the crash—it widened.
Let that sink in.
This wasn’t a top. This was a heist.
China locks silver exports in 72 hours. January 1st. Export licenses only. They control 70% of global supply. COMEX is down 70% on inventory. London’s vaults are bleeding. And Elon Musk just tweeted “this is not good” about the shortage.
The gold-silver ratio is 60:1. Historical average is 30. That’s $150 silver just to normalize.
Everyone’s calling this 1980. It’s not. The Hunts were speculators playing paper games. This is industrial demand crashing into empty vaults. Solar panels don’t negotiate. AI chips don’t wait.
Retail just handed their silver to sovereign wealth funds at a 15% discount.
The rumor says a major bank collapsed on a silver margin call at 2:47 AM December 28.
I cannot verify that.
What I can verify is more interesting.
JPMorgan filed an 8K on December 27 disclosing 4.875 billion dollars in unrealized silver losses. They flipped from 200 million ounces short to 750 million ounces long physical. The largest position reversal in the history of the silver market happened in the last 30 days and nobody on financial television said a word.
The rumor claims 34 billion in emergency Fed repos. Official data shows routine operations under 7 billion. Either the data is lagged or the rumor is wrong.
Why did JPMorgan suddenly need to own three quarters of a billion ounces of physical silver after spending 15 years on the short side. What did they see coming that made them eat a 5 billion dollar loss just to get positioned the other way.
The collapse story might be fiction.
The position flip is filed with the SEC.
One of those facts will matter more in 90 days than the other.
Stop chasing the rumor. Start asking why the smartest bank in commodities just switched sides at the worst possible price and seems fine with it.
EURUSD Short: Failed Break 1.1800 - Demand at 1.1740 as TargetHello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of EURUSD (4H) based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged consolidation phase marked by a broad range, EURUSD formed a clear pivot low and transitioned into a bullish recovery. From that pivot point, price established a well-defined ascending channel, confirming a shift in market structure and sustained buyer control through higher highs and higher lows.
Currently, price is trading below a key Supply Zone near 1.1800, where a fake breakout occurred, indicating strong selling pressure at the highs. This rejection from supply suggests that buyers struggled to gain acceptance above resistance. Following the rejection, price broke below short-term structure and is now pulling back toward the 1.1740 Demand Zone, which aligns with prior breakout structure and the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
My scenario:as long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1800 Supply Zone, the risk of a bearish reaction stays elevated. A clear rejection from this resistance area, especially with bearish confirmation, would favor short positions, targeting a move back toward the 1.1740 Demand Zone as the first objective. Manage your risk!
Happy New Year 2026 TRADERSAs we close the chapter on 2025, it’s worth acknowledging what this year truly tested — not just strategies, but discipline, patience, and emotional control. The market offered moments of clarity and long stretches of uncertainty, sharp trends followed by brutal consolidations, and powerful macro moves that rewarded preparation while punishing impulse. Every win came from respecting structure, and every loss carried a lesson for those willing to learn from it.
To all traders who stayed committed to the process managing risk, protecting capital, and waiting for high-probability setups this year has strengthened you more than any single trade ever could. Progress in trading is built quietly, over time, through consistency and self-control.
As we step into 2026, may your decisions be calm, your risk disciplined, and your confidence grounded in experience rather than emotion. May you trade with clarity, adapt quickly, and continue evolving with the market. Wishing every trader health, resilience, and a year ahead filled with focus, growth, and sustainable profitability.
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2026
ETH — Relief Rally or Another Distribution Trap?On the 1H timeframe, Ethereum is staging a sharp rebound back into a well-defined resistance zone around 2,980–3,000, following a strong sell-off from above 3,030. While the bullish impulse candle appears aggressive at first glance, structurally this move is best interpreted as a counter-trend reaction rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Price is still trading below the prior breakdown area, where selling pressure previously accelerated.
From a market structure perspective, ETH shows clear signs of distribution near the highs. The impulsive rejection from the 3,030 area was followed by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers regained control after liquidity was taken above resistance. The current rebound lacks follow-through and occurs inside a known supply zone, increasing the probability of another rejection rather than sustained upside continuation.
The support zone around 2,890–2,910 remains the key downside reference. This area has previously absorbed selling pressure, but it has now been tested multiple times. Each subsequent reaction has become less impulsive, suggesting weakening demand rather than strong accumulation. If price fails to hold above 2,950 and rolls over from resistance, a rotation back toward this support zone becomes the higher-probability scenario.
From a broader macro and risk environment, crypto assets remain sensitive to U.S. dollar stability, Treasury yields, and overall risk sentiment. Without a clear risk-on catalyst or strong volume expansion, upside moves into resistance are vulnerable to selling, particularly during low-liquidity conditions where false breakouts are common.
In summary, ETH is currently trapped between short-term resistance and fragile support. As long as price remains capped below 3,000, the structure favors range trading to bearish continuation, not trend expansion. A clean rejection from resistance would reinforce downside risk toward 2,900, while only a sustained acceptance above 3,030 would meaningfully shift the technical bias.
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 31, 2025 GBPUSDGBP/USD is trading near 1.34600–1.34700 ahead of the New Year after a quiet session. Sterling remains relatively resilient, but the market is heading into January with increased caution: low liquidity amplifies the impact of headlines and can cause sharper moves even in the absence of major data releases.
In the UK, investors continue to reassess the rate outlook after the Bank of England’s December cut to 3.75% (with a close voting split) and guidance suggesting further easing may be gradual as inflation slows. Cooling signals from the labour market also weigh on the pound, as they can reduce sterling’s relative advantage.
In the US, the dollar finds support because the Fed minutes reflected significant disagreement after the cut to 3.50–3.75% and hinted at a smaller number of moves in 2026. If expectations for US easing are revised toward a more limited scale, GBP/USD may shift into a corrective phase from current levels.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.34600, SL 1.34900, TP 1.33700
ETH Is at a Make-or-Break ZoneEthereum is currently trading inside a clearly defined range, capped by major resistance around 3,160 and supported by a key demand zone near 2,980, with a deeper structural support around 2,780. The recent impulsive rally was decisively rejected at resistance, confirming that sellers are still defending the upper boundary of this range.
From a technical perspective, price action shows classic range behavior. After the rejection, ETH rotated back toward the mid-range and is now hovering just above support (~2,980). As long as this level holds on a closing basis, the market structure remains neutral-to-bullish within the range. A successful defense here would likely lead to a rebound toward 3,060 and a retest of the 3,160 resistance zone.
However, a clean breakdown below 2,980, especially with strong volume and a 1H/4H close, would invalidate the range floor and open downside continuation toward 2,900, followed by the major liquidity pocket around 2,780.
On the macro side, year-end conditions are playing a critical role. Holiday liquidity is thin, which statistically increases the probability of false breakouts and liquidity sweeps rather than clean trend continuations. At the same time, recent Federal Reserve adjustments to liquidity conditions and easing expectations around monetary policy have kept risk assets supported, but without enough conviction to force a decisive breakout. Crypto markets are therefore reacting more to positioning and short-term flows than to long-term macro repricing.
For Ethereum specifically, the broader narrative around institutional adoption, staking yield, and ETF-related expectations continues to provide medium-term support. That said, these factors are not yet strong enough to override the current technical range in the short term.
Bottom line: ETH remains a range-bound market. As long as 2,980 holds, upside rotations toward 3,060–3,160 remain the higher-probability scenario. A confirmed break below support would shift control back to sellers and expose 2,900 → 2,780. Until a decisive breakout occurs, traders should expect sideways price action with sharp intraday swings, typical of the Christmas trading period.
GBPUSD SELL | Day Trading AnalysisYou can expect a reaction in the direction of selling from the specified resistance zone
GBPUSD moving higher as it tests the strong resistance level..
We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity GBPUSD
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
XAU/USD 30-MINUTES LONG POSITION CHART TRADE PLANXAU/USD (Gold) – 30-Min Buy Setup Analysis (based on your chart)
Market Context
Strong impulsive sell-off into a higher-timeframe demand zone (grey box).
Price has reacted immediately from demand → indicates institutional buying interest.
Overall structure shows a bullish pullback after a liquidity sweep below support.
Technical Confluence for BUY
Demand Zone Hold (4H/1H origin)
Liquidity Grab (sell-side taken, long wicks)
Potential CHoCH on lower timeframe
Mean-reversion after an extended bearish leg
Trade Plan (BUY)
Entry Zone:
4320 – 4327 (inside demand, as marked)
Stop Loss:
4283 – 4286
Below demand + liquidity sweep low (safe invalidation)
Take Profits:
🎯 TP1: 4389 – 4395 (intraday imbalance / reaction high)
🎯 Final TP: 4440 – 4450 (previous supply / resistance zone)
Bitcoin Is Compressing — Range Control Before the Next ExpansionOn the 1H timeframe, Bitcoin remains locked in a well-defined range structure, capped by a strong resistance zone around $89,800–$90,500 and supported by demand between $86,800–$87,200. Price has repeatedly failed to achieve acceptance above resistance, while sellers also lack follow-through below support. This behavior confirms that the market is not trending, but rotating liquidity within a controlled environment.
From a market structure perspective, the repeated swing highs into resistance followed by sharp pullbacks suggest distribution rather than breakout pressure. Each push toward the upper boundary has been met with aggressive selling, indicating that larger participants are using higher prices to offload positions instead of initiating continuation. Until resistance is decisively reclaimed, upside moves should be treated as range highs, not trend signals.
The area labeled as the accumulation zone in the mid-range reflects prolonged consolidation with overlapping candles and reduced volatility. This is typical of a market waiting for external confirmation. Price acceptance here shows balance between buyers and sellers, but importantly, balance is not direction. A breakout from such zones requires volume expansion and structural follow-through, neither of which is currently present.
On the downside, the support zone around $86,500–$87,000 continues to act as a reliable demand pocket. Each test has produced a reaction, confirming short-term buyer interest. However, below this lies a stronger macro support near $85,200, which represents the level where bullish structure would be meaningfully threatened if broken. A clean loss of this zone would shift the broader bias toward downside continuation.
In summary, Bitcoin is in a classic range-bound environment. The market is compressing energy between clearly defined levels, and directional conviction remains absent. Until price breaks and holds above $90,500 or loses $86,500 with momentum, the optimal approach remains range-based execution and patience. The next impulsive move will come from resolution — not prediction.
Holding Support — The Range Is Still in PlayEURUSD remains in a range-to-reaccumulation structure, with price holding above a well-defined support zone around 1.1745–1.1750. Buyers continue to defend dips, while upside attempts are capped below the 1.1805–1.1815 resistance zone, keeping the market in consolidation rather than expansion.
The recent higher low suggests demand is still active. As long as price holds above support, upside continuation toward the upper range remains the favored path.
Resistance: 1.1805 – 1.1815
Support: 1.1745 – 1.1750
Range focus: 1.1750 – 1.1815
➡️ Primary: support holds → higher lows → rotation toward 1.1805–1.1815.
⚠️ Risk: clean break below 1.1745 → deeper pullback before buyers reassess.
Gold Just Broke Its Rising ChannelGold (XAUUSD) – H1 Technical & Macro Analysis
Gold has shifted from a bullish continuation structure into a clear distribution and breakdown phase . After trending higher inside a rising channel, price failed to sustain momentum near the upper boundary around 4,520–4,540 , forming lower highs and showing repeated rejection. This behavior signals that buying pressure has been absorbed and smart money has begun distributing positions rather than pushing price higher.
From a technical structure standpoint, the critical signal was the clean break below the rising channel support near 4,480–4,460. This breakdown invalidates the bullish channel and confirms a short-term trend reversal. The subsequent pullback attempts were weak and corrective, indicating that sellers are now in control. As long as price remains below 4,500, the market structure favors downside continuation rather than a bullish recovery.
Key levels to monitor:
Broken support /new resistance: 4,480–4,500
Intermediate support: ~4,420
Major downside target: 4,340–4,300 (previous demand & liquidity zone)
On the macro side, gold is currently pressured by stabilizing US yields and a resilient US dollar , which reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold. Additionally, the absence of immediate geopolitical escalation or aggressive dovish signals from the Federal Reserve has cooled safe-haven demand. With markets pricing a more gradual rate-cut path, gold is losing short-term momentum despite its longer-term bullish narrative.
Conclusion:
Gold has transitioned from an uptrend into a bearish corrective phase on the H1 timeframe. Any bounce toward 4,480–4,500 is technically a sell-the-rally opportunity, not a trend reversal, unless price reclaims and holds above the broken channel. Until then, the probability favors continued downside toward 4,420 and potentially 4,300 , where stronger demand may re-emerge.






















