Get started

Analysis

EUR/USD - Fundamental Move (18.09.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.1744 2nd Support – 1.1704 Fundamental Updates : Fed Chair Powell described this rate cut as a way to manage risks due to a weaker job market, and said there is no need to rush further rate cuts. The Fed's future plans suggest more rate cuts this year, but only one more in 2026. 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
73
USD/CHF - Trade Setup 🕰 1H Structure Price has shifted bullish after a BOS and liquidity sweep. We’ve tapped into discount levels near the 71% retracement and held demand. 📊 Technical Breakdown MSS → BOS confirmed bullish intent. Demand zone sits at 0.7880 – 0.7900. Price cleared SSL liquidity and is now seeking upside inefficiency. Next magnet = 0.8000 – 0.8030 swing range. 🎯 Entry / Exit Zones Entry: Wait for a pullback into the 0.7880 – 0.7900 demand zone. Target 1: 0.7950 (intra-range). Target 2: 0.8000 – 0.8030 (swing range high). Invalidation : Break below 0.7860. ⚖️ Outlook Short-term pullback into demand → continuation bullish towards 0.8000+. Bias : 📈 Bullish continuation after retrace.
Long
by Jibzy_Trades
$SOLANA 250+ or bearish trend to 225/200With the recent solana pump, major profits have been taking place. However, SOL stopped out at 249. Just under the Psychological level of 250. On this chart we can see the following: - Supply & Demand - Anchored Volume - Pattern: BF / BC /SR - Two 4 hour FVG's below price, with HTF GP on the second FVG. - One swing high & swing low - OBV tool in place forming a bearish channel - Psychological levels of 250, 225, 200 With these in place, we can see solana is looking pretty bearish now. What comes up, must come down. Solana is making a retest on the demand zone, which is also the resistance and golden pocket. If price wicks and successfully rejects. We will definitely see 225. A long with the Volume Anchor acting as a magnet for price to come back down as there has not yet been a retest. But if it closes above the resistance, there is a greater chance of it breaking above the demand zone. We will begin looking for shorting opportunities once solana fails to break above. We will begin looking for long opportunities if solana succeeds in it's break above. Right now, keep your eyes peeled. We have movement incoming.
by King_BennyBag
55
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 19, 2025 EURUSDThe US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 231,000 for the week ending September 13. The latest data was lower than the initial estimate of 240,000 and lower than the previous week's figure of 264,000 (revised from 263,000). Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 to 1.920 million for the week ending September 6. The US dollar remains strong after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced an expected rate cut on Wednesday but did not indicate that it would rush to lower borrowing costs in the coming months. The decline in the EUR/USD pair may be limited as the euro (EUR) could be supported by growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will end its cycle of rate cuts after the release of the latest inflation data. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the central bank should take a “very cautious” approach given the high uncertainty. Guindos added that the current rate is adequate given inflation trends and monetary policy transmission. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1765, TP 1.1685
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XAUUSD 30M – Intraday Plan Around the RangePrice is consolidating between $3,660.93 (resistance / buy trigger) and $3,626.93 (support / sell trigger). Current price is near $3,648, sitting mid-range. Breakout confirmation is key. 🔼 Bullish Plan (needs confirmation) Trigger: 30-min body close above $3,660.93. Targets: $3,662.79 → $3,665.17 → $3,669.30. Management: Take partials at the first target, move SL to breakeven once $3,661 is cleared, trail remainder if momentum continues. 🔽 Bearish Plan (clean if floor breaks) Trigger: 30-min body close below $3,626.93. Targets: $3,621.49 → $3,619.00 → $3,616.88. Management: Scale partials at the first target, protect remaining position at breakeven. Trail if selling momentum builds. 🔄 Range Scalp (higher risk — small size) Shorts: rejection near $3,659–$3,660, target $3,648–$3,650, SL above rejection high. Longs: bounce near $3,627–$3,628, target mid-range (~$3,640–$3,645), SL under wick low. ✅ Break Confirmation Strong 30-min body close beyond the trigger. Expansion candles with follow-through. ❌ Invalidation Breakout closes back inside the box on the next bar. Multiple wicks through levels without momentum. 📌 Bottom Line Above $3,660.93 → bullish bias toward $3,662.79 → $3,665.17 → $3,669.30. Below $3,626.93 → bearish bias toward $3,621.49 → $3,619.00 → $3,616.88. Inside range = scalp only, keep risk tight.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by fxt8
Take-profit near 3,610 first, and extended target around 3,590.1. Current Trend Price is moving inside a down channel, marked by the two blue trendlines. Each time price touches the upper edge of the channel, it gets rejected and turns lower, showing sellers are in control. Key resistance zone: around 3,645 – 3,655 (red box), which has been tested multiple times but failed to hold. 2. Key Levels Short-term resistance: 3,650 – 3,655. Unless a breakout occurs, the bearish momentum remains dominant. Support target: 3,590 – 3,600 (blue box below). This is a previous low and a strong demand zone. 3. Price Scenarios Main scenario (preferred): Price continues moving inside the down channel → breaks below 3,640 → gradually drops toward 3,600 – 3,590. Alternative scenario: If there’s a strong breakout above 3,655 with a solid H1 close, the short-term trend may reverse upward, targeting 3,670 – 3,680. 4. Trading View With the current trend: bias remains Sell within the down channel, with stop-loss above 3,660. Take-profit near 3,610 first, and extended target around 3,590.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AstronautPioneer
EUR/USD 4H Trade Setup🔎 Bias Mid-term bullish continuation after corrective pullback into demand. 📊 Technical Breakdown Weekly/Daily: Structure remains bullish after breaking out of consolidation. 4H : Clear impulsive leg (i-ii-iii) with current correction into the 71% fib retracement. Demand zone: 1.1730 – 1.1770 aligns with BOS retest + liquidity sweep. Confluence : Trendline support + untested 4H demand. 🎯 Entry / Exit Entry zone : 1.1740 – 1.1770 demand Targets: TP1: 1.1860 TP2: 1.1960 TP3 (extended): 1.2050+ (wave (v) projection) Invalidation : Below 1.1685 ⚖️ Risk Management Risk only 1–2% per trade. Stop loss tucked under 1.1685 demand break. 📌 Outlook Expecting a corrective dip into demand before continuation higher. If demand holds → strong bullish wave (v) towards 1.20+. Bias: Pullback → Mid-term bullish 🚀
Long
by Jibzy_Trades
ES (SPX) Analyses - Key Levels - Setups - Fri, Sep 19Bias: After the recent FOMC meeting, where they cut rates by 25 basis points on September 18, the E-mini S&P 500 futures are looking a bit bullish. There’s decent support holding up, but expect some bumpy trading around those all-time highs. We might see the market bouncing between the usual value areas, with traders likely to fade the extremes unless there’s a strong breakout. Momentum could slow down as we get close to overbought levels, which might lead to some profit-taking on any rallies. On the flip side, expect strong buying when prices dip. For now, the trading range looks to be between 6660 and 6710, with swings of about 20 to 30 points likely in quieter trading conditions. Friday has no major U.S. data on the weekly calendar wrap; Thursday’s LEI fell −0.5% m/m in Aug (already out), so macro tape-bombs are limited. Quadruple-witching: 09/19/2025 is the quarterly expiration (third Friday of Sep). Also note ESU25 last trade = Sep 19, even though most trading has rolled to ESZ25. Expect flowy opens/closes and possible “pin” behavior.  Options positioning (ES): • Report totals: 5.83M total OI; put/call = 3.51.  • Friday weeklies: 2.676M OI; P/C = 5.09 (put-heavy into expiry).  • Sep contract (ESU5, 2 DTE): ~1.07M total OI; P/C = 3.01; ~185k volume in the latest report.  • Vol: 30-day ATM IV ≈ 12.33% (down slightly d/d).  • 0DTE share in SPX options has been >60% of volume recently — expect same-day gamma flows to matter on a quad-witch Friday.  Bottom line: This is a put-heavy, expiry-dense tape with subdued vol. Expect pinning/reversion around big strikes and flowy opens/closes rather than a trend day—unless price cleanly accepts outside the range. Next known catalysts (not tomorrow but near-term): Flash PMIs Mon 9/22; U. Michigan final sentiment Fri 9/26. Setup 1 — Tier-2 (A+ Bounce) LONG @ 6680–6695 Trigger: sweep 6680–6690 → 15m close back above 6693.5 (AS.L) → 5m re-close + HL → 1m pullback hold. Entry: 6694–6697. SL: below the 15m sweep low −0.5 pt (hard). TP1: 6705–6707 (AS.H). TP2: 6718–6725 (W3). Management: at TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE; aim TP2; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1/SL hits; max 2 attempts/level. Setup 2 — Tier-1 (A++ Rejection-Fade) SHORT @ 6718–6725 Trigger: quick sweep above 6718–25 → 15m body back inside 6710 → 5m LH + re-close → 1m failure retest. Entry: 6714–6718 on the re-close. SL: above sweep high +0.5 pt. TP1: 6705–6707; TP2: 6693–6695; stretch 6685–6680 only if momentum continues. Management: same as above. SPY options overlay (execution notes) Given quarterly expiration and heavy 0DTE participation, prefer same-day SPY (AM window) with Δ≈0.60–0.70 on entries; consider 1-DTE for PM window to temper decay. (0DTE share data from Cboe.)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
XAUUSD GOLD RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT READ CAPTIONGold is currently holding above the support levels 3640 – 3655. As long as these zones are respected, the market may attempt a bullish move toward the resistance 3695. A successful breakout above this resistance can open the way toward the supply zone 3710. On the other hand, if support breaks, market may show further downside pressure Support zone: 3655_3640 Resistance zone: 3695 Supply 3710 will gold respect support or break lower? For more chart updates, you can follow my TradingView profile.
TVC:GOLDLong
by haleh120
Undeads Games may Be Preparing for its Next Major Move UpHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Undeads Games. The market for Undeads Games has transitioned from a strong impulsive uptrend into a prolonged corrective phase, setting the stage for its next potential major move. After a rally within an upward channel peaked near the 2.0200 Resistance Level, the price entered a lengthy consolidation, forming a large pennant pattern. This correction guided the price of UDSUSDT back down to the key 1.6100 buyer zone, where it found significant support. Currently, the asset is at a critical inflection point, with the price coiling tightly at the apex of this pennant, signaling that a high-volatility breakout is imminent. The primary working hypothesis is a long scenario, which anticipates a bullish resolution to this consolidation. The expectation is that the price will break out from the top of the pennant and rally towards the major Resistance zone at 2.0200, which serves as TP 1. Following the achievement of this first target, a healthy correction or retest of the broken resistance is anticipated. A successful hold of this level as new support would then provide the foundation for the next impulsive wave higher, with a secondary objective set at TP 2 at the 2.3000 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
2
EURUSD Long: Correction Before Impulse UpHello, traders! A large upward wedge pattern has defined the price auction for EURUSD. This bullish structure has been formed by a series of higher highs and higher lows, with key pivot points establishing the diverging supply and demand lines. The auction has been rotating between the demand zone 2 and the supply zone near the 1.1780 level. Currently, following a rejection from the wedge's upper supply line, the price has entered a corrective phase. This pullback is guiding the auction towards a significant confluence of support. The price is now approaching the ascending demand line, a key area where buyers have previously shown initiative and are expected to defend the trend. The primary scenario anticipates a successful defense of this ascending demand line. A confirmed bounce from this dynamic support would validate the integrity of the upward wedge and signal that the bullish initiative is ready to resume. This is expected to trigger a full rotation back to the top of the pattern, breaking through the 1.1780 demand level. The take-profit is therefore set at 1.1810, targeting the upper supply line of the wedge. Manage your risk!
Long
by heniitrading
2
Lululemon: Beaten-Down Athleisure GiantLululemon: Beaten-Down Athleisure Giant Amid #Earnings and #Stocks Trends Crash? $250 Recovery Target in Sight? Lululemon (LULU) shares tanked 19% today to around $160 after Q2 2025 earnings missed estimates, with revenue at $2.4B (up 7% YoY but below $2.44B expected) and EPS dipping to $2.68 from $2.89 last year, prompting a slashed full-year outlook amid China slowdowns. This extends a brutal 57% YTD plunge from $420 highs, but with a P/E now at 12x versus historical 30x averages, analysts are calling it a "screaming buy" at 40% below fair value. Just as #Earnings racks up 8K mentions on X with post-report volatility exploding, and #Stocks trends highlight beaten-down consumer plays (e.g., LULU's RSI at 33 signaling oversold), the stock's premium brand and 15% international growth position it for a viral rebound in the $200B+ athleisure market. But with guidance cuts, is LULU the undervalued turnaround story ready to warrior-pose back to $250, or will competition erode margins further? Let's unpack the fundamentals, SWOT, charts, and setups for September 17, 2025. Fundamental Analysis Lululemon's resilience shines in steady sales despite macro headwinds, with Q2 gross margins holding at 58% and international revenue surging 15%—but US softness and China inventory issues led to the outlook trim to $11.15–$11.3B for FY2025 (up 6–7% YoY from $10.7B). Analysts forecast 2025 EPS of $14.50 (up 10% YoY), with buy ratings from 25 of 30 firms hiking targets to $250 amid #Earnings fallout creating a value entry. Trading at 40% below DCF fair value, LULU's undervaluation ties into #Stocks hype on oversold retail, but elevated inventory risks could pressure if consumer spending cools. - **Positive:** - Brand moat with 20%+ market share in premium yoga; $1.2B FCF TTM funds $6B buybacks, amplified by #Earnings dips as buy signals. - International expansion (35% of sales) projects 12% CAGR, undervaluing the stock at 12x P/E vs. peers' 25x amid #Stocks rotation. - Broader trends in wellness and athleisure (e.g., viral TikTok fitness) position LULU for 15% revenue growth rebound. - **Negative:** - Guidance cut reflects China woes (sales down 2%), clashing with #Earnings optimism if tariffs hit. - Inventory pile-up at $1.5B risks markdowns, pressuring margins in a high-inflation environment. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Iconic brand loyalty and direct-to-consumer model (40% of sales) with 58% margins, amplified by #Earnings oversold bounce potential. **Weaknesses:** US market saturation and China dependency (20% revenue); recent earnings miss exposes execution risks in #Stocks volatility. **Opportunities:** Global store openings (50+ planned) tap #business trends; undervalued at 12x P/E amid 10% EPS growth and athleisure boom on social media. **Threats:** Rivals like Nike/Lululemon eroding share; economic slowdown crimping discretionary spend during viral #Earnings discussions. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, LULU shows a sharp V-bottom after the 19% gap-down, bouncing from $155 support in a multi-month downtrend, with volume spiking on post-earnings panic and mirroring #Earnings volatility. The monthly RSI at 33 screams oversold, echoing 2009/2014 bounces. Current price: $160, with VWAP at $165 as intraday pivot. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 25, deeply oversold—classic bounce setup amid #Stocks surges. 📈 - **MACD:** Histogram flipping positive post-selloff, crossover imminent for reversal. ⚠️ - **Moving Averages:** Price below 21-day EMA ($180) but above 200-day SMA ($220)—death cross avoided. Support/Resistance: Key support at $155 (today's low), resistance at $170 (50-day SMA) and $200 (Fib retrace). Patterns/Momentum: Oversold hammer candle targets $190; fueled by #Earnings momentum. 🟢 Bullish signals: Volume exhaustion low. 🔴 Bearish risks: Break below $155 eyes $140 on further guidance fears. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Reclaim $170 on retail rotation or soft CPI data targets $200 short-term, then $250 by year-end; buy pullbacks to $155, especially if #Earnings narrative shifts to value. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below $155 eyes $140 (52-week low); watch for inventory news amid #Stocks fade triggering 10% more downside. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound $155–$170 if data mixed and #Earnings cools, suiting covered calls pre-holidays. Risk Tips: Use stops at $152. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify to avoid correlation traps with #Earnings-linked retail like NKE. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if LULU holds $155, supercharged by today's #Earnings and #Stocks trends, affirming its undervalued status with 50%+ upside on international rebound. But watch Q3 comps and China updates for confirmation—this fits September's value rotation amid beaten-down consumer hype. What’s your take? Warrior pose into LULU dip or sitting out the volatility? Share in the comments!
NASDAQ:LULULong
by DCAChampion
BTC: Fed Fuel Ignites the Next Leg UpBTC's coiling like a spring between $116.5k support and $118.5k resistance, with smart money reloading post-rate cut while retail chases shadows. The Fed's 25bps trim is the cheat code here—liquidity's flowing, on-chain whales are backing the truck, and technicals scream bounce to $119k as DXY dips. Entry zone: $117k-$117.5k for that low-risk long. TP1 at $118.5k (quick scalp), TP2 $119.5k if momentum sticks. SL tight at $116.5k to avoid the flush. This setup's classic: Crowd's neutral-greedy, but we're thinking like institutions—patience shakes out the weak hands before the real move. Don't FOMO the chop; scoop the dip.
Long
by formula_capital
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 18, 2025 USDJPYAfter the Fed’s rate cut, the U.S.–Japan yield differential narrowed slightly, supporting the yen and capping USD/JPY. The focus now is on tomorrow’s Bank of Japan meeting: the base case is unchanged policy settings, with heightened attention to assessments of inflation and wages as well as comments on the balance of risks over the coming months. Even without immediate BoJ steps, expectations of further normalization of monetary policy in Japan later this year periodically boost demand for the yen. At the same time, the dollar enjoys short-term support after the Fed decision, though it is constrained by messaging about a gradual approach going forward, which limits the potential for a sustained rise in the pair. Overall, the balance of factors tilts toward a tactical decline in USD/JPY, while warranting caution given the pair’s sensitivity to BoJ communication and U.S. yield dynamics. Selling with a moderate stop-loss and a conservative target is preferred. Trade recommendation: SELL 146.900, SL 147.400, TP 146.000
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
NZD/USD - Forecast Update 🕰 Weekly Structure Price has been holding above 0.58 strong support. Currently ranging between 0.58 – 0.62. A break above 0.60 – 0.605 could open the door for a run into 0.62 supply. Failure here and a drop below 0.58 would confirm deeper downside. 📉 Daily View Price is testing 0.5950 key zone. Strong liquidity sits above 0.60, while demand has been respected around 0.585 – 0.59. Daily structure favors a push higher toward 0.61 – 0.62, unless sellers reclaim 0.585. ⏱ 8H Structure Bounce seen from major buyer level at 0.59. Short-term target is 0.60 – 0.605 resistance. If that zone breaks, upside continuation into 0.617 – 0.62 is next. 📌 Outlook Short-term bullish bounce → Watching 0.60 – 0.605 for reaction. Break higher → rally toward 0.62. Rejection here → possible retrace back into 0.585 – 0.59 support. Bias : Short-term bullish 🔼 → Mid-term depends on 0.60/0.605 breakout.
by Jibzy_Trades
HINO📊 HINO (PSX) Analysis (One can also buy on current market price) 🔎 Fundamentals 🚌 Buses & Trucks: Orders surged 80% 🚀 💰 Undervalued Price → Attractive entry point for long-term investors 📈 Earnings Growth: EPS improved to 4.67 ✅ 🤝 MFTBC (Mitsubishi Fuso Truck & Bus Corp.) agreement with HINO → backed by a 100% publicly listed global player 🌍 📉 Technicals 📍 3 Accumulation Areas → Strong buying interest spotted 📊 Trendline Break (Daily) → Closed at 562 → ✅ Buy Signal 🔄 Support Bounce: Price moves in the 562–582 range → Ideal Buy Zone ⚡ If Support Breaks: Next attractive Buy Zone → 360–390 Note: (One can also buy on current market price)
PSX:HINOLong
by SmartMoney-AR
USD/CHF - Forecast (Update)🕰 Weekly Structure Price is sitting just above 0.78 – 0.79 support zone. The broader weekly trend is still bearish, but we’re showing signs of forming a wedge base. If 0.78 holds, a bounce toward 0.84 resistance is likely. 📉 Daily View Clear rejection from 0.79 demand zone. Market structure suggests a potential short-term bullish correction. First upside target is 0.805 – 0.81, with room toward 0.84 supply if momentum continues. ⏱ 4H / 8H Structure Price recently swept liquidity below 0.79 and bounced. Expecting a push higher into 0.80 – 0.805 resistance. Break above 0.805 could fuel continuation toward 0.82+. 📌 Outlook Short-term bullish bounce → watching for a rally into 0.80 – 0.81. Mid-term path depends on reaction at 0.84 supply. Bias : Short-term bullish 🔼 → Mid-term depends on 0.84 test.
Long
by Jibzy_Trades
USD/CAD - Forecast🚨 USD/CAD – Key Levels in Play 🚨 🕰 Weekly View: Price is trapped inside a 1.36 – 1.40 swing range. Break above 1.40 → clean run into 1.44 – 1.46 supply. Fail here → liquidity below 1.34 – 1.35 becomes the target. 📉 Daily Structure: We’re moving inside a parallel channel, sitting mid-range at 1.38 – 1.39. Liquidity is building under 1.37 — sellers might want to grab that first. ⏱ 8H Play: Rejection spotted at 1.38 – 1.385 supply. ➡️ Short-term pullback toward 1.37 demand looks likely. ➡️ If buyers defend that, we could see another push into 1.39 – 1.40. 📌 Outlook: Short-term pullback 🔽 → Mid-term bullish if 1.37 holds. Break under 1.37? Bears take control toward 1.35. Follow for more
by Jibzy_Trades
EURJPY: Trend ContinuationNot many confluences here, but there's one key observation on the daily timeframe and another key observation on the H1 timeframe. Daily Timeframe: Price crossed the HTL two days ago, and failed to close below it yesterday The current session's bullish bar signals that momentum is likely to continues upward H1 Timeframe: The DTL isn't really at play anymore, not fully marking a clean momentum break However, price crossing above the EMA20 and exiting the EMA20-60 band signals intraday momentum is accelerating as well
Long
by FinancialGamblR
1
Bitcoin: Is it time?Being a crypto enthusiast, these are exciting times! We have seen Bitcoin hit all time highs just a couple of weeks back, topping out $124,580 before retracing down to $107,000. Many questioned: HAS THE BITCOIN BUBBLE BURST? I would like to disagree with that. With the rate cuts being 'almost' certain today, we expect risk assets (such as BTC) to be more attractive investments for both firms and investors globally. After reaching the all-time highs and with the news event scheduled for mid-September, the sell off into the discount zone (as shown in the chart) was expected from my end and we have rebalanced the impulsive price action that led to the all-time high. What I appreciated from the price driving down into the discount zone was the reaction the market gave us, it has reacted positively and that specific price region has invited investors and firms like Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) to reinforce their position and increase their Bitcoin holdings. Will the market explode as soon as the rate cuts news is released? I don't think so. The market will experience liquidity stress, especially with how the economy is holding up at the moment and the 'almost certain' news outcome to both retail and institutional. We may see spikes towards both directions, so my advice? Wait for the market to cool down once the news is released and position yourself accordingly. The news will give us a direction until the end of the year, giving you a clear bias. Trade safely and good luck to all!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Riscuit
Eli Lilly: Weight-Loss Giant Amid AI Drug Discovery Eli Lilly: Undervalued Weight-Loss Giant Amid AI Drug Discovery and Virginia Jobs Boom Trends? $1050 Target in Sight? Eli Lilly (LLY) shares are trading at $755.39 today, up 0.45% amid analyst upgrades and fresh headlines on its $2.3 billion Virginia manufacturing plant expansion, creating 650 high-paying jobs in Goochland County. This comes as Q2 2025 earnings showcased 36% revenue growth to $11.3B, driven by blockbuster obesity drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound, with analysts forecasting 2025 EPS of $13.14—up 20% YoY. Just as #AI and #technology explode on X with 17K+ mentions today (fueled by AI video generators and drug discovery hype), and #business trends spotlight corporate expansions like Eli Lilly's Virginia move, LLY's AI-powered R&D pipeline positions it for viral growth in the $100B+ weight-loss market. But with a forward P/E of 28x, is LLY the undervalued pharma powerhouse ready for a rally to $1050, or will patent cliffs and competition temper the upside? Let's break down the fundamentals, SWOT, charts, and setups for September 17, 2025. Fundamental Analysis Eli Lilly's momentum is anchored in its GLP-1 dominance and innovative pipeline, with the Virginia plant bolstering U.S. production amid supply constraints for weight-loss drugs. Analysts expect 2025 revenue of $47.3B (up 18% YoY), powered by approvals for oral obesity pills and oncology breakthroughs like Verzenio. With #AI trends surging on X, LLY's use of machine learning in drug design (e.g., accelerating lung cancer therapies) undervalues its tech edge, trading 18% below fair value per DCF models. However, regulatory hurdles for new GLP-1s could delay peaks if biosimilar competition ramps up. - **Positive:** - Virginia plant announcement drives job creation buzz, aligning with #business trends and signaling supply chain resilience for 20%+ EPS growth. - Q2 beat with $2.9B in Mounjaro sales; AI integrations in R&D tie into today's #AI hype, projecting $100B+ peak sales for obesity franchise. - Broader trends in personalized medicine and #technology (19K mentions) position LLY for 15% annual revenue CAGR amid global demand. - **Negative:** - Patent expirations on key drugs like Humalog loom by 2026, clashing with #AI optimism if innovation lags. - High R&D spend ($10B+ annually) pressures margins if trial delays hit, especially in a sticky inflation environment. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Market-leading GLP-1 portfolio with 50%+ share in obesity treatments; robust cash flow ($12B FCF TTM) funds AI-driven innovations, amplified by #AI relevance in drug discovery. **Weaknesses:** Premium valuation at 28x forward P/E amid growth dependency; supply bottlenecks exposed by demand surges, vulnerable in #technology-shifting markets. **Opportunities:** Virginia expansion for 650 jobs taps #business trends; AI for faster trials unlocks $50B+ in new therapies, undervalued at 18% below fair value amid #AI boom. **Threats:** Biosimilar erosion from Novo Nordisk rivals; regulatory scrutiny on weight-loss ads during viral #technology discussions on social media. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, LLY is in a bullish uptrend, coiling in an ascending channel after bouncing from $740 support, with volume rising on plant news and mirroring #AI volatility spikes. The weekly confirms a multi-year bull flag from 2023 lows, now extending higher. Current price: $755.39, with VWAP at $752 as intraday pivot. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 72, overbought but strong positive momentum—watch for pullback amid #technology surges. 📈 - **MACD:** Bullish crossover with expanding histogram, signaling acceleration; no divergence yet. ⚠️ - **Moving Averages:** Price above 21-day EMA ($745) and 50-day SMA ($730), golden cross intact for medium-term bull. Support/Resistance: Key support at $740 (recent low and 50-day SMA), resistance at $770 (September high) and $800 (analyst target). Patterns/Momentum: Channel breakout targets $850; strong buy signals. 🟢 Bullish signals: Volume on #business news. 🔴 Bearish risks: RSI overbought could retrace 5% on profit-taking. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Break above $770 on oral pill approval or #AI catalyst targets $850 short-term, then $1050 by year-end. Buy dips to $740 for entries tied to Virginia jobs hype. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below $740 eyes $700 (200-day EMA); competition news amid #technology fade could trigger 10% pullback. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound $740–$770 if data mixed and #AI cools, suiting options or waiting for Q3 earnings. Risk Tips: Use stops 2% below support ($725) to manage volatility. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify with NVO or broader healthcare to avoid #business correlation traps. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if LLY holds $740, supercharged by today's #AI and #business trends, affirming its undervalued status with 30%+ upside on pipeline wins and expansions. But watch FDA updates and Q3 guidance for confirmation—this fits September's healthcare rotation amid viral tech hype. What’s your take? Bullish on LLY amid #AI drug trends or waiting for a dip? Share in the comments!
NYSE:LLYLong
by DCAChampion