Gold Turns at Key Support — Break or Fake Into Resistance?Gold on the H1 timeframe has completed a clean rebound from the major support zone, confirming that buyers are actively defending this area. The sharp rejection from the lows suggests the recent sell-off was corrective rather than the start of a sustained bearish trend.
Price is now recovering above the short-term structure and pushing back toward the key resistance zone around 4,425–4,450. This area is critical, as it previously acted as a strong supply region and aligns with prior breakdown levels. The current move should be treated as a reaction leg, not a confirmed continuation yet.
Two clear scenarios are in play.
Scenario 1: Price holds above the recent pullback level, consolidates, and breaks cleanly through resistance. This would open the path toward higher levels and a potential retest of the upper range and ATH zone.
Scenario 2: Price stalls or rejects at resistance, forming a lower high, which would signal ongoing range behavior and a possible rotation back toward mid-range or support.
In summary, Gold has turned bullish from support , but confirmation depends on acceptance above resistance. Until a clean breakout occurs, the market remains reactive and range-controlled, with resistance being the key decision point.
Analysis
Bitcoin Is Not Escaping Yet — This Is H2 Accumulation Hello everyone,
On the H2 timeframe, the key focus right now is not an immediate breakout, but the fact that Bitcoin remains locked inside a broad accumulation range, where price continues to rotate between clearly defined support and resistance.
Structurally, BTC has spent an extended period compressing inside the 86,200–90,500 range. Multiple upside attempts toward the upper resistance zone have been rejected, while every pullback into the lower support zone has been absorbed. This repeated rotation confirms balance, not trend, and signals that liquidity is still being built.
From a technical perspective, price is currently holding above the EMA34–EMA89 cluster, which has acted as dynamic support during the recent recovery. The latest dip was defended cleanly and followed by a push higher, forming a support-and-retest structure around the 88,200–88,400 area. This behavior shows that buyers are active, but not yet aggressive enough to force acceptance above resistance.
Importantly, there is no structural breakout at this stage. Highs remain capped below the range top, and price action continues to print overlapping swings, typical of accumulation rather than continuation. The projected path on the chart reflects this well: a shallow pullback to retest support, followed by another attempt higher toward resistance.
Resistance zone: ~90,400–90,600 — range high and breakout trigger.
Mid-range support / retest: ~88,200–88,400 — current decision area.
Major support: ~86,200–86,500 — accumulation floor.
Invalidation: Acceptance back below the EMA cluster would weaken the constructive setup.
Only a clean breakout and sustained acceptance above the resistance zone would confirm that accumulation has completed and open the door for upside expansion. Until then, Bitcoin is not trending — it is absorbing liquidity and preparing, where patience and level discipline remain critical.
Wishing you all effective and disciplined trading.
EURUSD Is Not Reversing — This Is a Pullback Into H1 SupportHello everyone,
On the H1 timeframe, the key focus right now is not the recent bearish candles, but how EURUSD is reacting after rejecting from a descending resistance and pulling back into a well-defined support zone.
Structurally, the market remains capped by a descending resistance trendline, with price consistently forming lower highs beneath it. The most recent push higher stalled precisely at the EMA cluster and the resistance zone, where sellers stepped in aggressively. This rejection confirms that upside attempts are still being sold and that bullish momentum has not yet regained control.
Following that rejection, EURUSD is now rotating lower toward the 1.1720–1.1730 support zone, which has already acted as a strong reaction base in previous sessions. This area is technically important: it marks prior demand and has previously absorbed selling pressure before producing sharp rebounds. The current move lower appears orderly and corrective, rather than an impulsive breakdown.
From a price action perspective, there is no confirmed trend reversal at this stage. The decline into support fits well with a pullback within a broader corrective structure, not a fresh bearish expansion. As long as price holds above the support zone, downside follow-through remains limited.
The projected path on the chart reflects this logic:
A test or sweep of the 1.1720 support zone to check demand
A technical rebound back toward the mid-range
Potential continuation higher toward the descending resistance if buyers regain strength
Only a clean breakdown and acceptance below the support zone would invalidate this pullback scenario and open the door for deeper downside. Conversely, a reclaim above the EMA cluster and descending trendline would be the first signal that bearish pressure is fading and that a larger recovery toward resistance is possible.
Until confirmation appears, EURUSD is not trending aggressively in either direction. It is rebalancing after rejection, and patience around key levels remains critical.
Wishing you all effective and disciplined trading.
EURUSD Holding Buyer Zone - Rebound Toward 1.1780 in FocusHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EURUSD (2H) based on the current chart structure. EURUSD is trading within a broader bullish structure after a strong upside move from the lower levels. Earlier, price advanced inside an ascending channel, confirming sustained buyer control and a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Following this impulsive rally, EURUSD broke above a key structure level and transitioned into a consolidation phase near the highs. Currently, price is reacting around the Buyer Zone near 1.1740, which aligns with a key Support Level and a previous breakout area. This zone has already shown multiple reactions, indicating active demand. Above, the market remains capped by a descending Resistance Line and the Seller Zone around 1.1780, where selling pressure previously caused a rejection. The recent move into support appears corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting a pause within the broader bullish trend. My scenario: as long as EURUSD holds above the 1.1740 Buyer Zone, the bullish structure remains intact. A strong reaction from this area could lead to another push toward the 1.1780 Resistance Level (TP1). A confirmed breakout and acceptance above resistance would open the door for further upside continuation. However, a decisive breakdown below the buyer zone would weaken the bullish setup and signal a deeper corrective move toward lower support levels. For now, price remains at a key decision area, with buyers defending structure while consolidation continues. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD: Fake Breakdown from Support Signals Potential ReversalHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD previously traded inside a clearly defined range, where price moved sideways and showed equilibrium between buyers and sellers. From this range, price attempted a bullish breakout, but the move resulted in a fake breakout into the upper area, signaling strong selling pressure inside the Resistance Zone around 1.1750–1.1760. This zone was tested multiple times, and each attempt to hold above it failed, confirming it as a strong supply area.
Currently, price is trading below the key resistance and remains structurally bearish. The highlighted move suggests a potential corrective pullback from support toward the descending channel resistance, which aligns closely with the horizontal resistance zone around 1.1750.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario: as long as EURUSD holds above the 1.1680 Support Zone and no strong bearish acceptance occurs below it, the bullish bias is favored in the short term. I expect buyers to push price higher toward the descending channel resistance and horizontal Resistance Zone around 1.1740, which acts as TP1. A clean breakout and acceptance above the 1.1750 Resistance Zone would confirm stronger bullish continuation and open the door for a move toward higher highs.
However, a decisive breakdown and close below the support zone would invalidate the long scenario and signal renewed bearish continuation. For now, the market is at a key reaction area, and the long setup depends on buyers continuing to defend support.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
BTCUSDT Holding Higher Lows, $94,700 Resistance in FocusHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTCUSDT (3H) based on the current chart structure. BTCUSDT initially experienced a strong sell-off, marked by aggressive bearish momentum as price dropped from higher levels. After this decline, the market found a base and started to grow, transitioning into an ascending channel. This phase showed a clear shift in control from sellers to buyers, supported by a rising support line and multiple bullish reactions along the channel. However, as price approached the upper boundary of the channel and the Seller Zone, upside momentum began to slow. During this phase, BTC formed several fake breakouts and failed attempts to hold above resistance, signaling strong selling pressure near the highs. Price then broke back below short-term structure and entered a consolidation phase, forming a clear range. This range reflected temporary balance, with buyers defending the lower boundary while sellers capped the upside. Recently, BTC broke out from the range to the upside and reclaimed the Buyer Zone, confirming renewed bullish intent. Price is now trading above key support around 91,500–92,000 and is respecting the rising support line, indicating that buyers are actively defending pullbacks. The current move is pushing price back toward the Resistance Level and Seller Zone around 94,700, where a test is expected. My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the Buyer Zone and the rising support line, the bullish bias remains intact. I expect price to retest the 94,700 Resistance, with TP1 aligned near this level. A clean breakout and acceptance above resistance would confirm bullish continuation and open the door for higher targets. However, a strong rejection from the Seller Zone followed by a breakdown below support would invalidate the bullish scenario and suggest a deeper corrective move. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
BTC $94.5K Fatigue: Decoding the $92.3K Line in the SandBitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Breakdown
Bitcoin recently completed a steep impulsive move, encountering significant selling pressure at the Resistance Zone ($94,400 – $94,600). The appearance of long upper wicks (rejection candles) at this level confirms that profit-taking is underway, pushing price back to test internal liquidity.
The pair is currently trading near the blue EMA, which serves as immediate dynamic support. However, the short-term bias remains tilted toward a deeper "healthy pullback" to re-accumulate buy orders. The Support Zone around $92,300 is the critical "pivot area" where institutional demand is expected to resurface.
Key technical scenarios:
- Base-case scenario: Following the projected path on the chart, BTC is likely to continue its retracement toward the $92,300 support. A bullish reversal signature (such as a pin bar or engulfing pattern) at this level would confirm a Higher Low (HL) and set the stage for a recovery test of $93,300 and beyond.
- Bullish continuation: Should the bulls defend the $92,900 level and decisively reclaim $93,500, the correction may end prematurely, opening the door for an immediate retest of the $94,500 supply zone.
- Bearish risk: A decisive close below the $92,000 psychological level would invalidate the immediate bullish structure. This would expose BTC to a deeper correction toward $91,000 or the $90,000 liquidity pool.
Macro Drivers Impacting Bitcoin
As of January 2026, Bitcoin's price action is heavily influenced by institutional flows and global macro shifts:
- ETF Inflows & Institutional Floor: The maturity of Spot ETFs has created a persistent "floor" for price. Current volatility is likely driven by early-year portfolio rebalancing by major asset managers.
- Monetary Policy & Fed Outlook: Market participants are closely monitoring Fed signals. Expectations of quantitative easing or rate pauses in Q2 2026 continue to support the long-term "debasement trade" narrative, favoring BTC.
- Geopolitical Risk Premium: Ongoing tensions in key global regions (Middle East/Eastern Europe) reinforce Bitcoin’s status as "Digital Gold." Safe-haven flows tend to limit the downside during macro uncertainty.
- Risk-On vs. Risk-Off Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index remains in "Greed" territory. While the trend is bullish, this high sentiment often precedes "liquidity sweeps" where over-leveraged long positions are flushed out at key support levels.
Summary
Technically, Bitcoin is undergoing a textbook correction after hitting a major resistance ceiling. This phase is essential for market health, allowing for the rotation of capital and the removal of weak-handed leverage.
The $92,300 support is the line in the sand. As long as price holds above this zone, the broader bullish trend remains intact. Traders should remain disciplined, waiting for confirmed price rejection at support rather than chasing the move mid-range.
The Euro’s Bullish Blueprint: Identifying the Breakout TriggerHello everyone,
On the H1 timeframe, the key focus right now is not the minor fluctuations around the EMA 50, but how EURUSD is positioning itself within a tight consolidation range between a proven support base and a looming resistance ceiling.
Structurally, the market has transitioned from a sharp impulsive drop into a steady recovery phase, characterized by the formation of higher lows. Price is currently grappling with the EMA 50 and the lower boundary of the 1.1750–1.1760 resistance zone. This area represents a significant hurdle; a successful breach here would signal that the corrective phase is over and that buyers have successfully reclaimed the mid-term momentum.
Following the recent bounce from the 1.1710–1.1720 support zone, EURUSD is showing signs of accumulation. This support area is technically critical as it represents a "demand pocket" where buyers have previously intervened to halt deeper declines. The current price action suggests that the market is gathering liquidity for a potential push higher, rather than preparing for a breakdown.
From a price action perspective, we are seeing a "squeeze" against the resistance. As long as the higher-low structure remains intact, the bias leans toward an upside resolution. The move appears to be a preparation for a trend continuation toward the higher targets identified on the chart, provided the resistance zone is flipped into support.
The projected path on the chart reflects this logic:
- A decisive break above the 1.1760 Resistance Zone to reach Target 1.
- A technical pullback to retest the breached zone, confirming it as new support.
- A secondary rally toward Target 2 (1.1779) and eventually Target 3 (1.1807).
Only a clean breakdown and acceptance below the 1.1710 support zone would invalidate this recovery scenario and shift the focus back to the bearish lows. Conversely, a daily close above the current resistance zone would be the definitive signal that a larger bullish cycle has commenced.
Until the breakout is confirmed, EURUSD remains in a "wait-and see" compression. Patience around these key levels is essential to avoid being caught in a fake-out.
Wishing you all effective and disciplined trading.
Gold Bulls Eye the Horizon: Old ATH is the Next DestinationXAUUSD H1 – Market Analysis
1. Current Market Structure
Gold continues to exhibit a powerful bullish structure on the H1 timeframe.
The price action is characterized by a series of aggressive impulsive moves followed by shallow consolidations, maintaining the higher high – higher low sequence.
Currently, the market is holding steady above a freshly established support base, indicating that the uptrend is healthy and not overextended.
2. Key Zones & Market Positioning
Main Support Zone: 4430 – 4437
-> This is the primary demand area where buyers successfully absorbed selling pressure.
Current Trading Range: 4437 – 4499
Resistance / Target Zones:
Resistance Zone: 4499 – 4510 (The final hurdle before the open sky).
Target 2: ~4499.
Target 3: ~4524.
Final Target: 4549 (Old ATH).
The bullish roadmap remains intact as long as the 4430 support level is defended.
3. Liquidity & Price Behavior
The upward slope of the EMAs provides a clear trend filter, acting as dynamic support for every minor dip.
Long lower wicks at the 4437 level confirm that sell-side liquidity is being aggressively harvested by institutional buyers.
Price is currently tightening its range, a classic sign of energy accumulation before a breakout attempt toward the upper resistance levels.
4. Today’s Market Scenario
🔼 Primary Scenario – Bullish Continuation
Expected flow: Price continues to consolidate above the 4437 zone to build momentum.
A decisive breach of the 4499 – 4510 resistance will likely lead to a rapid expansion toward Target 3 (4524) and the ultimate retest of the Old ATH at 4549.
🔽 Invalidation Scenario
A breakdown and sustained close below 4430 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis, potentially leading to a deeper corrective phase toward 4408.
5. Trading Perspective
Bias: Strongly Bullish – Buy the pullback.
Strategy: Focus on long entries near the 4430 – 4437 support zone.
Avoid chasing the price as it approaches the 4500 psychological level; instead, wait for price action confirmation (rejection of the dip) to enter with a superior risk/reward ratio.
Summary
Gold is in a clear "Buy the Dip" regime.
The 4430 – 4437 zone is the foundation for the next leg up.
As long as this floor holds, the path of least resistance is toward 4549.
Roadmap: Consolidation → Support Hold → Expansion to ATH.
Gold’s Disciplined Climb: Is the $4,541 Target the NextXAUUSD / H1 — Market Update
Gold is maintaining a highly disciplined bullish posture, advancing within a well-defined ascending parallel channel. The market structure is characterized by a textbook series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows (noted by the orange reaction circles), signaling sustained buying pressure and strong trend health. Currently, price is navigating the upper half of the channel, eyeing a major liquidity pool sitting at the horizontal resistance level.
The technical alignment is strongly supportive of the upside. Both the EMA 34 (Blue) and EMA 89 (Yellow) are sloping upward with healthy separation, acting as dynamic support zones. The current price action suggests a brief period of consolidation or a minor "buy-the-dip" opportunity as the market prepares for the next impulsive leg toward the psychological and technical targets above.
Key Levels
Resistance: 4,520 (Channel Top) – 4,541 (Major Horizontal Ceiling)
Support: 4,445 – 4,455 (Channel Lower Boundary / Demand Zone)
EMA Support: ~4,428 (EMA 34)
Trading Scenarios
➡️ Primary: A shallow pullback toward the 4,445 – 4,455 zone (intercepting the lower trendline) → validation of a Higher Low → continuation higher toward the 4,541 liquidity target.
⚠️ Risk: A decisive hourly close below 4,428 (EMA 34) would signal a temporary shift in momentum, likely leading to a deeper correction toward the EMA 89 (~4,400) before any further upside attempts.
Market Analysis & Reaffirmation of Trading PlanMarket Analysis & Reaffirmation of Trading Plan
- Today's market is moving exactly as planned yesterday. After a consolidation phase and absorption of liquidity around the 4.38x – 4.40x range, the price has clearly broken out, confirming the return of large capital flows. The market structure on the H4 timeframe has shifted to a higher high – higher low, indicating that the uptrend has been established and is being maintained.
- The price holding above the breakout zone not only reinforces the trend but also proves that following the structure was the correct choice. The current corrections are merely technical, serving to create more liquidity for the market to continue expanding its range.
Message to the community:
- The market is not random. When you correctly read the structure, identify the correct price zone, and patiently wait for confirmation, the advantage will automatically be on your side.
- A correct plan doesn't need fanfare The results are the clearest evidence of a leader's position.
TODAY'S LIMITED STRATEGY JAN 6
Intraday trading: Increase
📌 SET UP 1. Timming Sell Zone
XAUUSD SELL ZONE: 4517 - 4520
💰 Take Profit(TP): 4514 - 4509
❎ Stoploss(SL): 4524
Note capital management to ensure account safety
📌 SET UP 2. Timming Buy Zone
XAUUSD BUY ZONE: 4394 - 4397
💰 Take Profit(TP): 4400 - 4405
❎ Stoploss(SL): 4390
Note capital management to ensure account safety
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 6, 2025 GBPUSDGBP/USD remains near 1.35 after a strong rise at the end of last year, but the dynamics increasingly depend on sentiment around the US dollar. Following a volatility spike driven by foreign-policy headlines, the market is returning to macroeconomic assessment, while the dollar is trying to hold ground amid demand for liquidity.
For the pound, the key drivers are expectations for the Bank of England’s rate path and the state of the UK economy. Signs of slowing growth and cautious consumer behavior raise the likelihood of further policy easing if inflation continues to cool and the labor market weakens. This limits the sustainability of sterling gains even during short periods of dollar softness.
In the US, labor-market and price reports are important this week: strong figures could restore support for the dollar via higher yields and a repricing of rate expectations. In this environment, GBP/USD looks vulnerable to a pullback, especially if participants reduce risk exposure.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.35600, SL 1.36000, TP 1.34400
Gold is currently experiencing strong growth.1️⃣ Trendline
Short-term trend: bullish pullback within a larger bearish trend.
Price has broken the descending trendline → confirming a short-term structural shift.
However, price is still below a major supply zone → no medium–long-term reversal yet.
2️⃣ Support
4,400 – 4,402
Key support zone
Confluence of: demand zone + Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 + EMA
→ Area for technical buy reactions / holding buy positions.
Below 4,400: short-term bullish structure is invalidated.
3️⃣ Resistance
4,515 – 4,517
Strong resistance zone
Confluence of: Fibonacci 1.618 + previous supply zone
→ Prioritize sell reactions, avoid FOMO buying.
4️⃣ Fibonacci
Current rebound has reached:
1.0 → trendline break
Next target: 1.618 (4,515)
Only a clean breakout above 1.618 would open the door for a higher bullish scenario.
📌 Trade Setup
BUY GOLD: 4402 – 4400
Stop Loss: 4390
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
SELL GOLD: 4515 – 4517
Stop Loss: 4527
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
H4 US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 98.70 on the 4H chart, and it’s looking like it’s going to continue its recovery within that rising channel from the low at 97.75. Price has managed to take back the 50% Fib level at 98.24 and is now testing the resistance at 98.74 – which just so happens to be where a prior support level used to be.
The 200-EMA at 99.00 is a big deal as far as upside goes, while the supports sit at 98.12 and 97.9. RSI is sitting at 58, which is a pretty good sign. The trade idea is to pick up a few dollars on the dip near 98.30 and aim for 99.20, but set a stop loss below 97.95.
What's new in gold prices this week? 01/05/20261️⃣ Trendline
Short-term: Bearish. Price remains below the descending trendline → selling pressure is still dominant.
Structure: Weak technical pullback, forming a lower high → no clear reversal signal yet.
2️⃣ Resistance
4,445 – 4,447: Strong resistance, confluence of Fibonacci 0.618 + trendline touch → ideal sell zone if confirmation appears.
3️⃣ Support
4,396 – 4,394: Near-term support + previous breakout zone + lower trendline touch.
4,333 – 4,331: Major support + GAP area + lower trendline touch.
4️⃣ Scenarios
Priority: Look for SELL setups at resistance, trading with the trend.
BUY: Only reactive buys at strong support levels, no FOMO.
Trade Plan
BUY GOLD: 4333 – 4331
Stop Loss: 4321
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
SELL GOLD: 4445 – 4447
Stop Loss: 4457
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
Weekly outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 09 January 2026XAUUSD: BUY 4415.50, SL 4380.00, TP 4522.00
Gold starts the week near 4415.50 per ounce: thin trading at the beginning of the year has amplified reactions to news from Venezuela and broader geopolitical tension, lifting demand for safe-haven assets. Support also comes from expectations of lower US interest rates in 2026 and continued buying by central banks.
For the week of January 5–9, the focus is on US data on business activity and the labor market, with the key event being Friday’s jobs report. Weaker figures could strengthen interest in gold, while strong numbers may boost the dollar and cool the market temporarily.
Trading recommendation: BUY 4415.50, SL 4380.00, TP 4522.00
#SP500: BUY 6858, SL 6778, TP 7098
The #SP500 is holding around 6858 at the start of the first full week of 2026: investors are weighing geopolitics and oil, but the main guide remains expectations for US interest rates. After a strong finish to 2025, the market enters the week with a cautious tone.
The week of January 5–9 is packed with US statistics, with Friday’s employment report as the highlight. Moderate data would support equities through hopes of lower borrowing costs, while a surprise rise in inflation expectations and yields could increase pressure on the stock market.
Trading recommendation: BUY 6858, SL 6778, TP 7098
#BRENT: SELL 60.43, SL 62.10, TP 55.40
#BRENT is trading near 60.43 per barrel: news around Venezuela has added sharp swings, but the market sees no major supply disruptions for now. OPEC+ is keeping current output settings, and talk of potential supply growth ahead is capping prices.
For the week of January 5–9, the spotlight is on demand signals via US statistics and updates from China, as well as the regular US inventory figures. If demand stays soft and the dollar strengthens, oil risks sliding; however, tighter sanctions or logistical disruptions could quickly restore support.
Trading recommendation: SELL 60.43, SL 62.10, TP 55.40
Can the Venezuela Crisis Spark the Next Rally?Gold (XAUUSD) Price Outlook: Can the Venezuela Crisis Spark the Next Rally?
1. Market Context: Margin Hike Drives Forced Selling, Not Structural Weakness
Gold closed last week with a sharp downside move, but the decline was driven primarily by a technical and mechanical factor rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. The increase in futures margin requirements forced leveraged traders to liquidate positions, triggering a cascade of sell orders. This type of margin-driven selloff typically exaggerates price moves and does not, by itself, signal a change in the broader trend. Despite the magnitude of the drop, the long-term bullish structure remains intact.
2. Trader Behavior Shift: From Momentum Chasing to Selective Positioning
For several months, traders aggressively chased upside momentum, consistently lifting offers as price moved higher. The margin hike has altered that behavior. With higher capital requirements, participants are now more selective, focusing on value zones and confirmation rather than momentum alone. Until upside momentum re-emerges, gold is likely to trade with more caution and tactical positioning rather than impulsive trend extension.
3. Weekly Close Snapshot: Sharp Loss, Trend Still Preserved
XAUUSD settled last week at $4,332.06, down $201.14 (-4.44%). While the weekly decline was significant, it did not violate the core structure of the uptrend. From a professional trading perspective, this type of correction is consistent with position rebalancing rather than trend failure, especially after an extended rally.
4. Primary Technical Structure: Defining Bullish and Bearish Boundaries
From a technical standpoint, the main trend remains bullish. A sustained break above $4,550 would confirm trend continuation and signal renewed upside expansion. Conversely, the trend would only shift decisively bearish if price breaks below $3,886 on a weekly closing basis. Until one of these levels is resolved, gold remains structurally bullish within a corrective phase.
5. Key Decision Zone: $4,218–$4,139 Sets the Near-Term Tone
The most critical area in the current structure lies between $4,218 and $4,139, a key retracement zone. Price reaction here will determine the next directional move. Strong buying interest on the first test would suggest the formation of a secondary higher low, reinforcing bullish continuation toward the record high near $4,550. Failure to hold $4,139, however, would signal weakness and increase the probability of a deeper corrective leg toward $3,886.
6. Long-Term Value Area: Where Institutional Buyers May Step In
For longer-term positioning, the weekly chart highlights a high-confluence support cluster between $3,545 and $3,472. This zone aligns with the 50% retracement of the rally from the November 2024 low at $2,537, as well as the 52-week moving average near $3,472. As long as this moving average holds, the broader market regime remains firmly in “buy-the-dip” mode rather than a trend reversal environment.
7. Geopolitical Catalyst: Venezuela Crisis Adds Risk Premium
Fundamentally, gold has received a fresh tailwind from rising geopolitical uncertainty. Developments in Venezuela escalated after the U.S. launched a military strike and detained President Nicolás Maduro on criminal charges. President Donald Trump’s statement that the U.S. would oversee Venezuela during a transition period has added further uncertainty. Any escalation or instability tied to this situation has the potential to reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium into gold prices.
8. Macro Focus: U.S. Jobs Data and Fed Policy Expectations
Attention now turns to the upcoming December U.S. jobs report, which will be closely monitored by both traders and policymakers. Federal Reserve officials have emphasized that labor market conditions will play a key role in shaping the rate-cut path into 2026. Recent policy minutes revealed internal divisions, with labor data and inflation as the primary points of disagreement. A weaker employment print could strengthen expectations for additional rate cuts, indirectly supporting gold.
9. Week Ahead Outlook: Volatility Before Clarity
In the near term, gold is likely to experience heightened volatility as markets react to developments in Venezuela. Bias may remain cautiously to the upside as long as geopolitical uncertainty persists. However, the more decisive macro-driven move may not materialize until after the jobs data is fully absorbed. For now, gold sits at a critical junction—supported by long-term structure, constrained by near-term resistance, and highly sensitive to geopolitical and macroeconomic headlines.
Can Bitcoin Hold This Level?Hello Traders,
On the H1 timeframe, Bitcoin is currently trading back into a clearly defined resistance zone after recovering from the prior sell-off. The recent price action shows a series of higher lows, indicating short-term bullish pressure rebuilding as price rotates upward toward supply.
This resistance zone is a key decision area. Historically, this level has acted as a distribution zone, and price reaction here will determine whether the move develops into a sustained continuation or another corrective rotation.
If price manages to break above the resistance and hold with acceptance, the structure opens the path toward higher targets, as marked on the chart. In this scenario, continuation would likely unfold in stages, with upside extensions toward Target 1, then Target 2, and potentially Target 3, assuming structure remains intact.
However, failure to accept above resistance would likely trigger a pullback. A rejection from this zone could rotate price back toward the mid-range support levels. As long as price holds above the broader support zone, such a move would still be considered a corrective pullback within a developing recovery, not a full bearish reversal.
The bullish continuation scenario is invalidated if price decisively breaks below the marked support zone and shows acceptance below it. That would signal a structural failure and reopen the downside.
At this point, Bitcoin is not at a high-conviction entry area but at a decision zone. Patience and confirmation are required. Let the market show whether it accepts above resistance or rotates back toward support before committing to directional bias.
Share your view below.
USDJPY — Multi-Timeframe Short Bias (1M, 1Week,D / 4H)After a choppy bullish move, price is now reacting to a fresh 4H supply zone, where selling pressure is beginning to show. This area aligns well with higher-timeframe resistance and presents a potential downside opportunity.
From a daily and 4H perspective, market structure shows signs of weakening momentum as price struggles to continue higher. The setup highlighted on the chart offers a 1:2 risk-to-reward, targeting the downside if supply holds.
Zooming out to the monthly timeframe, price is currently trading into a fresh higher-timeframe supply zone. As we move into January, momentum appears to be slowing, I suggesting distribution at these levels.
This technical view is further supported by fundamentals:
Recent COT data shows increasing strength in the Japanese Yen
The U.S. Dollar is weakening as price reacts to higher-timeframe resistance
If supply continues to hold, price could rotate lower toward the 149.960 zone.
This is my current bias on USDJPY.
As always, waiting for confirmation is key.
Happy trading 📊
EURUSD Strong Bearish Continuation ScenarioQuick Summary
EURUSD continues to decline with strong momentum and is expected to extend the move toward 1.16610. There is currently no technical reason supporting a bullish reversal since all upside levels are already mitigated. However, if price rallies first toward the equal highs at 1.17633, that area would also present a valid sell opportunity.
Full Analysis
EURUSD remains under clear bearish pressure and continues to move lower with strong momentum. The current price action does not show any meaningful signs of exhaustion or accumulation that would justify a bullish scenario at this moment. All nearby upside levels have already been mitigated, removing the incentive for the market to push higher in the short term.
Given this context, the most likely path for price is a continuation of the decline toward the 1.16610 level. This level represents the next logical downside objective where liquidity may be resting and where the market could pause or reassess direction.
That said, an alternative scenario must also be considered. If price unexpectedly retraces higher before continuing its drop and reaches the equal highs at 1.17633, this area would act as a strong sell zone. Equal highs often attract liquidity, and a reaction from this level would offer another high probability opportunity to align with the prevailing bearish bias.
EURUSD Awaiting Confirmation Before Bearish ContinuationQuick Summary
EURUSD has rallied strongly in recent days leaving a clear liquidity void below price .. A break above 1.18039 is expected first After that a bearish structure is required to confirm that the upside move is complete and that price is ready to target lower levels
Full Analysis
After the strong bullish expansion on EURUSD the market left a significant liquidity void below current price, This makes a downside move likely at some point However selling directly into this strength is not justified without clear confirmation
From a Liquidity perspective price is expected to first break the high at 1.18039 This move would allow the market to collect remaining buy side liquidity and complete the upside objective Once this high is taken the focus will shift to price behavior and structure
A bearish structure must appear after the break of 1.18039 This would be the key confirmation that bullish momentum has weakened and that the market is transitioning from expansion to distribution Without this confirmation any sell position would be premature and exposed to further upside continuation
BTCUSDT (W1)🔍 Market Structure
For many months, the uptrend has been in a channel – clear higher highs and higher lows.
A breakout from the uptrend channel → indicates a change in market structure (BOS) to weekly.
The current move is a correction after a downward impulse, not a new uptrend.
➡️ HTF Bias: BEARISH / Corrective
🧱 Key Levels
🟢 Resistance (now resistance)
98,000 – 100,000 → former support, currently flipping to resistance
109,000 → strong weekly supply / EQ of the previous range
~125,000 → upper band of the old channel (unrealistic without a change in structure)
🔴 Support
85,400 → current reaction zone (local demand)
74,300 → key weekly demand, a very important level
Below: ~68–70k (another HTF zone – not marked, but logical)
📉 Price Action
Strong, impulsive bearish candle + long lower wick → liquidations + panic sell
No strong upward momentum after the rebound → weak demand
Current move = bear flag / bear range
➡️ This does NOT look like the end of the correction.
📊 Volume
High volume on the decline → distribution
Declining volume on the bounce → no real buyers
➡️ Classic pattern: dump → weak bounce → continuation
📈 Indicators
Stochastic RSI (W1)
In the oversold zone, but:
No strong bullish cross + no price impulse
➡️ May grind low for many weeks
CHOP
Falling → market preparing for a bigger move
Direction still more down than up
🧠 Scenarios
🟥 Baseline scenario (most likely)
Rejection 98-100k
Return to 85k
Test 74k
Only then the decision is made: bounce vs. Deeper bear market
🟩 Alternative scenario (less likely)
Weekly close above 100k
Retest of 98k as support
Only then can we consider 109k
❗ Key takeaways
❌ This is not a good time to go long on HTF
❌ The current rebound is a pullback, not a reversal
✅ Shorts only on retests of resistance
✅ Spot DCA only makes sense at 74k ±






















