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USD/CAD - Fundamental Drives (13.11.2025)🧠 Setup Overview OANDA:USDCAD USD/CAD continues to face strong rejection from the resistance zone, with price failing multiple times to break above the 1.4020–1.4045 supply area. The market structure remains bearish as the pair forms lower highs and struggles to sustain upside momentum. With fundamentals also favoring CAD strength, the downside scenario remains more probable. 📊 Trading Plan🔻 Sell Bias Look for bearish confirmation near or below the resistance zone Continuation to the downside expected toward key support levels 🎯 Targets: 1st Support: 1.3969 2nd Support: 1.3950 🔰 Resistance Zone: 1.4020 – 1.4045 ⚡ Fundamental Updates (Today – 13 Nov 2025) 1️⃣ Bank of Canada (BoC) signaled no further interest rate cuts, which strengthened the CAD. • A stable or moderately hawkish BoC typically supports CAD appreciation. 2️⃣ US Treasury yields continue to fall as markets increase bets on the Federal Reserve easing policy in the coming months. • Lower yields = weaker USD, helping push USD/CAD lower. 📌 High Impact Event Today: USD - CPI (Inflation Rate) → A softer CPI reading could accelerate USD weakness. #USDCAD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ResistanceZone #FXMarket #FundamentalAnalysis #ChartPatterns #KABHI_TA_TRADING #ChartsDontLieTradersDontQuit #USD #CAD #TradingView #ForexSignals #BearishSetup #IntradayTrading ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for education only. It is not financial advice. Always apply proper risk management and trade based on your own confirmation. 💬 Support My Work ❤️ If this analysis helps you —👉 LIKE 👍 👉 COMMENT 💬 👉 FOLLOW 🔔 Your support motivates more daily chart breakdowns and setups!
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
27
BTC 1W Chart !🔥 1. GENERAL TREND (1W) The long-term trend is still upwards because: • the price stays in the orange channel, • the black trend line (key) has not been broken. But at the same time: ➡️ We see correction after local ATH around 115-120k. This is a typical cyclical decline after breaking out from the extremes. ⸻ 🔥 2. KEY LEVELS OF YOUR CHART Closest support (S) 1. 94 315 → current retest 2. 85,895 → key trend support 3. 74,896 → the most important defensive level against mega relegation Nearest resistances (R) 1. 105,901 – the first serious resistance 2. 114 437 – strong ceiling 3. 125,907 – potential target for a new growth impulse ⸻ 🔥 3. STOCHASTIC SITUATION (1W) Stoch is deeply oversold → a signal of a potential rebound. On a weekly basis, such signals usually mean: • local minimum, • beginning of a new growth wave in the 4-8 week window. ⸻ 🔥 4. MARKET STRUCTURE (PRICE ACTION) The current candles suggest: • a strong defense attempt on 94k, • getting closer to the black trend line, • there is still room to move higher in the orange channel. This looks like: ➡️ a correction in the upward trend, not a change in the trend. ⸻ 🔥 5. SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT WEEKS 🟢 Growth scenario (more likely) Condition: maintaining 94k or black trendline Targets: • 105,900 – first target • 114,400 – medium target • 125 900 – full swing to the upper edge of the channel Probability: 60-70% (because Stoch is sold out + entry to support the channel) ⸻ 🔴 Downside scenario (less realistic) Condition: weekly close below the black trendline Only then do we fly: 1. 85,900 2. 74,900 – an absolute must-hold A break of 74,900 would mean: ➡️ end of the growth channel ➡️ entering a long-term bear market Probability: 30-40% ⸻ 🔥 6. Summary in points Current situation • BTC is sitting right on support. • Weekly Stochastic = buy signal. • Growth channel still intact. • The market looks like it's getting ready to rebound. If 94k stays → we go to 105k+, then 114k. If he hits the black line → 85k and 74k in the game.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
BTCUSD Long: Rebound From Demand Line Targets $104K ResistanceHello traders! Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to trade within a well-defined structure, showing a gradual transition from a bearish phase toward potential accumulation. After an extended decline inside the Descending Channel, the market found strong support around the $100,600–$101,000 Demand Zone, where a fake breakout occurred — signaling liquidity grabs and renewed buyer interest. This zone has acted as a major reaction area multiple times, marking it as a key demand region. Following the rebound from this level, BTCUSD formed a Pivot Point near $101,200, initiating a mild bullish recovery along the Demand Line, which now serves as dynamic support. However, price remains capped below the $104,000 Supply Zone, an area that aligns with both the upper boundary of the current Range and the previous Fibonacci Arc retracement, where sellers previously re-entered the market. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $101,200 support and $104,000 resistance, reflecting indecision before a potential breakout. If buyers manage to defend the Demand Line and reclaim $103,000, a move toward $104,000 and possibly higher could follow, completing the short-term recovery phase. Conversely, a confirmed breakdown below $101,000 would invalidate the bullish scenario, likely driving price back toward the $100,000–$99,600 zone for another liquidity test. I expect the current structure suggests Bitcoin is in a neutral-to-bullish phase, with attention focused on how price reacts around the Demand Line and Range boundaries. A strong rebound from current levels could trigger the next leg toward $104,000 resistance. Manage your risk!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by heniitrading
10
BTCUSD: Bulls Defend $102K Zone — Eyeing Breakout Toward $107KHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Bitcoin setup. Market Analysis BTCUSD is trading within a well-defined triangle formation after a period of volatile movements between $102,500 and $107,000. The chart shows that price recently rebounded from the Triangle Support Line, aligning with the $102,000–$103,000 Support Zone, where buyers have consistently stepped in to defend this level. This zone has acted as a strong accumulation area, confirmed by multiple bounces and rejection wicks signaling absorption of selling pressure. Currently, after a fake breakout to the downside, BTCUSD quickly recovered, retesting the Resistance Zone near $105,000–$105,500, which also aligns with the Triangle Resistance Line. This confluence area represents the next key reaction point. A confirmed breakout above this resistance would indicate a potential continuation of the broader bullish trend, while a rejection here could lead to a short-term correction back toward the support base. The market behavior shows constructive consolidation, with higher lows forming along the support trend line — a sign that buyers are gradually regaining control. As long as BTCUSD remains above $102,000, the short-term structure favors further upside movement within the triangle, aiming toward the $106,500–$107,000 resistance area. My Scenario & Strategy As long as Bitcoin holds above the $102,000–$103,000 Support Zone, the bullish outlook remains valid. The first upside objective (TP1) is the $106,500–$107,000 Resistance Area, where traders should watch for potential rejection or breakout signals. A confirmed breakout and close above $107,000 could trigger an extension toward $109,000–$110,000, aligning with the upper boundary of the triangle and the previous reaction zone. However, if BTCUSD fails to hold above $102,000, this would invalidate the bullish scenario and open the way for a deeper pullback toward $100,000–$99,000, where fresh buying interest may emerge. For now, the structure supports buying pullbacks while price remains above the ascending Triangle Support Line, as momentum continues to favor the bulls. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Ratner
22
XAUUSD Retests Resistance — Pullback Toward $4,060 SupportHello traders! Let’s take a look at XAUUSD (Gold). After a prolonged bullish movement within a well-defined ascending channel, price reached a significant Resistance Level near $4,200, where sellers stepped in to regain control. This resistance coincides with the upper boundary of a descending resistance line, confirming its importance as a reaction area. Following this rejection, Gold experienced a sharp correction, forming a Range structure near the top before breaking below it — marking a shift in short-term sentiment. The breakout from this range confirmed the beginning of a downward phase, where price continued to move inside a new descending pattern. Currently, XAUUSD is testing the resistance line once again after a breakout retest from below. This area aligns with a former pivot zone where several reversals occurred in the past. The overall structure suggests that buyers are losing momentum, while sellers are preparing to defend this key zone. As long as price remains below the $4,160–$4,200 resistance, a corrective pullback toward the $4,060 Support Level (TP1) looks likely. This area also aligns with the ascending support line, which may act as the next major decision point. A clean break below $4,060 could extend the decline toward the $3,950–$3,970 zone, while a confirmed breakout above $4,200 would invalidate the short scenario and potentially trigger another bullish continuation phase. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
18
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 14, 2025 GBPUSDThe pound remains pressured by a mix of domestic and external factors. Fresh U.K. releases point to slower economic activity and keep alive the discussion about whether the Bank of England should ease policy late this year or in early next year. This backdrop limits capital inflows into sterling assets and heightens GBP’s sensitivity to swings in global risk appetite. Fiscal headlines and budget expectations add another layer of uncertainty. Talk of adjusting tax-and-spend plans makes investors more cautious, while elevated government borrowing costs lift the economy’s financing burden. Against this backdrop, markets prefer defensive positioning, which caps the pound’s upside versus the dollar. External drivers look neutral-to-negative for GBP: episodes of dollar softness are intermittent, and overall market volatility plus the pound’s dependence on U.S. yields make it hard for GBP/USD to mount a durable rally. Until clearer signals emerge on the inflation path and BoE decisions, the risk of renewed GBP/USD declines stays elevated. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.31500, SL 1.32050, TP 1.30650.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GOLD HOLDS STRONG ABOVE $4,200! 🚀 XAUUSD DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS Thursday, November 14, 2025 💰 GOLD HOLDS STRONG ABOVE $4,200! 📈 Current Price: $4,189 - $4,235 💎 Yesterday's Close: $4,231 (+0.86%) Weekly Gain: +5.4% (MASSIVE!) 🔥 Status: 🟢 CONSOLIDATING AT HIGHS 🎯 MARKET UPDATE - WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW? Gold is CONSOLIDATING above the critical $4,200 level after yesterday's explosive breakout! The market is catching its breath after a 5-day winning streak that pushed prices up over $330 from last month's lows. Key Developments: ✅ Government Shutdown ENDED - US House passed funding bill ✅ Strong Above $4,200 - Holding key psychological level ✅ Fed Rate Cut at 80% - Economists now predicting December cut ✅ Four Consecutive Green Days - Bullish momentum intact ✅ Testing $4,235 - Approaching critical resistance zone 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Market Structure: BULLISH CONSOLIDATION 🟢 The rally has paused for a healthy consolidation. This is NORMAL and HEALTHY after a 5.4% weekly gain. Gold is building a base for the next leg up! Key Observation: Price is respecting the $4,189-$4,235 range today - this is a coiling pattern before the next move. Critical Support Levels (BUY ZONES) 🔵 Support 1: $4,189 - $4,200 (MAJOR - Former resistance) Support 2: $4,157 - $4,160 (Strong base) Support 3: $4,114 - $4,120 (Key level) Support 4: $4,048 - $4,060 (Breakout point) Support 5: $3,987 - $4,002 (November open) Key Resistance Levels (SELL/TARGET ZONES) 🔴 Resistance 1: $4,235 - $4,243 (Current test) Resistance 2: $4,252 - $4,254 (Critical breakout level) Resistance 3: $4,313 - $4,320 (Next target) Resistance 4: $4,356 - $4,382 (All-time high zone) 📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS RSI (14): 64 (Bullish but cooling - Room to move higher) ✅ MACD: Positive and rising - Strong bullish signal ✅ Stochastic: Neutral zone - Allows for upward movement ✅ Moving Averages: Price WELL ABOVE all EMAs ✅ EMA 20/50/200 all aligned bullish ✅ Golden Cross confirmed ✅ Volume: Strong on rallies, lighter on dips (Healthy) ✅ Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band - Volatility expansion mode 🎯 TODAY'S TRADING STRATEGIES SCENARIO 1: BREAKOUT CONTINUATION 🚀 (65% Probability) IF Gold Breaks Above $4,252: This is the CRITICAL LEVEL to watch! A close above $4,252 signals resumption of the major uptrend. LONG Setup: Entry: Break and close above $4,252 with volume Targets: TP1: $4,313 📍 (+60 pips) TP2: $4,356 📍 (+104 pips) TP3: $4,382 📍 (+130 pips - All-time high retest) Stop Loss: $4,210 (Below consolidation) Risk/Reward: Excellent 1:3+ ratio ✅ SCENARIO 2: HEALTHY PULLBACK 📉 (35% Probability) IF Gold Breaks Below $4,189: A pullback would be healthy and provide better entry opportunities. BUY THE DIP Strategy: Entry Zone 1: $4,157-$4,170 (Best value) Entry Zone 2: $4,114-$4,120 (Strong support) Targets: TP1: $4,200 📍 TP2: $4,243 📍 TP3: $4,280 📍 Stop Loss: Below $4,100 ⚠️ NOTE: Dips are BUYING opportunities in this bullish trend! 💎 BEST TRADE SETUP FOR TODAY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Recommended) 🎯 WAIT for one of these clear setups: Option A - Breakout Trade: Entry: Above $4,252 (confirmed break) Target: $4,313 → $4,356 SL: $4,210 Option B - Pullback Trade: Entry: $4,157-$4,170 (on dip) Target: $4,243 → $4,280 SL: $4,135 DO NOT CHASE at $4,220-$4,240! Wait for clear direction. 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS BULLISH CATALYSTS ⬆️⬆️⬆️ ✅ Fed Rate Cut Odds: 80% - Economists now strongly expect December cut ✅ Government Reopening - But delayed data creates uncertainty = Gold support ✅ Missing Economic Data - October CPI/jobs reports delayed/may never release ✅ Weak Labor Market - 11,000+ weekly job losses continue ✅ Dollar Weakness - DXY struggling at resistance ✅ Central Bank Demand - 634 tonnes purchased YTD, expecting 750-900 total ✅ ETF Inflows - $64 billion added in 2025 ✅ Safe-Haven Demand - Geopolitical tensions persist Risk Factors ⬇️ ⚠️ Overbought Short-Term - RSI 64, near 70 threshold ⚠️ Profit Taking Risk - After 5-day rally (+5.4%) ⚠️ Resistance Zone - $4,235-$4,252 is strong barrier ⚠️ Data Clarity - If delayed data shows strength, could pressure gold 🔥 MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH WITH CAUTION Analyst Consensus: Short-term: Consolidation before next leg (Most likely) Medium-term: Target $4,300-$4,400 Long-term: $4,700-$5,000 by 2026 (UBS/Goldman) This Week: Expected to test $4,252 resistance. Break above = Rally to $4,313+ End of November: Analysts predict $4,230-$4,300 range 💡 PROFESSIONAL GAME PLAN For DAY TRADERS: ⚡ Scalp the Range - Trade between $4,189-$4,235 with tight stops (20-30 pip targets) Buy: $4,190-$4,200 Sell: $4,230-$4,235 Breakout: Above $4,252 → GO LONG aggressively For SWING TRADERS: 📊 Wait for Clarity Either breakout above $4,252 → Hold to $4,356 Or pullback to $4,157 → Buy for retest of $4,252 For LONG-TERM INVESTORS: 💎 Accumulate on Dips Target: $4,150-$4,180 range Goal: Hold for $4,500+ (2026 target) Strategy: Dollar-cost averaging 📅 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK: 🎤 FOMC Speakers - Watch for rate cut signals 📊 Economic Data - Delayed reports may start releasing 🏛️ Government Funding - Impact on market sentiment NEXT WEEK: 📈 November 21 - US Manufacturing & Services PMI 🎬 BOTTOM LINE (TL;DR) Price: $4,189-$4,235 (Consolidating) Bias: 🟢 BULLISH (Pullbacks are buying opportunities) Key Level: $4,252 (Break this = Rally resumes) Best Action: WAIT for breakout above $4,252 OR dip to $4,157 Risk Level: MEDIUM-HIGH (Volatility expected) 🔔 TODAY'S CRITICAL LEVELS DO NOT CHASE between $4,220-$4,240! BUY SIGNALS: ✅ Break above $4,252 with volume → GO LONG ✅ Dip to $4,157-$4,170 → BUY THE DIP SELL SIGNAL: ❌ Break below $4,114 → Exit longs, potential reversal NEUTRAL ZONE: ⚪ Between $4,189-$4,235 → Wait for direction 📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Trend: STRONGLY BULLISH ⬆️ Momentum: STRONG (but cooling) ⚡ Support: SOLID at $4,189-$4,200 🛡️ Resistance: TOUGH at $4,252 🚧 Pattern: Ascending channel with bullish flag forming Next Move: Break $4,252 → Target $4,313-$4,382 ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES ✅ Position Size: Max 2% risk per trade ✅ Stop Loss: ALWAYS required - No exceptions! ✅ Take Profits: Lock 50% at TP1, trail rest ✅ Don't Chase: Wait for your setup patiently ✅ Respect $4,252: This is the make-or-break level 🎯 SWING TRADE SETUP (Multi-Day Hold) Setup A - Breakout Play: Entry: $4,254-$4,260 (after confirmed break) Target 1: $4,313 (Hold 2-3 days) Target 2: $4,356 (Hold 5-7 days) Target 3: $4,382 (Hold 1-2 weeks) Stop Loss: $4,210 Setup B - Pullback Play: Entry: $4,150-$4,170 (if it dips) Target 1: $4,243 (Hold 3-5 days) Target 2: $4,313 (Hold 1 week) Stop Loss: $4,120 🏆 PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY Gold has successfully rallied 5.4% this week and is now consolidating at the $4,200 psychological level. This is textbook healthy behavior after a strong rally. The Setup: Consolidation forms a bull flag pattern Next move determines short-term direction $4,252 is the line in the sand Most Likely Scenario: Brief consolidation (1-2 days) → Break above $4,252 → Rally to $4,313-$4,356 Alternative Scenario: Healthy pullback to $4,157-$4,170 → Strong bounce → Retest $4,252 Either way, the TREND IS UP! 📈 💪 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY TIP After a big rally, markets MUST consolidate. Don't panic if price pulls back slightly. Use dips as OPPORTUNITY, not fear. The trend is your friend - and this trend is BULLISH! 🚀 🎓 LESSON: THE BULL FLAG PATTERN What we're seeing now is a BULL FLAG: ✅ Strong rally (flagpole) - Done ✅ Consolidation (flag) - Happening now ⏳ Breakout (continuation) - Coming soon! Action: Wait for flag breakout above $4,252, then go LONG! 🔮 FORECAST Today: Range between $4,180-$4,240 Tomorrow: Test of $4,252 or pullback to $4,157 This Week: Break $4,252 → Rally to $4,300+ End November: $4,280-$4,350 range December: Potential retest of all-time high $4,382 ⚠️ FINAL DISCLAIMER This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading gold and forex involves substantial risk of loss. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Always use proper risk management including stop losses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📱 Like this analysis? Share it! 💬 Drop your trade setups in comments 🔔 Follow for daily 8:00 AM updates 👍 Hit that like button! #Gold #XAUUSD #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #GoldAnalysis #ForexSignals #DayTrading #SwingTrading #MarketAnalysis #BullFlag #TradingStrategy #GoldForecast
TVC:GOLDLong
by AthensBySahan
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups, for Fri (Nov 14th) Today’s session revealed a marked risk-off sentiment as the market began to discipline leading sectors, notably large-cap tech, AI, semiconductors, and high-beta growth stocks. This correction coincided with a reassessment of expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing and an environment defined by unequal economic data in the wake of the record shutdown. Despite the abrupt decline, the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) remains in a pullback phase within a broader uptrend, still functioning within a weekly premium and supply zone. This movement exhibits characteristics typical of a sharp correction and repositioning rather than the definitive onset of a bear market. Importantly, prices have yet to break below the last significant daily higher-low region, weekly market structure continues to show constructive signs, and the “stress indicators” monitored by institutional investors are elevated but not yet at levels indicative of a crisis. Dashboard Context Volatility: Implied volatility surged today, with equity volatility pushing above previously complacent levels, albeit the term structure remains predominantly upward-sloping rather than inverted. This nuance is critical; while funds are investing more for protection and short-term hedges, the volatility landscape does not yet suggest a disorderly liquidation phase. Options Positioning: The index and overall put/call ratios have transitioned from a state of complacency to caution, reflecting increased demand for hedging. However, levels are not yet extreme enough to signal panic. Skew is elevated, indicating that investors are bidding for downside protection, although it remains within the upper bounds of a normal range. This suggests that while major institutions are leaning into protective strategies and tactical downside plays, the broader market is not universally positioned for a crash. Breadth: The internal damage today was notable, with decliners outpacing advancers significantly across major exchanges. This shift in breadth oscillators from positive to negative in a single session points to a broad-based distribution rather than a narrow selloff concentrated in a few prominent names. Historically, such internal damage requires several sessions for a market to recover. Credit and Funding: High-yield spreads have widened modestly from recent lows, and high-yield ETFs have pulled back from their peaks. Nevertheless, there are no current signs of a credit crisis. Spreads remain well within ranges that do not indicate severe stress, and funding markets continue to operate smoothly. Provided that credit conditions stay stable, current equity weakness is likely more reflective of a valuation and positioning reset than systemic risk. Cross-Asset Risk: The crypto market experienced a sharp selloff, while global equity indices broadly fell. This behavior confirms a classic cross-asset risk-off scenario, as investors reduced exposure to the highest-beta, most speculative areas while simultaneously de-leveraging from U.S. equity leaders. Conversely, traditional defensive stocks and segments of quality value showed relative resilience, a behavior consistent with a managed de-risking rather than an all-encompassing liquidation. In summary, the dashboard indicates a shift from “overbought complacency” to a higher-volatility, risk-off environment. However, we have yet to enter a full-scale, credit-driven bear market. This context is essential for interpreting today’s decline in the E-mini S&P 500. Multi-Timeframe Technical Structure (Weekly → Daily → 4H → 1H) Weekly: The E-mini remains in an upward trajectory, printing higher highs and higher lows. Prices have retreated from a premium zone established at recent highs. The current weekly bar suggests rejection, yet critically, price levels remain comfortably above the last key weekly higher low near the 6,000 mark. Weekly momentum, previously overstretched to the upside, is rolling over, signaling a potential cooling phase – likely a period of consolidation or corrective drift rather than immediate trend failure. Daily: On the daily chart, the ES has formed a distinct upper range beneath a weak high. Today’s trading produced a significant red candle, indicating a drop from the upper range back toward its center. The prior swing low around 6,620–6,580 remains intact, but the daily oscillator shows mild bearish divergence relative to the last high – a common occurrence in maturing upswings. This situation conveys the message of “bullish but extended, now in corrective mode,” rather than a definitive shift to a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. 4-Hour: The 4-hour structure has entered a short-term downtrend. A lower high was established in the 6,900–6,920 range, leading to an impulsive sell-off toward demand around 6,730–6,700. This selloff exhibited characteristics of liquidation: substantial red candles, minimal counter-rotation, and strong volume. The 4-hour oscillator shows bearish pressure but is beginning to flatten near support, consistent with an early basing attempt after a sharp sell-off, though additional downside remains possible if negative overnight flows persist. 1-Hour: The 1-hour chart portrays today’s price movement as a decisive liquidation wave. Today's market decline was driven by three converging factors. First, we saw a mix of valuation adjustments and crowded positioning. Sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and large-cap growth stocks had experienced significant upward momentum. As a result, profit-taking and forced de-leveraging became evident, especially when the largest index components corrected. This simultaneous adjustment made it challenging for the overall index to hold its ground. Second, the narrative surrounding interest rates and policy has shifted. Recent commentary from the Federal Reserve has adopted a more cautious tone regarding the pace and scale of future interest rate cuts. With inflation remaining above target and some data being impacted by the government shutdown, policymakers appear hesitant to endorse the market's most optimistic expectations for easing. This recalibration towards a "higher for longer" mindset is detrimental to long-duration growth equities and affects the valuations assigned to market leaders. Third, while the government shutdown has concluded, the subsequent rhythm of the economic calendar has been disrupted. Several critical data releases have been delayed or are now under scrutiny, prompting investors to navigate through somewhat erratic information. In this context, there has been a notable reluctance to take on risk at elevated valuations without clearer data confirmation. Consequently, we are witnessing a trend of de-risking, characterized by a swift rotation from expensive stocks into cash, defensive positions, and protective strategies. The outcome has been a pronounced selloff, exhibiting broad downside movement and a surge in volatility. Importantly, this occurred without significant turmoil in credit or funding markets, suggesting that we are dealing with a valuation reset rather than a systemic crisis. Looking ahead, the question arises: Is this the beginning of a more substantial downtrend or merely a temporary flush? From a structural perspective, the market has yet to breach the typical thresholds that signal the onset of a major downtrend. The previous daily higher low remains in place, the weekly uptrend is still intact, and we have not observed the combination of lower highs and lower lows that would signify a broader bearish phase. Currently, we are witnessing a rejection from a weekly premium/supply zone, with momentum weakening at both daily and weekly levels. Additionally, there is a clear lower high alongside a liquidation move visible on the four-hour chart, which aligns with the expected behavior during the early stages of a significant correction following an extended rally. As it stands, the prevailing view is that we are experiencing a sharp corrective phase or volatility spike within the upper range of the ongoing uptrend. While the risk of a more profound correction is heightened, particularly if the support range of 6,600 to 6,535 is breached, the current indicators do not yet suggest a completed market top or a fully developed bearish trend. A genuine trend transition would likely require: – a decisive break of S3 and a failed retest from below; – a sustained period of weak breadth rather than a single-day air pocket; – and, on the macro side, a clear deterioration in credit and funding conditions alongside a persistent inversion of the equity volatility term structure. At present, those conditions are not fully in place. Level-KZ Execution Framework for Tomorrow Asia/London Participation: If overnight trade pushes the ES down into the 6,710–6,680 range and subsequently prints a rejection with a definitive 15-minute close above that zone, consider it a tactical bounce location. This could target a move back toward the 6,770–6,800 region. Given the event risk, participation should be smaller than usual and approached as preparatory rather than primary risk. PPI Window (08:30–09:15 ET): The initial 15–30 minutes post-PPI release should be regarded as a discovery phase. If the first impulse upward drives the price into R1/R2 but then closes back below 6,780–6,800 with upper wicks and a failure of the 5-minute structure, it sets up a potential short from the underside of the shelf. Targets for this short could be at 6,720 and then 6,680. Conversely, if the initial market reaction results in a drop to S2/S3 that quickly wicks back and closes above that zone on a 15-minute chart, it presents a tactical bounce long toward the 6,740–6,780 area. The decisive 15-minute close after the data release will provide clarity on which side gains control for the session. NY AM Kill Zone (09:30–11:00 ET): For short positions, the optimal area remains a rejection from 6,780–6,815 after the PPI reaction is digested. A long upper wick and a return close within that range on a 15-minute chart, paired with a failure in the 5-minute attempts to maintain above, supports a short position. Stops should be placed just above the rejection high, with profit targets initially toward 6,720 and subsequently toward 6,680. Conversely, for long opportunities, an ideal scenario involves a constructive reaction from the 6,700–6,660 support band. This would look for a higher low on the 15-minute chart, reclaiming and holding above 6,700, while sellers falter at S1. In this case, stops would belong below the reaction low, targeting 6,770 and 6,810. Standard A-tier protocol applies: anticipate at least 2R to the first target based on a 15-minute-anchored stop, limit attempts per level, and enforce daily risk guardrails. NY PM Window (13:30–16:00 ET): Should the ES remain constrained between 6,700 and 6,800 by early afternoon, the trade dynamic typically shifts from discovery to mean-reversion. Thus, the afternoon should primarily focus on managing existing positions from the morning rather than initiating new aggressive plays. Fresh entries based on trending strategies should only be considered if there is a clear breakout from the established intraday range, whether below S3 or above R3, accompanied by confirmation. Big-Picture Takeaway: Fundamentally, today’s decline indicates a reassessment of overly optimistic growth and AI valuations, along with near-term Federal Reserve easing, partly prompted by a complicated post-shutdown data environment. Technically, the ES is retreating from a weekly premium into various support zones while maintaining the core bullish structure. Stress indicators favored by large professional investors—such as volatility, options positioning, breadth, credit, and cross-asset behavior—suggest a serious risk-off event has occurred, but they don't exhibit the persistent stress and credit strain typically seen before a full bear market materializes. As long as the ES decisively holds above the 6,600–6,535 zone and doesn’t reject that area from below, the higher-probability play in the coming sessions is a volatile corrective range, offering tactical opportunities to sell rallies into resistance and buy deeper, well-defined demand zones—always bearing in mind the heightened volatility and macro event risks on the calendar.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
6
BITCOIN – LEVELS TO WATCHTraders, We dumped. Now we are in a controlled recovery. The question is not only “are we going up” but “where will the market make its real decision.” Right now the chart is giving us two very clean checkpoints. 1. What happened We lost the weekly open and sold off. Spot was selling too, so the dump was real. After the low, spot started buying again and price reclaimed above the big wick. That looks like a failed attempt lower. Markets left a really weak low behind at ~99k. I am convinced we will sweep this low somewhere in the coming weeks. Funding is negative while price is moving up. Shorts are still in the market. This is how squeezes start. 2. First decision zone: 107.300 to 108.000 This area is important because several things come together. 107.300 is a weak high. It stopped at a clean level without strong rejection. That often means liquidity is still sitting above it. The AVWAP anchored from 7 April is there. Price is below it for the first time since that move. When price comes back into an AVWAP from below the market often reacts because old buyers meet new sellers. We also have an LVN just below. That tells us the market did not trade much there before. Price likes to test that kind of gap. So 107k to 108k is our first place to watch the data. If spot keeps pushing and perps do not start selling we can break it. If CVD stalls there it can be a take profit zone. 3. Accumulation and Distribution On both the 1 hour and 4 hour spot charts the Accumulation/Distribution line tells an important story. Price made a clear new low after the dump. The A/D line did not make a new low. It actually started to turn up. That is what traders call a bullish divergence. Price is still falling but the money flow is already improving. In simple words. While candles were going down someone was quietly buying. That means the bounce we see now is not just short covering or a random spike. It was prepared by real spot demand. Futures can show a similar thing but spot is the cleaner signal because it is not influenced by funding, leverage or hedges. When real buyers step in while shorts are still in the market it often creates the right conditions for a squeeze. 4. OBV check On the 4h OBV you can see it popping up from the base after the dump. OBV going up while price is moving up means volume is supporting the move. This agrees with the spot A/D story. It is better when price and OBV move together than when price moves alone. 5. Scenario 1 Price pushes into 107k to 108k. That sweep takes the weak high and tags the AVWAP. If at that point spot CVD slows down or perps start to sell we can reject. A rejection there can send price back into the mid zone and even lower towards 101k to 102k and in extension back to the HTF LVN near 98k. This is the simple “first resistance holds” idea. 6. Scenario 2 This is the one I am leaning toward. Price breaks and holds above 108k. Shorts do not get their reaction. Spot keeps supporting and funding stays negative to flat. Then the market has room to go for the next real liquidity pool which is 117k to 118k. 7. Why 117k to 118k matters On the liquidity heatmap there is clear resting liquidity higher up. Price often travels to those areas because that is where orders are. The golden pocket of the previous move sits in this same zone. Many traders watch this fib area so reactions there are common. Several AVWAP bands from earlier dates are meeting around 117k to 118k. When AVWAPs from different anchors cluster together it creates a stronger level because different groups of traders all care about that price. Between the current price and that zone there are imbalances and LVNs. That means the market moved quickly there before and did not build volume. These thin areas often get filled on the next push. 8. How to read it in real time Above 108k and spot CVD still rising means squeeze is on. Above 108k and funding still negative means shorts are paying to stay wrong. Lose 108k again after a sweep and see CVD roll over means scenario 1 is playing. Price can just dump down without getting more liquidity. But looking unlikely based on the data right now. So if Bitcoin can break and hold above 108k there is not much in the way until 117k to 118k. Final view We dumped on real flow. We are recovering with spot support. We have a clear first test at 107k to 108k. Break and hold and the magnet becomes 117k to 118k because of liquidity, golden pocket, AVWAP confluence and imbalance. TLDR; Bitcoin sold off hard, but the data says the low was bought. Spot A/D started rising while price was still making new lows, funding turned negative and price reclaimed above the wick, which tells us real buyers stepped in while shorts stayed in their positions. Now price is climbing back toward 107k to 108k where a weak high and the April AVWAP are waiting, so that is the first place the market can decide if this recovery is just a bounce or the start of a squeeze. If buyers keep showing up there and we push through, the path above is thin and the next real pocket of liquidity, AVWAP confluence, imbalance and even the golden pocket of the earlier move all sit together around 117k to 118k. That is why this recovery matters. It is not just candles going up. It is positioning, spot flow and liquidity all lining up. If you enjoy this type of analysis or find it helpful, leave a like or drop a comment. I don’t ask for anything in return — I share this to help traders understand what’s really happening behind the charts. It also helps me see if people actually read and value these breakdowns, so if it helped you, let me know below.
by ThetaNomad
37
$BTC bounce. What is happening?On the Macro Side: Metaplanet was on the verge of bankruptcy — their stock dropped from $1,900 to $415 in just five months. Their average Bitcoin buy price sits around $104K, and they had to take on more loans to buy even more BTC, in an attempt to lift the price and save their position. Michael Saylor and NASDAQ:MSTR are in a similar situation. MicroStrategy’s stock has fallen from $460 to $236, with an average Bitcoin purchase price around $66K. This puts huge pressure on these institutional treasuries — they cannot afford a bear market. They’re forced to keep buying Bitcoin to prevent a BTC dominance collapse ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) and hold market confidence. In the last two days, altcoins ( CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS ) have been outperforming Bitcoin, signaling a possible rotation from BTC to alts. That alone was enough for these mega whales to ignite a quick pump before the weekend, trapping retail traders and preventing massive ETF sell pressure from retail-driven redemptions. On the Chart: Bitcoin is oversold on both RSI and MACD across multiple timeframes. This aligns perfectly with the whales’ attempts to spark a rebound — and may support a short-term bounce lasting 5–7 days. However, don’t be fooled — this looks more like a desperate defense pump than a true trend reversal. The weekly trend remains bearish until at least Q2 2026, and we’ll likely see more bounces and dips along the way. A new all-time high seems unlikely in this macro environment, with a maximum target around 108K before another correction. Stay cautious. Don’t FOMO into this move — it’s engineered to protect treasury positions, not to start a new bull run. Things will truly turn bullish only when Powell is replaced, QE restarts, or a major macro catalyst (like a government resolution) happens. DYOR. Stay smart. Don’t chase hype. #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTC #Altcoins #CryptoNews #CryptoAnalysis #Macro #Whales #MarketUpdate #BTCUSD #AltcoinSeason #Investing #Trading #CryptoTrends #MSTR #Metaplanet #CryptoCrash #CryptoStrategy #DYOR
by CryptoNikkoid
10
EURUSD Long: Bullish Momentum Targets $1.1610 Supply ZoneHello traders! EURUSD is currently showing signs of sustained bullish momentum after rebounding from the key 1.1550 Demand Zone, which has previously acted as a strong support area. Earlier, the pair formed a Double Bottom pattern, indicating exhaustion of selling pressure and the beginning of accumulation. This bullish structure was later confirmed by a breakout above neckline resistance, suggesting a potential reversal in trend. Following a series of breakouts and a fake breakout, EURUSD established an Ascending Channel, showing consistent higher highs and higher lows — a clear signal of an emerging bullish trend. The recent pivot point around 1.1540 served as a solid foundation for price recovery, where buyers regained control. Currently, EURUSD is heading toward the 1.1610 Supply Zone, which coincides with a previous reaction level and marks the next key resistance to watch. A confirmed breakout and close above 1.1610 could open the path for further movement toward the 1.1660–1.1680 region, extending the bullish structure. I expect, as long as price holds above 1.1550, the bullish scenario remains intact. However, a decisive breakdown below this support zone could invalidate the upward momentum and trigger a deeper retracement toward the previous demand levels. Manage your risk!
Long
by heniitrading
5
XAUUSD Short: Rejection From Supply Targets $4,070 Demand LineHello traders! Gold (XAUUSD) is showing signs of a potential corrective move after a strong bullish rally from the $3,950–$3,970 Demand Zone, where multiple fake breakouts confirmed the presence of strong buyers. This area coincides with the ascending Demand Line, which has provided consistent support for price growth. Each touch on this line has led to notable bullish impulses, signaling accumulation and strengthening buyer momentum. Currently, the price approached the $4,140–$4,160 Supply Zone, which aligns with both a Supply Line and the neckline of a previous Double Top pattern. This confluence area represents a critical resistance zone where sellers have historically regained control. The current rejection from this level suggests that a short-term pullback could be underway as the market seeks to retest lower support. I expect the first key area to watch is the $4,070 pivot level, which aligns with the Demand Line. This zone is expected to act as dynamic support for a potential rebound. If price holds above this level, the bullish structure remains valid, with a possible retest of the $4,150–$4,160 Supply Zone. However, a confirmed break below $4,070 could trigger a deeper correction toward the $3,950 Demand Zone, where fresh buying opportunities may emerge. Manage your risk!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by heniitrading
11
EURUSD: Descending Channel Breakout Targets 1.1630 ResistanceHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup. Market Analysis EURUSD is showing early signs of a potential bullish reversal after a prolonged downtrend within a descending channel. The pair found strong buying interest near the 1.15300–1.15400 Support Zone, an area that previously acted as a key pivot level where price frequently rebounded. This zone aligns with the ascending Support Line, forming a solid confluence for a possible trend reversal setup. After several tests of the lower boundary, EURUSD successfully broke above the descending channel, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Price is now consolidating above the broken resistance line, showing accumulation and confirming buyer strength. The pair is approaching the 1.16100–1.16300 Resistance Area, which has acted as a major supply zone and a decision point for further upside continuation. Currently, as long as the price holds above 1.15300 support, the bullish outlook remains valid. A successful breakout and sustained move above 1.16300 could confirm a structural reversal, opening the door for further growth toward 1.17000 in the medium term. Conversely, a bearish rejection from resistance may trigger a short-term pullback toward the Support Line before another attempt higher. My Scenario & Strategy From my perspective, as long as EURUSD trades above 1.15300, I remain bullish-biased. My near-term target (TP1) is set around the 1.16100–1.16300 zone, with a potential extension toward 1.17000 if momentum continues. I will be looking for pullback-based long entries near support or retests of the breakout level. However, if EURUSD breaks back below 1.15300, this would invalidate the bullish scenario and suggest a continuation of the broader downtrend. For now, structure and price action support a bullish correction setup toward resistance. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
20
BTCUSD Bulls Aim Higher: Buyers Eye Breakout Toward $107,500Hello traders! Let’s take a look at the current BTCUSD structure. After an extended corrective phase within a descending movement, the market found solid support near the $100,000–$100,200 Buyer Zone, which aligns with both the horizontal Support Level and the lower boundary of the broader structure. This zone has repeatedly triggered strong buying reactions in the past, confirming it as a key demand area. Recently, Bitcoin began forming a bullish correction channel, where price has been developing higher highs and higher lows, suggesting early signs of trend recovery. Within this structure, buyers successfully defended the Buyer Zone, followed by a steady rise toward the $107,000–$107,500 Resistance Level — a zone that previously acted as a Seller Zone during prior rejections. At the moment, BTCUSD is consolidating inside this ascending channel, trading slightly below resistance. The market may attempt another push toward TP1 at $107,500, which aligns with the upper resistance line and marks a potential short-term target. If price manages a confirmed breakout above this level, we could see further continuation toward the next resistance around $111,000. However, if the price faces rejection at the current resistance, a temporary pullback toward the Support Line or Buyer Zone ($100,200–$101,000) could occur before the next wave of growth. The structure remains bullish as long as Bitcoin stays above the ascending Support Line. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by LegionQ8
34
GBP/USD – Head & Shoulders Pattern (13.11.2025)🧠 Setup Overview FX:GBPUSD GBP/USD is forming a Head & Shoulders pattern on the 1H chart — a classical bullish reversal structure after a prolonged downtrend. Price is currently holding above the right-shoulder support zone, showing early signs of accumulation. A breakout above the neckline would confirm bullish momentum toward the next resistance targets. 📊 Trading Plan✅ Bullish Scenario If confirmed → Expect bullish continuation toward: 🟢 1st Resistance: 1.3287 🟢 2nd Resistance: 1.3360 ⚡ Fundamental Updates 1️⃣ U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly as consumer confidence declined. 2️⃣ Markets now price a 66% chance of a rate cut in December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. 3️⃣ U.S. government shutdown concerns keep the dollar under mild pressure as investors watch debt issuance risk. 💬 Summary A clear trendline rejection combined with fundamental USD weakness supports a short bias. Wait for confirmation before entering — patience protects capital. #GBP/USD #ForexAnalysis #TradingView #PriceAction #Trendline #Ichimoku #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrader #Fundamentals #SwingTrading #KABHI_TA_TRADING ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk wisely. 📢 Support My Work 💚 Like, Comment & Share this idea to motivate more chart updates! 🧠 “Charts Don’t Lie, Traders Don’t Quit.”
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
40
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 13, 2025 EURUSDThe euro/dollar pair is holding below 1.16000, as markets digest US news, Federal Reserve communications, and the European Central Bank’s decision to keep policy settings unchanged. Reduced uncertainty around the US budget and the imminent return of key data releases help the dollar keep the upper hand. Against this backdrop, the yield differential remains in favor of the US, which limits EUR/USD’s upside in the absence of fresh positive signals from the euro area. From a fundamental perspective, the euro is constrained by soft industrial indicators and weaker external demand, while the US resumes the flow of macro reports that can confirm resilient domestic demand. Investors are cautious ahead of fresh inflation data and policy signals, preferring currencies with steadier income profiles, which supports the dollar. Industry commentary highlights consolidation below 1.16000 and sensitivity to incoming US headlines. Given the balance of risks and the current fundamental setup, the base case assumes a gradual drift lower toward 1.15350, with limited potential for corrective rebounds. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.15850, SL 1.16250, TP 1.15350
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold 30 m – Gatekeeper Zone: Momentum or Pullback1. Fundamental Overview Gold (XAU/USD) finds support amid safe-haven demand and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which eases the opportunity cost of holding gold. The relaxing risk-sentiment (e.g., government funding issues, geopolitical risks) is adding to underlying buying pressure. On the flip side: A stronger U.S. dollar and improved risk appetite may cap upside in the near term. Fundamental bias summary: Neutral-to-bullish. The backdrop remains supportive, but momentum needs to catch up. 2. Technical Analysis (30 Minute Frame) Price recently approached the USD 4,150-4,155 zone but showed signs of hesitation. Key levels to watch: Resistance zone: ~ USD 4,150-4,200. A clear break and close above here on 30m would signal momentum. Support zone: ~ USD 4,050-4,000. A break below this region risks a pullback. Technical indicators: The RSI remains above mid-line, suggesting room for upside—but momentum is not yet decisive. Technical bias summary: Slight bullish tilt only if a breakout above ~4,150 occurs. Otherwise, risk of consolidation or pullback increases. 3. Trade Plan & Key Levels 📌 Bullish Scenario: Entry: Go long if price closes on a 30-minute candle above ~USD 4,150 and retests it. Stop-Loss: Around USD 4,000, below key support. Targets: TP1: ~USD 4,250 TP2: ~USD 4,350 (if breakout is strong) 📌 Bearish Scenario: Entry: Consider short if price rejects the 4,150-4,200 zone and breaks below USD 4,050-4,000 on 30-min chart. Stop-Loss: Around USD 4,170. Targets: TP1: ~USD 3,900 TP2: ~USD 3,800 📌 Wait Mode: If price remains trapped between ~4,050 and ~4,150 without clear trigger → hold off and wait for clarity. 4. My View for Today I am leaning conditional bullish: the fundamentals support gold, but the trigger will be a technical breakout above ~USD 4,150. If that happens, upside momentum could run toward ~4,250+ levels. If no breakout, the more likely scenario is sideways action or a pullback toward ~USD 4,000-3,900. I will not chase until a clear 30-minute confirmation emerges.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AthensBySahan
BTCUSD Long: Breakout From Descending Channel Targets $108KHello traders! Bitcoin is showing a potential continuation of bullish momentum after breaking out of the descending channel, where sellers had previously maintained control over the market structure. During the prolonged downtrend, the price consistently made lower highs and lower lows, until forming a strong Pivot Point near the $100,500–$101,000 Demand Zone — an area that has historically triggered solid bullish reactions. Currently, after a fake breakout below this demand zone, the price quickly recovered, signaling liquidity sweeps and seller exhaustion. Since then, BTCUSD has rebounded strongly, confirming a structural shift from bearish to bullish control. The pair has now broken above the channel resistance, establishing a short-term bullish bias supported by steady higher lows. At the moment, Bitcoin is approaching the $107,500–$108,000 Supply Zone, which coincides with previous market consolidation and marks a potential reaction area where sellers might temporarily slow down the move. A clean breakout and close above $108,000 would open the door for a further rally toward the $111,000 Supply 2 Zone, reinforcing the medium-term bullish structure. I expect the $104,500–$105,000 area to act as immediate support and a key retest level, allowing buyers to maintain momentum and target $108,000. Holding above this zone maintains the bullish scenario, while a confirmed break below it could trigger a pullback to the previous demand level before a new rally develops. Manage your risk!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by heniitrading
5
EURUSD Retests Buyer Zone — Bullish Momentum Aiming for 1.1600Hello traders! I’d like to share my view on EURUSD. After an extended bearish trend inside a descending channel, the pair finally found strong buying interest around the 1.15300–1.15400 Buyer Zone, where price reacted multiple times in the past. This area aligns with both the horizontal Support Level and the ascending Support Line, which together form a solid base for potential bullish continuation. Recently, EURUSD broke above the descending resistance line, confirming a possible short-term trend reversal. The price is now retesting the breakout area, showing signs of accumulation above support. As long as price remains above 1.15300, the bullish structure stays valid. The immediate upside target (TP1) is seen around the 1.16000–1.16100 zone, which coincides with the previous consolidation and minor resistance area. A breakout and confirmed close above this zone could open the way toward the 1.16600 Resistance Level. However, a clear bearish rejection pattern near 1.16000–1.16100 might lead to another corrective pullback back into the Buyer Zone before further continuation. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
28
Market Outlook | GU, UJ & Gold Analysis | Nov 10–14In this video, we unpack how structure, sentiment, and events shaped last week’s price action across GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and XAU/USD (Gold) and what these clues reveal about where the market might head next. The video highlights how the market reacted to the quiet U.S. week caused by the government shutdown, and how traders positioned themselves ahead of the major data coming up, from UK employment and GDP figures to U.S. CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. You’ll Learn: ✅Why each market moved the way it did last week in simple, clear terms. ✅How I connect fundamental sentiment with real chart structures. ✅Key price zones and levels I am watching in the coming trading week. ✅How I anticipate reactions to upcoming economic data. Stay till the end for my outlook and mindset tip, and check the comment section throughout the week for real-time updates as I monitor price action. Timestamps: 00:01 – Welcome & overview 01:35 – GBP/USD breakdown 06:55 – USD/JPY analysis 11:05 – XAU/USD (Gold) insights 14:05 – Closing outlook & mindset ⚠️ This isn’t a signal service; it’s my personal trading map, shared to help you think and trade smarter.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 12, 2025 USDJPYThe yen remains under pressure: the policy stance between the U.S. and Japan continues to diverge, and the Bank of Japan is still acting gradually and avoiding sharp steps so as not to choke off the economic recovery. In this environment, any rebound in global risk appetite quickly leads to yen weakness and a rise in USDJPY. The price environment for energy also matters: elevated energy import bills traditionally worsen the trade balance and support demand for the dollar against the yen. In the U.S., Treasury yields have stabilized without signs of a major decline, which supports the dollar’s premium over the yen. The market is closely watching U.S. inflation and consumer activity data: the lack of a sharp slowdown in these series creates conditions for dollar-denominated assets to remain attractive to global investors, especially compared with Japanese instruments. Risks of verbal signals from Japanese authorities and episodic “pauses” in the pair’s ascent remain, but without a change in the Bank of Japan’s approach to rates and yield control, a sustained downward reversal in USDJPY is not in sight. With a moderate news backdrop, the underlying balance of factors still favors the dollar. Trading recommendation: BUY 154.350, SL 153.500, TP 155.500
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004