Price is currently ranging within the narrow 3,740 – 3,755 suppo1. Current Price Structure
Gold has formed a strong bullish wave (rallying from the 3,680 zone to nearly 3,790).
Afterwards, a sharp decline occurred → creating a new high but quickly rejected.
At present, the price is consolidating sideways within a narrow support–resistance zone around 3,740 – 3,755.
2. Key Support – Resistance Levels
Near-term resistance: 3,755 – 3,760 (recent minor high).
Near-term support: 3,735 – 3,740 (area repeatedly tested).
Stronger support: 3,695 – 3,705 (potential retracement target with liquidity and previous accumulation zone).
3. Price Scenarios
Scenario 1 (primary): Price breaks below the current support → drops to retest the 3,695 – 3,705 zone → then bounces back up. This is a potential “demand zone” where buyers may return.
Scenario 2 (less likely): Price holds the 3,740 support and rallies immediately → however, current buying pressure seems insufficient to sustain this move.
4. Trading Implications
The 3,695 – 3,705 zone is a potential buy area if bullish reversal candlestick patterns appear.
If price clearly breaks below 3,695, the short-term trend could turn bearish with a target toward 3,660.
In the short term, the market is still in a corrective phase after the previous bullish rally → not ideal to “chase buys” around 3,740.
👉 In summary: The chart suggests the price is more likely to dip toward the 3,700 demand zone before bouncing back up. The 3,740 zone is only a temporary buffer, not strong enough for a major reversal.
Analysis
ES Futures (SPX) - Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups - Thu, Sep 26News & catalysts (ET)
8:30 — PCE & Core PCE (Aug) , the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Market focus is on Core PCE ~2.9% YoY and ~0.2% MoM consensus.
10:00 — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final Sep) . Scheduled time confirmed by
Fed speakers: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman in a 10:00 discussion;
Fed Board’s Beth Anne Wilson remarks at 8:45 at a New York Fed conference.
Earnings/overnight tone: Costco (COST) reported FY Q4 results Thu after close; headlines can sway retail/consumer sentiment pre-open. Nike (NKE) is due Tue 9/30 after close (next week).
Bias:
Base case: Two-way trade into 8:30, directional break afterward.
If Core PCE ≤ 0.2% MoM or ≤ 2.8% YoY: risk-on; favor upside continuation through near-term supply toward 6700+.
If Core PCE ≥ 0.3% MoM or ≥ 3.0% YoY: risk-off; favor sell-the-rips into 6630 → 6605 ladder.
Secondary input 10:00: Michigan Sentiment can add a second impulse; weak sentiment keeps rallies fragile.
PA roadmap
Overnight: Expect balance inside 6655–6675 until 8:30. Liquidity likely pools above 6675 and below 6650 for the data sweep.
NY AM (09:30–11:00): Trade the post-8:30 acceptance: continuation if 15m structure accepts beyond a zone; fade if we get swift rejection back inside.
NY PM (13:30–16:00): Look for consolidation breaks toward untested AM extremes; avoid initiating inside mid-range chop.
Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
A++ Acceptance Long (major)
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6670–6675, followed by 5m pullback that re-closes above.
Entry: 1m HL after the 5m re-close.
SL: Below the 15m trigger wick −0.25–0.50 pts.
TPs: TP1 6705, TP2 6725, TP3 6760–6765.
Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits.
Invalidation: 15m body back inside 6670 (acceptance lost).
A++ Acceptance Short (major)
Trigger: 15m full-body close below 6655, then 5m pullback that fails and re-closes below.
Entry: 1m LH after the 5m re-close.
SL: Above the 15m trigger wick +0.25–0.50 pts.
TPs: TP1 6631–6635, TP2 6605–6608, TP3 6580–6585.
Management: Same as above.
Invalidation: 15m body back above 6658.
CHFJPY: Trend ContinuationI see another trend continuation opportunity over on the CHFJPY pair. One thing to note is that rollover is in a few hours so consider exiting and re-entering this position to avoid getting stopped out.
Daily Timeframe:
Price crossed above HTL and the fakeout was invalidated quickly as price crossed back above HTL
H1 Timeframe:
I see quite a bit of confluence here with the following signals observed in the subsequent bullets
Price is moving out of EMA band again
Price crossed above DTL so that signals a likely end to the intraday counter-trend move
EMA20 remains above EMA60 to show overall uptrend confluence with the daily timeframe
EURUSD Fundamental Outlook🚨 Current Mood:
- Powell’s cautious Fed stance = USD support 🦅
- Germany’s Ifo dropped again = EUR weakness 🇩🇪
- ECB not hawkish enough, still open for cuts = neutral / soft EUR 🏦
📊 Positioning:
- CFTC shows crowded EUR longs → risk of squeeze ⚠️
- Retail traders still buying dips → contrarian bearish 🚫
🔑 What to Expect
- Bullish drivers: 🔼 Strong EU PMIs, upbeat ECB tone, weak U.S. jobs/inflation.
- Bearish drivers: 🔽 More weak EU data, ECB easing hints, hawkish Fed lines.
🎯 Sentiment Snapshot
👉 Macro tone: Bearish tilt for EURUSD
👉 Pros: already long, risk for downside flush
👉 Retail: net long (contrarian bearish)
📌 Conclusion:
Right now, EURUSD is tilted bearish unless Euro data surprises to the upside. Keep eyes on EZ PMIs & U.S. data prints. Sellers may have the edge in the short run. ⚡
USD/JPY - 4H forecast (sell side Imbalance to fill)🔥 USD/JPY – 4H Forecast 💵💴
Dollar-Yen just pulled a slick liquidity grab and is loading for another leg higher. Let’s map it out 👇
🕰 Market Context
Price cleaned up the 8H demand and launched with a monster impulse 🚀.
Structure flipped bullish with a strong Break of Structure (BOS).
We’re consolidating right under buy-side liquidity (BSL), teasing the breakout.
📈 Bullish Flow
4H Imbalance (IMB) has been filled → confirms buyers are still strong.
71% retrace + strong support zone aligning at 147.8–148.0 → golden buy zone 🎯.
Swing range shows room for expansion into new highs above 149.5–150.0.
⚡ Key Levels
Support / Buy Zone:
148.0 → ideal retrace entry
147.5 (deep discount if we sweep liquidity)
Resistance / Targets:
149.2–149.5 (first stop)
150.0+ (big figure liquidity magnet)
🎯 Forecast Path
Expect a dip into 148.0 zone for liquidity grab 🔄.
From there → bullish continuation into 149.5–150.0 🚀.
If 147.5 cracks → deeper retrace into 146.8 swing low support.
📝 Trade Idea
Bias: Bullish (structure flip + demand respected).
Plan : Longs on 148.0 retest.
Targets : 149.5 → 150.0.
Invalidation : 4H close below 146.8 kills the long bias.
📌 Summary : USD/JPY just reloaded off demand and is primed for a push into 150. Dips into 148.0 are gifts for buyers, unless 146.8 breaks.
Gold (XAUUSD) – Technical Outlook
🔴Bearish Scenario (Downtrend)
*Pivot Level: 3759
* If price trades below 3759, downside momentum may develop.
* 🎯 First target: 3736 (key support)
* If 3736 breaks strongly → continuation lower.
* 🎯 Second target: 3700
🟢Bullish Scenario (Uptrend)
* If price holds above 3759, upside momentum is likely.
* 🎯 First target: 3791 (previous major high)
* If 3791 breaks with strength → full bullish continuation.
* 🎯 Next upside targets: 3810 → 3830
GBP/JPY - NO CONFIRMATION! (Possible failed resistance break)🔥 GBP/JPY – 4H Forecast 💷💴
This pair is dancing inside some serious supply, and sellers are warming up. Let’s break it down 👇
🕰 Market Context
Price tagged into a weekly supply zone and instantly reacted. Sellers defended heavy.
Liquidity sweep above the highs (BSL) → classic stop grab before turning south. ⚡
Daily zone + 8H imbalance already filled, giving sellers control.
📉 Bearish Flow
Market structure flipped bearish with a lower high (LPL) being printed.
1H zone is aligning with 4H supply = confluence for shorts.
Buyer attempts are fading; sell-side pressure is loading for a move into deeper demand.
⚡ Key Zones
Resistance / Supply:
200.40–200.80 (daily/4H supply pocket)
201.20 extreme high liquidity sweep
Support / Demand:
199.00 (short-term intraday demand)
197.80–198.20 = main target demand zone 🎯
🎯 Forecast Path
Expect a possible tiny push back into 200.0–200.4 zone for liquidity grab 📈.
From there → sellers should kick in → drive down toward 198.0 demand. 🕳
Break below 197.8 opens door to 195.5–196.0 macro support.
📝 Trade Idea
Bias: Bearish (supply reaction + liquidity grab confirmed).
Plan : Short from 200.0–200.4 retest.
Targets : 199.0 → 198.0 → extended 196.0.
Invalidation : Clean 4H close above 201.2 kills the short bias.
📌 Summary : GBP/JPY just faked out above highs into weekly supply and is now setting up for a deeper sell-off. Smart money is eyeing the 198.0 demand zone — shorts are the play until 201.2 breaks.
Gold - Wave 2 of 5 (1H Forecast)🚀 Gold 1H Forecast – Wave 5 Loading? 🥇✨
Alright traders, let’s decode this chart 👇
🔭 Bigger Picture
We’re cruising inside a clean ascending channel 📈.
Wave count shows we’re gearing up for the final push (Wave 5) after a solid corrective move.
Price just bounced off that 3,711–3,720 support pocket like a trampoline 🏀.
📉 The Pullback
The corrective ABC move (a–b–c) tapped into demand perfectly.
Liquidity trend got cleaned up — stops swept, weak hands shaken 😮💨.
That bounce birthed sub-wave (i), with (ii) retracing right into support (chef’s kiss setup 👌).
🚀 The Next Impulse
Expectation:
(iii) blast up into the 3,850s zone 💥
Shallow (iv) pullback (quick snack stop 🍔)
Then a final (v) rocket toward the 3,870–3,880 resistance 🎯.
⚡ Key Levels
Support : 3,711 → hold this = liftoff.
Resistance : 3,857–3,870 supply wall = Wave 5 target.
If support cracks, deeper discount levels below 3,677 open up. 🕳
🎯 Play Idea
Bias = Bullish (Wave 5 still in play).
Look for entries on pullbacks above 3,711 support.
Eye profit taking near 3,857–3,870 zone.
📌 Summary: Gold just reloaded at demand, structure screams Wave 5, and momentum’s cooking. Don’t chase green candles — let it dip, then ride the impulse 🚀.
MARKET CONTEXT I SEP/25/2025SHOULD BE BUY OR SELL TODAY ?
- After forming a top around 3786–3790 (H1 VaH zone), gold has pulled back and is now consolidating in the 3735–3740 range.
- The main structure still maintains Higher Lows – Higher Highs on H1 and H4, confirming the medium-term uptrend remains intact.
- However, the current price is sitting right at the H4 Trendline + Liquidity zone 3737–3739, a sensitive area: either a bounce higher or a breakdown for a deeper test.
🟢 Scenario 1 – BUY at 3737–3739 (Liquidity zone + H4 Trendline)
Entry Conditions:
Reversal candles (Pin Bar/Engulfing) appear on M15–H1.
Price bounces immediately upon testing H4 trendline + liquidity zone.
Reason:
Key confluence zone: uptrendline + liquidity.
Market still in Higher Low – Higher High structure → bias remains bullish.
🎯 Entry: 3737–3739
🛑 SL: below 3724
✅ TP1: 3752
✅ TP2: 3778–3786
🟡 Scenario 2 – BUY on deeper correction at 3724–3717 (Key H1+H4 Support)
Entry Conditions:
Price hits 3724–3717 with absorption signals (declining volume on pullback).
Bullish confirmation candles (Engulfing/Fakey).
Reason:
Major support zone on both H1 and H4.
Pullback here could form another Higher Low for trend continuation.
🎯 Entry: 3724–3717
🛑 SL: below 3705
✅ TP1: 3752
✅ TP2: 3780+
🔴 Scenario 3 – Short-term SELL at 3780–3786 (VaH zone + Supply zone)
Entry Conditions:
Clear rejection (Pin Bar / Bearish Engulfing) on H1.
Weak breakout volume, no strength to push higher.
Rationale:
Strong resistance zone (VaH + old supply) with multiple reactions.
Suitable for quick SELL if buyer trap signs appear.
🎯 Entry: 3780–3786
🛑 SL: above 3795
✅ TP1: 3760
✅ TP2: 3740
⚡️ Scenario 4 – BUY breakout if price clears 3786
Entry Conditions:
Strong H1 close above 3786 with solid volume.
Successful retest of 3786, holding above.
Reason:
Breakout of VaH confirms a new bullish wave.
Opens the door toward 3800+.
🎯 Entry: 3786+ after retest
🛑 SL: below 3772
✅ TP1: 3804
✅ TP2: 3815–3820
📌 Strategy Summary
Priority: BUY at supports (3737–3739 or 3724–3717) if confirmation signals appear.
SELL: Only consider if strong rejection shows up at 3780–3786 resistance.
Breakout Plan: If price holds above 3786 → switch bias to BUY breakout.
Manage risk strictly, avoid FOMO as liquidity sweeps may occur before direction is chosen.
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 25, 2025 GBPUSDSterling remains under pressure around 1.34–1.35 following the Fed Chair’s emphasis on data dependence, which strengthened the dollar and tempered expectations for the pace of U.S. policy easing. For the pound this implies a less favorable yield differential in the near term and reduced currency appeal.
Domestically, recent U.K. business activity data pointed to weakness in both manufacturing and services. Against this backdrop, the Bank of England remains cautious and markets are revising the rate path, which also limits upside for the pound. Budget considerations and debates around public finances add to the risk premium on U.K. assets.
External factors — expectations around U.S. PCE and developments in global tariffs — amplify dollar fluctuations and, by extension, volatility in GBPUSD. As long as U.K. data do not show sustained improvement while U.S. indicators underpin the dollar, risks remain tilted to the downside for the pair.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.34500, SL 1.35150, TP 1.34000
AMD reversal pattern and long-term growth potentialOn the AMD chart price holds the key support around 149–150 forming a base for continuation of the bullish trend. Above the consolidation zone at 160 targets open at 183, 217 and 259. In the longer-term perspective the structure points toward 326 and even higher as the trend remains bullish. Should a correction occur the 129 zone acts as major support to preserve the upward structure.
AMD keeps strengthening its market share in processors and GPUs, expanding rapidly in the server and AI segments. Strong demand for company products and its growing role in the AI ecosystem continue to attract institutional investors. Looking ahead to 2026, some analysts expect the stock to potentially reach levels around 900 per share.
Both the technical setup and fundamentals support further upside with near-term targets at 183, 217 and 259 while in the long-term a scenario above 300 and potentially up to 900 stays in focus for strategic investors. Risk-to-reward conditions provide a strong basis for holding existing positions and considering new entries. Additionally, investors may also look at opportunities through the AMD-linked ETF (AMDL).
ES-mini Futures - (SPX) Analyses for Sep 25Market drivers for Thu, Sep 25 (ET)
• 8:30 — GDP 2Q (Third estimate) + Corporate Profits (annual update). Official BEA release.
• 8:30 — Durable Goods (Advance, Aug). Census M3 advance report (release time 8:30 a.m. ET).
• 8:30 — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). DoL weekly claims (standard Thu 8:30 a.m. ET cadence).
• 10:00 — Existing-Home Sales (Aug). National Association of Realtors, scheduled for Thu 10:00 a.m. ET.
• Fed speakers — Vice Chair Bowman: 9:00 a.m. (Economic Outlook) and 1:00 p.m. (Approach to Monetary Policy).
• Treasury — Multiple bill auctions scheduled for Sep 25 (4-, 6-, 13-, 26-, 52-week). Watch rate/curve reaction around midday.
• (Context) Atlanta Fed GDPNow next update Fri, Sep 26 (used by markets for GDP tracking).
Risk windows to respect: 8:30 (data cluster) and 10:00 (housing). Avoid fresh entries ~5m before/after these prints; expect liquidity gaps.
Overall bias & PA projection (overnight → tomorrow)
Structure: Uptrend on higher timeframes, but near a weekly/4H supply cap ~6,76x–6,78x with a fresh H1 pullback printed.
Bias into NY: Balanced-to-slightly-bullish if 6,67x holds. Below that, rotation toward the extension cluster 6,66x–6,64x likely before buyers try again.
Overnight projection: Asia/London likely to range 6,68x–6,70x. A London stop-run under 6,678 that quickly reclaims sets the stage for NY bounce. Acceptance below 6,672 opens 6,659 → 6,640 → 6,619.
NY session — A++ setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
Management rules (as usual): TP1 = next opposing MAJOR level; close 70% at TP1, leave 30% runner → TP2/TP3; hard SL = 15m trigger wick ±0.25–0.50pt; time-stop 45–60m; max 2 attempts per level.
ES SHORT (A++) — Rejection Fade at 6,735–6,750
Trigger: 15m rejection close back inside the zone → 5m re-close down with LH → 1m pullback fail to enter.
Entry: 6,740 ±2 (within zone after the 1m pullback).
SL: Above the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,768.
• TP1: 6,700 pivot.
• TP2: 6,678–6,672 shelf.
• TP3: 6,659–6,640 ext cluster.
Invalidation / maintenance: Two whipsaws or a 15m body-through ≥1.0pt above 6,768 → demote/stand down; acceptance >6,768 flips bias to longs toward 6,78x.
ES LONG (A++) — Acceptance-Continuation from 6,658–6,642
Context: High-prob “flush & reclaim” at the extension cluster before/after 8:30 data.
Trigger: 15m full-body close back above 6,652, 5m HL + re-close up, 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,650 ±3 after reclaim.
SL: Below the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,637.
• TP1: 6,700 pivot.
• TP2: 6,724–6,735 supply.
• TP3: 6,760–6,770 (weekly cap).
Notes: If the 8:30 print gaps price through TP1 immediately, manage fills but still honor runner plan; no trailing before TP2 per protocol.
==========
London session game plan (02:00–05:00 ET)
Base case: Range 6,678–6,700 with liquidity sweeps. Reclaim of 6,700 during London often fades back into the range; prefer patience for NY AM.
Alternative: London sell program to 6,66x–6,64x → if quick reclaim above 6,652, that’s the Tier-2 bounce that feeds the NY long setup.
Bear path: Acceptance <6,640 in London → prepare for a trend-day lower toward 6,619 unless NY reverses on data.
AUDCAD: Trend ContinuationThere's a trend continuation opportunity present on the AUDCAD pair. Here's my breakdown by timeframe.
Daily Timeframe:
Price pulled back and held supported at EMA20, which isn't a strong indication of support
Strong uptrend is indicated by EMA20 above EMA60
H1 Timeframe:
There's confluence here where Price is exiting the EMA20/60 band
EMA20 also remains above EMA60 for a strong uptrend
Pricing breaking DTL also remains valid as there was upside momentum
Price breaks the 3,740 OB → bearish BOS → liquidity target at 3,1. Overall Picture
After a strong bullish rally, price formed a double top → distribution phase signal.
The 3,740 zone is currently acting as a liquidity zone (area holding buy-side stop-losses from bottom pickers).
2. Order Block (OB)
Before the strong bullish move, there was a Bullish Order Block around 3,740 – 3,750.
Now price is retesting this OB → if it breaks, the bearish momentum will likely be confirmed.
3. Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (ChoCh)
At the 3,790 high, the structure showed a ChoCh (shift from bullish → bearish).
If price breaks below the 3,740 zone → it will form a clear bearish BOS, confirming a medium-term downtrend.
4. Liquidity Hunt
The 3,740 support is packed with buy stop-loss orders.
A sharp break below this level could trigger a liquidity hunt, allowing “big players” to accumulate around 3,690 – 3,700 before a potential rebound.
5. SMC Scenarios
Bearish scenario (primary): Price breaks the 3,740 OB → bearish BOS → liquidity target at 3,690.
Bullish scenario (less likely): If price reacts strongly at the 3,740 OB with a bullish engulfing candle → price could retest the supply zone near 3,770 – 3,780 before resuming its decline.
👉 In summary: Under SMC, the downside target at 3,690 – 3,700 is the main scenario, after which we should watch if “big players” push the market back up to continue the broader uptrend.
: likely to panic-sell once support breaks, triggering stop-loss1. Price Structure
Previous trend: strong uptrend (from the 20th to the 23rd).
After reaching the ~3,790 peak: the market formed two lower highs → a sign of weakness.
The price is now retesting the key support zone around 3,740 – 3,750 (blue box).
2. Technical Pattern
This looks like a Double Top / variant of Head & Shoulders, signaling a bearish reversal.
The blue box area is the neckline – if broken, the pattern completes and the downtrend scenario has high probability.
3. Price Scenarios
If the 3,740 support breaks decisively:
Price may drop quickly towards 3,700 – 3,710 (nearest support).
Further down, it could retest the 3,670 – 3,680 area, as shown by your blue arrow.
If the 3,740 support holds:
Price could bounce back, forming a sideways consolidation before the next move.
However, the probability of a strong recovery is lower, as buying momentum has weakened.
4. Market Sentiment
Retail traders: likely to panic-sell once support breaks, triggering stop-loss cascades.
Big players / institutions: may take advantage around 3,700 to accumulate again after “stop-loss hunting” retailers.
👉 Conclusion: This is a short-term bearish scenario.
For existing long positions, consider taking profit / protecting capital if support breaks.
For dip buyers, it’s safer to wait for a positive reaction around 3,700 – 3,680.
USD/JPY - Bullish Channel, Next Targeting 148.95 (23.09.2025)#USDJPY #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis
USD/JPY is trading within a Bullish Channel Pattern on the 30M chart, holding above the rising trendline support. The pair is bouncing from the support zone (147.50 – 147.70), signaling potential upside continuation.
🔹 Market Structure:
Bullish channel intact with higher highs & higher lows.
Price rejected the support zone and trendline.
Momentum suggests buyers could retest upper channel resistance.
🔹 Key Levels:
Support Zone: 147.50 – 147.70
1st Resistance: 148.58
2nd Resistance: 148.95
📈 Trading Idea:
As long as USD/JPY stays above the support zone, bulls may drive price higher toward 148.58 → 148.95.
⚠️ Invalidation:
A break below 147.50 would weaken the bullish outlook.
“Discipline + Patience = Consistency 🔑”
Gold can Complete its Topping Pattern and FallHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market has been developing a complex consolidation structure after its initial uptrend failed to sustain momentum. After breaking out of a first range, the bullish impulse failed, leading to a breakdown below the major ascending mirror line and establishing the current, higher second range. The price action for XAU has since been contained within this new consolidation, repeatedly testing the upper resistance and lower support boundaries. Currently, the asset is again testing the upper boundary of this range, an area that has consistently attracted sellers. In my mind, this price action is forming a complex topping pattern. I expect that the price will be rejected from the top of the current range, perhaps after a brief interaction with the nearby mirror line, and then fail at the highs one more time. I think this final failure will trigger a significant decline with enough momentum to break the mirror line support decisively. Therefore, I have placed my TP at the 3630 current support level, targeting the bottom of this second range. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 24, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD holds near 1.18 amid a mix of more cautious Federal Reserve signals and signs of a gradual recovery in euro area business activity. Markets are pricing the Fed’s first step toward policy easing in a year alongside messages about proceeding carefully, which reduces the dollar’s appeal while Treasury yields remain broadly steady. The euro is supported by fresh flash PMIs: the composite index for the region improved, even if the picture remains uneven across countries. At the same time, the ECB kept rates unchanged at its September meeting and indicated that the pace of any further changes will depend on the inflation path and domestic demand.
In the United States, “fast” indicators point to slower business momentum, while price pressures—still above target—look more contained. This strengthens expectations for a moderate Fed rate-cut cycle by year-end. In this setup, the balance of yield differentials and policy expectations tilts slightly toward the euro, especially if incoming U.S. data continue to confirm cooling growth.
Key risks for EUR/USD buyers are U.S. inflation and employment releases: any upside surprises could revive demand for the dollar. On the euro side, vulnerabilities include German industrial weakness and stagnating new orders. Nevertheless, for the current week the balance of factors looks neutral-to-positive for the pair, supporting tactical buys from the 1.18 area.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.18050, SL 1.17750, TP 1.18600
iQIYI: bet on recovery or just another illusion?Fundamentally, iQIYI is often called the “Netflix of China.” In recent years, it has faced heavy pressure from high debt levels, fierce competition from Tencent Video and Bilibili, and slower growth in the Chinese domestic market. However, recent earnings reports show positive shifts: a growing subscriber base, higher ARPU (average revenue per user), and reduced operating losses. With government support for the tech and entertainment sector and signs of consumer recovery, iQIYI has a real chance to strengthen in the mid to long term. If subscriber growth and cost control continue, the company’s market cap could start to recover, making current levels attractive for medium-term investors.
Technically, the stock still trades below the 200 EMA, showing ongoing seller pressure. The key support zone is $2.30–2.40, and holding this area keeps the bullish scenario alive with targets at $3.40 and $5.25. A longer-term recovery could extend toward $10.40, but only if a sustainable uptrend is confirmed. Losing $2.30 would invalidate the bullish case and expose downside toward $1.60–1.80.
This is one of those situations where market expectations diverge from reality. Optimism makes a reversal seem near, but as always, emotions must be put aside — we wait for clear technical signals before entering.
USDX: demand zone holds but downside pressure remainsThe US dollar index remains under pressure, trading within a descending channel. The recent bounce from the support zone around 96.30–96.90 stalled at the EMAs and the supply zone near 98.30–98.60, where sellers reappeared. On the 4H chart, price has failed to sustain above 97.80, keeping the bearish scenario in play.
It is also important to note that the index is trading below the 200 EMA, reinforcing the bearish bias and signaling that sustainable recovery is less likely without strong fundamental catalysts.
If 96.90 breaks, the next downside target is 96.30, followed by 95.40. Stronger bearish momentum could even push the index toward 94.00, signaling further dollar weakness. For now, 96.30 acts as the key support barrier.
From a fundamental perspective, the dollar index remains weighed down by expectations of a dovish Fed and lower yields. Any hawkish surprise from Fed officials could lift price back toward 98.50, but the structure still favors bearish continuation.
This is exactly the kind of situation where market expectations diverge from reality, and the longer it lasts the more it feels like a trend reversal is near. But as always, emotions must be set aside — we wait for clear signals, not illusions.
USD/JPY(20250924)Today's AnalysisMarket Analysis:
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the policy rate remains somewhat restrictive, but allows the Fed to better respond to potential economic developments; tariffs are expected to have a one-time pass-through effect; and decisions will "never be based on political considerations." Fed spokespersons noted that Powell's comments indicate that he believes interest rates remain tight, potentially opening the door for further rate cuts.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
147.66
Support and Resistance Levels:
148.13
147.95
147.84
147.49
147.37
147.20
Trading Strategy:
If the market breaks above 147.84, consider entering a buy position, with the first target price being 148.13.
If the market breaks below 147.66, consider entering a sell position, with the first target price being 147.49.
ES (E-mini S&P 500) — Plan for Wed Sep 24Fundamentals (tomorrow, ET)
04:00 Germany IFO Business Climate (often moves European risk tone during London).
10:00 U.S. New Home Sales (Aug) — official Census schedule lists New Residential Sales at 10:00 a.m..
10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard time each Wed).
13:00 U.S. 5-Year Note auction (can nudge yields/indices).
Context: Yesterday’s U.S. flash PMIs showed slower but still-expanding activity (Composite 53.6 vs 54.6 Aug).
Bias(HTF→LTF)
HTF: Uptrend but near prior highs; Tuesday printed a lower-timeframe selloff into ~6,701–6,705 (confluence with D1 1.272 ≈ 6,705).
Base case into London: Two-way trade inside 6,701–6,744–6,756 triad while Europe digests IFO.
Two paths for NY:
Acceptance ↑ above 6,756.5 → squeeze the weak-highs toward 6,765–6,770, then 6,798–6,800 (D1 1.618).
Acceptance ↓ below 6,701–6,705 → trend rotation toward 6,690s → 6,680s (next liquidity shelves).
London session game plan
If Europe pushes up early: Watch 6,744. Failure there → rotate back to 6,711–6,718; clean reclaim → sets NY for a 6,756 test.
If Europe bleeds down: Look for sweep & hold behavior at 6,701–6,705; loss of that area on 15m body-through tends to trend extend into the 6,69x/6,68x shelves before NY AM.
NY AM (09:30–11:00 ET) and NY PM (13:30–16:00 ET) → full size, run the exact confirmations and targets I gave.
A++ Acceptance LONG — above 6,756.5
Confirmations (15/5/1):
• 15m full-body close above 6,756.5 (acceptance).
• 5m pullback holds ≥ 6,754–6,756 and re-closes up.
• 1m HL entry on first clean re-trigger.
Entry: 6,756–6,758 on the retest (or continuation >6,760 after 5m re-close).
Hard SL: below the 15m trigger wick or < 6,744 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is lower).
Targets: TP1 6,765–6,770, TP2 6,798–6,800, TP3 6,901.
Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trail before TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside < 6,756 after entry that fails the 5m hold → cancel and reassess.
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A++ Acceptance SHORT — below 6,701–6,705
Confirmations (15/5/1):
• 15m full-body close below 6,701 (body-through the band).
• 5m LH + re-close down on the retest of 6,701–6,705.
• 1m LH entry on first pullback failure.
Entry: 6,699–6,703 on the retest.
Hard SL: above the 15m trigger wick or > 6,705 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is higher).
Targets: TP1 6,690–6,692, TP2 6,680–6,685, TP3 trail if trend accelerates.
Management: Same rules as Setup #1 (TP1 70% + runner to BE; 45–60m time-stop; max 2 attempts).
Invalidation: Reclaim on 15m back above 6,705 that holds → cancel the short.
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Risk & timing notes
• 10:00 New Home Sales and 10:30 EIA can cause abrupt spikes; favor entries after the first post-data 5m bar closes unless already in with cushion.
• 13:00 5-Year auction can alter yield curve into the NY PM window; manage runners.






















