AUDUSD: Breaks Below ChannelThere's a very strong channel that formed on CMCMARKETS:AUDUSDU2025 originating since February 2025.
On the daily timeframe, price tested the lower channel boundary at the beginning of August. At that time, price respected this channel.
However, this wasn't the case more recently when price broke below this channel boundary and closed below it.
Moving over to the hourly timeframe, I'm monitoring the price action. I plotted an initial low that price traded post-breakout.
If price crosses below this initial low and makes a new lower low, that's an indication that momentum is picking up. If price reverts back, then it's a classic fakeout and then we'll hold off on this trade as price reverts back into the channel.
Analysis
FR40: Resistance BreakoutOn the daily timeframe, price tested a resistance level twice. The first time was in mid-July, which resulted in a strong bearish reaction.
The second time price tested the resistance was last and current week. There was barely any reaction, which leads me to believe sellers do not see this as an overbought area.
On the hourly timeframe, price did pull back slightly after crossing above the daily level. However, this is not a clear false breakout since price crossed above the intraday high rather quickly.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 20, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) recovered from a slight decline during the Asian session caused by mixed domestic data and on Wednesday showed positive dynamics for the second day in a row against the strengthening US dollar (USD). A government report showed that core orders for machinery and equipment in Japan unexpectedly rose in June. However, this was offset by a decline in Japanese exports in July for the third consecutive month, raising concerns about the outlook for the export-dependent economy. This added to uncertainty about the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and triggered some intraday selling of the Japanese yen.
On the other hand, the US dollar is attracting some follow-up buying for the third day in a row amid a decline in the likelihood of more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This is proving to be another factor providing some support for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, traders still consider it more likely that the Fed will resume its cycle of rate cuts in September. In contrast, the Bank of Japan is expected to stick to its policy normalization course and raise interest rates before the end of the year. This, in turn, could limit the US dollar's gains and help contain deeper losses for the lower-yielding Japanese yen ahead of the FOMC minutes release.
Trade recommendation: SELL 147.10, SL 148.00, TP 146.20
EURGBP shorts due to higher than expected UK CPI y/y readingThe most recent UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July 2025 indicates an annual inflation rate of 3.8%, an increase from 3.6% in June 2025, marking the highest level in 18 months. Key drivers include rising transport costs and food inflation hitting a 16-month peak. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbed to 3.7% from 3.5% in May 2025. The CPI index stood at 138.90 points in June 2025, up from 138.40 points in May.
As a result of the above date, we expect the EUR to weaken against GBP.
AUDCHF: Breaks Below Ascending TrendlineMy observations across the Daily (D1) and Hourly (H1) timeframes.
D1 timeframe:
My EMA20 is below the EMA 60. Price has ranged a bit longer than I anticipated, but we are now getting the indication that the downtrend is continuing.
Price is also below EMA20, which helps to signal momentum is picking up.
H1 Timeframe:
After price crossed below the daily ascending trendline, it stalled and then pulled back up. To some, this is a fakeout. To others, this is a liquidity trap.
I remained patient and found an opportunity to enter on the longer bearish bar, which shows price is pushing below prior lows after this breakout lower.
NZDUSD short due to as exptected interrest rate decion by RBNZDThe current benchmark interest rate in New Zealand, known as the Official Cash Rate (OCR), is 3.0%, as set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). This follows a 25-basis-point cut from 3.25% on August 20, 2025, marking the lowest rate since August 2022.
Due to this result, we expect NZD to weaken against the USD.
XAU/USD - Bearish Flag Pattern (16.08.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3318
2nd Support – 3308
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EURUSD UPDATEAs you can see, EUR/USD has finally reached the upside target — the supply zone around 1.17000, where I identified an opportunity and entered short positions. This analysis was originally shared on August 3rd, and it has played out very well.
Currently, I have set three downside targets (marked with the red lines). At each level, I will closely monitor price action to decide whether to take partial profits. Depending on how the market reacts, I may also look for potential long entries in case of a reversal. If the market continues in my favor, I am satisfied with securing profits from the short trade.
$XAUUSD Mark-Up XAUUSD LTF Analysis - Aug 19
Analysis Notes:
On the 4H timeframe, the price has entered a ranging structure and is currently within the 4H IFC.
My expectation is that after the IFC is consumed, the price will move towards the weak high and the liquidity levels.
You can look for entry confirmations on lower timeframes.
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🔝 Score: 21 | Balance: ~$500k | Results: $49.3k→$756.5k (+1,535%, 16 trades; avg buy $830 / sell 3,613; age 67m; rating 136).
USDCAD potentail longs due to weaker than expected CAD CPI y/y The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025 showed a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 1.7%, down from 1.9% in June 2025 and below the forecast of 1.8%. The decline in headline inflation was largely due to falling gasoline prices, though food and shelter costs continued to push inflation higher.
Due to the weaker-than-expected economic data, we expect the CAD to weaken against the USD.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 19, 2025 GBPUSDSterling is holding around 1.35 following the Bank of England’s “hawkish cut” in August: the BoE eased by 25 bps but signaled that subsequent moves will be cautious and data-dependent, with services inflation and labor-market cooling in focus. This guidance tempered expectations for an aggressive easing cycle and supported the UK curve versus the US, improving GBP’s relative appeal in the near term.
Recent UK data have been resilient, particularly in services, while wage growth is cooling more slowly than the BoE would prefer. That gives the MPC room to “wait and see,” which markets interpret as supportive for the pound. An additional tailwind comes from the US side: rising odds of a Fed pivot weaken the dollar across the board, adding upward pressure on GBPUSD.
In the US, the short-term balance of risks tilts toward a softer dollar as investors concentrate on likely autumn rate cuts and signs of moderating growth. While periodic geopolitical jitters can lift the greenback, without a renewed hawkish push from the Fed such spurts tend to fade. Overall, conditions favor a gradual GBPUSD recovery from current levels.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.35050, SL 1.34750, TP 1.35650
EURO Breakout Alert- Long Setup In Play EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1660, showing strong bullish momentum after holding key support levels. The pair is forming higher lows, indicating sustained buying pressure. If price action maintains above 1.1650, the next upside target is 1.1700, with a potential extension towards 1.1730. Euro strength is driven by positive market sentiment and weakness in the dollar index. Watch for a clean breakout above 1.1675 for confirmation of further upside. Ideal buy entry remains around 1.1660 with stop loss below 1.1640. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as the pair stays above 1.1640.
GBPAUD – 4H FVG Rejection Could Trigger Bearish Move
On the 4H chart, GBPAUD is approaching a Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone near 2.0900 , where I expect sellers to step in. Price has already shown exhaustion signs, and if rejection happens, the downside path looks more probable.
With the 200 EMA still hovering below, a clean rejection from FVG could open the way for a move down to 2.0610 (expected target). If bearish momentum extends, the next level to watch will be around 2.0472 (Fib extension support) .
📉 Bias – Bearish from FVG rejection
📍 Key Resistance – 2.0900 FVG zone
🎯 Target Levels – 2.0610 → 2.0472
Gold Technical Outlook – Midpoint Support Holds, Retest of 3,500On the Daily Chart, gold has been climbing steadily since New Year’s Day, with several pullbacks along the way but maintaining its overall bullish trajectory.
After breaking into the 3,167.72 – 3,430.46 range, price has shown comfort within this zone. The midpoint at 3,286.94 (Green Line) has acted as a supportive bias, with price holding above it — reinforcing the view that bulls remain in control.
That said, this period of consolidation has lasted longer than expected, breaking the previous rising trajectory (shown by the diagonal Red Line). This suggests that momentum has weakened.
Importantly, this doesn’t confirm that the bullish run is over — but it does highlight the market’s current struggle to push higher with strength. A high of 3,500.02 was briefly tested but quickly rejected, which leads me to believe the market still has reason to retest that level in the near future.
Is this where GJ starts making its big move?Hi Traders,
After breaking out of a failed swing tapping 200.000, GJ came down to retest the failed swing area at 199.000, bounced and reversed. Around 199.500 could be another retest/entry area before continuation. The weekly looks really good IMO, so I am planning to swing trade. My first target would be around 201.500, and then 203.000. 203.000 would hit an area of a weekly bearish OB.
*DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
Is GBPUSD Setting up for a Long Swing?Hi Traders!
I've been watching this pair. It seems like it could be setting up for a long swing. I would like to see a retest around 1.34900/800, and how it reacts to that area. That'd hit a Daily Order Block. In addition, the weekly made a break of structure, and dipped into a weekly breaker OB, then pushed up. However, the only thing I don't like is it's at a weekly resistance. But, IMO the monthly looks bullish.
So, over all I'm bullish on this pair and will plan to swing, I just need my confluences to match up fully before taking this trade.
*DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
XAUUSD: The decline has stopped, continue to buyAs the talks between Trump and Putin achieved results on Saturday, risk aversion decreased, gold fell rapidly at the opening, and after briefly breaking through 3330, it found support again and rebounded strongly, reaching a high of 3358. Subsequently, the price of gold entered a slow decline, mainly because the market was waiting for the results of the talks between Trump, Zelensky and several European leaders, which was the main factor affecting the subsequent rise and fall of gold prices.
Personally, I think it is unlikely that this meeting will completely resolve the situation between Russia and Ukraine. Since it cannot be resolved, the geopolitical risks still exist, and the market's risk aversion is unlikely to decline, so gold will continue to rise.
Today's focus is on 3340. If support is found, consider buying.
🏆Trade setup:
📈Buy at 3340
✅Target 1 - 3355
✅Target 2 - 3370
🛑Stop Loss - 3330
📣If you have different opinions, please leave a message below to discuss
Gold can make correction and then continue to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The price market is currently in a state of equilibrium, consolidating within a large symmetrical triangle after a significant upward rebound from the recent lows near the 3310 buyer zone. This reversal invalidated the prior downward trend and has since forced the price into a period of balance, characterized by contracting volatility between a descending resistance line and an ascending support line. The price has been methodically rotating within this structure, with the seller zone around the 3390 resistance level consistently rejecting bullish attempts. At present, the asset is undergoing another downward correction, approaching the critical ascending support line of the triangle for a key test. The primary working hypothesis is a long scenario, based on the expectation that buyers will once again defend this dynamic support and maintain the integrity of the consolidation pattern. A confirmed and strong bounce from this support line would signal the start of another major upward rotation within the triangle. Therefore, the tp for this long idea is strategically placed at the 3390 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Ripple may bounce up from buyer zone to top part of rangeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Ripple. The market for Ripple has undergone a significant structural shift, with the prior upward channel giving way to a new phase of horizontal consolidation following a decisive breakdown. This event signaled a pause in the strong bullish momentum and established a new trading range, with the major buyer zone around the 2.9525 support level now acting as the foundational floor for the price. After the initial drop, the price has been trading within this new, more contained range, undergoing a series of corrective movements. Currently, the asset is in another downward leg, heading towards the critical buyer zone for what could be a decisive test of this support. The primary working hypothesis is a long scenario, based on the expectation that demand will overcome supply within this 2.9525 - 2.9000 area. A confirmed and strong rebound from this key support would indicate that the corrective phase is over and that buyers are ready to initiate a new rotation to the upside. Therefore, the TP for this range-based play is logically set at the 3.1830 level. This target corresponds with the top of the current consolidation range and represents the most probable objective for a bullish swing originating from the established support base. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 18, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD starts the week around 1.17300, holding above the psychologically important 1.17000 level and extending gains after Friday’s correction. According to Torforex, staying above the 1.16500–1.16700 range confirms a bullish scenario and signals the market’s readiness to test the 1.17600–1.18000 areas.
From a fundamental perspective, the dollar remains under pressure following an “atypical” US inflation report: July CPI came in below expectations, reviving speculation about a possible Fed rate cut as early as the fall. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have stabilized but remain below July highs, limiting the dollar’s appeal for fixed-income investors.
In the euro area, the euro receives short-term support from the persistent current account surplus and moderate expansion in services activity. We also assume the recent 25bp ECB rate cut is largely priced in; the next steps will depend on the dynamics of core inflation (company research desk view). Overall, we expect a continuation of a moderate upward move.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.17250, SL 1.17050, TP 1.18250
JSW Cement: Company Profile & Sector Analysis
🙀🧐Conclusion 🧐🙀
🤔While JSW Cement demonstrates ambition and operational scale in India’s vibrant cement sector, its financial health is tempered by high leverage and modest returns. Strong governance, strategic debt management, and transparent reporting will be critical as the company seeks market leadership among robust peers. Long-term investors should closely monitor improvements in cash flows and efficiency, given sector opportunities and competitive dynamics.
🧐The cement sector shows strong growth led by robust leaders; JSW Cement is a promising but highly leveraged mid-cap facing profitability and liquidity challenges. Sector fundamentals remain resilient, but JSW’s turnaround depends on prudent financial and governance reforms
🌺🌺About JSW Cement🌺🌺
JSW Cement is a prominent Indian cement manufacturer, recently listed on BSE and NSE in August 2025. The company aims to rapidly expand its production capacity and footprint across key markets with a focus on sustainable manufacturing and innovative processes.
🤯Cement Sector Growth & Future Potential🤯
- India’s cement demand driven by government infrastructure push and urbanization.
- Sector CAGR expected at 7-9% over the next five years with rapid capacity additions.
- Companies investing in green cement, alternative fuels, and digital operations.
- Consolidation and entry of large players signal a highly competitive future market landscape.
🧐Financials Snapshot (FY25)🧐
- Revenue: ₹6,028 crore
- Operating Margin: 15.3%
- EBITDA Margin: 16%
- Net Margin: 1%
- Market Cap: ₹7,400 crore
- Free Cash Flow: Negative
😶🌫️Key Ratios😶🌫️
- Debt/Equity Ratio: 2.6 (sector high)
- Return on Equity (ROE): 0.6% (below industry average)
- Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): 8%
- Current Ratio: 0.65
- Dividend Payout: 0%
👷🏻 Peer Analysis👷🏻
- UltraTech Cement, Shree Cement, and Ambuja Cement lead with stronger margins and lower debt.
- JSW Cement’s leverage (high debt) impacts profitability and shareholder returns.
- Sector leaders maintain ROE and ROCE above 10-13%; JSW lags in these metrics.
- Free cash flow in JSW Cement lags behind top peers due to high investment and operational pressures.
- Margins are competitive but net profitability is limited compared to industry best.
- JSW Cement is positioned as a mid-cap, growth-oriented player with room for efficiency improvement.
- Company’s focus on expansion adds long-term growth potential.
- Peer companies show higher liquidity and sustainable dividend payout records.