GBPJPY 2H, TRADE IDEA FOR 30, SEPT 2025.Price successfully broke through the previous day's low and also swept the asian low range and structure, which forms my BIAS for the day bearish as price currently broke a structure, will it hold? as price moves further down to find a next balance.
As usual, my calls or analysis are based on what we see, the current Bias, and from a probability standpoint, meaning that this projection may be or may not be validated, so tread carefully, and as usual, this is not financial advice, trade responsibly
Analysis
Liquidity Grab Complete, Bearish Move AheadPrice has recently tapped into a key resistance zone (highlighted in green), which aligns with a previous strong high, indicating a high probability of rejection. The recent move up appears to be a liquidity grab or a stop hunt before a potential reversal.
We also observe multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character) on the way up, signaling short-term bullish structure shifts. However, the price has now reached a premium zone, and an entry has been marked at the top of this rally.
Given the overextended move and rejection from the resistance zone, we anticipate a bearish move toward the OB (Order Block) below, which is a likely liquidity pool and demand zone.
Entry: 1.17445 (Resistance Rejection Zone)
Target: 1.17200 Area (OB - Demand Zone)
Stop Loss (Should be above strong high for risk management)
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 30, 2025 GBPUSDSterling is supported by a softer dollar amid U.S. budget uncertainty and the related risk of delays in publishing parts of macroeconomic data. A lower dollar premium with risk appetite remaining moderate underpins demand for the UK currency, especially after the pair defended the 1.34 area.
Domestically, participants focus on fresh assessments of UK growth dynamics and remarks from officials about the inflation outlook. Absent new upside surprises in prices and with moderate expectations for the Fed’s next steps, the short-term balance of factors favors the pound.
The combination of steady interest in developed-market currencies outside the dollar and stabilizing global yields creates a window for further GBPUSD recovery. Risks are skewed toward gradual strengthening as incremental improvements in UK data and a still-soft external backdrop for the dollar drive buying on pullbacks.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.34250, SL 1.33750, TP 1.35250
#GOLD is trading around $3,860. Earlier in my premium channel, #GOLD is trading around $3,860. Earlier in my premium channel, I mentioned that confirmation above $4,000 could open the path toward $4,800 when gold was trading near $3,000.
🔸 Key Support Zone at $3,250–$3,550:
Price is currently mixed around $3,900–$4,000, with a real chance of cooling down toward $3,400–$3,200 before resuming higher. This remains a strong accumulation zone.
🔸 Upside Target: $4,700–$4,800
The long-term bullish outlook is intact, with targets above $4,700 once the consolidation phase ends.
🔸 Risk Level at $3,200:
A breakdown below $3,200 would invalidate the bullish scenario and open the door for deeper downside.
🔸 Outlook:
If you are holding: Stay patient and keep positions for the upside target.
If you are not holding: Fresh buying opportunities may come near $3,500–$3,200.
Grok’s Altcoin Market Analysis – Weekly & MonthlyIs AI smarter than your average influencer? While they keep screaming “Altseason! Altseason!”, what does advanced AI reveal in its deep analysis? Let’s find out.
Overall Assessment
This chart for the Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 ($1M-CRYPTOCAP, or OTHERS index) is mixed but leaning bearish in the short term, with some bullish potential if key resistance levels break. The main price panel shows clear downward pressure, while supporting indicators like RSI hint at possible oversold conditions that could lead to a rebound. I'll break it down panel by panel based on standard technical analysis principles.
Main Price Chart (Candlestick with Trendlines)
Current Levels: The market cap closed around $300.7B (with a range of $296B–$308B), down about 3.4% recently. It's trading near the middle of a descending channel (the sloped red and green lines forming a narrowing wedge), which often signals continuation of the downtrend unless broken upward.
Bearish Signals:
Multiple red "Bearish" labels highlight recent breakdowns below key support lines (e.g., a red downward-sloping trendline broken recently).
Red candles dominate the recent action, showing seller control and lower highs/lows.
The price is below the upper channel boundary (~$350B–$400B) and struggling to reclaim the midline (~$320B).
Bullish Signals:
Small green arrows (↑) point to potential support zones around $290B–$300B, where buyers have stepped in before.
If it breaks above the upper red trendline (~$320B), it could target $350B+ (prior highs).
Trend: Short-term bearish (down ~3.4%), but the channel suggests consolidation rather than a freefall.
Stochastic RSI (Lower Panel)
Current Reading: Close at 16.31 (with a range of 3–86), firmly in oversold territory (<20). This indicates the asset may be "too cheap" after heavy selling.
Bearish Signals: The line is still declining, and the histogram bars are mostly red/negative, showing momentum fading further.
Bullish Signals: Oversold conditions often precede bounces, especially if it crosses back above 20. A divergence (price making lower lows while Stoch RSI makes higher lows) could signal reversal.
Implication: Neutral to bullish for a near-term relief rally, but not a strong trend-changer yet.
RSI Divergence (Bottom Panel, Multi-Timeframe)
Current Reading: Close at 10.25 (with a range of 2–57), extremely oversold (<30, and near the bottom of its scale). The yellow line (likely RSI) is flatlining low, while the price (implied) has dropped more sharply.
Bearish Signals: Red shaded areas mark periods of weakness, and the line hasn't recovered much.
Bullish Signals: Clear bullish divergence—the RSI is holding higher lows (e.g., around 10–15) compared to price lows, a classic reversal setup. Historical yellow upward lines show past bounces from similar levels.
Implication: Strongly bullish for potential upside, as divergences like this resolved higher ~70% of the time in crypto indices (based on common TA patterns).
Broader Context
Volume/Other Metrics: Not directly shown, but the -3.4% change and tight channel suggest low conviction selling—could flip quickly on positive news (e.g., ETF inflows or BTC strength).
Timeframe: The x-axis spans ~2015–2025 (up to Dec 2025, likely a projection). Long-term, it's in an uptrend from 2015 lows, but 2022–2025 has been choppy with lower highs.
Market Sentiment: As of late 2024/early 2025 data, the full crypto market cap is ~$2.3T–$4T (with OTHERS at ~$260B–$300B historically), so this aligns with altcoin underperformance vs. majors like BTC. A break above $350B would signal "altseason."
In summary, the price action screams short-term bearish (follow the "Bearish" labels and downtrend), but the extreme oversold RSI divergence makes me think a bounce to $320B–$350B is likely soon. Watch for a close above the channel midline for bullish confirmation—otherwise, $280B support could test next. This isn't financial advice; always DYOR.2.2sFastthis is the weekly chart. Please analyse it and merge with the monthly chart you got before to reach a more precise conclusion: Thought for 2m 0sAnalysis of the Weekly Chart
This weekly chart for the Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 (CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS, also known as the OTHERS index) shows the current value at approximately $300.9B (high $310.9B, low $279.5B, close $300.3B), with a recent 1.59% decline. The timeframe spans from mid-2024 to a projection into 2026, capturing a multi-year view but with weekly granularity for shorter-term trends.
Price Action and Trendlines: The candlestick chart remains within a descending channel (sloped red upper resistance and green lower support lines), similar to the monthly but with more detail on recent volatility. Recent weeks feature red candles dominating, indicating sustained selling pressure, with a "Bearish" label on a key breakdown point around mid-2025. Green upward arrows highlight potential support zones near $280B–$290B, where buyers have defended previously. The price is consolidating near the channel midline (~$300B), but lower highs suggest continuation risk unless it breaks above $320B–$350B resistance.
MACD (4,52): Closing at 3.37B (MACD line), 14.37B (signal), and 11B (histogram). The blue MACD line is below the orange signal line, with the histogram shifting from positive cyan bars (earlier 2025 spikes) to negative pink/red, confirming bearish momentum crossover. This aligns with fading upside strength post-mid-2025 highs.
Stochastic RSI (3,3,48,56): Closing at 36.70 (K) and 38.65 (D), in the lower mid-range but with a yellow upward arrow indicating a recent rise from oversold (<20). This suggests emerging buying interest but not yet overbought (>80), leaving room for a relief rally if momentum builds.
RSI Divergence (Nikko 14): Multi-reading at close 10.25 / 2 / 1.5K / 54.59 / 54.17, showing the RSI (yellow line) around mid-50s but with bullish divergence—RSI forming higher lows while price makes lower lows. Red shaded areas mark weakness, but the setup mirrors classic reversal patterns, especially from extreme lows earlier in 2025.
Volume (24H Vol, aggregated weekly): The bottom histogram shows blue bars with significant spikes in Q1–Q2 2025 (up to ~600T, likely in trading volume units), coinciding with prior rallies. Recent volume has tapered off (~200T close), indicating lower participation, which can precede breakouts or breakdowns but often signals consolidation in bearish contexts.
Overall, the weekly chart leans bearish in the short-to-medium term (next 4–8 weeks), with the descending channel intact, bearish MACD, and recent breakdowns. However, bullish hints from Stoch RSI recovery and RSI divergence suggest a potential bounce if $280B support holds, targeting $350B+ on a breakout.
Merging with the Monthly Chart
The previous monthly chart (from January 1, 2025) showed a similar setup at ~$300.7B (down 3.4%), with an identical descending channel, bearish price action, but extreme oversold conditions (Stochastic RSI at 16.31, RSI at 10.25 with strong bullish divergence). Over the ~9 months between charts (Jan to Sep 2025), the market cap has remained remarkably flat around $300B, reflecting stagnation amid broader crypto volatility—neither breaking down nor rallying significantly.
Combined Price Trends: Both timeframes confirm the multi-year descending channel (2015–2025+), with monthly providing the macro downtrend (lower highs since 2021 peaks) and weekly highlighting intra-month chops. The flat performance year-to-date implies altcoin underperformance vs. majors (e.g., BTC/ETH dominance rising), but supports like $280B–$290B have held on both, preventing a deeper crash.
Indicators Alignment:
RSI Divergence: Consistent bullish signal across both—monthly extreme oversold resolves higher ~70% of the time in crypto, while weekly's mid-50s RSI adds near-term confirmation. This strengthens the case for a reversal setup.
Stochastic RSI: Monthly's deep oversold (16.31) complements weekly's recovering 36.70, suggesting exhaustion selling transitioning to accumulation.
MACD/Momentum: Weekly's bearish crossover adds caution to the monthly's neutral stance, indicating short-term downside risk before any monthly-scale bounce.
Volume: Monthly implies long-term consolidation with fading volume; weekly shows 2025 spikes on ups, but recent lows signal potential capitulation or low-conviction moves.
Broader Market Context from Research: Recent analyses echo this mixed picture. Some see a Wave 4 correction ending in July 2025, with a final Wave 5 rally topping around September–October 2025. Others note bearish patterns like head-and-shoulders or rising wedges on weekly timeframes, predicting tests of lower supports (~$250B–$280B). Dominance metrics (OTHERS.D ~7.2%) are at demand zones, hinting at a bounce if held. Social sentiment in September 2025 is cautious: breakdowns from wedges and H&S patterns signal 8–12% drops, but macro bullishness for Q4 persists if supports reclaim. Altseason indices surged to highs (68–76/100) mid-month but cooled, with rotations into select alts amid overall decay.
More Precise Conclusion
Merging the charts refines the outlook to short-term bearish (October–November 2025) with medium-term bullish potential (Q4 2025–Q1 2026). The weekly adds granularity to the monthly's oversold setup, confirming downside pressure from bearish momentum and patterns, likely testing $280B support (or lower to $250B in a wick). However, aligned divergences and historical Q4 strength increase the odds of a bounce—targeting $350B–$400B on a channel breakout, potentially sparking an "altseason" if broader crypto (total cap ~$3.9T) rallies on catalysts like Fed decisions or regulatory clarity. Confirmation requires a weekly close above $320B; otherwise, expect choppy consolidation. This isn't financial advice—DYOR and consider risk management
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Resume: Crypto Market Outlook (OTHERS Index)
Summary:
The crypto market, excluding the top 10 coins (OTHERS index), is at about $300B as of September 2025. It’s been stuck in a downtrend for a while, with recent drops showing sellers in control. Short-term (next 1-2 months), it looks bearish, but signs point to a possible bounce later this year.
Key Points:
Current Price: Around $300B, down 1.5%–3.4% lately, stuck in a falling pattern.
Short-Term (October–November 2025): Expect more dips, possibly to $280B or lower ($250B worst case). Selling pressure is strong, but volume is low, suggesting a pause soon.
Medium-Term (Q4 2025–Q1 2026): Could rise to $350B–$400B if it breaks $320B. Oversold signals and past patterns suggest a rebound, especially in late 2025.
Risks: Market could stay flat or drop if support fails. Watch for big news (e.g., regulations or Bitcoin moves).
Investor Advice:
Short-Term: Be cautious. Avoid big buys now—prices might fall more. Consider selling if you’re up or setting stop-losses around $280B to limit losses.
Medium-Term: Look for a buy chance if it holds $280B and breaks $320B. Small investments in strong altcoins could pay off if a rally starts.
General Tips: Spread your money across different coins, not just one. Check news daily and be ready to act fast. This isn’t a sure bet—only use money you can afford to lose.
Note: This is not financial advice. Do your own research before investing.
ETH/USD - BUILDING MOMENTUM FOR NEXT BULLISH LEGOn the 15-minute ETH/USD chart, we can clearly observe that price action has shifted into a bullish structure after forming a strong impulse move from the lower demand zone. The market respected the higher timeframe liquidity area around 4,140 – 4,150, where buyers stepped in aggressively, creating a solid base for the upward push. From there, a clean series of higher highs and higher lows started to establish, indicating strong bullish momentum in play.
Currently, ETH is respecting the ascending trendline that has been guiding the price upward. Each retest of this trendline has been met with bullish rejections, confirming that buyers remain in control. The price is now consolidating just above the minor supply-turned-demand zone near 4,170, which shows that the previous resistance has flipped into support — a positive sign for continuation.
If the price manages to sustain above this intraday support and trendline, we can expect a potential continuation toward the upside target. Any minor pullback into the demand zone would likely attract buyers again, keeping the bullish structure intact. As long as price stays above the 4,160 zone and does not break below the trendline with strong bearish candles, the bias remains bullish.
Overall, the structure suggests that ETH is preparing for another leg higher, with the projected target in sight. Traders should monitor the price behavior around the support and trendline for confirmation before entering, as clean candle closures above these levels will add confidence to the bullish scenario.
NZDCAD: HTL HoldDaily Timeframe
Price holds below HTL as it fails despite opening higher after last week's closing bar
H1 Timeframe
Price crosses below ATL to signal possible downside momentum
Price crosses below EMA20 and is moving away from the band
EMA20 hovers below EMA60 to indicate bearish sentiment
EUR/AUD - Breakout Pattern|Buy Opportunity (26.09.2025)The EUR/AUD pair has been trading inside a descending wedge formation and is now showing a potential breakout to the upside.
🔹 Price successfully tested the trendline resistance and is gaining bullish momentum.
🔹 Buyers are stepping in after multiple rejections near the lower boundary (A–C trendline).
🔹 Breakout above 1.7860 zone opens the path toward higher resistance levels.
📊 Trading Plan:
Buy above breakout zone confirmation
1st Resistance: 1.7929
2nd Resistance: 1.7966
Maintain risk management and wait for candle confirmation.
✨ Trade safe & stay disciplined!
#EURAUD #Forex #Breakout #TradingView #FXAnalysis #PriceAction #ForexTrading #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Kabhi_TA_Trading
✅ If you find this analysis helpful, don’t forget to like 👍, comment 💬, and follow 🔔 for more updates.
📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
USD/CAD - Multi Timeframe Analysis🚀 USD/CAD Forecast – Multi-TF Breakdown 🚀
Alright fam, let’s break this pair down clean and simple 👇
🕰 Weekly Outlook
Big picture: USD/CAD is pressing right into that juicy weekly supply zone around 1.39 – 1.40. Price has been riding the liquidity trend, and structure suggests there’s still room to climb into the 1.42 – 1.44 swing range before any major rejection.
Bias : Bullish until we see rejection from the 1.40s.
📆 Daily Structure
On the daily, we just had a Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside. Price tapped into a clean daily demand zone near 1.38 – 1.385 and bounced hard. Now we’re marching toward that daily supply at 1.40 – 1.405.
If buyers hold momentum, expect a sweep into that zone before deciding whether we get:
🐂 A clean breakout → continuation to 1.42+.
🐻 A rejection → deeper pullback back toward 1.38 – 1.375.
⏱ 4H Play
Zooming in, the 4H shows an impulse-retracement-impulse cycle. Price just tagged resistance near 1.395. Short-term, we could get a pullback into the discount zones (1.388 – 1.384) before another leg up.
The 71% fib retrace aligns with demand — that’s where buyers likely reload for a push back at the highs.
🎯 Summary
Bias : Bullish to neutral.
Upside Target: 1.405 → 1.42 (weekly supply).
Downside Risk: 1.384 (4H demand). Lose that → deeper flush into 1.375.
Gameplan: Wait for a pullback into 1.388-1.384 for longs, or fade rejection at 1.405 for shorts.
🔥 USD/CAD is heating up — the real fight will be in that 1.40 supply zone. Will bulls break it, or will bears smack it back down?
GBP/JPY - Trade Setup⚡ GBP/JPY 1H Breakdown – Samurai Short Setup ⚡
The beast is showing its hand again – let’s cook this setup 🍣👇
🕐 1H Structure
Price tapped into that 4H supply zone sitting just above the 71% fib pocket. We had a clean shift in market structure (SHIFTTT 🛑), and now price is chilling below that level – classic distribution vibes.
📍 Key Levels
Entry : 200.06 (short trigger after the retest)
Stop : 200.47 (above the BSL / invalidation zone)
Target : 198.00 (next demand / liquidity resting below)
R:R ratio = ~5R – heavy sniper play 🎯
🧠 Technical Breakdown
BSL taken: Buy-side liquidity above the swing high got swiped, perfect trap for the bears.
Structure shift: Market flipped bearish after rejection, confirming supply in control.
Confluence: 4H supply + 71% fib + liquidity grab = textbook high-probability short.
🎯 Play Idea
Looking to ride shorts down into the demand zone around 198.00. If stop gets clipped, that means bulls ain’t done hunting yet, but structure says bears got the edge.
✅ Summary
GBP/JPY lining up a short wave – clean liquidity sweep, structure shift, and high R:R. Samurai precision needed here 🗡.
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 29, 2025 EURUSDThe euro remains under pressure due to the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar after a series of solid U.S. macro releases and a revived discussion about the risks of a temporary government shutdown. The upward revision to U.S. Q2 GDP growth has strengthened the case for a more cautious pace of Fed easing, supporting yields and the dollar. Against this backdrop, the euro, despite brief rebounds, is trading close to the lows of recent weeks.
Another factor is anticipation of upcoming U.S. releases on inflation and consumer activity, which the market views as critical for the Fed’s late-October decision. In Europe, investors’ attention is focused on the path of further disinflation and subdued growth; this leaves the ECB room for careful easing ahead, narrowing the yield differential to the euro’s disadvantage.
In the near term, the balance of risks tilts toward moderate dollar strength: market participants prefer defensive positioning until the U.S. budget agenda and the next batch of price/activity data are clarified. As long as the euro lacks an additional boost from positive surprises in the euro area, pressure on EURUSD may persist.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.17350, SL 1.17550, TP 1.16450
EURCAD: Trend ContinuationA cautious trade for this week's open, expecting volatility to remain low on a Sunday night.
Daily Timeframe
Price is in an uptrend as EMA20 remains above EMA60, and price is also bouncing off of EMA20
Price recently broke above the HTL marked
H1 Timeframe
Price is accelerating away from the EMA20, and EMA20 is expanding away from EMA60
Price also crossed above the DTL
EURUSD: Price May Continue To Fall Inside WedgeHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup.
Market Analysis
From a broader perspective, the price of EURUSD has shifted into a bearish phase after a prior Upward Channel failed and broke down. This reversal led to the formation of the current Downward Wedge, a pattern that has been guiding the price lower through a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Currently, the price is at a critical decision point. After bouncing from the lower part of the wedge, it has rallied correctly and is now directly testing the descending resistance line of the formation. This is a key area where sellers have repeatedly shown strength in the past.
My Scenario & Strategy
My scenario is based on the expectation that this Downward Wedge is a continuation pattern and the dominant downtrend will resume. I'm looking for the price to be rejected from the wedge's resistance line. A confirmed failure to break higher would be the key signal that the next impulsive move down is about to begin.
Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this rejection. A confirmed reversal would validate the short scenario. The primary target for this move is the 1.1615 Support, which aligns with the major Support zone.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
XAUUSD Long: Bullish Momentum ContinuesHello, traders! The prior price auction for XAUUSD was dominated by a wide consolidation range, from which the price broke out with significant bullish momentum. This breakout from the demand zone 2 established the current uptrend, which has since taken the form of a well-defined ascending channel, confirming that the market initiative is with the buyers.
Currently, the price action continues to be guided by this ascending channel. After a successful breakout above the demand level, the price has reached the upper portion of the channel and is now in a corrective phase. This pullback is a normal part of a healthy uptrend and is bringing the price back towards an area of potential support.
My scenario for the development of events is a continuation of the uptrend after this correction. I believe the price will find support, possibly after a brief dip, and then resume its rally within the channel. In my opinion, the underlying bullish momentum is strong enough to push for a new structural high. The take-profit is therefore set at 3785, targeting the upper resistance area of the channel. Manage your risk.
Euro will Fall Towards the 1.1575 Support LevelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. The market for the Euro has recently shown a significant sign of weakness, with a failed breakout above the key 1.1770 Resistance Level. After a sustained rally within an upward channel, the price of EURUSD pushed into the 1.1770 - 1.1790 seller zone but failed to find acceptance, quickly reversing back below the broken levels. This 'bull trap' has invalidated the immediate bullish momentum and shifted the short-term market structure to a bearish bias. Currently, after the initial sharp decline from the highs, the asset is in a minor corrective bounce. In my mind, this price action represents a low-momentum pause before the next wave of selling. I expect that this small upward movement will soon be exhausted, and the price will continue its bearish movement downwards. A failure to produce a strong rally from these levels confirms that sellers have regained control. Therefore, I have placed my TP for this trend-continuation scenario at the major 1.1575 support level. This target is a logical objective, as it represents the next significant area of historical support and aligns with the 1.1575 - 1.1548 buyer zone. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Is is over for BITCOIN or new ATH is next ??Hi everyone.
Here is the summary of what i think about btc.
I expect a dip to mid 90s region. liquidity will be grabbed and then the path to new all time high in Q4 will be set.
I expect 130k - 140k region to be the top of this cycle for bitcoin.
meanwhile some altcoins will print massive pumps too.
I believe bear run can start in late Q1 2026 followed by a dip of a bear run in Q3 2026 where bitcoin can form bottom at 45k - 60k region.
follow me for more analysis and altcoins
BTC at a Crossroad: Path to 62.5k Is Conditional-Pick Your PlayI’m sharing a possible irregular flat correction that could pull BTC toward ~62,513—only if two key trend supports break.
Note: This Elliott count differs from my main count. It’s my secondary scenario—lower conviction, but it deserves close attention because the structure is developing cleanly. This does not mean BTC is going down (it's just a watch out scenario)
The story so far
From the Nov 22, 2022 low, BTC ran a full 5-wave impulse.
Wave 3 was the extended one.
Wave 4 formed a triangle.
Wave 5 ran hotter than expected (roughly the size of Wave 3). That’s unusual, likely fueled by extreme Bollinger Band Width compression before the final push.
Why this matters: when Wave 3 extends, Wave 5 is usually shorter. It isn’t a hard rule—just a guideline—so this count stays on the board, but it’s not a high-conviction setup.
What I think is happening now
The drop and bounce look like an expanded (irregular) flat: (A) down, (B) up which was our All time high, C down.
If the pattern completes, C could target ~62,513.
Quick pattern note (irregular flat): It’s a 3–3–5 structure — A = 3 waves, B = 3 waves (often pokes above the prior high), and C = 5 waves. On this chart, A and B already printed as 3 + 3. The setup isn’t confirmed until we see C unfold as a clear 5-wave move (1-2-3-4-5). No five-wave C = no completed irregular flat.
What would confirm it (the “if/then”)
Lose the first rising trend support (≈ 109k).
Then lose the second, deeper trend support.
If both break, the path toward ~62.5k could be opening up.
Between those two lines: BTC can go sideways for a weeks—that “range box” is important.
Why the range box matters (Altseason meter)
Altcoins usually need steady BTC to fly:
BTC sideways (not spiking up or dumping).
TOTAL2 (alt mkt cap) breaks ATH.
BTC.D rolls over (dominance falls).
If these three line up, we’ve got a real altseason setup. If not, it’s noise.
Bottom line
This is a watchlist scenario, not gospel.
I’ll respect the levels: no break = no bear target.
If we range between supports, I’ll look for alt strength while BTC stays calm.
USDJPY: 150 INTERVENTION ZONE BATTLE! BoJ vs Bulls 🚀 USDJPY: 150 INTERVENTION ZONE BATTLE! BoJ vs Bulls 📊
Current Price: 149.521 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 ⏰
📈 INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days)
🎯 BULLISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: 149.20 - 149.60 📍
Stop Loss: 148.80 🛑
Target 1: 150.20 🎯
Target 2: 150.80 🚀
🎯 BEARISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: 149.80 - 150.20 📍
Stop Loss: 150.50 🛑
Target 1: 148.50 🎯
Target 2: 147.80 📉
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN
📊 KEY INDICATORS STATUS:
RSI (14): 68.7 ⚡ Overbought Territory
Bollinger Bands: Upper Band Rejection 🔥
VWAP: 149.30 - Critical Support 💪
EMA 20: 148.90 ✅ Bullish Trend Intact
Volume: Intervention Fears Rising 📊
🌊 WAVE ANALYSIS:
Elliott Wave: Wave 5 Extension Risk 🌊
Fibonacci Target: 150.50 Danger Zone 🎯
🔄 HARMONIC PATTERNS:
Bearish Bat Forming at 150.00 ✨
ABCD Completion Warning 🔄
⚖️ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks)
🚀 BULLISH TARGETS:
Intervention Zone: 150.00-150.50 🏆
Extended Target: 151.00 🌙
Gann Resistance: 150.25 ⭐
📉 BEARISH INVALIDATION:
Weekly Support: 148.00 ⚠️
Critical Break: 147.00 🚨
🎭 MARKET STRUCTURE:
Trend: Parabolic Extension 💪
Momentum: Intervention Risk 🔥
Wyckoff Phase: Distribution Risk 📈
Ichimoku: Overbought Signals 🟡
🏛️ CENTRAL BANK DYNAMICS:
BoJ Intervention: 150 Trigger Level 🚨
Verbal Warnings: Intensifying 📢
USD Strength: Fed Policy Support 💵
Rate Differential: Widening 📊
⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT:
Max Risk per Trade: 40 pips 🛡️
R:R Ratio: Conservative 1:1.5 ⚖️
Intervention Alert: Above 149.80 📏
🌍 FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS:
Fed Hawkishness vs BoJ Dovish 🏦
US Yields Supporting USD 📈
Japan CPI Remaining Low 📊
Tokyo Session High Volatility 🗾
🔥 INTERVENTION WATCH:
BoJ Trigger: 150.00 Level 💥
Historical Pattern: Verbal → Action 📉
Risk/Reward: Deteriorating 📉
⚠️ DANGER ZONE LEVELS:
Intervention Risk: 149.80+ 🚨
Support: 149.00 | 148.50 | 148.00 🛡️
Resistance: 150.00 | 150.50 | 151.00 🚧
🎯 FINAL VERDICT:
USDJPY at CRITICAL 150 BATTLE! 🚀
BoJ intervention risk MAXIMUM! ⚠️
Bulls vs Central Bank showdown! ⚔️
Trade Management: Reduce size near 150! 💰
Alert Level: 149.80 intervention warning! 🚨
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⚠️ Disclaimer: High intervention risk. Use tight stops. Educational analysis only.
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
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GBP/JPY - Multi timeframe Analysis (We are ready to sell off)🔥 GBP/JPY – Forecast Breakdown 🔥
Alright traders, let’s slice this beast up 👇
🕰 Weekly View
We’re chilling right inside that weekly supply zone after sweeping the BSL. Price already showed signs of exhaustion here, and the structure screams: "Yo, we might dip." If sellers hold this fort, the swing could correct toward the mid-190s — right where demand is waiting.
📅 Daily Structure
Daily chart shows price running liquidity above 200/201 and tapping into resistance. BOS candles already printed earlier in the leg up, so this could be the last stop hunt before a deeper pullback. Daily demand sits 197 – 196, prime snack zone 🍫 for buyers to reload.
⏱ 4H Breakdown
On the 4H, we’ve got:
71% fib reaction ✅
BOS and liquidity sweep above 200.5
Market tapping into a 4H supply zone
That’s textbook SMC (smart money concepts) for a reversal play. Expectation? A possible short run back into 198 – 197, lining up with the daily zone.
🎯 Summary
Weekly : Tapped supply, sellers flexing 💪
Daily : Liquidity grab above 200, correction eyed
4H : 71% retrace + supply reaction, bearish pressure building
Bias → Short-term bearish targeting 198 – 197. Watch for rejections at current levels, but if buyers somehow break above 202, then the short idea is invalidated.
⚠️ Risk note: Stay nimble, this pair moves like a rocket 🚀 and can hunt stops fast.
XAUUSD: Rally will Continue after CorrectionHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup.
Market Analysis
The prior Upward Channel has been broken, and the price is now trading below a major Trend Line, indicating that the strong bullish momentum has paused and the market has entered a corrective phase.
Currently, this corrective phase has taken the form of a horizontal Range or consolidation above the Support 2 level. The price has been oscillating between local support and resistance, and is now making another move down towards the bottom of this Range for what I see as a critical test.
My Scenario & Strategy
I'm looking for the price to complete its correction down into Support zone. A confirmed bounce from this area would be the first signal that the pullback is over. The next key step would be a breakout from the top of the current Range.
Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this bounce. A successful breakout from the Range would validate the long scenario. The primary target for the subsequent rally is 3825, which aims for a retest of the major broken Trend Line from below.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.






















