AR/USDT — Major Reversal or the Start of Breakdown?ARWEAVE (AR/USDT) is now standing on the edge of its most critical support zone between $4.4–$3.7 (highlighted in yellow).
This zone has acted as a major historical demand area since 2023 — the last stronghold where institutional accumulation often takes place.
But this time, the market has shown something different:
A deep wick below $3.7 indicates a massive liquidity grab, suggesting that the market might have flushed out weak long positions and stop orders before deciding its next major move.
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Technical Structure & Pattern
Macro trend: Still in a structural downtrend since early 2024 (lower highs and lower lows).
Key support zone: $4.4–$3.7 remains a major reaction area that has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure.
The long wick below support suggests a potential fake breakdown or bear trap, especially if price reclaims $4.4–$6.0 in the next few candles.
Failure to hold above $3.7 would confirm a bearish continuation pattern and shift market sentiment further downward.
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Bullish Scenario
📈 Accumulation Reversal Setup
If price successfully holds above $4.4–$3.7 and manages to close above $6.075, it could mark the beginning of a mid-term reversal.
This setup is often accompanied by strong volume spikes, bullish engulfing candles, and a new higher low formation above the support.
🎯 Upside Targets:
Target 1: $8.395 — first major resistance and reaction zone.
Target 2: $10.882 — key breakout confirmation level.
Long-term targets: $26.989 and $47.674, if the macro reversal strengthens into a new bullish cycle.
This could become the foundation of a re-accumulation phase, similar to previous cycle bottoms.
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Bearish Scenario
📉 Final Breakdown and Capitulation Risk
If the price closes a 5D candle below $3.7 and fails to reclaim the zone, it would confirm that the yellow block has turned into a new resistance area.
This would signal a final distribution phase before potential capitulation.
🎯 Downside Targets:
Target 1: $3.0 — next psychological and structural support.
Target 2: $2.4 — historical low based on previous liquidity sweep.
A confirmed breakdown below this zone could trigger capitulation, flushing out remaining long positions before the next accumulation cycle begins.
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Conclusion
ARWEAVE is currently at a make-or-break zone ($4.4–$3.7) that will define its medium-term direction.
If buyers defend this level, the market could form a strong base for a major reversal.
However, if the support gives way, AR might revisit $3.0–$2.4 before finding a true bottom.
This zone represents a high-stakes battle between bulls and bears —
and the next few candles will decide whether we’re witnessing the birth of a new uptrend, or the continuation of the final downtrend leg.
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