AUDUSD Breakout Retest as Dollar Weakens!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are monitoring AUDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.66000 zone. The pair previously traded within a downtrend but has successfully broken out, signaling a shift in market structure.
Price is now in a healthy corrective phase, retracing toward the 0.66000 support zone, which aligns with prior resistance turned support — a classic breakout–retest setup.
Fundamental backdrop:
The US Dollar remains under pressure following softer macro conditions and fading expectations of sustained Fed hawkishness. Recent data continues to point toward a cooling US labor market, reinforcing a weaker USD environment and improving the risk-reward profile for AUDUSD on pullbacks.
Focus: Watching price behavior around 0.66000 for confirmation of bullish continuation.
Trade safe,
Joe
Aud
AUDUSD at Decision Point — Trend or Trap?Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are monitoring AUDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.66200 zone.
Structure:
AUDUSD remains in a well-defined uptrend, and price is currently undergoing a healthy pullback toward the rising trend structure. The 0.66200 area stands out as a key zone of confluence, acting as both dynamic trend support and a prior reaction level.
Context:
As long as price holds above this level, the broader bullish structure remains intact, keeping the path open for a continuation toward recent highs.
Plan:
Watching for bullish reaction and confirmation around 0.66200 before considering continuation setups.
Trade safe,
Joe
AUDUSD - Future OutlookHistorical Retrospective:
Feb 2012 - mid-Mar 2020: clear technical five-wave impulsive move down.
Mid-Mar 2020 - Feb 2021: wave A , a corrective impulsive move.
Feb 2021 - present: wave B , a three-wave correction.
Expectation:
Wave C - a five-wave corrective impulse upward.
Targets:
From the current level (wave C underway): 0.84
From the end of the impulsive move: 0.80
Summary:
We are close to a reversal or have already completed it, with a strong upward move expected next.
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Falling towards pullback support?Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6573
1st Support: 0.6516
1st Resistance: 0.6647
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Bearish drop off?AUD/CHF is reacting off the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.91626
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Stop loss: 0.91861
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 0.91181
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 100% Fibonacci projection.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
NZD/AUD Forecast: The Climb to 0.90 Amid Diverging Rates
Current Status: The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has stabilized against the Australian Dollar (AUD), trading at 0.8728 . After bottoming near 0.86 in November, the cross is recovering, driven by a recalibration of interest rate expectations and shifting economic currents.
Macroeconomic Analysis: The Central Bank Divergence
A primary driver of the NZD/AUD recovery is the reassessment of monetary policy trajectories. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) faces persistent domestic inflation, tempering expectations for aggressive rate cuts. Conversely, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 3.60% in December, maintaining a hawkish stance due to upside inflation risks. This narrowing policy gap, where the RBNZ is no longer significantly "out-dovin" the RBA, provides crucial support for the Kiwi dollar.
Geostrategy & Geopolitics: The China Factor
Both currencies remain sensitive to Chinese economic stability, but their exposure differs significantly. The AUD serves as a liquid proxy for Chinese industrial demand, facing volatility as Beijing recalibrates stimulus measures for 2026. In contrast, the NZD ties closely to soft commodities like dairy and meat, which see resilient demand despite broader geopolitical friction. As trade routes stabilize, lower volatility in New Zealand's export markets contributes to the currency's "safe harbor" appeal relative to the risk-sensitive Aussie.
Industry Trends: AgTech vs. Mining Tech
New Zealand’s shift toward high-margin agricultural technology (AgTech) is altering its export profile. Innovation in sustainable farming and automated dairy processing boosts productivity, offsetting headwinds from traditional commodity price fluctuations. Meanwhile, Australia’s mining sector grapples with high capital costs for green energy transitions. This structural divergence suggests New Zealand’s export economy is entering a phase of higher efficiency, supporting long-term valuation.
Economics: The Housing Market Constraints
Economic resilience is visible in the housing sector. Australian data indicates a 7.2% rise in home values since early 2025, driven by supply shortages. This "wealth effect" keeps consumption high, forcing the RBA to stay restrictive. New Zealand’s housing market shows more balanced supply-demand dynamics. This stability allows the RBNZ more flexibility, potentially reducing the risk of a policy error that could devalue the currency.
Forecast: The Path to 0.90
Current projections estimate the NZD/AUD cross will climb toward 0.90 by early 2027 . This forecast assumes a gradual normalization of the interest rate differential. The recovery will likely be non-linear; periods of Australian dollar strength are inevitable if global risk sentiment spikes. However, as the easing cycle proves shallower than feared and the RBA eventually pivots, the fundamental floor for the NZD is expected to rise.
Conclusion: The NZD/AUD is no longer trapped in a one-way bearish trend. Investors should watch the spread between Australian and New Zealand 2-year swap rates as the key indicator for the next leg higher.
Bullish continuation?Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback suport and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6584
1st Support: 0.6484
1st Resistance: 0.6707
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
AUDUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Off Swing HighMomentum: Bullish
The price is reacting off the sell entry, which has been identified as a swing high resistance.
Sell entry: 0.6682
Swing high resistance
161.8% Fibonacci extension
Stop loss: 0.6716
161.8% Fibonacci extension
Take profit: 0.6615
Overlap suport
Slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Bearish reversal off 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/AUD is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.7673
1st Support: 1.7550
1st Resistance: 1.7754
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Bullish bounce off?AUD/NZD is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1453
1st Support: 1.1429
1st Resistance: 1.1502
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
AUDUSD on its most important week of the past 5 years.The AUDUSD pair has been trading on a strong bearish trend under the heavy Resistance pressure of the 5-year Lower Highs trend-line, which just broke above it this week.
This is the most critical multi-year test for the pair as a weekly closing above the Lower Highs trend-line, thus the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) also which has been intact since Jan 2023, will place the market on a new potentially long-term bullish trend.
If it closes below the Lowe Highs trend-line though, that would be the most optimal sell signal to target the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 0.60700.
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Bullish continuation?Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6611
1st Support: 0.6580
1st Resistance: 0.6648
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Falling towards pullback support?AUD/CHF is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.52861
Why we like it:
There is pullback support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.52492
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.5356
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Look for REJECTION with AUDUSDAUD/USD Daily Analysis
Pair: Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD)
Timeframe: 1 Day (1D)
Data Source: FXCM
Key Levels:
Open: 0.66406
High: 0.66859
Low: 0.66288
Close: 0.66763
Change: +0.00357 (+0.54%)
Analysis:
The AUD/USD closed higher today, up 0.54% to 0.66763. The pair demonstrated a bullish momentum, with price action climbing from a low of 0.66288 to a session high of 0.66859. This uptick could signal renewed buying interest in the pair, with the daily close above the opening suggesting a positive sentiment among traders.
What to Watch:
Resistance may be found near the recent high at 0.66859. A break above this level could push the AUD/USD towards further gains.
Support is situated near 0.66288. If the price reverses, this may be a key area to watch for a bounce.
Outlook:
Traders should look for confirmation of continuation or a reversal near today's high and low. Keep an eye on macroeconomic developments and U.S. dollar trends for further directional clues.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
Bullish continuation?AUD/CHF could fall to the pivot which his a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.53074
1st Support: 0.52750
1st Resistance: 0.53891
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Bearish reversal?AUD/NZD is reacting off the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the overlap support.
Pivot: 1.15142
1st Support: 1.14533
1st Resistance: 1.15608
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
AUDUSD moves sideways after the RBA holds rates steady
The RBA turned hawkish after holding the rate at 3.60%. The central bank acknowledged that inflation risks have increased despite three rate cuts since Feb, noting that recovering demand and rising wages are making it more difficult to return inflation to the target.
Governor Bullock emphasized that the RBA remains focused on inflation and signaled that, if price pressures persist, the bank may need to take appropriate action.
With policy divergence widening between the Fed and the RBA, the aussie dollar may continue to appreciate against the US dollar.
AUDUSD slightly broke below the ascending channel's lower bound before consolidating within the range of 0.6620–0.6650. The price remains above bullish EMAs, indicating a potential uptrend extension.
If AUDUSD reenters the ascending channel, the price may retest the following resistance at 0.6650.
Conversely, if AUDUSD breaks below EMA21 and the support at 0.6620, the price may retreat toward the next support at 0.6580.
How I Spot Trading Opportunity?Today, I will share the trading aspect—specifically how we can quickly spot opportunities using a simple structure.
During a studio interview earlier this week, I was asked about my preference between investing and trading.
I answered promptly: if both work, why limit myself to only one? I enjoy both trading and investing.
Similarly, I often receive question which market is the best for trading?
If you already have a trading methodology that you’re confident in, why restrict yourself to just one market or product? Cast the net as wide, applying the same trading concept across different markets to narrow down the best trade for the day.
Australia Dollar
Ticker: 6A
Minimum fluctuation:
0.00005 per AUD increment = $5.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
AUDUSD Set to Rally as Dollar Softens Ahead of Fed Cut!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a buying opportunity around the 0.66000 zone.
AUDUSD is trading in an uptrend and is currently in a correction phase in which it is approaching the 0.66000 support and resistance area.
On the fundamental side, the U.S. Dollar continues to weaken as markets front-run the expected Fed rate cut, and traders increasingly price in a more dovish policy stance going into the next FOMC meeting.
This broad Dollar softness supports upside momentum on AUDUSD, especially as risk sentiment improves.
Trade safe,
Joe.
AUD/CNY: Are Rates Hiding a Deeper Revolution?
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has shown remarkable resilience against the Chinese Yuan (CNY) in late 2025, driven by a complex interplay of monetary steadfastness and strategic trade realignments. Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to hold the cash rate at 3.6% a "hawkish hold" signaling persistent inflation concerns, the AUD/CNY pair is reacting not just to interest rate differentials, but to deeper structural shifts in the global economy.
Macroeconomics: The Divergence Trade
The primary driver remains the divergence in monetary policy. The RBA’s decision to maintain rates at 3.6% contrasts sharply with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which continues to battle deflationary pressures with liquidity injections.
RBA Stance: With inflation easing but "sticky" in service sectors, the RBA refuses to pivot to cuts, effectively setting a floor for the AUD.
China’s Reality: Despite a surprising 5.7% jump in exports in November 2025, China's domestic demand remains tepid. This pushes the PBOC to keep the Yuan relatively loose to support the export engine, inadvertently strengthening the AUD/CNY cross.
Geopolitics & Geostrategy: The "Fragile Thaw"
The geopolitical landscape has shifted from hostility to a pragmatic "fragile thaw." The removal of the final trade barriers on Australian exports, such as rock lobster, has reopened and improved capital flows. However, the strategic environment remains tense.
Strategic hedging: Australia is balancing its largest trading partner (China) with its primary security partner (the USA).
AUKUS Factor: Defense alliances continue to create underlying friction, ensuring that while trade flows, political trust remains low.
Industry Trends & Science: The Green Steel Revolution
A critical driver for the AUD is the transformation of the iron ore trade. It is no longer just about volume; it is about quality suitable for "green steel."
Science of Decarbonization: Low-grade ore is insufficient for hydrogen-based steelmaking. Australia’s high-grade hematite is becoming a premium scientific input for China’s decarbonization targets.
December 2025 MoU: The recent signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on steel decarbonization between Canberra and Beijing highlights this technological interdependence.
High-Tech & Patent Analysis: Critical Minerals
The narrative has shifted from bulk commodities to strategic tech inputs. Australia is not just shipping dirt; it is supplying the inputs for high-tech dominance.
Zirconium & Lithium: These minerals are essential for nuclear energy, hypersonic missile components, and EV batteries.
Patent Implications: As China advances its high-tech patent portfolio in renewable energy, it becomes increasingly dependent on Australian raw materials that meet specific purity standards. This reliance underpins the AUD's value as a "proxy" for global tech supply chains.
Cyber & Technology: Protecting the Supply Chain
With the integration of AI and automation in mining (e.g., Rio Tinto’s autonomous trains), cyber resilience has become a tier-one priority.
IP Protection: Australian mining tech is proprietary. Protecting the data streams of autonomous logistics from state-sponsored cyber espionage is now a board-level issue.
Export Controls: Tighter export controls on "strategic technologies" ensure that while Australia sells the minerals, it protects the processing IP, adding a premium to the Australian mining sector's valuation.
Leadership & Business Models: The ESG Pivot
Australian corporate leadership has pivoted business models from "dig-and-ship" to "value-driven partnerships."
Culture of Compliance: Management teams are prioritizing ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) credentials to meet both Western investor demands and Chinese regulatory requirements for lower-carbon inputs.
Innovation: Companies are investing heavily in on-site beneficiation (processing ore to higher grades), fundamentally changing the value proposition and supporting the currency through higher-margin exports.
Conclusion: A Currency of Complexity
The AUD/CNY increase is not a simple story of interest rates. It is the result of Australia successfully navigating a geopolitical tightrope while upgrading its industrial base to meet the scientific demands of a decarbonizing world. Traders must watch not just the RBA, but the flow of high-tech minerals and the evolving diplomatic dance between Beijing and Canberra.
K ey Takeaway: The AUD is evolving from a "risk-on" commodity currency into a "strategic resource" currency. Trade it with an eye on geopolitical headlines as much as economic data.
EURAUD: Short After Break!Next week we are going to have important news for AUSSIE. If it aligns with our analysis, we will short the pair after breaking below the PURPLE level of 1.7550!
Regarding the EQUAL daily levels, we have seen a great reaction and wait for more bearish moves!
This is a great ZONE we are facing now!
We see that the last bearish move was considerably STRONG!
We expect a break below the zone; I'll put my orders then!






















