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Can The Yen Fight Inflation While Rates Stay Low?The AUD/JPY currency pair's surge above 101.00 is a direct result of two opposite forces. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strong because inflation is unexpectedly high, forcing the RBA to keep its interest rate at 3.60%. This high rate attracts global investment, as traders move money to Australia for better returns. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak because the BoJ maintains an extremely low interest rate, near zero, to boost its economy. This wide gap in rates makes the AUD/JPY a favorite for the "Carry Trade," where investors earn the difference, pushing the pair higher. Beyond just interest rates, geopolitics is playing a crucial role. The recent US-China trade deal, which saw a truce on certain tariffs and export controls on rare earth minerals, strongly benefits the commodity-linked AUD. Australia is a major exporter of these minerals. This trade calm reduces global risk and boosts demand for Australian goods. Conversely, the JPY suffers from political choices, as Japan's new government plans aggressive spending. This combination of low rates and high spending ensures the JPY remains weak, reinforcing the strong case for continued AUD/JPY strength.
Long
by the5erstrading
1
MASTERCLASS: INTRADAY & SWING TRADE AUDUSD 🦘 AUDUSD (0.66112) - COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL MASTERCLASS: INTRADAY & SWING TRADE BLUEPRINT 🦘 October 27-31, 2025 | Advanced Multi-Timeframe Trading Forecast 🎯 MARKET OVERVIEW & ANALYSIS SCOPE 🎯 Current Spot Price: 0.66112 | Analysis Date: Oct 25, 2025 | Timeframes: 5M-1D Complete Spectrum | Trading Style: Intraday Scalp + Swing Trade | Conviction: Medium-High ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 1. MULTI-TIMEFRAME TREND STRUCTURE & DOW THEORY VALIDATION 📊 🔍 Daily (1D) Timeframe - Primary Market Direction The 1D chart exhibits mixed consolidation with bearish undertone . Dow Theory framework shows LOWER HIGHS pattern emerging (0.6640 → 0.6620 → 0.6615), signaling potential downtrend initiation. Elliott Wave structure suggests completion of 5-wave impulse (up) targeting reversal near 0.6580-0.6600 levels. RSI reading 48-52 (neutral zone, showing weakness as bearish bias forms). VWAP at 0.6605 acting as temporary support with breach implications downward. ⏰ 4H Timeframe - Swing Trade Risk Structure Four-hourly demonstrates bearish flag formation with downside target potential . Price consolidating below 0.6625 resistance after failed breakout attempts. Bollinger Bands tightening (squeeze pattern)—volatility expansion imminent. RSI declining from 55 to 48 range (bearish momentum deterioration). Ichimoku Cloud configuration: price trapped between Kijun-sen (resistance) & Senkou Span B (dynamic support)—indecision zone. Downside target: 0.6580-0.6560. 🔥 1H to 5M Intraday Setup - Micro Timeframe Dynamics One-hour shows head-and-shoulders pattern developing with neckline at 0.6610. Left shoulder complete (0.6625), head forming (0.6620), right shoulder declining (0.6618). Harmonic pattern: Bearish Bat identified at 0.6595 (D-point) suggesting short entry opportunity. 30M timeframe displays EMA50 crossing below EMA200 (bearish crossover just initiated). Volume declining on attempted rallies = selling pressure dominance. 5M shows bear trap formation near 0.6625—trapping bullish retailers before reversal. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 2. ENTRY & EXIT PROTOCOL + WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION PHASE 🎯 SWING TRADE SHORT ENTRIES (4H/1D): Sell breakdown below 0.6610 (H&S neckline) with stop @ 0.6635 (Risk:Reward 1:3 minimum). Wyckoff Distribution phase activated—institutional selling pressure accumulating. Target: 0.6560-0.6540 (swing trade 3-5 days hold). INTRADAY SHORT SCALPS (5M/15M/30M): Multiple entry opportunities: (1) Head-and-shoulders neckline break = 0.6610 entry | (2) Bearish Bat PRZ completion = 0.6595-0.6590 aggressive short | (3) EMA crossover rejection on 30M = 0.6615-0.6620 pullback short entry. PRIMARY PROFIT TARGETS: 1D: 0.6560 | 4H: 0.6575 | 1H: 0.6600 | 30M: 0.6610 (quick 15-20 pip scalp gains) | Extended: 0.6540 (major support level). STOP LOSS PLACEMENT STRATEGY: Swing shorts: 0.6640 (above H&S left shoulder) | Intraday: 0.6625 (tight 15-20 pip stops) | Trail stops below Bollinger Band upper band as price descends. 💡 Pro Trading Tip: Use Ichimoku Kijun-sen (26-period) as dynamic resistance/stop level. Lock profits at each support zone identified via Gann angles. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ 3. REVERSAL SIGNALS & JAPANESE CANDLESTICK PATTERN ANALYSIS ⚡ ✅ BEARISH REVERSAL CONFIRMATIONS: Engulfing pattern visible on 30M chart—red candle engulfing previous green (seller dominance confirmed). Shooting star candlestick near 0.6625 (failed rally rejection). Dark cloud cover pattern on 1H signals seller takeover at highs. Head-and-shoulders neckline (0.6610) acts as critical reversal zone. Ichimoku Chikou Span trading BELOW price action = confirmed bearish structure. Stochastic showing bearish divergence (lower highs on RSI/price higher highs). ⛔ BULLISH REVERSAL WARNINGS & BULL TRAP IDENTIFICATION: Bull trap currently IN PROGRESS near 0.6625 resistance—retailers buying resistance, institutions distributing. If price breaks above 0.6630 with declining volume, false breakout confirmed. Morning Star pattern absent—no reversal higher probability. VWAP rejection combined with closing below 0.6610 = strong bearish confirmation. Gann resistance at 0.6640 acts as major distribution zone where selling accelerates. ⚠️ CRITICAL LEVEL: 0.6610 (H&S neckline) = REVERSAL THRESHOLD. Break below = Bearish Continuation | Hold above with volume = Bull trap intact ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔴 4. BREAKDOWN DYNAMICS & BEARISH PATTERN FORMATIONS 🔴 ✅ PRIMARY BEARISH BREAKDOWN SCENARIO (65% PROBABILITY): Head-and-shoulders breakdown below 0.6610 neckline on 1H timeframe with volume confirmation (need 20%+ volume spike below average). Elliott Wave target: 0.6540-0.6500 (5th wave decline in new downtrend cycle). Bollinger Band lower band at 0.6560 = natural extension target. Measured move from pattern: H&S height (0.6625-0.6610 = 15 pips) projected downward = 0.6595 target. 🔷 HARMONIC PATTERN PRECISION DOWNSIDE TARGETS: Bearish Bat pattern (XA:BC 0.618) D-point entry: 0.6595 with target 0.6540 (161.8% extension downward). Bearish Butterfly on 4H suggesting potential extended move to 0.6480 (extreme scenario). Crab pattern confluence identifies 0.6570 as intermediate support-bounce zone. ⚠️ BULLISH PATTERN - FALLING WEDGE (BULL TRAP) (35% PROBABILITY): If price holds above 0.6610, 4H chart displays falling wedge formation that could breakout bullishly to 0.6650+. Stochastic confluence on 1H indicates potential bounce setup. However, volume analysis suggests limited upside conviction. Bear trap possible if institutions accumulate after distribution climax. Watch for climactic volume spike—wedge collapse likely either direction. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📉 5. VOLATILITY METRICS & PRICE ACTION COMPRESSION 📉 🌊 Bollinger Bands - Critical Squeeze Signal: Band width compressing to 180 pips on 1D (lowest in 12 days)—explosive volatility breakout imminent within 36-48 hours. Intraday Bollinger Bands (5M/15M/30M) showing initial expansion toward lower band—bearish volatility thesis strengthening. Price approaching lower Bollinger Band (0.6580) = oversold setup potential or trend continuation signal depending on volume. 📍 SUPPORT & RESISTANCE ARCHITECTURE: MAJOR RESISTANCE ZONES: 0.6630 (Bull trap distribution level) | 0.6625 (Recent swing high) | 0.6640 (Gann angle resistance) | 0.6650 (Weekly pivot) CRITICAL SUPPORT LEVELS: 0.6610 (H&S neckline/VWAP area) | 0.6595 (Harmonic D-point) | 0.6575 (4H support) | 0.6560 (Bollinger lower band) | 0.6540 (Major support) VWAP PROFILE: Daily VWAP: 0.6605 (trending downward) | Weekly VWAP: 0.6615 (secondary resistance) 📊 Moving Average Divergence - Bearish Alignment: EMA 50 below EMA 200 on 1H/4H (bearish structure forming). SMA 20 crossing below SMA 50 on 30M = momentum deterioration signal. 5M chart: EMA50 recently crossed below EMA200—intraday downtrend initiation confirmed. Price trading BELOW all major moving averages = weakness confirmed. Wyckoff Distribution phase in progress—institutional selling continuing. 🎯 OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD CONDITIONS & MOMENTUM EXHAUSTION: RSI Status: 48-52 range (neutral sliding toward oversold)—RSI approaching 40 = potential for capitulation move lower. Stochastic on 15M: Declining from 55 toward 30 zone = bearish momentum acceleration. Ichimoku RSI below midline transitioning lower—downside potential significant. CCI on 5M declining below zero (strong bearish momentum without extreme oversold exhaustion). Fast Stochastic declining toward 20 level—room for extended downside run. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎓 6. ADVANCED TECHNICAL THEORY INTEGRATION & FRAMEWORKS 🎓 ⭐ ELLIOTT WAVE STRUCTURE: 5-wave impulse (up) completed near 0.6625 | Wave A (down) declining toward 0.6595-0.6540 | Correction target: 50% retracement = 0.6575 | Extended target: 161.8% extension = 0.6480 maximum (9-12 trading days) ⭐ GANN THEORY APPLICATION: 45-degree angle resistance @ 0.6640 (broken support becomes resistance) | Square of Nine support @ 0.6540 | Time-Price intersection: 6-8 trading days for major swing completion | Gann fan support @ 0.6560 ⭐ WYCKOFF METHODOLOGY - DISTRIBUTION PHASE: Spring pattern failed (no spring reversal) = Distribution confirmation | Markup phase ended, Distribution phase INITIATED | Test & Decline pattern active = institutional distribution continuing | Expected breakdown: 0.6595-0.6540 over 5-7 trading days | Climax alert: Watch for volume spike + wide range candle = distribution completion ⭐ DOW THEORY BEARISH CONFIRMATION: Lower highs: 0.6640 → 0.6625 → 0.6620 | Lower lows: 0.6590 → 0.6585 | Volume declining on rallies = downtrend validation | Trend now firmly bearish-biased ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✨ COMPLETE TRADING ACTION PLAN ✨ 🔴 PRIMARY BEARISH SCENARIO (65% Probability): Entry Zone: 0.6610 (H&S breakdown) or 0.6615-0.6620 (pullback short) Stop Loss: 0.6640 | Target 1: 0.6595 | Target 2: 0.6575 | Target 3: 0.6560 Risk/Reward: 1:3+ | Hold Duration: Swing (3-5 days) + Intraday scalp (1-3 hours) Conviction Level: 65% | Setup Quality: Premium Bearish | Volume: Confirming 🟢 SECONDARY BULLISH SCENARIO (35% Probability - Contingency): Trigger: Hold above 0.6625 + Stochastic bounce + Volume expansion upward Entry: 0.6630 long | Stop: 0.6610 | Target: 0.6650 (bounce setup only) Probability: 35% (Lower conviction bull trap risk) | Pattern: Falling wedge breakout ⏱️ TIMEFRAME STRATEGY HIERARCHY: 1D (macro structure) + 4H (swing foundation) + 1H (entry confirmation) + 15M/5M (execution precision) 💰 POSITION SIZING & RISK RULES: Risk max 1-2% portfolio per trade | Scale shorts on 50% pullbacks toward 0.6625 | Trail stops above Bollinger upper band 🔔 PRICE ALERT SYSTEM: Sell signal @ 0.6610 (neckline break) | Stop loss alarm @ 0.6640 | Take profit 1 @ 0.6595 | Full target @ 0.6560 | Extended @ 0.6540 📱 EXECUTION BLUEPRINT: Aggressive breakdown entries (30% position) + Patient pullback shorts (70% position) = risk-balanced approach | Scale out profits at each support zone ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT: Bull trap alert at 0.6625-0.6630 | Volume confirmation mandatory on entry | Trail stops religiously | Close to breakeven if volume fails ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚖️ COMPLIANCE DISCLAIMER: This analysis provided for educational & information purposes ONLY. NOT financial/investment advice. All trading carries substantial risk of loss. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. Always implement proper risk management. Consult qualified financial advisors before trading. Past performance ≠ future results. Markets unpredictable.
by sunya
RBA September 2025: Hawkish Tilt vs August - Shorted EURAUDNow that we have the 30 Sept 2025 RBA statement, here’s a side-by-side comparison with the prior (August) statement, highlighting the specific new remarks, data changes, and tone shifts that matter for markets in the short term. Key Differences: September vs August Inflation August: Inflation had eased into the 2–3% band, with underlying momentum lower, helped by rebates and easing pressures. September: “The decline in underlying inflation has slowed… recent data suggest Q3 inflation may be higher than expected.” 🔹 New: Clearer warning that disinflation is stalling, with upside surprise risk. This is a hawkish tilt, raising doubt about how quickly the RBA will cut again. Domestic demand & growth August: Growth outlook was subdued, public demand dominant, consumption weak, risks tilted to downside. September: “Private demand is recovering… private consumption is picking up as real household incomes rise… housing market is strengthening.” 🔹 New: Stronger domestic recovery narrative. This is a shift away from a purely dovish, weak-growth picture, suggesting easing might not need to be as aggressive. Labor market August: Labor conditions softening somewhat, unemployment ~4.3%, some easing in demand. September: “Labor market conditions broadly steady… unemployment unchanged at 4.2%, underutilization low… wages growth has eased, but productivity weak and unit labor costs high.” 🔹 New: Balanced message — employment growth slowed, but overall labor market remains tight. The mention of unit labor costs high is a hawkish insertion, as it points to sticky wage-price dynamics. Global risks August: Emphasized uncertainty, trade headwinds, geopolitical risks, downside to global demand. September: “More clarity on US tariffs — extreme outcomes avoided, but still adverse effect expected… geopolitical risks remain.” 🔹 New: Slightly more optimistic (less extreme trade risks), but still cautious. Market read: less urgent downside risk, neutral for AUD. Policy stance / guidance August: Dovish, emphasized “data dependency,” readiness to act, conditional forward guidance. September: “Signs that demand is recovering, inflation may be persistent in some areas, labor market stable… appropriate to remain cautious… policy well placed to respond if needed.” 🔹 New: Stronger caution against rushing into more cuts. Less dovish than before, reinforcing a wait-and-see bias. Tone shift: Compared to August, the September statement is less dovish. It highlights stronger domestic demand, slower disinflation, and sticky unit labor costs. Implication: This reduces near-term probability of another immediate cut. Markets may pare back November cut expectations slightly. AUD reaction: Near term (this week and next), AUD likely supported on dips, especially if global risk sentiment doesn’t collapse. AUD currency crosses may see AUD outperformance, while AUDUSD may remain also supported but also more dependent on USD drivers. Unless we see a major surprise from U.S. Jobs data I will remain short with minimum target at 1.7593 If you have any questions don't hesitate to drop them in the comments below.
Short
by Trading_Stream
AUUDSD: Sells? Wait For It... Wait For It...!Sept 17 marked the Swing High, taking out buy side liquidity. We've been in retracement since then. The structure looks to be turning bearish. Combine that with the strength of the US Dollar versus the current weakness in the AUD... look for an opportunity to sell, my people. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Short
by RT_Money
7
COH Re-Entry Setup: High Dividend Play With Upside PotentialCochlear (ASX: COH) continues to stand out as one of the premier dividend stocks on the ASX, currently paying A$2.15 per share semi-annually (A$4.30 annually). With the next ex-dividend date falling on 18 September 2025, investors who accumulate positions within the coming weeks can secure strong passive income while also positioning for potential capital growth. This dividend flow adds a layer of consistency to the portfolio, making COH a defensive yet opportunistic play in uncertain markets. Unlike many high-growth names, COH offers a blend of stability and upside potential, which is attractive for investors aiming to compound both yield and price appreciation. From a technical perspective, COH has cleanly respected the weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG), offering a well-defined buy zone between A$276.05 – A$291.70. This zone aligns with a retracement into structural demand, giving confluence for a high-probability long setup. Should price continue to hold above this level, the next logical upside targets sit around A$350+, with intermediate liquidity resting at A$322.75. Price has built significant buyside liquidity pools above prior highs, which the market tends to seek in order to rebalance inefficiencies. For dividend-focused investors, this setup is especially compelling — not only is there steady income from the semi-annual payout, but also the possibility of capturing 30%+ capital growth from current levels. COH therefore provides a dual benefit: reliable cash returns and strong technical momentum that could fuel a multi-month rally.
ASX:COHLong
by INSIDER_INTEL
2
AUD/USD Long Trade Setup – Buying at the Channel LowOANDA:AUDUSD 🔍 Technical Overview: The pair is trading within a well-defined ascending channel. A potential bullish reversal is forming at the confluence of: Channel support Local structural support (highlighted in orange circle) Bullish wick rejections and slowing downside momentum 📈 Trade Idea: BUY AUD/USD Entry: Market buy or buy near 0.6450 – 0.6465 Stop-Loss: Below the swing low and channel support at 0.64160 Target 1: 0.65150 Target 2: 0.6566 Target 3: 0.66160 Risk-to-Reward: ~1:3 R:R ratio Monitor price action near mid-channel resistance 🧠 “If the structure speaks to you, let it echo.” – Let the price action confirm your bias before committing fully. Previous Sell Setup at the top of channel: Psychology Always Matters:
Long
by MJElahifx
1
Tuesday’s triple risk: Tariffs, RBA rate cut, and U.S. inflationTraders face a busy Tuesday with developments on U.S. China trade talks, a RBA policy decision, and the latest U.S. inflation data. U.S. China tariff deadline – Tuesday The current truce between the U.S. and China is set to expire on 12 August, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick indicating it will likely be extended by 90 days. China may also face an additional 25% tariff on Russian oil imports, like measures already applied to India. RBA announcement – Tuesday The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut rates, with a Reuters poll showing all 40 surveyed economists anticipating a 25bp reduction to 3.60%. The broader market is pricing a 98% probability of that outcome and a 2% chance of a larger 50bp cut. U.S. CPI – Tuesday Headline U.S. CPI for July is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month taking the annual rate to 2.8% from 2.7%. Wells Fargo notes that the figures may show further signs of higher tariffs feeding into consumer prices.
by BlackBull Markets
AUDUSD: Rate Cut Tuesday + Price At A Daily -FVG! Time To Sell?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 11 - 15 In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: AUDUSD AUDUSD has been difficult to trade, as it chops its slow grind upwards. Then last, although the week's trading range was small, the Weekly candle closed as a bearish Inside Bar. This, as price made contact with a -FVG! The scenario could be laying the ground work for a new bearish leg to form. Couple the above with an interest rate cut coming Tuesday for the AUD, and August being a historically bad month for the aussie, things could get real interesting for sellers next week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Short
by RT_Money
1
AUD eyes yield advantage over USD UBS strategists view the Australian dollar as a compelling long opportunity at current levels, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will ease policy more gradually than the U.S. Federal Reserve. The bank forecasts 75 basis points of rate cuts from the RBA through Q1 2026, compared to 100 basis points from the Fed—helping to preserve a relative yield advantage for the Aussie. On the daily chart, AUD/USD remains within a well-defined ascending channel that began in late 2024. The pair recently bounced off the lower boundary of the channel near 0.6450, with long lower wicks potentially indicating dip-buying interest. Immediate resistance could sit at 0.6600, followed by a major zone near 0.6670. A break above these levels could confirm bullish continuation.
by BlackBull Markets
AUDUSD Engineered to Drop?🧠MJTrading: 📸 Viewing Tip: 🛠️ Some layout elements may shift depending on your screen size. 🔗 View the fixed high-resolution chart here: 🔻 OANDA:AUDUSD – Tagged the Top | Smart Money Eyes Lower Levels?? 📍 Perfect Respect of Channel Structure AUDUSD has just kissed the upper boundary of a long-standing ascending channel, showing sharp rejection — a sign that premium pricing might now shift toward discount levels. 📈 The aggressive push into the highs likely aimed to clear buy stops — fulfilling smart money objectives before a potential reversal. 📉 And here’s the subtle clue: Just below the last bullish candle lies a thin slide — a structural weakness. If price breaks and closes below that full body bearish candle (Below 0.66000), the market could slip fast, unleashing a momentum-driven drop into the first liquidity zone (0.6520s). 🧠 For smart money lovers, this is the classic: Sweep → Trap → Slide 📏 And for fans of parallelism, the chart’s geometry offers a rare beauty — lines in harmony, structure in rhythm, and opportunity in alignment. 🔍 What to Watch For: Break below 0.66000 (last candle body) = entry signal 0.6520–0.6540: first liquidity zone 0.6400–0.6300: deeper cleanout, if bearish pressure sustains Inset: DXY bouncing from long-term demand supports bearish thesis Manage your risk wisely... For Lower time frame traders: Psychology Always Matters: (Click on the pictures for caption and concepts) #AUDUSD #SmartMoney #LiquiditySweep #ChannelTrading #ChartDesigner #MJTrading #PriceAction #Forex
Short
by MJElahifx
3
Aussie H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.6554 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 0.6525 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 0.6597 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
AUD/USD Bulls Eye BreakoutThe Australian Dollar surged more than 1.8% this week with AUD/USD now testing multi-month uptrend resistance at fresh yearly highs. A four-day rally takes price into confluent resistance at the September low / upper parallel at 6622- The focus is on today’s close with the immediate advance vulnerable while below this key slope. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2019 low at 6671 and the 78.6% retracement of the broader 2024 decline at 6723. Initial support rests with the July open at 6581 and is backed by the May high-day close (HDC) / weekly open at 6486-6506. Losses would need to be limited to this region for the late-June advance to remain viable (near-term bullish invalidation). Subsequent support seen at the June low-day close (LDC) at 6458 with a break below 6350 ultimately needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / larger reversal is underway. Bottom line: A breakout of the July opening-range takes AUD/USD into confluent uptrend resistance- risk for topside exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses shudl be limited to 6486 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this slope needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Keep in mind the FOMC interest rate decision is on tap next week with Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) slated into the monthly cross. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here. -MB
by FOREX.com
2
Australia faces a dilemma between inflation and labor slowdown The RBA, in its latest meeting minutes, emphasized that the recent rate hold reflects a cautious and gradual approach toward achieving its inflation target. While the central bank noted the need for further data to confirm a decline in inflation, some Board members flagged rising unemployment as a signal of potential labor market softening. Bloomberg added that Australia’s export-driven economy remains vulnerable to tariff-related uncertainties, while private demand growth remains sluggish. AUDUSD extended its uptrend after testing the low at 0.6455, reaching as high as 0.6560. Both EMAs narrow the gap, indicating a potential shift toward bullish momentum. If AUDUSD holds above both EMAs, the price could gain upward momentum toward the high at 0.6595. Conversely, if AUDUSD breaks below the support at 0.6540, the price may retreat toward 0.6510.
by inkicho_exness
Aussie H1 | Swing-high resistance at a 61.8% Fibo retracementThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 0.6531 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 0.6550 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 0.6490 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Aussie H4 | Overlap resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 0.6542 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 0.6585 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 0.6488 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
FFM -- ASX – Breakout Consolidation in Focus 📝 Description Firefly Metals is setting up a classic breakout continuation scenario after reclaiming the $1.00 psychological level and breaking the long-term trendline resistance. 🔹 Key Observations: • Trendline Break: The descending trendline from the prior high was decisively breached, signaling a structural shift. • Accumulation Zone: Price has consolidated in a tight range above $1.00, forming a bullish flag or box accumulation. • EMA Cluster Support: Both the 15 and 60 EMAs are aligned below the consolidation, providing dynamic support. 🔹 Potential Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Continuation: A clean breakout above the top of the blue box could trigger a momentum rally toward $1.30 and ultimately the $1.38–$1.50 resistance levels. ✅ Deeper Pullback: If price loses the $1.00 support decisively, a retracement to retest the breakout base is possible. Trade Plan: I am monitoring for a confirmed breakout candle with volume expansion to validate the continuation thesis. • Entry trigger above the range high ($1.10 area) • Stops below recent swing low / $1.00 level • First target: $1.30 resistance As always, risk management first—no breakout, no trade. #MJTrading #FFM #FireflyMetals #ASXTrading #BreakoutSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingPlan #ChartOfTheDay #AustralianStocks #MomentumTrading #MJTrading
ASX:FFMLong
by MJElahifx
AUDUSD: Short Setup Ahead of Key Data OANDA:AUDUSD AUDUSD is hovering near a rising trendline, with price action compressing and signaling a potential downside break in the coming sessions. Just above, the 0.65900 resistance zone has capped recent rallies, and the pair’s failure to clear this level strengthens the case for a reversal. Later today, we will see Westpac Consumer Confidence data for Australia, which could act as a catalyst for a sharp move. A weaker-than-expected print would likely pressure the Aussie further. 📋 Entry Checklist: ✅ Testing rising trendline, signaling potential breakdown ✅ Strong resistance at 0.65900 holding rallies ✅ Key consumer sentiment data could trigger volatility 📈 Trade Plan: 🔻 Sell Entry: 0.65600 ❌ Stop Loss: 0.66200 ✅ Take Profit: 0.65000 (Tap 👉 Trade Now 👈 on mobile to copy SL & TP easily) 📰 Fundamental Snapshot: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by holding rates steady at 3.85%, diverging from expectations of a potential cut. The RBA remains cautious amid persistent inflation risks driven by high labor costs and weak productivity, suggesting rates may stay restrictive longer. Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that inflation could remain above forecasts, while Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized monitoring global uncertainties, including U.S. tariff developments, reflecting the RBA’s sensitivity to external headwinds impacting growth and trade.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
1
Aussie: Still Growing! CAPITALCOM:AUDUSD The bullish momentum continues after our last successful AUDUSD setup, and a move toward the 0.65900 resistance area looks probable now. 🪙 My Trading Plan: 🔼 BUY Stop: 0.65648 ❌ Stop Loss: 0.65320 ✅ Take Profit: 0.65965 💡 Why am I buying here? ✅ Price broke recent resistance at 0.65500, activating buy trades. ✅ RSI confirm ongoing bullish momentum 📊. 📰 Fundamental Situation: 🏦 RBA Rate Decision Supports AUD The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by holding rates steady at 3.85% 🏛️, diverging from expectations of a cut. This cautious stance reflects the RBA’s preference to wait for clearer signs of slowing inflation 📉 before adjusting policy further. Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that inflation risks remain persistent ⚠️, driven by high labor costs and weak productivity, possibly requiring a longer period of restrictive policy ⏳. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted the bank is closely monitoring global risks 🌐, especially US tariff developments, underscoring sensitivity to global headwinds that could impact trade and growth 📦. 🌎 Trade Tensions in Focus: President Trump ruled out extending tariff deadlines beyond August 1 ⛔, announcing new duties: 🔹 50% on copper 🪙 🔹 Potential 200% on pharmaceuticals 💊 🔹 10% on goods from BRICS 🌐 These moves are likely to intensify global trade tensions ⚔️, potentially impacting commodity flows and inflation, which the RBA and markets will continue to monitor closely.
Long
by ProfessorSingapore
Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) –A Tactical Re-Entry Zone?🟡 Gold-Linked Opportunity: Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) – A Tactical Re-Entry Zone? Context: Ramelius Resources, a mid-tier Aussie gold producer, is showing signs of technical exhaustion after a strong rally from its 2024 lows. With gold prices consolidating and RMS pulling back to a key support zone, this could be a tactical opportunity for shareholders and swing traders alike. 📊 Technical Snapshot: Current Price: $2.47 Trendline Support: The long-term ascending trendline remains intact, offering a potential re-entry zone for bulls. Risk-Reward Setup: Defined green/red zones highlight a favorable R:R ratio for those targeting a rebound toward $2.80–$3.00. 🪙 Gold Correlation Insight: The inset chart shows gold (XAU/USD) stabilizing after a volatile June. If gold resumes its uptrend, RMS could follow suit, given its strong correlation with bullion prices. 🧠 Psychological Angle: After a 40%+ rally from the $1.78 low, some profit-taking is natural. But this pullback may shake out weak hands before a continuation move. Watch for sentiment shifts around gold and broader risk appetite—these could be catalysts for RMS’s next leg. #RMS #Gold #ASX #MJTrading #Forex #Trading #Investment
ASX:RMSLong
by MJElahifx