AVAX | ANOTHER DUMP IS LOADING | CHOO CHOOOOCRYPTOCAP:AVAX looks ready for another potential dump. In my CRYPTOCAP:AVAX analysis of August 26 we nailed the entry and exit pixel perfect.
The CRYPTOCAP:AVAX analysis of September 11 was also on point.
I believe that we're not setting up for another hard leg down. Lets look at the data to validate our thesis.
We’re currently in a textbook compression before expansion phase. Price has been moving sideways for days.
CVD Spot is trending down while price holds flat.
CVD Stablecoin-Margined Contracts is also trending down.
CVD Coin-Margined Contracts is trending down even more aggressively.
This tells us that while price is stable, market participants are hitting the bid — selling through the order book. The only reason price hasn’t dropped yet is because passive buyers (limit bids) are absorbing that selling pressure. Once that liquidity weakens or gets pulled, price can easily air pocket lower.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting.
Open Interest (Stablecoin-Margined) is flat.
Open Interest (Coin-Margined) is rising steadily.
At the same time, Coin-Margined CVD continues to drop, and price remains flat inside the range.
Conceptually, this combination is very bearish. Rising OI means new positions are being opened. Falling CVD means those positions are being opened via market sells — in other words, traders are adding shorts. The steady rise in coin-margined OI tells us these are leveraged positions taken directly against the asset, not just speculative stablecoin longs.
This pattern shows that new short exposure is building quietly under the surface, while spot and stablecoin flows fail to show any real buying. It’s the kind of distribution that looks like “accumulation” on the chart — but it’s actually leveraged sellers being absorbed by patient buyers. When those buyers step away, the imbalance resolves sharply to the downside.
In plain English:
Price is holding up because someone keeps catching the falling knife. But the knife is still falling.
Unless Spot CVD turns positive and stablecoin OI starts rising with it (showing real demand returning), this setup points to one thing — another leg down is coming for AVAX.
I'm targeting ZONE 2 and ZONE 3. Check the Order Flow Data here: ibb.co
Trade safe, Nomads!
