ALIBABA This correction isn't over.Alibaba (BABA) has been trading within a Channel Up since the October 07 2024 High. Right now it is on the 3rd Bearish Leg of this pattern, confirmed below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Both previous Bearish Legs touched the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and the 1W RSI Higher Lows trend-line.
We expect that to happen at $137.00 (at least), which still puts the stock above both the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the Bullish Leg and the -31.83% drop of the first Bearish Leg.
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BABA
BABA🌎Alibaba's AI Ambitions Gain Momentum: Qwen's Record-Breaking Launch and Strategic Investments
Alibaba is experiencing strong growth, fueled by the impressive success of its AI assistant, Qwen. Just a week after the public beta release, the app has surpassed 10 million downloads, marking the fastest launch of any such tool in history.
This success signals the company's decisive entry into the consumer AI market and strengthens its position as a direct competitor to ChatGPT and other global leaders in generative AI.
Why Qwen is More Than Just a Chatbot
The company positions Qwen as an "intelligent gateway to everyday life."
Unlike many Western subscription-based models, Alibaba is emphasizing a freemium model and deep integration of AI into its ecosystem. Plans include implementing "agent-based AI" features to automate tasks such as food ordering, travel booking, and shopping on platforms like Taobao.
The app is currently available in China, but an international version is expected soon.
Sizable Investments and Financial Results
To support its ambitions, Alibaba is mobilizing significant resources. The previously announced AI investment plan of RMB 380 billion (~$53 billion) over three years demonstrates a scale comparable to that of American IT giants.
These investments are already bearing fruit:
Revenue Growth: In Q1 FY26, revenue from the Cloud Intelligence division grew 26% year-on-year to RMB 33.4 billion, largely driven by strong demand for AI computing power and cloud services.
Explosive Growth in AI Products: Revenue from AI-based products has shown triple-digit growth for the eighth consecutive quarter, demonstrating the active adoption of technology by enterprises in China.
Increasing the profitability of the cloud business, which is under pressure from the high cost of building AI infrastructure, remains a key challenge.
Technological Innovation in the Face of Restrictions
In response to US export restrictions, Alibaba is finding creative ways to improve efficiency. Aegaeon's recently introduced GPU pooling system dramatically reduces dependence on Nvidia chips. During beta testing, this technology reduced the number of GPUs required by 82%—from 1,192 to 213—to support dozens of AI models.
This achievement highlights the company's ability to mitigate the impact of sanctions through software optimization.
Alibaba is one of the few global platforms offering a full stack of AI services. Strategic investments in promising areas such as international expansion and partnerships (for example, upcoming XPeng robotaxis trials using Amap maps in 2026) provide the foundation for long-term growth.
On the downside, the current stock valuation is already overly optimistic, and sustaining accelerated growth requires continued high investment and impeccable strategy execution.
In our view, we are in Wave 4, where after a strong momentum, the stock needs a breather to continue its growth.
In general, we don't see the stock being distributed. Many factors point to a correction to future growth.
BABA long-term TAOk Alibaba, it's in a good and strong uptrend on weekly time frame and it has a potential to continue its growth even the next year. Yes it has recently released its AI app, but don't be too excited yet, don't pay too much attention to the news, BABA is currently in distribution on mid-term which has started about a week ago, and any pump is a danger. Watch for $146 level to hold the support, if it's broken it may dive all the way to $130ish area.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited ($BABA) Announced Q4 Earnings Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) announces her earnings reports today before the bell. The stock is up 5% with RSI at 47 NYSE:BABA shares are eyeing the $200 resistant should bullish momentum increase.
In the news, Alibaba reported cloud computing revenue up 34% year-on-year in its fiscal second quarter, beating market expectations. Investors are focused on Alibaba’s cloud division which books its revenue related to artificial intelligence.
In September, the company said it plans to increase spending on AI models and infrastructure development, on top of the 380 billion yuan ($53 billion) over three years it announced in February. Alibaba said on Tuesday it has spent around 120 billion yuan in capital expenditure toward AI and cloud infrastructure over the past four quarters.
In 2024, Alibaba's revenue was 996.35 billion, an increase of 5.86% compared to the previous year's 941.17 billion. Earnings were 129.47 billion, an increase of 62.36%.
Analyst Summary
According to 13 analysts, the average rating for BABA stock is "Strong Buy." The 12-month stock price target is $187.31, which is an increase of 16.54% from the latest price.
About BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates digital retail platforms under the Taobao and Tmall names; wholesale marketplaces through 1688.com and Alibaba.com; global e-commerce platform under the AliExpress name; e-commerce platforms under the Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz names;
BABA Breakout WatchBABA’s daily chart has shifted from a strong August–October rally into a corrective phase, with price now around 160 and printing a clear sequence of lower highs and lows. Price sits below the MA20 and MA60 but still above the rising MA120 near 141. This keeps the broader uptrend technically alive while short-term pressure remains bearish. A potential Double Bottom is developing in the 150–153 demand zone, with a strong bullish reaction from the second trough and a neckline around 168.
For bulls, the key is clearing the moving-average “ceiling” first. A daily close above 165 would show that buyers are absorbing supply at resistance and open the path toward a retest of the 168 neckline. A confirmed daily close above 168 would validate the Double Bottom and put 175–179 initially, and then 184, on the radar as measured-move targets. For this bullish idea, a sustained move back below 158, and especially a break under 150, would be a clear invalidation and shift focus back toward 148–144 near the MA120.
If price instead loses 158 on a daily close without ever reclaiming 165, the bounce looks more like a relief rally inside the downtrend, with sellers likely pressing for a deeper test of 150 and potentially 144. Until either 165 breaks topside or 158 fails, expect noisy consolidation between support at 150 and resistance near 165. This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations.
Thought of the Day 💡: Let the level confirm the idea, not the other way around.
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$BABATechnical Outlook for NYSE:BABA : Navigating Key Levels After a Strong Rally
NYSE:BABA has demonstrated significant strength over the past several months, establishing a well-defined and respected upward trendline on its chart. This consistent pattern of higher lows indicates sustained bullish momentum and has been the foundational support for the rally.
The key to determining the next major directional move lies in observing how the price interacts with critical Fibonacci retracement levels, drawn from the stock's previous significant swing low to its recent high.
Key Support Levels to Monitor:
Our primary support levels, derived from the Fibonacci sequence, are:
First Support (0.382 Fib): $144.52 - This is the most immediate and crucial level. A bounce here would suggest the underlying bullish trend remains intact, with the momentum merely pausing.
Second Support (0.5 Fib): $129.65 - This level represents a halfway retracement of the recent upswing and is a common area for buyers to re-enter.
Major Support (0.618 Fib): $114.78 - A deeper retracement to this level would signal a stronger pullback but would still keep the primary bullish structure alive from a classical technical perspective.
Critical Scenario for a Trend Reversal:
The most immediate threat to the current bullish structure would be a decisive break below the $144.52 level. Such a move would accomplish two technically significant events simultaneously:
It would breach the 0.382 Fibonacci support.
It would likely break the upward trendline that has guided the stock higher for months.
A confirmed break below this confluence of supports would be a strong indicator that the uptrend has exhausted itself in the short term, opening the door for a more pronounced downtrend. In this scenario, the market would then likely target the next supports at $129.65 and $114.78.
Ultimate Major Support:
Beyond the Fibonacci levels, the psychological and technical $100 mark stands as the ultimate major support. A decline to this level would represent a full retracement of the recent bullish wave and would be a critical make-or-break zone for the long-term outlook of the stock.
CHINA INTERNET ETF $KWEB to $90Components:
1 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD 11.02%
2 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD 10.94%
3 PDD HOLDINGS INC 8.31% #PDD
4 BAIDU INC-CLASS A 5.07%
5 JD.COM INC-CLASS A 4.97%
6 MEITUAN-CLASS B 4.95%
7 JD HEALTH 4.60%
8 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9 TENCENT MUSI-ADR 4.24% #TME
10 KANZHUN LTD - ADR 4.03% #BZ
Clean Cup and Handle
China stocks can continue their recovery
BABA Breakout Watch: Close Above 171 Opens Path to 190Alibaba (BABA) ripped higher from late August and topped near $190 in early October. Since then, price has been correcting inside a descending channel while holding above the 60-day moving average. Short-term momentum has cooled (MACD histogram negative), but the broader structure remains constructive: buyers defended the $158.00 demand zone and price is compressing toward the channel’s upper boundary.
Primary path: I’m looking for a daily close above ~$171.00 (break and hold over the channel top / short-term resistance) to signal a continuation of the prior uptrend. If confirmed with rising volume, the next waypoint sits near the upper band/near-term supply around $175.00–$180.00, followed by a retest of the October highs into $190.00–$191.50. That area remains the key supply zone where the last rally stalled.
Alternative: If buyers fail and $158.00 gives way, the corrective leg likely extends. A decisive break of that floor would put the lower channel line in play and opens room toward the next major support clustered around the 120-day context near $140.00. For positioning, longs can lean on $158.00 as the clean invalidation; below there, the bullish thesis is off the table.
This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations
Jd catalysts are in place for $43 Interestingly enough , the technicals are aligning perfectly for a sharp move in the coming 2-3 weeks for JD. The breakout of a large wedge , retest of the breakout and consolidation near the support are all bullish signs. The 1.618 fib extension for wave 3 takes it to about $43. Low and behold, this level aligns with the red downsloping trendline that connects 2 previous highs.
All this needs is a spark, which will be the tweet Donald Trump will put out once the deal is finalized. His photo op with Xi will be the icing on top. I wouldnt be surprised to see a nice pop into the previois range around $35-$37. The subsequent earnings in mid Nov could be another leg in what will be a journey to $43.
Alibaba Weekly Elliot Waves AnalysisBABA is currently in Wave 5. I believe BABA Wave 5 will be an ABC correction. With that being said, I expect a relief pump (wave B) to happen which will last for 1-2 weeks before we continue dumping. I have buy orders set for $85/$86 and at worse, $58. $100 support looks weak based on the lower Fibonacci targets. Be diligent with this one!
(Side Note: Wave 1 was also an ABC correction which is why the last wave will be similar to the first.)
You can learn more about this analysis by researching ABC corrections and Zigzags. Thank you!
BABA Perfect long positionNYSE:BABA is at a strong level ahead of its next upcoming earnings, I am looking for it to continue within its already formed parallel channel on the weekly chart. The daily shows a strong rejection of its 50ema, consequently breaking a previous swing high. the break indicates possibility of bullish momentum through the level. The current consolidation phase into the long term trend and the consolidation occurring on the long term volume profile POC, all act as positive confluence to the general idea of a mid-long term buy position on BABA. CN50 is also showing great strength on the monthly chart, which is a great confluence with BABA's overall performance.
Constriction of Bollinger daily bands is an added confluence, indicating the potential for increased volatility and a large move to come out of this consolidation phase in the near term.
I have entered a large long position, with stops shown at levels shown on chart to allow the trade to breath in the midst of unexpected volatility around earnings etc. Stops and tp may be adjusted as conditions change.
Goodluck trading ;)
Ali BABA Potential Huge Up Targets ALi BABA have Potential Huge Up Targets with potential 3 years accumulation range from March 2022 to today 15 August 2025.
P&F Chart targets calculations
ATR 20 1 Box Size 3.5 calculated on 15-08-2025
Position Opened on 13-08-2025
News on 15-08-2025:
Saudi Investment Sold all 1.6 Million American Depository shares in BABA in Q2 2025 Ending its investment in the Company!!!!!!!
Lets see what this chart will unfold in the future
BABA: triangle with tensionOn the weekly chart, BABA has already formed a golden cross - price is above both MA50 and MA200, confirming a bullish trend shift. The stock is now approaching the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle and the key resistance at $122, which also aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
The numbers inside the triangle represent the contraction phases, not Elliott waves. This is a classical consolidation before a potential breakout. If the $122 level is broken and retested, upside targets are $128 (0.618), $137 (0.786), and eventually $148–181 (1.0–1.618 extension).
Volume is rising, MACD is flipping bullish, and RSI is climbing out of oversold territory — all signs point to growing bullish momentum.
Fundamentally, Alibaba benefits from China's economic rebound, possible regulatory relief, and ongoing share buybacks. With Chinese tech rotating back into favor, BABA could lead the rally.
So if you're still waiting for a signal - it's already here. The golden cross is done, price is flying above moving averages, and all that’s left is a clean breakout. Watch $122 — that’s the launchpad.
Alibaba - Here we have the final bottom!🏮Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) finally created its bottom:
🔎Analysis summary:
As we are speaking, Alibaba finally managed to create a long term bottom formation. Specifically with the recent bullish break and retest, bulls are picking up momentum. We just have to see a break above the current key resistance level in the foreseeable future!
📝Levels to watch:
$140
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on BABA:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 135usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-9-19,
for a premium of approximately $14.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$BABA - Structure Confirmed, Targets In Motion - 9/24/2025Back in February, we discussed how NYSE:BABA was approaching the final stages of a reversal pattern. That call has now been confirmed with the structure concluding at $117. What followed was nothing short of explosive—a 51% upswing rally that’s currently unfolding with strong momentum. 📈
Note: The stock bounced twice off the 50-week moving average, signaling strong support as the correction neared its end.
The chart highlights the projected targets for this new rally, and for transparency and educational value, the internal wave structure and labeling have been intentionally left visible. This is especially insightful for traders exploring Modern Trading Algorithms and their structural variations.
Let the rally do the talking! 📊. 🚀
Happy Trading!
$190 -$200 a possible level for BABA$190 -$200 a possible level for BABA.
I woke up to the news of possible collaboration between Alibaba and Nvidia AI collaboration.
With the AI demand and this news, I think the fundamental is great.
Technically, I will be looking at BABA pushing towards $190 zone, or to a psychological level of $200.
Remail positive and trade with care
Alibaba | BABA | Long at $108.84Like Amazon, I suspect AI and robotics will enhance Alibaba's NYSE:BABA e-commerce, logistics, and cloud computing operations. There is some risk here, like other Chinese stocks, that they could be delisted from the US market if trade/war tensions rise. But I just don't think that is likely (no matter the threats) due to the importance of worldwide trade and investment. I could be way wrong, though...
NYSE:BABA has a current P/E of 14.2x and a forward P/E of 2x, which indicates strong earnings growth ahead. The company is very healthy, with a debt-to-equity of 0.2x, Altmans Z Score of 3.3, and a Quick Ratio of 1.5. If this were a US stock, investors would have piled in long ago at the current price.
From a technical analysis perspective, the historical simple moving average (SMA) band has started to reverse trend (now upward), indicating a high potential for continued (overall) price movement up. It is possible, however, that the price may reenter the SMA band in the near-term - the $80s aren't out of the question - as tariff threats arise. But that area is another personal entry zone if fundamentals hold.
Thus, while it could be a bumpy ride and the risk is there for delisting, NYSE:BABA is in a personal buy zone at $108.84 (with known risk of drop to the $80s in the near-term).
Targets into 2028:
$125.00 (+14.8%)
$160.00 (+47.0%)
Why BABA Alibaba Could Rebound Strongly by Year-End 2025If you haven`t bought BABA before the recent rally:
What you need to know:
BABA’s fundamentals, fueled by e-commerce, cloud, and AI, support its technical bullishness:
E-commerce and Cloud Rebound:
Q1 2025 revenue grew 7% year-over-year, with Taobao/Tmall rebounding and cloud revenue surging due to AI demand.
Alibaba’s cloud division, China’s largest, benefits from hyperscaler AI workloads, with 15% profit margin projections by 2029.
AI Leadership:
BABA’s AI assistant and generative AI tools drove a 70% stock surge in early 2025, positioning it as a leader in China’s AI race.
At 12x forward P/E with 8% revenue CAGR, BABA is undervalued (fair value ~$162).
Share Buybacks:
Aggressive share repurchasing (6% annual reduction) boosts EPS, with $1 trillion GMV reinforcing e-commerce dominance.
Macro Tailwinds:
Easing CCP regulations and China’s stimulus measures (e.g., rate cuts) support BABA’s rally.
Minimal U.S. exposure insulates BABA from trade war risks.
Conclusion: BABA’s Path to $168
BABA’s technicals, with a bullish breaker and wedge, signal a breakout above $125–$130, targeting $150–$168 by year-end 2025. Fundamentally, its e-commerce dominance, cloud/AI growth, and undervaluation make it a standout. Traders should buy dips near $110–$115 or await a $130 breakout. With stimulus and buybacks as catalysts, BABA is set to soar.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought BABA before the rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 135usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2026-3-20,
for a premium of approximately $10.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.






















