Weekly crypto review: BTC macro + short-term bearish lookBitcoin Bitcoin is closing its second consecutive week below the 50-week moving average. Throughout this growth cycle (since the 2022 lows), price has always found support at these levels.
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Historically, closing below this level for more than two weeks in a row has almost always marked the start of a macro-correction cycle or ‘crypto winter,’ rather than just a standard drawdown.
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On RSI:
The Weekly RSI, which maintained an uptrend throughout 2024 and almost all of 2025, decisively broke its long-term support line in November. As long as RSI remains above the support line, the bullish cycle structure usually holds; however, a downward breakdown often coincides with the completion of a growth phase.
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The combination of these two signals—dropping below the 50-week average and the RSI support breakdown—sharply increases the probability that the market has already entered a macro-correction phase. In my view, the probability of this scenario is currently over 80%.
On 200W MA
In all past cycles, the final Bitcoin bottom formed specifically around the 200W MA. Currently, this sits near 66k, and by mid-2026, it could rise to the 73–75k range, fitting a scenario of a further 15–20% decline from current levels.
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Expectations for the week:
I see potential for another correction wave as long as price remains below 93k. In the coming days/week, it is logical to expect a bounce (already in progress) toward this resistance zone; however, without sustained consolidation above it, the risks of another drop toward 75–70k remain high.
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If the market does test the 75–70k zone, a local bottom may form there, triggering a powerful bearish rally toward the falling 200-day average. This is the ‘dead cat bounce’ scenario with potential upside of around +40%, typically used to regroup positions in the middle of a bearish phase
