BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I had previously called out for an Elliot wave inside a channel and a corresponding cup and handle formation. It seemed we were on track to fulfil my targets - we did have BTC pierce the 100 and 200 EMA a few times but it was finding strong support on these averages and the corresponding fib level - 78,6%.

Lets not talk about the past, dwell on the past as it seems that BTC has clearly fallen out of the upward channel and is now forming a potential bear flag!

Like I said in a previous update, BTC was strongly testing the channel and if it were to break support then we would definitely have to turn bearish! I did not take any trades and was only going to trade a potential break out of the wave and cup and handle formation - with TIGHT stops of course.

I have left the previous analysis drawings of the cup and handle with target for this chart. But will eventually remove them once they we are further and they are no longer relevant.

RSI is strongly oversold on the 4h chart at around 24 - on the 1d we have the RSI indicating 44 so we still may see even more downside! BE CAREFUL!

The MACD is showing bearish divergence and on the 1d about to show us the cross of death! Get ready guys this is going to get exciting!

It seems we are back under the downward channel trend-line - blue - and it showed NO evidence of support. BTC shot right through.

What we have now appearing on the 1h and of course even on the 4 hour chart is a potential bear flag . Do not count on the bear flag as we might see a strong reversal to the mean, BTC has been going down for a while. We have to leave more time for the bear flag to form before confirming anything. The bear flag formed should put us down to the 8k level this of course pushes us way past the 50% retracement level and down to the 38% level.

What's going on? Well our market cap is currently sitting at around 394 billion dollars - that's about 50 billion that have been wiped off the face of crypto. And it seems that the catalyst for this FUD is the SEC announcing that all exchanges must register with them:


This is after previous FUD where the SEC seems to be investigating any and all ICOs which could potentially be seen as securities and creators could face hefty fines and even prison time - I'm looking at you Ethereum .

Please if you have anymore information to share please do so in the comments below and I'll try to keep y'all updated.

This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor please do your own research!

Best of luck,
Mar 10
Comment: Target nearly reached, the chart will be updated soon. I hope you got a nice bottom!
Mar 10


CaH possible (we'll have to see how the volume shapes up) but I do have to say, it would be a pretty ugly cup.
XenoBiologist sn0wcrash
@sn0wcrash, Cup and handle was previous chart, I left it just to show my mistakes I guess, no one can be 100% right. Plus I think if 4 FUD stories hadn't come at the same time then it might have completed - Mt Gox selling BTC, SEC investigating ICOs, and requiring exchanges to register.

Now the main formation is the bear flag. I really can't see it forming anything else. We are even back into the downtrend channel!
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