Morpher long-term: Bearish Full Analysis!
CRYPTO:MPHMUSD
💡Hello Traders!💡
🏹This analysis is for all those traders who don't know what to trade. Or are confused like several others for hearing people say trade this; trade that but don't explain to you why and normally have a dangerous risk for your investment. I only trade after research and until I'm confident that the risk is minimum.
📉🎯Market Structure
Recently, Morpher has devalued like crazy. Once worth more than $0.02 per MPH now it is worth around $0.0072 and will continue to go down. I have been trading for more than a year this crypto and understand this crypto. It no longer is the crypto that kept its investor motivated and are lacking communication with investors and updates.
🐻💰Bear Market Is Obvious
The picture of the trend is now very clear. Because it leads to a sell-of which takes it to the point it it now. The only way this crypto can go up is if there is a crypto rally. Otherwise this is now a dead crypto; which makes it an ideal crypto to short.
NOTE : ⚠ Every trader should do their own research to be able to trade with confidence. This information has worked for me and wanted to share. That´s why I love TradingView theme "LOOK FIRST / THEN LEAP".
👍Thanks for your attention!👊
👇Feel free to comment below!👇
Bearishtrend
DEJA VU: The 2021 Top is Replaying on the Weekly Chart.This is a weekly view of BTC. The structure is clear and concerning.
The circle on the left shows the distribution pattern that led to the 2021 crash. The circle on the right shows where we are right now. The similarity is undeniable.
We have just witnessed a major weekly rejection and a structural break to the downside. The macro top appears to be in, and the bearish reversal has started.
The arrow indicates the expected trajectory. I anticipate a continued decline toward the major weekly support clusters shown by the yellow lines below.
Parallel Channel + RSI = Sell Signal SetupXAUUSD on the M30 timeframe is trading inside a clear downward parallel channel, confirming a strong bearish trend. Price has been rejected from the upper channel resistance and is now expected to continue toward the lower channel support.
RSI Confirmation:
RSI is holding below the 50 level, showing sustained bearish momentum. No strong bullish divergence is present, supporting trend continuation.
Target (TP): 4555 (Channel Support)
Stop Loss (SL): Above Channel Upper Resistance.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, so always do your own research and manage risk properly before taking any trade.
Critical Macro Signs Seen on SPOT, warrant attentionSpotify has been a fan favorite for the last few years. I mean who wouldn't fall in love with it. It has had roughly 850% gains since Feb 2023.
And so its recent downtrend requires attention. Traders and investors alike are wondering if this is buy the Dip situation with many probably been doing so. But you have to take the time and ask yourself am i acting on emotion such as Fear of Missing Out or am i acting on evidence, actual signs that indicate it really is Buy the Dip situ.
Many people from hedge fund guys to influencers will say things, signals will be called. But the attention should be put on the facts in the charts. We should consider what price action is telling us and if there are clues in certain indicators or not.
Since we have been in a Uptrend for roughly 2 - 3 years, we have to consider SPOT to have experienced a Bull run. With recent downtrend, we have to then consider whether or not the Bull trend is INTACT or if its being invalidated or in other words if the current downtrend shows signs that Trend is reversing. If signs of reversal are present it may not be a Buy the dip situation.
IN trading and Investing, we must remove Emotion, Humble ourselves and consider all scenarios at all times.
Okay so we will look into the Macro picture of price action. Ill start with the 1 Month timeframe. Note that each candle is 1 Months average of opening/closing price. Macro analysis is a powerful tool especially to determine large picture, long duration trends like Bull runs or bear markets.
June 2025 we reached a high of roughly $770. But the Month after (July) We experienced extreme sell off indicated by the Engulfing Bearish candle. Which on the 1 Month is an alarming sign. (This could be the top)
Followed by 3 Months of attempts to get back on track of the trend. Which met with continued SELL pressure indicated by the Large Upper wicks in August & Sept.
Then from October we continued to sell off. Fast forward to this current month of January. We are on the verge of printing another Large Body Bearish Candle. Which warrant caution.
Candle bodies and its size indicate the strength of that candles move and may even help determine price moves in the future. Incase of Monthly candles, a large candle print can make impacting future moves more probable. Something to consider.
We are also in the process of breaking down below a Horizontal Support line where Jan to March 2025 we maintained Support or showed Buy pressure on.
This may be a low that could invalidate our Bull run.
Our current Monthly candle is also in a crucial Support zone depicted by yellow zone.
There are 2 Bull Support Trend lines depicted by green lines. Where we can attempt to test Support. We are currently doing so on the first line.
If we fail to hold here, we would test Support at the lower order of the Yellow zone.
If we fail to hold here, we'd test Support at the Lower green line.
And if this fails we would attempt Support at the Resistance Turned Support line at around $300.00.
We have 2 days in the Month. If we can have Buy pressure come in and have this months candle wick back above the Support line we are breaking. That would be a solid sign for bullish case. But dont think its a probable case.
We would need to see signs of confirming Support if we are too continue the Bull run.
Till then SPOT warrants caution and in my opinion definitely not a Buy the Dip situation at this moment.
We need to show patience in the markets if we want to be successful and not be on the end of a losing position.
Follow me and continue to observe SPOT. Look to more updates to the analysis.
DASH / USDT Weak Structure — Breakdown Below $67.76 Can Trigger DASH / USDT is showing clear weakness, and a confirmed breakdown below the key level of $67.76 can open the door for a downside move of around 17% towards $55.57. Wait for a clean breakdown and confirmation before entering, and manage risk carefully.
BTC Next leg downI had a previous chart from early 2023 where I predicted BTC price movement based on previous cycles. (yellow bars)
In this chart I expected a double top around ~225k. We never reached that high and there have been many reasons for it over the past year especially. Sometime in 2025 when we hit our double top around ~125k I figured this was it. I adjusted the price estimation (yellow bars) down to match the new top.
The time axis was still pretty spot on. This is reinforced by the blue date range bars at the top as well. So I'd say we are getting ready for a big BTC sell off this year, heading toward mid ~30k
EURUSD H4 Bearish CHOCH + BOS, Descending Channel Continuation 📝 Description
EURUSD on H4 has completed a clear CHOCH followed by BOS, confirming a shift into a bearish HTF framework. Price is now respecting a descending channel, with pullbacks failing below prior resistance and acceptance holding under key PD Arrays.
________________________________________
📈 Analysis (Scenario-Based | Non-Signal)
Primary Bias: Bearish within the channel
• Continuation favors a measured sell-off along the channel slope
• Pullbacks into H4 resistance / FVG are corrective, not impulsive
• Downside draw remains toward lower H4 liquidity (LQ/SSL) inside the channel
• Any bounce without acceptance above the channel top is viewed as sell-side opportunity
________________________________________
🎯 ICT & SMC Notes
• Confirmed CHOCH + BOS (H4) validates bearish structure
• H4 FVG overhead acting as dynamic supply
• Liquidity draw favors SSL below recent lows
________________________________________
🧩 Summary
Structure and geometry align for continued downside. As long as EURUSD trades below channel resistance, probability favors gradual bearish expansion toward lower liquidity pools rather than a reversal.
________________________________________
🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
With USD strength increasing such as ISM and Unemployment Rate, and no clear catalysts for EUR, macro flow supports a bearish continuation. This backdrop reinforces the expectation of downside movement within the drawn channel, barring a sudden shift in USD momentum or euro-specific catalysts.
________________________________________
⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BTC Weekly chart Bear Market (Updated)This is the updated version from the last post made on November 16th 2025.
At the time, I just calculated with the chart that I had at that moment, so you will notice that the short zone area has changed a bit. Nontheless the accumulation zone as well as the general projection have remained.
Do not buy BTC, wait to come for the accumulation zone.
Hope you guys are doing ok, I hope you have a wonderful year!
Brent Oil M30 HTF Breakdown and Bearish Continuation Setup📝 Description
Brent Oil experienced a sharp impulsive sell from the HTF supply area, shifting momentum decisively bearish. The current price action is a corrective pullback into a lower-timeframe FVG, with no signs of structural recovery.
________________________________________
📈 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bearish while price remains below the M30 FVG and prior breakdown level
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 63.38
• Stop Loss: Above 63.73
• TP1: 63.01
• TP2: 62.67
• TP3: 62.38 (HTF liquidity / FVG draw)
________________________________________
🎯 ICT & SMC Notes
• Strong impulsive sell confirms bearish order flow
• Current move classified as corrective retracement
• No bullish CHOCH or demand reaction confirmed
________________________________________
🧩 Summary
As long as price fails to reclaim the M30 FVG, the structure favors continuation toward lower liquidity targets.
________________________________________
🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
With easing geopolitical tensions, the risk premium priced into oil is likely to unwind. In the absence of supply disruption fears, Brent faces downside pressure, keeping lower prices favored as the market rebalances.
________________________________________
⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
1/15 recap - Tears are real and we cannot have all winning daysPremarket POI map
Key levels I marked:
NY AM High: 25,954.25
PDH: 25,878.75
NY AM Low: 25,803.50
POIs above: 25,871.25 / 25,920.50 / 26,006.00 / 26,083.50 / 26,106.25
Lower POIs: 25,690.00 / 25,670.25 / 25,622.50 / 25,596.25 / 25,579.50 (and lower)
Gameplan (simple):
Bull case: reclaim/hold PDH + POI1 → push to POI2/POI3.
Bear/flush case: lose AM Low → next POIs below.
What price actually did (chart story)
Early session: Price was strong (green trend/structure), then sold off from the upper POI zone, showing “decision candle” rejection near your POI2 area.
Mid-morning: The drop drove into the NY AM Low (25,803.50) zone (I highlighted this). That level acted like the decision point.
Reversal confirmation: You caught the key idea—hold AM Low → reclaim back into PDH/POI1 area. Your later screenshots show LONG valid entry printing around the POI1 / PDH reclaim area and then continuation.
Clean takeaway: Today’s “A+” idea was the AM Low hold + reclaim (your circled 25,803.50).
Your Trades (QQQ 1/15 Calls) — lined up & totaled
From your trade screenshot list:
Sequence (CST)
11:18 – Buy QQQ 1/15 $627C x3 @ 0.43 → -129
11:23 – Buy $627C x3 @ 0.40 → -120
11:31 – Buy $627C x4 @ 0.28 → -112
12:05 – Buy $627C x5 @ 0.21 → -105
12:15 – Buy QQQ 1/15 $626C x2 @ 0.54 → -108
13:40 – Buy QQQ 1/15 $625C x1 @ 0.18 → -18
Late-day closes / salvage:
14:11 – Sell $625C x1 @ 0.05 → +5
14:17 – Sell $626C x2 @ 0.02 → +4
14:37 – Sell $627C x15 @ 0.01 → +15
P/L Summary
Winners: +$24
Losers: -$592
✅ Net P/L: -$568.00
What this means in plain English: you kept a bullish thesis (calls) while price/IV/theta didn’t pay fast enough, so the position decayed and you ended up “selling for pennies” into the close.
WTI D1 Prior Order Block Reaction and Downside Continuation📝 Description
BLACKBULL:WTI on D1 has pushed back into a previous Daily Order Block, where price is showing rejection behavior. This area aligns with HTF supply and the broader descending context, suggesting the recent bounce is corrective, not a structural shift.
________________________________________
📈 Analysis (Scenario-Based | Non-Signal)
With price reacting from the prior OB, downside risk increases as geopolitical tensions ease.
• Rejection from the OB favors a bearish rotation
• Pullbacks into the OB without acceptance reinforce sell-side control
• Downside draw remains toward lower D1 liquidity and FVGs
________________________________________
🎯 ICT & SMC Notes
• Daily OB acting as supply
• Move into OB classified as corrective retracement
• No HTF acceptance above supply
• Liquidity draw favors SSL / D1 FVG below
________________________________________
🧩 Summary
After tapping the previous Daily Order Block, and with geopolitical tensions cooling, WTI is vulnerable to risk-premium unwind. As long as price remains below the OB, probabilities favor further downside toward lower liquidity, rather than continuation higher.
________________________________________
🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
With geopolitical tensions easing, the risk premium in oil can fade, which typically pressures prices lower. If headlines stay calm and risk-off demand for crude weakens, the rejection from the Daily OB has more room to extend downside.
________________________________________
⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
AUD/USD | Weekly Outlook – Reversal Setup Forming from HTF SweepAUD/USD is showing early signs of a potential reversal on the higher timeframe, in alignment with broader USD strength.
We can see a clear sweep of buyside liquidity, followed by a potential shift in structure, hinting at short-term exhaustion on the upside.
Price is now positioned near a weekly order block, which aligns closely with a weekly fair value gap (FVG) just above it.
This confluence forms a key point of interest (POI) — an area where reactions may develop if bearish momentum continues to hold.
For the week ahead, the focus remains on how price behaves around this high-timeframe zone, particularly if USD momentum remains strong.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before trading.
XAU/USD | Bearish When $4,425 Confluence Support Is Breached⚡Critical Confluence Level ($4,425)
⚡Key Support: The $4,425 level is currently a key focus as it represents the confluence point between the 100-hour SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the recent price rally.
⚡Breakout Scenario: If the price closes decisively below this level, it is expected to trigger further technical selling, which could drag Gold down towards the psychological level of $4,400.
⚡Stability: Holding the price above the 38.2% level is crucial to stabilize the faltering market sentiment.
How to read candlestick: Part 2 (BEARISH REVERSAL PATTERNS)Identifying the top of a trend is one of the hardest skills in trading. While no one can catch the exact top every time, Bearish Reversal Patterns are the market’s way of signaling that the buyers are exhausted and the sellers (bears) are seizing control.
These patterns usually appear after a sustained uptrend or at a key resistance level.
1. The Shooting Star
The Shooting Star is one of the most reliable single-candle signals. It looks like an inverted hammer but appears at the top of an uptrend.
● Structure:
1. Small Body: The body (open and close) is small and located at the bottom of the
candle's range.
2. Long Upper Wick: The upper wick (shadow) is at least 2-3 times longer than the
body.
3. No Lower Wick: Ideally, there is little to no lower wick.
● Psychology: Buyers pushed the price up significantly during the session, but sellers fought back aggressively, forcing the price to close near where it opened. The rejection of higher prices is clear.
2. Bearish Engulfing
This is a powerful two-candle pattern that signifies a major shift in momentum. It "engulfs" the previous buying pressure.
● Structure:
1. Candle 1 (Bullish): A green candle continuing the current uptrend.
2. Candle 2 (Bearish): A large red candle that opens above the previous close and
closes below the previous open. Its body completely overlaps (engulfs) the body
of the first candle.
● Psychology: The bulls tried to push up, but the bears came in with overwhelming
volume, completely wiping out the gains of the previous session and driving the price lower.
3. The Evening Star
The Evening Star is a three-candle formation that is often seen as more reliable than single-candle patterns because it unfolds over three sessions.
● Structure:
1. The Trend Candle: A large bullish candle.
2. The Star: A small-bodied candle (can be green or red) that gaps up slightly. It
represents indecision.
3. The Reversal Candle: A large bearish candle that closes well into the body of
the first bullish candle.
● Psychology: The first candle shows buyers are in control. The second candle shows
they are losing momentum (indecision). The third candle confirms that sellers have taken over and the reversal is active.
4. Dark Cloud Cover
This pattern is similar to the Bearish Engulfing but slightly less aggressive. It typically occurs at resistance levels.
● Structure:
Candle 1: A strong bullish candle.
Candle 2: A bearish candle that opens above the high of the previous candle (a
gap up) but then closes below the midpoint (50% level) of the first candle's body.
● Psychology: The market gaps up on optimism, but the rally fails. Sellers push the price
down deep into the previous day's gains, signaling a "dark cloud" over the trend.
5. Hanging Man
Interestingly, this looks exactly like a bullish Hammer, but the context is different.
● Structure: A small body at the top of the range with a long lower wick. It appears at the top of an uptrend.
● Psychology: Even though the price recovered to close near the high, the long lower wick shows that sellers were able to push the price down significantly during the session. This "sell-off" indicates that support is weakening and the trend is fragile.
TRADING TIP: CONFIRMATION IS KEY
Seeing a bearish pattern does not mean you should instantly short the market.
1. Location: These patterns are most effective at Key Resistance levels or Supply Zones.
2. Confirmation: Wait for the next candle to close lower than the pattern to confirm the
reversal.
3. RSI/Indicators: Check if your indicators (like RSI) are showing "Overbought" conditions or bearish divergence to support your trade idea.
AAVE - BEARISH OUTLOOK CRYPTOCAP:AAVE - Bearish Breakout Awaited!🚨
Medium term outlook = pretty bearish 📉
Chart looks pretty bad, with a potential support breakout & a 15% dump ahead!
Lower supports:
134− 125 - 112− 100
My bias:
Slow correction toward the following supports, likely $ 100 zone will act as long-term bottom 📉
110 - 115$ level could also act as double bottom on the weekly basis! 🎯
Bear Invalidation:
185, 200 resistance & daily uptrend resistances.
⚠️ Not financial advice - DYOR.
ZRO Weakness Into 4H FVG — Watching for Reversal Toward $1.50ZRO / USDT is showing weakness and continues to decline toward the 4H FVG zone at $1.24–$1.21. This area will be important to watch for a potential reaction. If price shows strength from this FVG, a reversal toward $1.50 can follow. Manage risk wisely and wait for confirmation.
BTC tops November 2024 and we are in distribution.Yes you are reading it right , Btc tops by the time Trump won the 2024 election as you can see the parabollic move not only in BTC but with other alts also.
I have 3 unignored observations:
1. MSTR topped at Nov 2024 by the time they purchase 50k plus BTC.
2. Notice the power of three at the btc chart started March 2025 and we are currently at expansion.
3. Privacy coins rallied- this is common scenario after btc tops just like what happens way back 2021 top where meme and metaverse coins rallied too much.
The duration for me is unknown, it will all depends on the MM and elites, but the bottom? I have two buy points, one at 50ksh and the other which is I am praying hard is the 30ksh level.
I know a lot will be disappointed but yeah crypto tops bro, time will tell, for me there was mini altseason parabollic move happens same month Btc did a mini parabollic move and some alts extending to December 2024 and the usual last part was the Meme rally which is the Trump meme coin on January 2025(crypto pros knows this).
Right now I will just wait for the bottom. If you will ask me how ugly will be the scenario of bottom then I think it is really ugly. I know 3 scenarios but I will just keep it for myself for now.
VET - BEARISH OUTLOOKNYSE:VET - Price Analysis 🟥
Very bearish chart 📉
Price confirmed a breakout under $ 0.0150, which is a multi-year support! 🚨
No buy pressure at the moment & H4 chart also looks like a bearish accumulation structure 📉
Prices could dump another 20 to 30% very easily without major support ahead.
Lower key levels I see: 0.0100− 0.00870 - $ 0.006500
Market conditions are pretty bad, but the chart also reflects the lack of demand!
Think about this: 2019's lowest demand/accumulation zone was around 0.0350 − 0.003300. If we move toward it, that would be another -60% bloodbath! 🚨






















