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There’s currently no synchronization for shorts. Bias D1 - short Narrative Asia - long There’s currently no synchronization for shorts. To confirm short setups, we need to wait for a BOS on h1. I expect this to happen through the short IMB on h1. If there’s no confirmation for shorts, the price may continue rising toward PDH. Once the short setup is confirmed, I expect the price to move toward the main target - PWL. Internal targets will be AL and the 3915 level. The current daily range is 1.59%. Considering this, market activity can be expected closer to the NY session. Invalidation point for the short idea - PDH. NEWS: 🔴 🇺🇸 USD 17:00 - ISM Manufacturing PMI 🟠 🇺🇸 USD 17:00 - ISM Manufacturing Prices
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DK2_fx
BANKNIFTY IntraSwing (Spot) & Future Levels for 04th Nov 2025✍🏼️ "Future IntraSwing Levels" mentioned in BOX format. ✍🏼️ "WEEKLY Levels" follow Sunday / Saturday's Post. L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias. L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above. L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias. L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1/ RLS#2 & USTgt HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone, *** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature) Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart Color code Used: Green =. Positive bias. Red =. Negative bias. RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change / CYCLE Change and Vice Versa. Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working. Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research. "As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's". Do comment if Helpful . In depth Analysis will be added later (If time Permits)
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by DSKF16
$PLTR weekly close above $200 before earnings#PLTR has been on a storming run this year. As I tell students - never fight a strong trend - you just need to find a way to surf it. Nevertheless, I had become concerned the last few weeks that perhaps it was overheating; we'd gone parabolic; followed by creating a double top; which then printed bearish key reversals and rejection candles. I wasn't short (don't fight a good trend), but it was on my watch list. I thought we may drift lower into earnings. Well, I was clearly wrong in my concerns, when price blasted higher last week, and also closed about $200 the week before earnings. Can we turn $200 in a base before a move higher?
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by FXTraderPaul
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 3 - 7 NovemberMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: BoE Interest Rate Decision, Canada Jobs Data & Earnings Reports In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s most critical events driving global markets. 👉 Key topics covered in this episode: — BoE Interest Rate Decision — Canada’s Unemployment Rate — Corporate Earnings Reports Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge. This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
$CAC40 finding resistance at 8250 againI think its fair to say that the domestic French Political situation appears to be even more of a farce than here in the UK (and that's saying something). Has that also acted as a drag upon investors in France? The weekly chart of the CAC would say so. Once again we have failed to breakout of the 8250 level of resistance. This time we have printed a nice evening start pattern at that level. This would lead us to favour a move lower in the short term.
TVC:CAC40Short
by FXTraderPaul
GIFTNIFTY IntraSwing Levels for 03rd Nov 2025✍🏼️ "WEEKLY Levels" mentioned in BOX format. L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias. L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above. L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias. L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone, *** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature) Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart Color code Used: Green =. Positive bias. Red =. Negative bias. RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change / CYCLE Change and Vice Versa. Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working. Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research. "As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's". Do comment if Helpful . In depth Analysis will be added later (If time Permits)
NSEIX:NIFTY1!
by DSKF16
Is IBM Building an Unbreakable Cryptographic Empire?IBM has positioned itself at the strategic intersection of quantum computing and national security, leveraging its dominance in post-quantum cryptography to create a compelling investment thesis. The company led the development of two of the three NIST-standardized post-quantum cryptographic algorithms (ML-KEM and ML-DSA), effectively becoming the architect of global quantum-resistant security. With government mandates like NSM-10 requiring federal systems to migrate by the early 2030s, and the looming threat of "harvest now, decrypt later" attacks, IBM has transformed geopolitical urgency into a guaranteed, high-margin revenue stream. The company's quantum division has already generated nearly $1 billion in cumulative revenue since 2017—more than tenfold that of specialized quantum startups—demonstrating that quantum is a profitable business segment today, not merely an R&D cost center. IBM's intellectual property moat further reinforces its competitive advantage. The company holds over 2,500 quantum-related patents globally, substantially outpacing Google's approximately 1,500, and secured 191 quantum patents in 2024 alone. This IP dominance ensures future licensing revenue as competitors inevitably require access to foundational quantum technologies. On the hardware front, IBM maintains an aggressive roadmap with clear milestones: the 1,121-qubit Condor processor demonstrated manufacturing scale in 2023, while researchers recently achieved a breakthrough by entangling 120 qubits in a stable "cat state." The company targets deployment of Starling, a fault-tolerant system capable of running 100 million quantum gates on 200 logical qubits, by 2029. Financial performance validates IBM's strategic pivot. Q3 2025 results showed revenue of $16.33 billion (up 7% year-over-year) with EPS of $2.65, beating forecasts, while adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 290 basis points. The company generated a record $7.2 billion in year-to-date free cash flow, confirming its successful transition toward high-margin software and consulting services. The strategic partnership with AMD to develop quantum-centric supercomputing architectures further positions IBM to deliver integrated solutions at exascale for government and defense clients. Analysts project IBM's forward P/E ratio may converge with peers like Nvidia and Microsoft by 2026, implying potential share price appreciation to $338-$362, representing a unique dual thesis of proven profitability today combined with validated high-growth quantum optionality tomorrow.
NYSE:IBMLong
by UDIS_View
2
NIFTY IntraSwing (Spot) Future Levels for 04th Nov '25✍🏼️ "Future IntraSwing Levels" mentioned in BOX format. ✍🏼️For "WEEKLY Levels" follow Sunday / Saturday's Post. L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias. L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above. L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias. L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone, *** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature) Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart Color code Used: Green =. Positive bias. Red =. Negative bias. RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change / CYCLE Change and Vice Versa. Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working. Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research. "As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's". Do comment if Helpful . In depth Analysis will be added later (If time Permits)
NSE:NIFTY
by DSKF16
Gold holds above $4000 — waiting for breakout confirmation🟠 Market Overview Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4012, moving in a narrow range between $4000 – $4020. Buying pressure remains firm near the psychological support at $4000, while sellers are defending the $4025–$4030 resistance zone. The market is in a neutral consolidation phase, waiting for direction before the U.S. session tonight. 📊 Technical Analysis • Near-term support: $4000 – $4003 • Near-term resistance: $4025 – $4028 • EMA50 (H1): currently around $4008 — acting as dynamic support. • RSI (H1): near 48 — neutral, suitable for two-way scalping setups. 🔎 Outlook Gold is “compressing” around $4010. Main scenario: if the price holds above $4000 and confirms a bullish H1 candle, the upward trend could resume toward $4035–$4050. Conversely, if the price closes below $3998, a pullback to $3985 becomes likely. → Prefer BUY setups on support reactions, and SELL setups only on strong rejection near resistance. 🎯 TRADE STRATEGY 🔺 BUY XAU/USD : $3987 – $3984 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips 🛑 SL: $3980 ________________________________________ 🔻 SELL XAU/USD : $4026 – $4029 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips 🛑 SL: $4033
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
CHFJPY November 2025 fundamental analysisSwiss Franc (CHF): Safe Haven Supremacy Despite Zero Rates Swiss National Bank Policy The Swiss National Bank has maintained its policy rate at 0.00% and shows no inclination to move into negative territory despite franc strength. At its September meeting, the SNB notably refrained from describing the franc as "highly valued" or expressing concern over its appreciation—a significant shift in communication. This suggests the SNB has become more comfortable with franc strength, particularly as Switzerland's real exchange rate remains relatively stable due to low domestic inflation of just 0.2%.​ Economic Environment Switzerland's economy is projected to grow 1.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The SNB characterized current policy settings as "appropriately expansionary" despite the 0% rate, and expressed confidence that inflation will remain within the 0-2% target range. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with weaker growth prospects potentially limiting any hawkish policy adjustments.​ November Outlook: Bullish The Swiss franc's safe-haven status provides strong support in November's uncertain environment. EUR/CHF has been trading around 0.92-0.93, and analysts expect the pair to gradually appreciate toward 0.96 over the next 12 months, implying modest franc weakness against the euro. However, against the dollar, the franc is expected to strengthen significantly, with USD/CHF forecasts suggesting 0.77 within a year, with downside risks toward 0.75 or even 0.73. The franc's outperformance has persisted despite substantial interest rate differentials, demonstrating the power of safe-haven flows in the current geopolitical environment. Japanese Yen (JPY): Political Dovishness Delays Normalization Bank of Japan: Divided Board, Delayed Tightening The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark short-term rate unchanged at 0.5% at its October meeting, as widely expected, but the decision revealed significant internal division. The vote split 7-2, with board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata advocating for a hike to 0.75%, repeating their stance from the September meeting. Takata argued that "now is the appropriate time to raise interest rates," noting that inflation has remained above the bank's target for three and a half years, while Tamura called for moving toward neutral rates.​ Despite these hawkish voices, Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious approach, emphasizing that the BoJ would continue with policy normalization "once its economic projections are met" but warning that global trade policies could slow growth and hurt corporate profits. The central bank reiterated its inflation outlook, projecting core CPI at 2.7% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while raising 2025 growth forecasts slightly to 0.7%.​ Political Constraints: The Takaichi Factor The election of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister in mid-October significantly altered the trajectory of BoJ policy expectations. Takaichi, known as a fiscal dove who favors expansionary fiscal measures and loose monetary policy, has complicated the path toward further tightening. Following her election, the yen depreciated more than 2% against the USD, and market expectations for an October rate hike evaporated.​ The new government's support for accommodative policy creates a political constraint on the BoJ's normalization efforts, even as some policymakers argue for immediate rate hikes. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged the BoJ to accelerate rate hikes to prevent excessive yen depreciation, adding external pressure to the central bank's considerations. Markets now assign only a 47% chance of a December rate hike, with consensus building around a delayed move to early 2026.​ November Outlook: Persistent Weakness Despite Normalization Promise The Japanese Yen carries a weak fundamental outlook for November, reflected in its trading near 154 per USD—nine-month lows and close to the 37-week low of 153.28. The currency has weakened more than 4% in October alone, making it one of the worst G10 performers. Despite some hawkish board members and the BoJ's stated intention to continue normalization, the dovish political environment and cautious central bank approach leave the yen vulnerable.​ The 3.25% interest rate differential with the USD remains a key driver supporting USD/JPY carry trades, though this spread is expected to compress toward 2.5% as the Fed continues cutting while the BoJ only gradually raises rates. While this compression could eventually support the yen, the timeline remains uncertain—potentially extending into 2026 rather than materializing in November. Technical analysis suggests immediate support near 151.73 (21-day average) with the next level around 150.11 (50-day average), but resistance looms at 154.80 and potentially 155 if the BoJ remains dovish. For November, the yen is expected to remain under pressure against most major currencies, while showing marginal strength only versus the aggressively easing NZD.​ Verdict Despite its potential fundamental strength the JPY remains one of the weakest amongst the major currencies thanks mostly to continued dovish policy. CHF on the other hand remains incredibly stable throughout the year leaving most other currencies in the dust. Thus CHF/JPY is a clear BUY .
Long
by Oneirotrade
The digital gold - BTC weekly update Nov 03 - 09thBitcoin shows a pretty similar structure to the alts, just in another context. The overall picture is that we are now in a larger corrective movement where we could drop to 40k again. The structure in the lower timeframes, as shown on the chart, show that a short-term rise is possible in the next days and weeks. Over the past week and the drop today we completed the flat pattern of the primary wave B with the completion of the intermediate wave C. For now therefore I expect the Bitcoin to perform a turn and a rise to the fibonacci extension levels shown on the chart. This scenario is supported by the correlation with other coins, the liquidation heatmap showing a bunch of liquidity above the current price and funding rates being lower than normal. RSI shows itself also near the oversold range and MACD turned only slightly negative during this drop. Overall this shows us a good environment to rise to 117k. Alternatively a further drop below the low of the intermediate wave A would be possible, but as fibonacci levels of the elliott wave principle do not support these deep niveaus anymore, I think a turn is probable.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Phillipklh
AUD/CAD Approaching Support: Strong Bounce IncomingAUD/CAD has finished a strong 5-wave move to the upside, completing Wave (1)/(A). Since then, price has been moving in a corrective channel and is now forming an A-B-C decline toward the lower support zone. The current structure suggests one more push down to complete Wave C of (2)/(B), where buyers are likely to step back in. Once that final dip finishes, the chart expects a powerful Wave (3)/(C) rally to the upside, targeting new highs. In simple terms: small drop left → correction ends → strong bullish continuation ahead. Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
by Money_Dictators
GBPUSD November 2025 fundamental analysisBritish Pound (GBP): Stagflation Amid Rate Cuts and Fiscal Concerns Monetary Policy Trajectory The Bank of England faces mounting pressure to deliver another rate cut in November, with markets pricing in approximately 75% probability of a 25 basis point reduction. This follows September's inflation reading of 3.8% year-on-year (below the 4.0% consensus) and a surprise uptick in unemployment to 4.5%. Current projections suggest interest rates will decline to around 3.75% by the close of 2025, with two additional reductions anticipated in 2026, eventually bringing rates to approximately 3.25% over the medium term.​ Economic Challenges The UK confronts what economists describe as "the most stagflationary economy in the developed world"—a brutal combination of high inflation, weak growth, and rising unemployment. The upcoming Autumn Budget on November 26 represents a critical inflection point, with Finance Minister Rachel Reeves under pressure to balance fiscal responsibility against growth imperatives.​ Services inflation remains elevated at 4.7%, while core CPI sits at 3.5%, both above the BoE's comfort zone. The labor market is softening, which could prompt the BoE to ease despite persistent inflation concerns. However, some MPC members have expressed caution about reducing rates too rapidly, creating policy uncertainty.​ November Outlook: Bearish The pound's trajectory is decidedly negative for November. The expected BoE rate cut, combined with fiscal tightening signals from the Autumn Budget, creates a challenging environment. GBP/USD forecasts suggest range-bound trading between 1.32-1.38, with downside risks predominating. Against the euro, the pound has already weakened to 0.8765, approaching key support levels. Analysts at RBC Brewin Dolphin note that much of the pound's recent upward movement is actually "more to do with underlying dollar weakness than faith in sterling itself". United States Dollar (USD): Cautious Strength Amid Economic Resilience Monetary Policy: Fed's Hawkish Pause in Easing Cycle The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut in October 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75-4.00%, the lowest since 2022. However, the tone accompanying this decision was notably cautious. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a December rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion," effectively pushing back against market expectations that had priced in an 87.7% probability of another 25bps reduction in October and 62% odds for December.​ This hawkish messaging reflects the Fed's assessment of persistently elevated inflation, which has risen for five consecutive months and currently stands at 3.0% for both headline and core measures as of September. The central bank cited "increasing downside risks to employment" but noted that Powell explicitly stated he does not anticipate further deterioration in the labor market. The decision saw two dissenting votes—one favoring a 50bps cut and another preferring to hold rates steady—highlighting the divided nature of current Fed thinking.​ Economic Fundamentals: Resilience Defying Expectations The US economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of historically high tariffs (effective rate of 16-17%, highest since 1934) and a prolonged government shutdown exceeding five weeks. After contracting -0.6% in Q1 2025, GDP rebounded sharply to 3.8% in Q2, with Q3 tracking similarly strong at 3-4% according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. This growth is partly attributed to AI-related spending, which accounts for more than half of US growth this year.​ However, the government shutdown—affecting 1.4 million federal employees with roughly half furloughed and half working without pay—poses growing risks. A rule of thumb suggests every week of shutdown shaves 0.1% off GDP. The lack of timely economic data due to the shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process, potentially supporting a cautious approach in November and December.​ November Outlook: Dollar Strength with Caveats For November 2025, the USD maintains a positive outlook supported by several factors. The relative economic resilience compared to other major economies, higher interest rate differentials (3.875% vs most G10 currencies), and ongoing safe-haven demand underpin dollar strength. However, this strength is tempered by the prolonged government shutdown, fiscal concerns, and the gradual Fed easing trajectory.​ The dollar's performance will likely hinge on three key developments: resolution of the government shutdown, clarity on the December Fed decision, and the Supreme Court hearing on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Market positioning shows the Dollar Index (DXY) holding above 98, with technical resistance at 99.75 representing a key threshold for sustained strength. Verdict USD remains relatively strong as the leading world currency amid global economic uncertainty. GBP on the other hand faces critical domestic challenges. This makes GBP/USD a SELL for November.
Short
by Oneirotrade
USDJPY | Liquidity Sweep & Demand Reaction SetupUSDJPY is maintaining an overall bullish structure, but after a strong impulsive move, the market is now in a correction phase, forming equal lows and session liquidity beneath the current range. This creates a potential opportunity for buyers once liquidity is collected and price reacts from a valid demand zone. 🔹 Market Context: The higher timeframe remains bullish, showing strong displacement and multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the upside. Currently, price is consolidating in a range, building liquidity below session lows. Under this liquidity area, there’s a clean Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block (OB), both acting as potential demand zones for a continuation move. 🔹 Trade Idea & Plan: 1️⃣ Wait for Liquidity Sweep: Allow price to take out the equal lows and session liquidity below the current range. This will confirm that liquidity has been collected. 2️⃣ Look for Tap into FVG or OB: Once liquidity is taken, expect price to tap into the FVG or OB zone highlighted on the chart. These are the areas where smart money participants are likely to re-enter long positions. 3️⃣ Wait for LTF Confirmation: After the tap, shift to lower timeframes to identify a BOS or CHOCH signaling bullish intent. This will confirm that buyers are stepping in. 4️⃣ Execution & Target: Enter only after confirmation — no confirmation means no trade. Target the next internal high or swing high, aligning with the overall bullish direction. 🔹 Key Notes: The setup is purely structure and liquidity-based — not driven by sentiment. We wait for the market to sweep liquidity, tap demand, and confirm direction before entering. Patience and confirmation are the main filters that protect capital and improve accuracy. If the market fails to confirm, we simply stay out and wait for the next opportunity. 🔹 Summary: 👉 Liquidity lies below current range lows. 👉 FVG + OB below = strong confluence demand zone. 👉 Wait for LTF CHOCH/BOS for entry confirmation. 👉 Target next high once structure confirms continuation. No confirmation = No trade 🚫 React to the market, don’t predict it 🧠 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is for e ducational purposes only and not financial advice . Always perform your own analysis and use proper risk management before trading.
Long
by TRTINSIGHTS
GBPNZD November 2025 fundamental analysisBritish Pound (GBP): Stagflation Amid Rate Cuts and Fiscal Concerns Monetary Policy Trajectory The Bank of England faces mounting pressure to deliver another rate cut in November, with markets pricing in approximately 75% probability of a 25 basis point reduction. This follows September's inflation reading of 3.8% year-on-year (below the 4.0% consensus) and a surprise uptick in unemployment to 4.5%. Current projections suggest interest rates will decline to around 3.75% by the close of 2025, with two additional reductions anticipated in 2026, eventually bringing rates to approximately 3.25% over the medium term.​ Economic Challenges The UK confronts what economists describe as "the most stagflationary economy in the developed world"—a brutal combination of high inflation, weak growth, and rising unemployment. The upcoming Autumn Budget on November 26 represents a critical inflection point, with Finance Minister Rachel Reeves under pressure to balance fiscal responsibility against growth imperatives.​ Services inflation remains elevated at 4.7%, while core CPI sits at 3.5%, both above the BoE's comfort zone. The labor market is softening, which could prompt the BoE to ease despite persistent inflation concerns. However, some MPC members have expressed caution about reducing rates too rapidly, creating policy uncertainty.​ November Outlook: Bearish The pound's trajectory is decidedly negative for November. The expected BoE rate cut, combined with fiscal tightening signals from the Autumn Budget, creates a challenging environment. GBP/USD forecasts suggest range-bound trading between 1.32-1.38, with downside risks predominating. Against the euro, the pound has already weakened to 0.8765, approaching key support levels. Analysts at RBC Brewin Dolphin note that much of the pound's recent upward movement is actually "more to do with underlying dollar weakness than faith in sterling itself". New Zealand Dollar (NZD): Aggressive Easing Undermines Currency Reserve Bank of New Zealand Actions The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked markets on October 7 with an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022. This represented a departure from the 25-50 basis point split that markets had priced, with the RBNZ citing the need to "restore confidence in an economic recovery that has lost momentum". Since August 2024, the central bank has slashed rates by a total of 300 basis points.​ Markets now fully price in another 25 basis point cut at the November 26 meeting, with expectations for rates to decline to 2.0% by 2026. BNZ's Markets Outlook suggests the terminal OCR for this cycle may be 2.50%, though downside risks remain if the economy continues to disappoint.​ Economic Weakness New Zealand's economy contracted 0.9% in the second quarter, though the RBNZ's nowcast suggests a 0.7% rebound in Q3. However, this reported contraction may overstate economic weakness when considering the positive impact of terms of trade, as evidenced by real gross national disposable income showing 0.9% quarterly expansion and 2.2% annual growth. Nonetheless, the recovery remains subdued, and the trade-weighted index has declined to its lowest level since the April market volatility, sitting below the RBNZ's August projections.​ November Outlook: Very Bearish The New Zealand Dollar faces the most challenging outlook among major currencies. NZD/USD fell to $0.575 following the October RBNZ cut, hitting its lowest level since April. The currency recovered modestly to around 0.5780 by late October, but analysts warn of downside risks with key support at 0.5750 and potentially 0.56 below that. Against the Australian Dollar, NZD/AUD dropped to a three-year low of 0.8758, with further weakness expected given the diverging monetary policy paths. The aggressive RBNZ easing, weak economic fundamentals, and deteriorating terms of trade create a perfect storm for kiwi weakness in November. Verdict This is a comparison of weak against weaker with GBP coming out on top of NZD. Not necessarily due to GBP's inherent strength but rather because of NZD's current weakness and bleak outlook. GBP/NZD is a BUY .
Long
by Oneirotrade