Bitcoin: Holding 106,000 – Retest Risk AheadHello everyone,
After reaching the peak of 109,236 USD, Bitcoin has sharply reversed and entered a clear lower low – lower high structure. The consecutive drops highlight that sellers are still in control, forming multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) along the way — particularly around 115,000 → 112,500 → 109,000 USD. These gaps may act as future pullback targets, but for now, the market bias remains bearish. Price has retreated to 106,770 USD — a strong support zone previously tested multiple times. If selling pressure eases, this could serve as a short-term “technical landing” before Bitcoin attempts a minor recovery.
Looking at the Kumo Cloud, the 109,000–109,200 USD zone stands out as firm resistance. Recent candles repeatedly tapped into the cloud but were pushed down, showing weak buying momentum. As long as the price remains below the Kumo, bullish confirmation is lacking — only a decisive breakout above would signal a potential trend reversal.
On the macro side, the Fed remains firm on its hawkish stance — keeping rates high and showing no signs of cuts anytime soon. This continues to weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin, as capital prefers to stay in USD and bonds. Meanwhile, tightening crypto regulations in the US and Europe have made investors more cautious. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China also dampen global risk appetite, adding further pressure on Bitcoin. The only bright spot lies in the possibility of a short-term USD pullback — if that happens, Bitcoin might stage a technical rebound, though it’s still too early to call for a full bullish cycle.
Based on the current price structure, I lean toward the scenario where Bitcoin extends its decline to test the 105,000–104,500 USD zone — a key support cluster aligned. This area could attract dip-buying interest, but if the market fails to hold above it, a drop toward 102,000 USD becomes likely. In a more bearish scenario — if 104,500 USD is broken without any sign of recovery — Bitcoin may head for the 100,000 USD zone.
