Trader vs Gambler: Why Trading Isn’t GamblingThe Trader vs The Gambler: Why Trading Isn’t Gambling
“Trading is gambling.”
You’ve probably heard it before — from friends, family, or strangers who’ve seen a few flashy headlines, red charts, and crypto hype videos and decided: “It’s all luck.”
To most outsiders, the markets look like chaos — numbers flashing, candles flying, influencers shouting “BUY!” and “SELL!” as emotions run high.
It’s understandable that they think it’s all random chance.
But here’s the truth:
Trading can look like gambling when it’s done like gambling.
When done properly — with education, discipline, and structured risk — trading is a profession built on probability, process, and data.
What Trading Actually Is
Trading is the art and science of buying and selling assets — currencies, commodities, crypto, or stocks — to profit from price movements.
But unlike gambling, trading involves skill, timing, and measurable probabilities.
Professional traders don’t rely on hope — they rely on edges.
An edge is a repeatable setup or condition that statistically produces profits over time.
A real trader studies and uses:
- Price Action & Market Structure: Recognizing higher highs, liquidity zones, supply and demand, and where big players enter or exit.
- Technical Analysis : Tools like moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, volume profiles, VWAP, trendlines, and fair value gaps.
- Fundamental Analysis: Macro data, interest rates, inflation, earnings, tokenomics, project development, and regulatory events.
- Sentiment & Flow: Gauging crowd emotion, open interest, whale activity, and on-chain data.
- Risk Management: Strict position sizing, stop-loss placement, and capital preservation.
- Statistics & Journaling: Tracking setups, win rates, risk-to-reward, and performance over hundreds of trades.
- Discipline & Emotional Control: The ability to not trade when conditions aren’t right.
A trader doesn’t ask, “Will it go up?”
They ask, “If it goes up, what’s my risk? What’s my probability? What’s my plan if I’m wrong?”
That’s not gambling — that’s probability management.
What Gambling Actually Is
Gambling is risking money on an uncertain outcome without any control, edge, or process.
You rely purely on luck — a spin of a wheel, a flip of a card, a random move in a market you don’t understand.
The outcome is fixed against you. In a casino, the house always wins.
A gambler thinks emotionally:
“I have a feeling it’ll go up.”
“My mate said this coin’s going to explode.”
“I’ll double my bet to win it back.”
No analysis. No backtesting. No data. No control.
Just hope — the same force that keeps casinos rich and players broke.
When someone dumps $10,000 into a random altcoin because they saw a tweet or meme, that’s not trading — that’s emotional speculation.
They’re not following a plan; they’re following a crowd.
The Trader’s Mindset vs The Gambler’s Mindset
TRADER:
- Decision Basis: > Data probabilities, confluences
- Goal: > Consistent Long-term growth
- Risk Control: > Defined, Limited, Pre-set
- Emotional State: > Patient, Detached, Focused
- Reaction to loss: > Reviews plan, learns, adjusts
- Education: Studies psychology, risk, analysis
- Funding approach: > Scales up, uses funded accounts
GAMBLER:
- Decision basis:> Emotion, impulse, hype
- Goal: > Quick jackpot
- Risk control: > Undefined, often all-in
- Emotional state: > Fearful, greedy, erratic
- Reaction to loss : > Doubles down or quits
- Education: > Follows noise & influencers
- Funding approach: > Risks personal savings recklessly
A gambler sees “one trade” as the make-or-break moment.
A trader sees “one trade” as part of a thousand trades that define their edge.
Example: The Math of a Trader vs a Gambler
Trader:
Win rate: 55%
Risk-to-reward: 1:2
Risking 1% per trade
After 100 trades, they’re up roughly +55R - 45R = +10R (10% growth).
Their plan, consistency, and edge made it possible.
Gambler:
Win rate: Random, maybe 45%.
Risk-to-reward: 1:1 or worse.
Risking 10–20% per “bet.”
After a handful of losses, they’re wiped out.
There’s no math, no longevity — just emotional chaos.
This is why traders survive, gamblers vanish.
Why Trading Is Not Gambling
1. Trading Has Positive Expected Value (EV)
Gamblers play games with negative EV — odds mathematically stacked against them.
Traders create systems with positive EV by identifying patterns that statistically outperform random chance.
Example:
If your setup wins 55% of the time and earns twice what it risks, your long-term outcome will always be positive.
That’s not luck — that’s math.
2. Trading Has Risk Management
In gambling, you can lose everything on one hand.
In trading, you risk a small percentage per trade.
Professionals risk 0.5–2% of their account per setup.
That’s why they can lose 10 trades in a row and still be in the game.
Gamblers can’t — they blow up because they never manage risk.
3. Trading Uses Control and Data
You can’t “analyze” a roulette spin. You can’t manage risk at a blackjack table.
But in trading, you can backtest, strategize, and control your exposure.
Markets may be uncertain, but traders control their actions within that uncertainty.
Gambling has no such control — it’s fixed odds, rigged in favor of the house.
4. Trading Rewards Skill and Experience
The more you study, journal, and refine your process, the better you get.
No amount of practice makes you better at roulette — the wheel doesn’t care.
But trading rewards time, reflection, and discipline.
Skill matters. Patience matters. Data matters.
5. Trading Has Funding Opportunities
No casino will give you $50,000 to “gamble responsibly.”
But trading firms will give you a $50K, $100K, or $200K funded account — if you prove consistency and discipline.
Funded trading isn’t luck; it’s a business.
You’re rewarded not for profits alone, but for following rules:
- Max daily drawdown
- Overall drawdown limits
- Minimum trading days
- Profit targets
That’s structure — something gambling never has.
Why Use a Funded Account Instead of Your Own $50K?
Because professional trading is not about flexing capital — it’s about proving control.
Funded accounts are training grounds for serious traders:
- You trade with someone else’s capital.
- You’re held accountable to strict limits.
- You’re paid for consistency, not luck.
That’s professionalism.
Gambling is the opposite — no structure, no accountability, and no risk control.
A gambler risks $50K of their own money and hopes for a jackpot.
A trader risks 0.5% of a $50K funded account with a defined plan.
One burns out in a week.
The other builds a track record and earns a living.
The Reality Check: When Trading Does Become Gambling
Trading becomes gambling when:
- You trade without a plan.
- You follow hype or influencers blindly.
- You over-leverage.
- You revenge-trade.
- You skip journaling and analysis.
- You ignore stop losses.
The activity isn’t gambling — the mindset is.
A professional can take the same tool a gambler uses — the same chart, same exchange, same coin — and produce consistent returns, because their intent, process, and control are different.
Real-World Example
Two people open Bitcoin trades at $60,000.
- Trader A: Risks 1%, sets stop at $59,000, target $62,000. Reviews structure, confluences, and volume.
- Trader B: Risks 100% of his savings because “it’ll go up for sure.”
Same entry, same price.
One plays a game of probability, the other a game of hope.
One grows, one disappears.
The chart doesn’t decide who wins — their mindset does.
The Trader’s Mindset
A real trader thinks like a scientist:
- Hypothesis: If price rejects support and volume confirms, it may move up .
- Experiment: Enters small, stops defined.
- Result: Win or loss logged.
- Iteration: Reviews data, improves setup.
Gamblers don’t have hypotheses — they have feelings.
The trader’s mindset is structured:
- Plan before execution.
- Accept losses as data.
- Control risk religiously.
- Focus on consistency over excitement.
Detach emotionally from outcomes.
That’s why traders survive long-term while gamblers chase short-term highs.
“But Crypto Is Just Gambling!”
Crypto can look like gambling — because most people in it treat it like one.
They buy hype, ignore fundamentals, and chase every new shiny coin.
That’s not trading.
Real crypto traders:
- Study tokenomics, development teams, and market sentiment.
- Use technical levels and liquidity maps.
- Manage position sizes and hedge exposure.
- Treat it like a business, not a casino.
The asset class doesn’t make it gambling — your approach does.
Final Thoughts
Yes — both trading and gambling involve risk.
But risk ≠ gambling.
Risk, when managed correctly, equals opportunity .
The difference is control, process, and purpose.
A trader plays the long game with discipline and math.
A gambler plays for emotion and chance.
Anyone can click Buy.
But not everyone can manage risk, follow process, and think in probabilities.
So next time someone says:
“Trading is gambling.”
Show them this:
🎲 Gambling is random.
📊 Trading is calculated.
One depends on luck .
The other depends on discipline .
Thank you all so very much for reading this article, I enjoyed creating it and I hope it becomes of use too you.
If you have any requests on strategies, articles or would like charting done, drop a comment below.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
The Year of the ETF $XRPSpot CRYPTOCAP:XRP ETFs with SEC review dates in October 2025
Grayscale: October 18
21Shares: October 19
Bitwise: October 22
Canary Capital: October 23
CoinShares: October 23
WisdomTree: October 24
GOV Shutdown may have caused delays.
By middle of November we should start seeing massive gains in $XRP.
Wont even mention my target as you can see it on the chart.
I've personally waited a long time for this, I wont sell until we reach where I think we are headed.
I expect cycle to top out by the end of November, beginning of December max.
Bitcoin Eyes $116.6K Breakout Confirmation📊 Market Update — Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)
BTC has successfully confirmed the low time frame zone, holding steady above both the support and volume range, which signals continued short-term strength.
Currently, price action is consolidating within the upper boundary of the range — a sign of buyer absorption before potential expansion.
🔹 Key Level to Watch: $116.6K
This level acts as an important confirmation point — a 1-hour (or higher) close above this zone could validate a breakout continuation, opening the path toward the $120K–$125K range.
If BTC sustains this structure, the bullish momentum remains intact, with low time frame structure aligning with higher trend support.
📈 Bias: Bullish Continuation
🎯 Next Targets: $116.6K → $120K → $125K
$BTC final high = $126k?After the bearish move on Friday that scared everyone out of positions, I think BTC could be setup for a run at new highs.
To me, it looks like price wants to reclaim support levels and make a run at $126k for a final high in this bullish move.
If that level hits, it's a good time to exit longs in the crypto space as I think the rest of the year will be bearish and we'll see new lows.
Let's see how price action plays out over the coming weeks.
BITCOIN — STRUCTURE SHIFT INSIDE BEARISH RANGEBitcoin has filled the 116.3 to 114.9 imbalance and is now trading inside a defined bearish range.
Lower-timeframe structure has shifted downward with significant volume left behind, which suggests this is not a place to buy into strength.
Price has completed the imbalance fill, and the next question is whether this area becomes a market-maker trap or a true continuation leg.
If smart money continues to build short positions, distribution could follow.
If liquidity dries up and buyers absorb, the trap scenario takes shape. Patience remains the correct position.
Focus on the 15-minute to 1-hour range for confirmation. A break of structure, a clean rejection, or a failed retest around 116.3 will define the next directional move.
Until that occurs, any trade inside this zone is a low-probability action.
On the macro side, the U.S. Dollar Index continues higher, signaling risk aversion and tighter global liquidity.
Bitcoin does not move in perfect correlation, but capital still follows the path of safety when the dollar strengthens.
In the current environment, the edge lies in observation and precision, not anticipation.
Let structure confirm before committing. Probabilities always favor the patient.
Deleveraging done, waiting for a 116k confirmation__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC recovered a chunk of Friday’s wipeout and is ranging back below 116k, with leverage reset and volatility still elevated.
Momentum: 📈 Technical rebound but still a range under 116k; upside needs a clean reclaim above 116k.
Key levels:
- Resistances (STF/MTF): 115.8–116.2k (pivot) • 119.9–120.5k • 124–126k (HTF).
- Supports (STF/HTF): 114.0–114.3k • 110.8–111.5k (pivot cluster) • 108.8–109.0k.
Volumes: Very high on 4H/6H during capitulation, only moderate on 1D so far.
Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H filter is Up, while 6H→1H sit in NEUTRE VENTE until 116k is reclaimed; 15m ticks NEUTRE ACHAT only for execution.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Overall NEUTRE VENTE — it contradicts the HTF bullish filter and argues for patience under 116k.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Trading Playbook
__________________________________________________________________________________
Primary stance: higher-timeframe bullish, but capped under 116k — stay progressive and let price confirm.
Global bias: Cautious bullish above 111k with validation >116k; swing invalidation on a daily close <111k.
Opportunities:
- Buy breakout: Go long on 4H/2H close >116.2k targeting 117.8k then 119.9–120.5k.
- Breakout add-on: Add if 118–120k flips to support (pullback holds) toward 122k.
- Tactical sell: Short clean rejections at 115.8–116.2k or loss of 114k, targeting 112.5k/111.1k.
Risk zones / invalidations:
- A confirmed break <111k reopens 108.8k then 105.6k (bullish invalidation).
- Repeated 116–118k rejections with the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator at NEUTRE VENTE favor range fades.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- US–China: 100% tariff rhetoric followed by a softer tone → headline volatility.
- Gold at ATH and Middle-East détente → risk appetite and hedging coexist.
- Fed/BoE: easing bias in the backdrop, but Fed tone remains mixed.
Action plan:
- Long (116.2k breakout): Entry 116.0–116.3k / Stop 114.8k / TP1 117.8k, TP2 119.9–120.5k, TP3 122k • R/R ~2R→3R.
- Short (116k rejection or <114k): Entry 115.6–116.0k or <114.0k / Stop 116.6k / TP1 114.0k, TP2 112.5k, TP3 111.1k • R/R ~1.8R→3R.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
HTFs stay constructive if 111k holds, while mid/low TFs chop below 116k awaiting confirmation.
1D/12H (filter Up): Bullish structure intact above 110.8–111.5k; sustained acceptance >115.8–116.2k opens 118–120k.
6H/4H/2H/1H (NEUTRE VENTE): Range 113.5–116k; 4H/6H “Very High” volume on the flush suggests a base, but no 116.2k close = still defensive.
30m/15m (execution): Compression below 116k; 15m flips NEUTRE ACHAT on trigger. Clean 30m/15m >116.2k + rising volume creates MTF confluence.
Significance: Bullish confluence = defended 111k + 116.2k breakout + expanding volume; divergence = Risk On / Risk Off Indicator stuck NEUTRE VENTE under 116k.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro & On-Chain Drivers
__________________________________________________________________________________
Leverage has been cleansed and macro détente is tentative, supporting the bounce while risk appetite remains selective.
Macro events:
- US–China: 100% tariff headlines then softer messaging; de-escalation possible but reversible.
- Geopolitics: hostage releases/ceasefire signals lower tail risk; gold at a new ATH underscores persistent hedging demand.
- Central banks: BoE leaning to cuts; Fed’s tone mixed despite an easing bias.
Bitcoin analysis:
- Historic leverage flush on Friday, rebound to ~115k from ~111.4k → cleaner positioning.
- Must reclaim 116k then 118–120k before the prior breakdown area below ~122k.
- Flows/treasuries: USDT injections (e.g., 100M to Kraken) and MARA +400 BTC add liquidity, not strictly directional.
On-chain data:
- Massive OI wipe and record liquidations; sentiment back to “Fear”.
- Strong on-chain support 117–120k; above it, confluence improves materially.
Expected impact:
- “Cautious détente” + deleveraging = conditional bullish bias; technically, confirmation is >116k then >118–120k.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
The market stabilized after a record flush, but 116k remains the gatekeeper.
- Trend: HTF bullish, STF neutral until 116k is reclaimed.
- Best setup: Confirmed breakout >116.2k with volume toward 117.8k then 120k.
- Key macro: US–China détente and gold at ATH — supportive yet hedged risk tone.
Stay nimble: act on signals, protect below 114k, and watch 111k as swing invalidation.
Post Flash-Crash BTC Despite such a large sell-off event, has the outlook on BTC actually changed? Structurally BTC remains very much rangebound with two clearly definable halves of the range. That is until Fridays move off the back of a Tariff Tweet from President Trump causing a liquidation event similar to that of April earlier this year and the Covid crash of 2020.
Bitcoin was less effected when compared to altcoins as is usually the case, some majors dropping as much as 80% in a single 1h candle! An entire bear market in an afternoon. Bitcoin on most exchanges fell roughly 20% on the news and eventually found support at range lows ($100,000), a significant amount of this drop got bought up and so BTC finds itself hovering around range midpoint.
To me this is a no trade zone initially, there is no clear directional bias that is actionable at this time but I am looking for clues as to where price may be going next:
- Should BTC stay above midpoint the next clear resistance level is 0.75 ($117,605). On the lower time frames the trend is bearish, 0.75 would be a good place for the bears to defend.
- A loss of the midpoint would open the door to backfilling the wick, this could get ugly as on the higher time frames a new lower low and price acceptance lower would signal a bearish shift in structure. Calls for "the top is in" will get much louder and so will the 4 year cycle theory comparisons.
- A V-shaped recovery and move straight to the highs would be max pain after such a brutal move down. Although IMO it's the least likely I would not rule it out.
Bitcoin: Bull Trend Intact, Wedge Breakout Setting UpWe’re pivoting back to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) this week after its recent breakout to fresh all-time highs. It’s a strong reminder that the broader trend remains bullish, and the bulls are still very much in control.
🔍 On the daily chart, we’re watching a new wedge formation develop. BTC is currently consolidating just beneath a major resistance zone. A break and daily close above the $124K–$125K range would likely confirm the next leg of this bull cycle.
📈 If the breakout holds, the measured move from the wedge projects a rally into the $138K–$140K zone. That’s our near-term upside target, contingent on momentum and confirmation.
📉 On the downside, support holds firm between $112K–$114K. As long as price remains above this level, the path of least resistance is still higher.
BIGGEST Crypto Liquidation TO DATE - Market CorrectsToday and yesterday over the past few hours, $19 billion dollars was wiped out in crypto. This is historic. And also a lesson in risk management, an eerie reminder of how risky speculation can be.
The market was over leveraged , and this is the result.
How can we monitor/ safeguard against this going ahead and be prepared for such an event in the future?
1) Always use a stop loss
2) Watch Bid/Ask spread and volatility
3) Use proper risk management
On the 10th of October, POTUS Donald Trump Tweeted about a new set of trade measures that include 100% tariff on certain Chinese exports, and new stricter export controls. The market immediately reacted; stocks and commodities dropped and crypto fell into chaos. What made this worse is that several exchanges were down, resulting in investors being unable to close or update their positions.
It seems like a fitting "reason" and also not, oddly. What we need to note here, is that the market was over leveraged. This is a self-correcting event that presents truer market reflections and better prices for investors - a blessing for those who were not affected/invested.
As an extra measure if you trade S&P500, you could watch the VIX - and set an indicator to any daily change greater than 15%-20%. This way, you'll be notified if there's action in the stock market.
You can also take a look at this idea on Risk vs Reward:
BTCUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE Bitcoin is currently consolidating around a strong support zone, where buyers have previously stepped in to push prices higher. The recent price action shows signs of accumulation and slowing bearish momentum, indicating that the market could be preparing for a potential bullish reversal.
If the price continues to hold above this support and forms a bullish candle pattern (like a higher low or engulfing candle), it could confirm buyers regaining control.
Volume activity also suggests that selling pressure is fading, while buyers are gradually absorbing liquidity from lower levels.
As long as Bitcoin remains above this key support area, the structure stays bullish, and the next impulse move to the upside could be expected once momentum confirms.
BITCOIN SIGNAL: ROUND 2 OF CRASH INCOMING!!!? (watch out) Yello Paradisers! Enjoy the video!
And Paradisers! Keep in mind to trade only with a proper professional trading strategy. Wait for confirmations. Play with tactics. This is the only way you can be long-term profitable.
Remember, don’t trade without confirmations. Wait for them before creating a trade. Be disciplined, patient, and emotionally controlled. Only trade the highest probability setups with the greatest risk to reward ratio. This will ensure that you become a long-term profitable professional trader.
Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.
BITCOIN Bullish Correction Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN taps into a horizontal demand area after sharp decline, signaling a potential bullish reversal. Smart Money likely accumulating positions before expansion toward 116,800$ to rebalance inefficiency. Time Frame 4H.
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #195👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s move on to Bitcoin analysis. Yesterday, price started an upward move, so let’s see what triggers we have today.
⌛️ 1-Hour Timeframe
Yesterday, price found support at our key zone and also activated the 112,420 risk trigger we had identified.
✨ If you opened a position, it’s not a bad time to take profits, since this was a risky setup, and such positions should be managed quickly.
🧮 Currently, a resistance high has formed around 115,698. If this level breaks, price could continue its upward movement.
💫 As long as price stays above 112,420, this trigger remains active and can be used to open positions.
✔️ For shorts, I personally won’t be taking any until price breaks below 107,000 and stabilizes under that zone.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Today's Crypto Slaughter 11.10.2025I want you to look closely at this chart. These aren't just lines and candles. This is a timeline of warnings. September 12th, 23th, 30th, October 6th, October 10th—I was screaming that the top was in. I told you I was getting out of the market.
For this, I received more hate than I have in my entire career. 90% of the comments disagreed with me. But I knew what I was signing up for. I wanted to warn you. And I am grateful to those who listened.
And today, we saw the price the market pays for euphoria.
This Isn't a Meme. This is a Tragedy
Today was not just a "liquidity grab." It was the robbery of 1.6 million traders for $10 billion.
And these are not just numbers. Today, a trader I knew from competitions, Kostya Kudo, took his own life. This is no longer a joke. This is not a meme. People are dying. The best are leaving. We cannot watch this like it's some internet meme while real lives are being destroyed.
How Did This Happen? The Anatomy of a Perfect Storm
Of course, someone dumped a large volume. But why was the fall so deep and so fast?
Cascading Liquidations: The first wave of selling triggered a chain reaction.
A Vacuum in the Order Book: I've known this since 2019. During crashes like this, market makers simply switch off their algorithms to avoid losing money. They pull their liquidity. The order book becomes empty. Any sell order moves the price down by hundreds, thousands of dollars. This isn't a market. It's a vacuum.
The Exchanges Are the Winners: Where are those $10 billion now? With the centralized exchanges. And no one will be compensated. You'll just be told, "Manage your risk next time."
Why This Is Only the Beginning. The Road to the Bottom
I cannot be liquidated. I am entirely in stablecoins, just as I said I would be. I am tired of this aggressive environment.
But why am I certain we are going lower?
Only futures traders have been liquidated so far. But there is an army of players using leverage through collateral. They collateralize BTC/ETH, receive stablecoins, buy more BTC/ETH with them, and collateralize again... creating a pyramid. They are waiting for BTC at $200k.
With a 40-60% drop from the peak, this pyramid will begin to collapse, causing a new wave of forced selling. The bottom, by my calculations, will be around $60,000 - $65,000.
And who needs these liquidations? The major financial players who need a good entry point. They don't buy at the highs. They buy on blood.
An Address to Every Trader
I want to speak to every one of you. Analysts, traders, investors, speculators. You work alone. One-on-one with your decisions, with your problems, in front of a screen.
I have immense respect for everyone who has stepped onto this path. You have entered a hostile environment where the smartest algorithms and entire corporations want to take your money.
I am disappointed myself. I was expecting an "altseason" that never came. And I admitted it in time: "Altseason" is a scam. A meme that no longer works with a million coins on the market. This isn't a flip-flop. I was following my plan: stay in until September.
To those who are waiting for the market to fly up now "without the excess baggage"—good luck. I am not participating in that. I will return to active buying closer to September 2026.
Who is left to push the market up? The 1.6 million liquidated traders? The traders who are no longer with us?
This post is not gloating. It is pain. And it is a final warning. Protect yourselves and your capital.
Best Regards EXCAVO
Bitcoin Consolidation Before Possible Bullish Breakout📉 Bearish Side
Three red arrows at the top highlight strong sell-offs (likely resistance or rejection points).
The price retraced sharply after each red arrow, showing dominant bearish momentum earlier.
Currently, BTC is struggling below major moving averages (red and blue lines), which act as resistance.
🧱 Support Levels
First Support: Near current consolidation area — short-term buyers defending this level.
Second Support: Lower zone — potential for another retest if price breaks first support.
Last Support: The lowest green arrow — a strong accumulation zone, possible bottom.
These levels form a triple-layer support structure, meaning a breakdown below the last support could signal further downside, but holding above could confirm reversal potential.
📈 Bullish Outlook (Green Path Projection)
If BTC maintains above the 1st or 2nd support, the chart suggests:
Minor pullback → rebound → breakout above the short-term resistance zone.
Possible trend reversal toward neutral to positive territory (as the arrow shows up to +1% zone).
$BTC Trend Continues.Bitcoin is still holding onto its upward trend. The recent move should be seen as a healthy correction within the main uptrend. After being rejected from the supply zone, the price got a strong bounce off the major demand zone, showing that buyers are still in control.
Short-term fluctuations are essentially noise, especially for those not engaging in margin trading. The macro trend remains positive; such pullbacks serve as fuel for the next run.
BTC remains strong, trend up, momentum alive.
BITCOIN Short squeeze in action with 1W MA50 saving the day?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is rebounding rather as aggressively as it flash crashed on Friday following President Trump's threats on new China tariffs. We've seen the outcome of such Trade War threats back in February - April. In fact that was the last time (April 09 2025) that BTC hit its 1W MA50 (red trend-line). Following that, an enormous long-term rally followed that made new All Time Highs (ATH).
Friday was the first time since then that the price almost touched the 1W MA50, while breaking through the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 22. Friday's Low is so far technically a Higher Low on the 1-year Rising Wedge pattern.
The more U.S. and China seem to agree on a new truce and not move forward to escalate threats into actions, the stronger the current short squeeze will be in the market and the current rally will most likely target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Rising Wedge on the key psychological level of $130000.
If however it appears that agreements fall through and the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Rising Wedge breaks, we expect a deeper and potentially more aggressive fall to he 1W MA100 (green trend-line) around $85000. It also has to be mentioned that Friday's Low hit the 1D RSI 4-month Support Zone and rebounded.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bearish Short SetupHello everyone, Kilian here.
Let’s take a closer look at BTCUSD with a logical and structured approach.
Currently, the market is showing a classic bearish formation. The price has broken through a key support level and the first signs of dominant short-side pressure are already visible. This is not just noise but a signal that short positions are gaining control.
After the breakdown, the market is pulling back to retest the broken area. In technical analysis, such a retest often confirms that the bearish momentum is intact and that short traders remain in charge.
Given this context, it is unlikely that BTCUSD will recover the old support, which now acts as resistance. A rejection from this level could trigger the next short-driven move, with a projected target around 118,200.
Unless a strong reversal emerges, the probability remains in favor of continued downside pressure.
Stay disciplined, follow the signals carefully, and remember that in trading, logic and risk management always outperform emotions.
Everyone’s Bullish Again… But Is Bitcoin Ready?As I explained in yesterday’s post , even though I want to stay bullish — partly because I still hold a bag of altcoins — the overconfidence across the market makes me cautious.
Everyone seems convinced that “the bottom is in.” and history tells us that when sentiment becomes one-sided, it’s often premature.
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1. Recent Price Action
Bitcoin indeed reversed from a key support zone and managed to recover part of Friday’s losses.
However, so far, this looks more like a technical rebound than a return of genuine buying power.
Momentum remains fragile, and price is still struggling.
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2. Key Technical Levels
• Resistance: The $118K horizontal level followed by the $120K psychological barrier remain decisive.
Only a clear breakout above these zones would signal renewed bullish control.
• Support: On the downside, failure to hold above $110K would likely trigger a new leg lower, erasing the recent optimism.
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3. Outlook
The structure is neutral-to-bearish until Bitcoin confirms strength above $118K–$120K.
Until then, this bounce should be treated as a reaction, not a reversal.
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Bottom line:
I still want to be bullish — but I’ll follow the chart, not the crowd.
Confirmation first, conviction later. 🚀
BTC – Bounce Off Daily Support, Eyes on Supply!Bitcoin has bounced from the daily support area (the broad green zone around $110K–$112K), reclaiming the intraday breakdown zone near $114K and turning it into support on lower timeframes.
As long as price holds above $112K–$113K, the short-term bias remains constructive and I am looking for continuation toward $118K, followed by the $121K–$122K supply zone highlighted on the chart.
The bulls will remain in control as long as the $107,500 mark holds as support.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and manage risk.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr.
BTC 117.70K determines the next stepMorning folks,
So, old Donny has put dirt to everybody... of course we were watching for the drop, as we discussed it on Thu, but it should had to be just a pullback. Obviously we got no entry signal on Friday collapse.
Now there are a few interesting patterns are forming monthly/weekly charts, but it is a different story. Here we suggest to give market some time to calm down. In fact, daily price shape is very similar to huge Bearish engulfing pattern. So, we do not exclude some downside continuation if BTC holds below 170.70K resistance area. In fact, this is the key to the next step.
Upside breakout of this area will erased the whole Friday's collapse, and mostly will be bullish...
But right now we do not consider any trades.
BTC 15M Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 55☃️ Welcome to the cryptos winter , I hope you’ve started your day well.
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 15-Minutes timeframe .
👀 On the 15-minute timeframe for Bitcoin, we can see that after breaking out and consolidating above the $114,351 zone, BTC began moving upward and is now trading within a 15-minute range. A breakout from this range could trigger the next move. The top of this trading range sits at $115,715 and the bottom at $114,750 — breaking and holding beyond either level could start a strong leg for Bitcoin as the new week begins.
🧮 The RSI oscillator on the 15-minute timeframe shows Bitcoin currently moving within a range capped at 64 on the top and 42 on the bottom. A breakout from this RSI range could significantly increase buying or selling momentum, adding fuel to Bitcoin’s next move.
🕯 The size, volume, and count of green candles have increased since the flash crash, and institutions like BlackRock, World Liberty, and Trump-aligned funds have been averaging solid buy positions. With rising buying volume, Bitcoin could break through its ticker-seller resistance at $115,715 and continue its bullish move following the recent dramatic flash crash.
🔍 Despite concerns like the ongoing U.S.–China economic (tariff) war, the market remains in a risk-off mode on higher timeframes. If entering trades, we aim to manage capital across multiple entries — for example, allocating only 0.25% risk per position or averaging in gradually.
🧠 Two trading scenarios are considered for Bitcoin, both offering clear opportunities for structured entries.
↗️ Long scenario (breakout above the range):
If Bitcoin breaks above $115,715 with rising buy volume and RSI crossing above 64, it could initiate another strong bullish leg toward higher resistance levels.
📉 Short scenario (breakdown below the range):
If the micro-buyer support at $114,750 — a key demand zone — breaks, Bitcoin may extend its correction downward. This move should coincide with RSI losing the 42 level and increasing sell volume. Note: in short positions, take profits quickly and maintain tight risk-to-reward control.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .






















