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Bitcoincycle

BITCOIN now in Cycle ATH Zone but is BTC still in Cycles ?I first drew this chart back in 2024 and it is amaxing how things have played out, The Numbers in Grey boxes are the number of Days the 50 SMA ( red) has been above and below PA. The Blue, Below PA is the day count for PA Cycle High to cycle Low and Back to Cycle high. We have already past the "High Low" Day count for this cycle ATH and we are now on the Zone for the 50 SMA day count ATH. The peojected date for this ATH is 13 October. Note how Similar PA & 50 SMA is in the 2013 - 2017 Cycle. I was also running a PA Fractal chart showing similarities to PA and we can see how close it was until February this year For me, the reason we went "Flat" from February onwards is simly because of the Long Term resistance over head.... a line that has rejected EVERY Bitcoin ATH = this is all explained in previous posts. See the Blue Arc. It is that Blue Arc we need to Cross over. This Arc has kept PA Flat this cycle...... Looking at a Zoomed in Chart, we can see how that 50 SMA is a line of strong support. Should PA retreat, the 50 SMA is at around 103K at this time. The MACD is just under but in a zone where PA has retreated from This does NOT automatical Mean PA will Drop from here. Though on lower Time Frames, MACD is up High in Oversold. However, as the 4 hour shows us, It is already dropping from OverSold and yet PA has hit a high Divergence is in play One thing that dies hint at a pull back is the RSI being up in Oversold on a Daily chart But it should be understood, RSI Can range High or Low So, are we in Cycle Still ? If we are, we should expect a beginning of a BEAR market in the next few weeks. But we have not really seen the "Top" pattern and Profit taking yet..... Until that happens, I really am inclined to believe we have broken the cycle patterns.for a number of reasons. For instance, the MVRV Z Score This has not even past the levels seen in previous Runs BUT as a precaution, it is worth noting that Dash orange line, that starts where the Nov 2021 ATH Was. We have been rejected from that level already this run But we Still have room to get back up to that level at the mooment. The Main reason i feel things are different are that Blue Arc I mentioned earlier. We HAVE to break above that and remain there..... We are too close at this moment and a Bear market WILL take us back below that HUGE line of Very Very Strong resistance. The Daily chart below shows this We need one more push to take us Higher, to give us Room to remain above, even when Bitcoin Does correct . Note that 3 Fin extension on the last chart posted. We just got above the 6. We need to Rise far enough over that for it to act as support ewhn retested. 3, 6, 9 9 Fib extension at around 180K Just saying NEW CYCLES ARE BEGINNING
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Orriginal
1
The Bear Market Isn't Coming? Old BTC Playbook is a TrapFor years, traders have relied on Bitcoin's predictable cycles. We look for the same clues, the same topping signals, and the same patterns. But what if the market has evolved? What if the playbook we've all been studying is now a trap? This analysis dives deep into key indicators across all three major bull runs, comparing the RSI, MACD, Volume, and especially the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP). The data suggests that while some classic bearish signals are flashing, the market's underlying structure is telling a very different, and potentially much more bullish, story. A Tale of Two Cycles: The Historical Baseline To understand where we are, we must first look back. The First Bull Run (2015-2017): This cycle was defined by raw, explosive power. The weekly RSI crossed above 80 a staggering four times. However, the end was confusing. We had bearish RSI divergences fighting against bullish MACD. The primary exit signals were a massive spike in selling volume and a BBWP reading that finally hit 94%, signaling trend exhaustion. It was effective, but messy. The Second Bull Run (2018-2021): This cycle top was much clearer and became the "classic" model for many traders. The RSI crossed 80 only twice, and the end was signaled by a textbook combination of: Classic bearish divergences on the RSI and MACD. Obvious selling pressure at the top. Crucially, the BBWP spectrum crossed 90% three separate times, screaming trend exhaustion before the final downturn. The Current Cycle: A New Breed of Bull 📈 Now, let's analyze our current cycle, which began in November 2022. On the surface, some things look familiar, but the engine of this trend is behaving in a completely unprecedented way. The Familiar Signs (The Bear Case): Yes, we can see a classic bearish divergence forming on both the RSI and MACD. Furthermore, the recent buying volume, while still okay, is showing signs of weakness compared to the explosive start of the rally. This is what is causing many analysts to call for a cycle top, just like before. The Unprecedented Anomalies (The Bull Case): This is where it gets interesting and why the old playbook may fail. No BBWP Exhaustion: Unlike the (2015-2017) (2018-2021) bull runs, the BBWP spectrum has not crossed 90% a single time during this entire uptrend. The volatility has never reached the levels of euphoria and exhaustion that marked previous tops. The trend, while strong, has not shown signs of being "finished." The Contraction Anomaly: This is the most compelling signal on the chart. Historically, a major BBWP contraction (the indicator squeezing down) signals that energy is building for a massive expansion in price. This event has almost always marked the beginning of a new bull phase or the start of a major move up. Yet, here we are at the supposed end of the cycle, and the BBWP is contracting again. This has never happened at a cycle peak before. This odd behavior suggests that instead of winding down, the market could be coiling up for another powerful move, Also the number of contractions in this cycle is much higher than the pervious cycles which explains the elliot waves unexpected targets Elliott Wave Strength: While I have not drawn the Elliott Wave count here because every trader's interpretation can be subjective, my personal count indicates that the current wave structure is targeting prices significantly higher than the current all-time high. Summary and Final Thoughts To summarize, while we have some classic, textbook bearish signals that would have marked the top in (2018-2021), we also have powerful, unprecedented evidence suggesting this cycle is different. The lack of a BBWP exhaustion signal (>90%) is a major deviation from the last 2 cycle top. The current BBWP contraction at a "cycle end" is a massive anomaly. This is typically a pre-trend signal, not an end-of-trend signal, and could be hinting at a major breakout ahead. This is not a guarantee of a continued bull run, but rather a data-driven observation that the market is showing a structure we haven't seen before. Relying solely on the old playbook could be a mistake. The market is evolving, and our analysis must evolve with it. I have marked every anomaly and pattern on the chart, You can zoom in and analyze for yourself I'm open to all discussions and opinions in the comments Trade safe and keep an open mind.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoShip0
33
Bitcoin Cycle Analysis – The Fourth TurningThe dominant cycle identified here is ~292 bars, which has consistently marked major pivots in Bitcoin’s price action. Each cycle builds in intensity, and according to fractal theory, the fourth turning often delivers the most severe correction. At present, BTC is pressing against the upper bounds of this dominant cycle. If the cycle roadmap continues to hold, we are now in the early stages of the declining phase, with downside risk extending into the mid-to-lower support zones. Key Insight: In fractal cycle analysis, the fourth turning is often the most devastating one. If this pattern repeats, the coming downswing could be sharper and deeper than previous declines, preparing the ground for the next major cycle low. Caution is warranted as both fractal and cycle models are flashing warnings that this market may be in the process of topping out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Kenayi
Don't miss the final BTC Rocket of this cycle !!!When it dips, get ready to jump in! BTC is about to moon this cycle 🚀 See you at $124k! No more retesting $104k — even breaking below $107k looks tough now. Get ready to ride the final wave of this cycle!!! 💰 If you don’t have any position yet, now's a good time to enter your first one. BTC just broke through the legendary EMA200. As for me, I’ve been buying and selling along the way, locking in profits during this uptrend. Spot portfolio’s running, options are live, and the futures with x20 leverage — I’m running it, but trying not to get too reckless 😛 For those already holding — stay strong and enjoy being rich. #BePatientStayCalm #LifeHackTrader
BINANCE:BTCUSD.P
by seono1
Bitcoin Rally Entering Final Stages!Bitcoin Bull Cycle Analysis: Historically, Bitcoin has moved in clearly defined market cycles, each lasting roughly 1,064–1,065 days (about 3 years) from bottom to peak, followed by a sharp correction. 2013–2017 Cycle 🔶Bitcoin bottomed in early 2015 and then entered a strong bull run. 🔶Over the next 1,064 days, Bitcoin surged by more than 12,000%, ultimately peaking in late 2017. 🔶After the peak, Bitcoin experienced an 84% decline over the following year, entering a prolonged bear market. 2017–2021 Cycle 🔶From the December 2018 bottom, Bitcoin again began a long bull phase. 🔶In the next 1,064 days, Bitcoin gained over 2,000%, reaching a new all-time high in late 2021. 🔶Similar to the previous cycle, the market corrected sharply, with Bitcoin losing around 76% of its value within a year. 2021–2025 Cycle (Current) 🔶The most recent bottom was recorded in late 2022. Since then, Bitcoin has been in a sustained uptrend. 🔶As of today, the cycle has lasted 1,000+ days, during which Bitcoin has appreciated by roughly 675%. 🔶If the historical pattern continues, this bull run may have about two months left before reaching a cycle peak. 🔶Afterward, the market could undergo a significant correction, potentially in the range of 60–70%, though smaller than previous drops. Conclusion : Bitcoin’s market history shows a repeating cycle of multi-year bull runs followed by sharp corrections. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the consistency in cycle length and the pattern of diminishing corrections suggest that Bitcoin may soon approach its next major peak. If the trend holds, a significant pullback of 60–70% could follow, offering both risks for late entrants and opportunities for long-term investors. This highlights the importance of caution, disciplined risk management, and strategic planning as we near the potential end of the 2021–2025 bull cycle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by HexaTrades
6
BTC Macro Top or Supercycle Ahead?Bitcoin’s long-term price action, alongside the monthly RSI, shows a repeating pattern at major cycle tops. Historically, whenever the RSI reached the descending resistance trendline (Above 85 level) , Bitcoin entered a cycle peak followed by a correction. Currently, the RSI is once again approaching this key level, raising the question of whether history will repeat or if BTC can finally break through this long-term resistance. Historical Pattern: 🔷 2013: RSI touched the upper trendline → BTC entered a cycle peak, followed by a deep correction. 🔷 2017: Once again, RSI hit the resistance → marked the bull market top. 🔷 2021: RSI faced rejection at the same line → led to a prolonged bear market. Now, in 2025–2026, RSI is climbing back toward this resistance level, and the big question remains: Will Bitcoin break the cycle, or repeat history? Key Points: 🔶 CRYPTOCAP:BTC has respected this RSI downtrend at previous market cycle tops (2013, 2017, 2021). 🔶 Price is trading near all-time highs while RSI nears historical resistance. 🔶 A breakout above this RSI trendline could signal a new phase of strength. 🔶 A rejection would suggest another cyclical cooling phase. Conclusion Bitcoin is at a macro decision point. For over a decade, this RSI trendline has defined cycle tops. A confirmed breakout would mark a historic shift in BTC’s market structure, while another rejection could mean history repeats. Cheers Hexa BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDC
INDEX:BTCUSD
by HexaTrades
Interesting Fib retrace info could help understand the next bear Nessy chart initily but I have broken it down here and it will be easy to understand Also, to make it ckearer to see, I have used a line for the PA..the retracements and % pull backs are accurately placed using the candles.... So, an interesting thing appeared when I was laying with Fib Replacements. Simply put, From 2013 ATH to the next Low was a -78.27 % pull back to the 0.236 Fib retracement From 2013 ATH to the next Low was a -82.20 % pull back to the 0.382 Fib retracement From 2013 ATH to the next Low was a -76.40 % pull back to the 0,5 Fib retracement So, after each ATH, PA pulled back to the next step down from previous fib retracement, while pulling back approx the same % Shuold Bitcoin do the same again, whichh would Scare a Lot of people, we could expect to see a pull back to the 0.768 Fib retracement...and using a near -80 % pull back, we would end up around 24K Low in Nov 2026 Will this happen ? Who know and I doubt it but until things and patterns change in the way Bitcoin runs its 4 year cycles, then it is a possibility. But I found it fasinating how yet anoterh sequence occured in the last 3 cycles that Bitcoin has performed. Nothing else has ever done this..... So, Lets see if it repeats
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN has broken Free - The Next cycle type begins- WHY ? I have been talking about the Blue Arc of resistance for a while now. The ARC that has rejected EVERY ATH since Bitcoin began its true rise in Value back in 2011. I am not going to get to technical right now as I have had only 1 coffee..lol.. Lets begin I have 3 charts with this Arc on , all slightly different so as to allow for small errors in plotting or calculation. ALL charts now show PA Above the Arc. Why is this so important ? As previously explained, that Blue Arc is a part of a Calculated Fibonacci Spiral. Calculated from Each ATH to the next and using the difference as a part of that calculation, I was able to pinpoint the centre of this Arc. And here is the Full picture. What I am finding a little interesting is how that centre is on MARCH 2020 - That Sudden and worrying COVID CRASH ! But that is a subject for another time. The Two important things to take of here is how PA began rising on this spiral as soon as PA entered it ( Left ) and unless we broke out of it now, PA would have been dragged back down by December. The time spent inside this spiral are the cumulative years of Bitcoin. It is also very interesting how the 3 "Cycles " we have had in this channel. have ended perfectly at that intersection of the Blue Arc and the underlying line of support, that PA has not dropped below since we entered the channel back in 2012 To me, that is more than just a coincidence. And if we look at a smaller time frame, we can see that PA has broken over this Arc, with strength. The Daily chart above does show us that we do still have challenges ahead. For instance, there is that line of local resistance just above, that could , under the right circumstances, push PA back down with vengeance should the Bears take over. But I do not think that will happen yet but it would be nice if we could climb over that and use it as support. We have done on 2 previous occasions this cycle but each time, we got pushed back under. 3rd time lucky ? The 4 hour chart gives hope. Here we can see how that Blue Arc was used as support but once it failed, the Bulls were Quick to get back over. To me, this shows us that the Bulls have every intention of keeping Bitcoin High and above that Blue Arc. But the longer we wait to get over that local line of resistance above, and use as support, the further away it Gets. Currently, the Target to get over that lline is around 140K Near Term projections of PA, in a bullish run, are around 160K -> 180K This would give PA that underlying line of support. So, we wait to see how this plays out but THE MOST IMPORTANT THING ? We Must remain above that line, the Blue Arc....that currently sits around 115 -118K The Next Few weeks are VITAL and I remind you..August has nearly twice as many RED monthly closes as Green..Unless it is in a Bull run....;-) The Daily RSI has room to move still but is High The Weekly RSI is Similar in hieght, with room to move. So, We could be in a good position to start that New Cycle type, out of the Spiral that Created Bitcoin as we now know it. The 4 year Flow could change as mass adoption takes pace and People simply do not Buy / Sell as we used to do. But it is impossible to really know whats coming. We can only watch and learn. We may well end up having the 4 year cycles again. After all, that gave us superb profit making opportunities. Or will Bitcoin become the Store of Value, the Digital Gold ? Time will tell. Have a good week and stay safe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Bitcoin Macro Cycles: Sell Signal at RSI 90Bitcoin’s historical market cycles, using monthly RSI data to identify previous bull market peaks. Notable tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 are highlighted, with the next potential peak projected around October 2025. A consistent pattern emerges where each market top aligns with the monthly RSI reaching or nearing the 90 level, indicating extremely overbought conditions. Sell when the monthly RSI hits 90. This has consistently marked previous market tops and can serve as a reliable signal for long-term investors.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by HexaTrades
Bitcoin closed week RED but that is OK, it was closeFor the last 3 weeks, Bitcoin has been in a tight range and each candle has been small body and long wicks, showing indecision and uncertainty This close up chart shows how these 3 weekly candles have occurred at the intersection of a Fib circle (blue) and This alone could explain these "wicky" candles... The Bulls have been fighting hard to keep PA up and to not let it slide down that fib circle, as is normal the majority of the time. . We shall find out this week because, now, there is not a lot to stop the Bulls trying harder. The FED will let us know the decision on interest rates on 18th. This will likely cause a reaction in markets and I think we are most likely to see Rates remain static. PA is currently on Support and remains above the 2.618 Fib extension. All is Good The MVRV (Green) and Z Score (yellow) can be complicated to fully understand but what is important to understand here is how the Yellow Z Score is still above the Green MVRV. this remains Bullish. We should notice how Both are falling and we wait for them to cross back over that falling line of resistance. Currently, This chart shows us that Bitcoin has a slightly undervalued price. The higher we go, the more Oversold, Undervalued/ the top is the opposite, overbought / over valued. The MACD is showing us a s;light levelling off For me, I think this is similar to what we saw in the end of 2024. The MACD may go back down to the Red signal line and bounce....Again, we have to wait and see. Remember, that just because MACD drops, BTC PA does not always follow. We can range across instead Over all, I am still Bullish long term but we may see some continued uncertainty in this market. The FED decision later this week will have an impact for sure Bitcoin remains strong though but should circumstances allow, we could revisit 90K on that trend line below current position. I am not to sure this will happen but a good idea t be ready if it does. What is certain is how PA has never really been in such a "soft" controlled action. The nearest we have is way back in 2016 to 2016. At this time period, we also saw BTC PA rise in a slow steady rise, no sharp pushes higher till the final push to ATH. Currently, we seem to have repeated a similar Acton though. now, for longer So, we wait and we will find out..
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin life cycle-stage One ending-Next cycle has to start NOW There are 3 things to see in this chart 1) The Orange Arc of resistance. I have talked about this previously but to recap a little, it has its origins in Oct 2009 and has rejected EVERY ATH since then, as you can see on the chart. The Arc itself is part of a Fibonacci Spiral. This Arc has begun to Squeeze PA against the lower trend line, that was formed in 2011. And we are now in a position where PA MUST react or get pushed below the Long Term line of support. This could be called Make or Break time for Bitcoin. The Apex of this pennant is around Jan 2026 PA always reacts before the Apex.....99% of the time. 2) The Vertical Coloured bars are Trend Based Fibonacci Time, It begins on the 1st ATH in the channel that Bitcoin created. This channel is shown in the chart below See how the Runs to the 2017 & 2021 ATH were all in a Bullish Green zone and how PA never retouched the lower trend line of support in this time Since Mid 2021, we entered a Bearish Zone. On the main chart, you will notice how this Fib Time has just ended. 3) The Trend based Fibonacci Extensions. Every single ATH rejected off a Fib extension. The Root is at the 2009 Low and 1 is at the First ATH in the Bullish Fib time Zone. The numbers here are all based off the 3,6,9 number sequence. Lets look a little closer at the weekly chart As we can see, PA got repeatably rejected off this orange Arc of Resistance and Current PA has been up there, trying to break through since 2024. Many people have also commented on how PA has been so subdued this cycle and could this be reflected in the Fib Time showing us that we are in a Red Bearish Zone. See how, from Mid 2021, when we entered a Strong Red zone, PA took a Deep dive off the Nov 2021 ATH. Also note how this zone ended in late 2022 and in Jan 2023, PA began its current cycle Run. See the change in Colour ? And Currently, while Bitcoin tries to break out of this squeeze, we were in a Red zone again....that just ended. AND we can also see that we have not yet reached the 6 Fib Extension at 120,251 usd The situation we face here is that if PA gets rejected off that Fib line, having just broken through the Arc, we could get pushed right back down under the Arc again. It is VERY STRONG RESISTANCE This next move from Bitcoin HAS to be strong enough to take us up to the 9 fib line at 180,391 usd at a minimum. This way we can use the 6 Fib extension as support when PA cools off from a big push and so remain above the Arc and begin the Next long term cycle. The Daily chart below shows us where we are right now You can see how PA has repeatably tried to break above the Arc and been rejected Firmly Every time...so far, PA has avoided going right back down to the Lower trend line and has remained in near distance to this Arc..But we are running out of Time. Recent attempts by PA have been Strong and I am sure that we will make it over but the real question is can we also get over that 6 Fib extension and stay above. The weekly MACD certainly has enough strength to cope Should we have a subdued Summer trading on Bitcoin, we will see this MACD cool off and be stronger before a sustained push near Autumn maybe. To conclude, Bitcoin is under pressure to move out of its First Full Cycle. It is getting Squeezed and now it is time for Bitcoin to prove it can cope with its new found "Adulthood" The Next Big push, maybe later in the year, could very realistically reach 200K or more and this would place us Above that 9 Fibonacci extension I talked about earlier. Of course, events could change and we could see PA collapse back below the Arc. If this happens, all is NOT lost but it would certainly weaken the case for Long Term holders to continue doing so. This then could create a Snownall effect and prices may tumble....And I will buy MORE.... Either way, we are in a HUGE moment for Bitcoin and I am privileged to be able see this all unfold... Lets see what happens but, for me, I am Still VERY Bullish though Cautious.... We may have to revisit low 70K in the near future if Pa cannot get over this Arc and the 6 Fib extension
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN 5 lines and 3 indicators to watch now we in new ground I will be presenting a number of charts here and each has a different story to tell right now. The 5 lines are All valid trend lines. The Vertical lines are January year markers The white line at the bottom is th e long term support line from 2013 The Dotted line is a threshold line The Blue Arc is a line that has rejected EVERY ATH since 2013 The orange line is a marker that, once crossed has Always led to a New cycle ATH The upper dashed line is the line of rejection of all ATH since 2017 The Weekly Bitcoin PA chart Here we can clearly see how that Blue Arc has rejected PA previously. We can see how PA has reached a point of intersection and once it crosses that blue Arc, there is a line of rejection just above. This Blue line needs to be crossed and held as support. The Daily version of this chart shows ua how we have just crossed that blue Arc. It also shows us how FRAGILE this is right now. PA is currently testing that Blue line as support This needs to Hold. If we manage to hold this line and bounce, Stiff resistance is found around 120K The following charts are showing the following indicators The 3 indicators used are RSI - Relative Strength Index. used to measure the speed and change of price movements TSI - True Strength Index, used to indicate trend direction and overbought/oversold conditions. ADX - The Average Directional Index (ADX) is used to measure the strength of a trend, not its direction The 4 hour chart - short term expectations for the weekend Bitcoin PA the Yellow line at the Top, the indicators are in the order listed above, First thing to see here is how BTC PA is retesting that Blue Arc - this really needs to hold RSI (blue) - OVER BOUGHT, It has fallen below its own MA ( average) and could easily drop further today. Looking back along this, we can see how the 4 hour RSI likes to range along the Neutral line, so we may see it drop back to that level today, tomorrow TSI is also OVER BOUGHT. We can see when TSI is up here, PA ranges while it cools off. But there is room for one little push here if required ADX ( yellow ) is high showing trend could be getting near exhausted, The orange line is the DI+. This shows positive prince direction, the Red one is DI- and shows that negative price direction is climbing slightly. In the short term, we need to see PA hold above the Blue line but the likelihood is to possibly back below. There is support below. The WEEKLY shows us that PA has the ability to continue for a while longer but we are getting near a point where PA needs to recover Here we can see how the RSI and TSI are both up high, on the edge of OVER BOUGHT but with the ability to rise further. What is VERY important to take note of here is that ADX. It is Low, this is indicating that the weekly Trend has lost strength now. It could continue lower. Remember, ADX DOES NOT SHOW TREND DIRECTION, JUST STRENGTH So, the thing to see here is that we are in an area where we could see a New Trend begin. This trend could be either Bullish or bearish On a weekly chart, this change can take a long time to appear in PA And for the Longer Term, The Monthly Chart gives us hope for a fuhrer push higher for the rest of the year but one little warning bell WE See Both RSI and TSI up high again, where they have been since 2024. But neither of them are up in OVER BOUGHT as much as they have been in previous cucle Tops.... So we can assume room to move higher. But what does ring a bell is that ADX again. It is once again, in a place of Change and on this chart, showing that the current trend can start becoming weaker. However, DI+ has plenty of room to move higher So, in conclusion, we see that BITCOIN has the ability to continue higher but in the short term, we may see a pause and possinle Volatility Trends are about to change, This could take Weeks and PA can continue higher while a trend weakens. For me. we are in the last few months of this cycle and at a point of Decision. PA MUST get over that Blue Arc that has rejected Every ATH since 2013. If PA fails this, we go back to sub 90K but this is unlikely, There are numerous projections that see BTC PA in price discovery reaching the 120K before serious resistance. On this chart, if PA follows pattern and trends, we could see 378K by year end Getting over that irange line is KEY Stay safe everyone.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin's 215-Day Pattern: Another Breakout Loading?The Bitcoin chart shows a repeating pattern of consolidation lasting 215 days before each major upward breakout. This cycle has occurred multiple times over the past two years, with each accumulation zone followed by a strong bullish rally. Currently, Bitcoin is once again emerging from a similar 215-day consolidation phase, suggesting the potential for another significant move to the upside if the pattern holds. If history repeats, we could see a target around $150K. BINANCE:BTCUSDT CRYPTOCAP:BTC
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by HexaTrades
What if I show you Bitcoin is at end of 1st cycle only ? The Chart above involves TWO things we may need to pay attention to. There is so much involved in this and I could go on for hours because, for me, this opens the door to so many things for Bitcoin. And I am now looking at this past 14 years as the "Beginnings". And we need to wait and see Where we go next before we label that So.. What do we have here. The ARC of Resistance. - I have talked about this before. Simply put, PA on every ATH since 2011 has been rejected by the same line / Arc - This needs no more than the Arc on a chart to see... It is as simple as that. Beneath this, we have that Dashed line of Support that has Never been Broken. Created off a High in 2011, it got retested as support in 2015 and not again until 2023. Between these two points, you will notice how that Arc of resistance was at its furthest points from the line of support below. It is like the Beginning and End of a sequence....... The next thing we have is a Very interesting thing called the Trend-Based FIB Time. It is important to understand what this is, So ;- Trend-Based Fib Time is a technical analysis tool that uses the Fibonacci sequence to predict probable price corrections within an existing trend. It is represented by vertical lines at specific time intervals that show potential areas where a swing high, low, or reversal could occur. These intervals are based on the Fibonacci sequence and are not concerned with price levels but rather with time. The tool helps traders identify how far a wave is likely to travel in the trend. Note what is in Bold there. And then look at the chart..It clearly shows us, where PA touched that line of support twice, the Cycle / Wave. The RED zones. And between these was the Trend. The over all Gain in price, over Time. We have 3 Waves in total. The 3 ATH to ATH from 2017 to now To further support this idea, see how PA did not come down to the Line of support between the 2017 - > 2021 ATH's That was MID CYCLE - Strength And so now, while we all wait for the next push up, I want to show you a zoomed, Daily version of this chart The Current ATH we have was absolutely on the day of the END of this Fib Time cycle. I promise you I did not "Adjust this to suit." That was the genuine result. And I was Stunned. And more than that, This image also very clearly shows us that Time and Room is running out for PA. It faces the strongest lines of Support and resistance it has ever faced and these lines reach an apex in Dec..... PA ALWAYS REACTS BEFORE THE APEX So, What is Next ? The chances of Bitcoin crashing to the Floor are highly unlikely unless all the corporations that have been buying BTC, decide to sell them all at the same time. This IS a possibility ONLY if they are working with the TradFi banking organisations, that tried to Crash BTC in 2022 / 2023 OK OK, that involves ridiculous amounts of Losses for many ..so..NO BUT PA IS GETTING SQUEEZED And so we wait....and Wait till we see Bitcoin PA break out, Enter a Brand New Trend..a Long Term Cycle.....and we may call it Adulthood..... Or, we will have a Story to tell our Grandchildren about a Dream of breaking Free of Banking that Came Oh so Close I cannot wait to see what happens Next - and I am HODL
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
8
Bitcoin bull run ends in 6 months?The above chart presents a macro view of Bitcoin’s monthly price action, showcasing the historical pattern of bull and bear market cycles. Each green box highlights a bull run lasting approximately 35 months (or 1,066 days), a consistent duration seen in the previous two cycles from 2015–2018 and 2019–2022. The current cycle, which began in late 2022 or early 2023, is now entering its final phase, suggesting that if the pattern holds, the BTC bull run may have around 5–6 months remaining before a potential peak. The price action continues to mirror previous cycles, indicating that history may once again be repeating itself. If this cyclical behavior continues, traders and investors should consider the possibility of a cycle top approaching and plan accordingly,.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by HexaTrades
New era: 'The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles'🏆 The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ by FXPROFESSOR Friends, today I’m sharing what may be the most important Bitcoin framework of 2025. Forget the broken halving expectations. Forget the chaos of macro headlines. What if the real signal has been here all along? What if Bitcoin’s true rhythm follows the capital rotation between itself and the U.S. Treasury market? 📊 Introducing: The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ This is not a model of where Bitcoin could go (like Stock-to-Flow)… This is a model of when and why it moves — based on the trust rotation between U.S. Treasury Bonds (TLT) and Bitcoin. What I’ve found is a repeating structure — not based on supply or halvings, but on macro trust dynamics . 🔁 The Two Core Phases: • Correlated Periods 🟦 (Blue zones): BTC and TLT move together — both rising or falling • Inverted Periods 🟩 (Green zones): BTC and TLT move in opposite directions These aren't random — they're structural rotations that occur at key technical levels in the bond market. 🧠 The Cycle Timeline: Jan 2019 – Feb 2020 → Correlated (pre-COVID calm) Feb 2020 – Sep 2021 → Inverted (Fed QE, Bitcoin moon) Sep 2021 – Nov 2022 → Correlated (everything dumps) Nov 2022 – Oct 2023 → Inverted (TLT collapse, BTC recovers) Nov 2023 – Aug 2024 → Correlated (sideways digestion) Aug 2024 – Now (Apr 2025) → Inverted again — and compressing fast We're now in Period 6 — an Inverted Period — but all signs point to an upcoming Reversion. 📉 What Happens at Each Flip? These transitions tend to occur when: • TLT hits major channel support or resistance • Macro fear or liquidity shocks drive trust shifts • Smart money starts reallocating across asset classes Right now, TLT is at channel support — a zone that has previously triggered reversions into correlated periods. 📌 What Comes Next: According to the Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ : → We are statistically due for a reversion** back into correlation → If TLT bounces from 76–71 zone… BTC may follow — not fight → The target remains: BTC breaking above 115 resistance This flip — from inverse to correlated — has historically marked breakout windows for Bitcoin. 🔮 This Is Bigger Than a Halving Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow gave us valuable insight into long-term valuation. But it doesn’t explain timing. This model isn’t about supply mechanics. It’s about macro trust mechanics . When institutional confidence leaves Treasuries… And enters Bitcoin… That’s the rotation we track. That’s what moves the chart now. 🎯 Watchlist: • TLT support: 76 → 71 zone = reversal signal • BTC breakout trigger: 115 resistance • Cycle shift: Reversion = Bitcoin joining TLT upside If this plays out, it could mark the most important trust cycle breakout we’ve seen since the COVID inversion. Bitcoin doesn’t need permission anymore. It just needs a macro trigger. And this model helps us spot it. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 📌 Missed the full credit market breakdown? Check my recent posts on BKLN, HYG, LQD, and TLT to understand the full Trust Flow rotation.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by FX_Professor
2
Bitcoin accurate bottom and top zones BINANCE:BTCUSDT This is my market mood indicator. Accurate determine the bottoms and top of cycles. Based on this analysis on BLX chart and Monthly timeframe we can find something interesting - Marked Monthly green zones. - We never seen white color disbeliefe zones. - Previews 3 times when we saw BLUE color it was a bottom (I was impressed how accurate it play out!!!) - Now it looks like 2018-2019 period (green box-blue-green) - So now no euphoria on market. Need to see yellow, orange and top will be again at extreme red - Hard to say about timing but most likely we will test trendLine at 35-36 (maybe with fake out to 41) - Then we will see yellow and orange color on indicator and drop to covid trendLines again 21-19 and continue move forward till 2025 March to extreme RED zones and end of cycle. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BNC:BLXLong
by Crypto4light
$BTC Cycle Elliot Wave AnalysisMore confluence on why this CRYPTOCAP:BTC cycle will perform similar to 2017 vs 2021. If we look at Elliot Wave theory, we can see the first cycle (red) had a long 3rd wave and somewhat truncated 5th wave. The second cycle (green) had a muted 3rd wave and extended 5th wave. The third cycle performed similar to the first, which makes me believe the fourth cycle will perform similar to the second cycle. It appears the ₿itcoin cycle flip-flops every other time. *NOTE* I used Closing Candles for when drawing EW to cancel out noise. **EW drawings are extremely subjective, hence why I don’t use often for analysis.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by jonnieking
The next target of the Bitcoin cycle is the historically MVRV?Bitcoin's price is currently overbought locally. Yesterday, the price reacted with a decline of 4.9%. This was the first response, and now it’s important to hold the level of $62,700–$61,800. A breakdown below this level would signal a trend reversal to a downward trend with the first target being the imbalance zone at $52,500–$49,550, as marked on the chart. I would like to see investor support manifest in this imbalance zone, but if I don’t observe sufficient buying volume, I will expect a swift reversal and a breakdown towards the key on-chain level, the MVRV Pricing Bands (-0.5sd). This is a critically important level from which strong Bitcoin trends have historically formed in a broader perspective. In a positive economic environment, there is a chance of a rebound from the $62,700 support zone, possibly forming a divergence and a potential double top. The reaction of sellers during the bounce from $62,700 will play a significant global role. If the price consolidates above $67,000–$68,500, then we could see a BullRun!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by GarateTradeCrypto
Bitcoin Market Cycle This chart tried to reflect the uncanny similarities between Bitcoin's previous cycles and will try to use that information to "predict" next market cycle top in terms of price and time. The price is derived using Log FIB extension 1.618 and is the minimum Bitcoin has to hit. Although Bitcoin has gone way above this extension in the past, I am going to keep things a little conservative. The chart is aimed to not use any indicators to keep it clean but you can apply Pi cycle top indicator (which has been super accurate to make it more precise) The chart shows how bottom of the previous bear market to the next one takes about 206 Weeks or so and how bear market lasts about 52-55 weeks while Bull market (from the bottom and not halving) is about 155 Weeks ish. While the drawdowns are becoming less and severe by some percentage, I chose about 75% drawdown for next bottom in 2026 with price of about mid 40K. Like someone said " All models are wrong but some are useful" this can clear some noise and provide us some timeframe when we can start taking some profits based on time and price. Over time, I will provide update to this model if I think I can make it more accurate. LFG!!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by AmandeepSingh2020