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Bitcoinpricetrendanalysis

Bitcoin Breaks Key Resistance – Upside Targets in Focus...Bitcoin has been consolidating below the $113,000 resistance level over the past few sessions. On the hourly timeframe, price has now successfully broken above this barrier and is sustaining the breakout. 📈 Trading Outlook: * A pullback towards $113,000 could offer a favorable long entry opportunity. * Upside Targets: * First target: $117,000 * Second target: $122,000 The breakout and successful close above resistance suggest strong bullish momentum, provided price holds above the $113,000 zone.
Long
by Kartik_Elkunchwar
Bitcoin Price History Says BTC Needs To Crash 8% To Form New ATHAt the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $112,221, holding firm above the $110,000 support. This resilience reinforces the four-month uptrend line and signals potential short-term gains. The momentum is intact, with BTC eyeing higher levels. If sustained, Bitcoin could climb past $112,500 and head toward $115,000. Yet to reach a new ATH, history suggests BTC might need to drop to $101,634 first, setting the stage for a stronger breakout. On the flip side, if profit-taking escalates, BTC could slip toward the retracement level sooner. But should fear-driven selling dominate, the price risks falling below $100,000, which would invalidate the bullish outlook and extend the correction phase.
by BeInCrypto
BTCUSD📊 BTC/USDT Analysis ✅ Update: TP2 successfully hit as per plan. (As in Previously shared plan) ⚠️ Catch: BTC made a new 1H HH around 113,434, but failed to break the 4H resistance at 113,506±. 🔎 Key Observations: 4H structure remains bearish (Lower Highs intact). 1H still holding bullish structure with HLs along the trendline. Price is currently retesting our buying trendline zone, showing respect to HLs. 🎯 Scenarios: Long 📌 Plan:1 Aggressive traders: 1️⃣ Bullish Case (Buying Zone Active)-CMP BTC is at the trendline support zone → early longs possible Long 📌 Plan:2 Conservative traders: Enter long only if BTC breaks & holds above 113,500±. Wait for a bullish 4H confirmation candle at the buying zone before entering long. 📌 Short Plan: Bearish Case (4H Continuation) If BTC breaks the trendline & last HL of 1H TF , then Short for 4H bearish pattern continuation. This would invalidate the current buying zone and 1H Bullish Pattern. 📌 Trade with proper risk management.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by SmartMoney-AR
History Suggests Bitcoin Price Is Fated To ConsolidateBitcoin crossing the $112,500 resistance is encouraging, providing a path toward $115,000. This level is crucial for attracting new capital inflows, which would validate the recovery and increase the likelihood of sustained upward momentum. However, historical patterns suggest consolidation remains likely. Bitcoin may settle under $115,000 or slip below $112,500, with sideways price action dominating the short term as the market absorbs recent volatility. If profit-taking accelerates, Bitcoin could face sharper declines. A drop back to $110,000, or even a loss of this support, would weaken sentiment and invalidate the bullish thesis, leaving BTC vulnerable to extended consolidation or further downside.
by BeInCrypto
1
BTC/USDT Crypto Heist - Bullish Breakout Blueprint!🔥 Thief Trading Style: BTC/USDT Bullish Heist Plan 🔥 Greetings, Money Makers & Market Robbers! 🤑 Ready to execute a daring heist in the Bitcoin vs. Tether (BTC/USDT) crypto market? 📈 Our Thief Trading Style combines technical precision and fundamental insights to target a bullish breakout. Follow this charted strategy to ride the wave and exit before the risky Red Zone. Let’s grab those profits together! 💪🎯 --- 📊 Trade Setup: The Heist Plan - Market: BTC/USDT (Crypto) 🌐 - Bias: Bullish Breakout 🌟 - Timeframe: 1D (Swing Trade) ⏰ Entry 📈: - Breakout Entry: Wait for a clean breakout above the Moving Average (MA) at 108000. Place Buy Stop orders just above 108000 to seize the momentum. 🚀 - Pullback Entry: For lower-risk entries, set Buy Limit orders at the recent 15M/30M swing low (e.g., 105000-106000) to catch pullbacks. 📍 - Trader Tip: Set a TradingView alert for the 108000 breakout to stay ahead of the move! 🔔 Stop Loss 🛑: - Breakout Traders: After the breakout confirms, place your Stop Loss below the recent 1D swing low at 96000 to guard against reversals. ⚠️ - Pullback Traders: Tailor your Stop Loss to your risk appetite (e.g., 1-2% of account). Adjust based on lot size and multiple orders. 📏 - Risk Alert: This heist is high-stakes! Stick to disciplined position sizing to protect your capital.🔥 Target 🎯: - Aim for 122000, near the risky Red Zone (an overbought area prone to consolidation or reversal). 🏴‍☠️ - Exit Strategy: Consider taking profits early if bearish signals (e.g., high volume, reversal candles) emerge near 122000. 💸 Scalpers 👀: - Stick to Long-side scalps with tight trailing stops. Join swing traders for the full heist or scalp quick moves if your capital allows. 💰 --- 📡 Why This Heist Has Potential BTC/USDT is in a neutral trend with strong bullish prospects, driven by: - Technicals: A breakout above the 108000 MA, backed by higher lows on the 1D chart, signals robust momentum. 📊 - Fundamentals: Institutional buying and positive crypto sentiment (check COT reports) fuel upside potential. 📰 - Seasonal Trends: Bitcoin often rallies in Q2, aligning with our setup. 📅 - Intermarket Factors: USD weakness and altcoin strength could lift BTC higher. 🌎 --- ⚠️ Risk Management: Secure Your Gains - News Caution: Skip new trades during major news events (e.g., CPI, FOMC) to avoid volatility spikes. 🗞️ - Trailing Stops: Use trailing Stop Loss to lock in profits as price nears 122000. 🔒 - Position Sizing: Limit risk to 1-2% of your account per trade for a safe heist. 🚨 --- 💥 Power Up the Heist! 💥 Join our Thief Trading Style crew by liking, commenting, and following for more high-energy trade plans! 🚀 Your support strengthens our market raids, helping us profit with precision. Let’s conquer BTC/USDT together! 🤝🏆🎉 Stay Sharp: Another heist plan is on the horizon. Keep your charts locked and loaded, traders! 🐱‍👤😎 #BTCUSDT #Bitcoin #Crypto #Bullish #SwingTrading #Breakout
Long
by The-Thief
2
Bitcoin Holds Above $113K but Faces Persistent Selling PressureBitcoin Holds Above $113K but Faces Persistent Selling Pressure Bitcoin remains range-bound despite a positive start to the day, trading near $113,011, up 1.8% in the past 24 hours. Earlier this month, the leading cryptocurrency reached a record high above $124,000 on optimism about interest-rate cuts. Since then, it has pulled back but is attempting to rebound from recent lows around $110,000, as President Donald Trump increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates. Lower interest rates typically boost demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies and weaken the U.S. dollar, both factors supporting Bitcoin’s valuation. Hyblock’s liquidation heatmap shows BTC absorbing bids in the $111,000–$110,000 range during the weekend sell-off, with another liquidity cluster near $104,000. While a deeper drop toward $104K looks unlikely for now, institutional selling continues to outweigh retail demand, limiting upside potential. Traders seeking a consolidation phase should watch the anchored aggregated daily CVD for signs of easing sell pressure and shifting sentiment.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ProfessorSingapore
Bitcoin Profits Hit 2-Month Low, How Are Investors Reacting?BINANCE:BTCUSDT current price is $111,653, falling through the $112,500 support level. This zone has held strong since early August, offering a key buffer against deeper losses. For now, price action shows consolidation rather than collapse. In the span of one week, BINANCE:BTCUSDT profits have declined sharply, hitting a two-month low. The price drop has pushed several addresses out of profit, reducing overall realized gains. Such drawdowns often follow overheated conditions, which may have marked a recent market top. Given the current sentiment and net accumulation, BINANCE:BTCUSDT could see a bounce to $115,000 . If buying pressure increases and macro support builds, BTC might stabilize above this resistance. Alternatively, it may continue to trade sideways between $112,500 and $115,000 until clarity returns. However, if accumulation slows and selling resumes, BINANCE:BTCUSDT may drop to $110,000. A move this low would mark a near two-month bottom and could expose BTC to increased downside risk.
by BeInCrypto
1
Bitcoin on Edge: Bearish Momentum Building Below $111,800🚨 Bitcoin Alert: Key Support Cracks! 🚨 Bitcoin has slipped below the crucial $111,800 support on the 4H chart, even as rate cut cues try to lift sentiment. 📉 If BTC closes another 4H candle under $111,800, this breakdown could gain momentum, eyeing the $105,000–$107,000 zone as the next major support area. ⚠️ Watch price action closely — failure to reclaim this level may accelerate the bearish move.
Short
by Kartik_Elkunchwar
Can the Thief Rob BTC Pullback Before the Police Arrive?🚨 BTC/USD 💰 Bitcoin Breakout Heist Plan – Robbers in Action 🚀 🚨 Asset: BTC/USD “Bitcoin vs U.S. Dollar” — Crypto King Market 📊 Plan: BULLISH BREAKOUT RAID 🎯 Target: 123,000.00 🎯 — Police Barricade Resistance + Overbought Trap Zone 🔒 Entry: ANY PRICE LEVEL — Thief avg pullback entry at 115,000.00 🛑 Stop Loss: 113,000.00 — Below the Laser Tripwire 🎩 Thief Entry Blueprint 🕵️‍♂️ The vault’s trembling. The thief’s not waiting. Layered limit orders are being deployed like smoke bombs — we strike anywhere, anytime, with stealthy precision. No begging for dip, we rob it raw. 💣🧨 📉 Risk Protocol Setup 🛡️ SL: Under local support – cut fast if alarms trigger. Risk light, rob heavy. Use tight stops or trailing guards to escape with the loot. 📈 Why Rob Long? Bullish momentum building like a pressure cooker 💥 Resistance zones turning into trapdoors for late bears 🐻 Liquidity pools above — ripe for raid Sentiment flips, on-chain signals, and macro tailwinds align ⚡ 📌 Robbery Reminders: NO SHORTING — This is a one-way heist 🚷 Avoid news-time chaos ⛔ Use multiple entries (layer style) and escape plans. Overbought ≠ exit — it’s the bait for the next raid 🧠 💖 LIKE = SUPPORT THE CREW Every like boosts the Thief Trader movement — more heat, more setups, more wins. Smash Boost. Share the Heist. Stay Robbing. 🐱‍👤📈🔥 🔔 Stay tuned. Next breakout blueprint dropping soon.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDLong
by The-Thief
Why are Whales Moving Bitcoin to Binance? Weekly Whale WatchBINANCE:BTCUSDT price is currently trading at $116,830 after slipping below the key $120,000 level. The price fell from the recent ATH of $124,474 , showing some volatility. Despite this decline, Bitcoin is maintaining support above $119,000, suggesting that the recent dip could be a short-term correction. In the past 24 hours, Binance has seen a massive increase in BINANCE:BTCUSDT deposits, with 6,060 BTC, worth approximately $722 million , added to the exchange’s balance. This surge primarily comes from whales Given the mixed market sentiment, BINANCE:BTCUSDT could potentially reclaim $120,000 as a solid support level. If the bulls manage to maintain this level, Bitcoin might be able to recover from the recent dip and push towards $122,000. However, if selling pressure intensifies, BINANCE:BTCUSDT price may fall through the $117,261 support level . A deeper drop could take the price to $115,000 or lower, which would invalidate the bullish outlook and indicate further market weakness.
by BeInCrypto
Bitcoin 4h Chart Update [Tight Range / Breakout Opportunities]Breakout Opportunities We're in a range development zone here! The chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trading within a tight range, with key levels at $115,000 and $112,000 acting as critical support and resistance zones. The price recently peaked near $123,000 but has since pulled back, forming a liquidity crisis zone around $120,000 where selling pressure kicked in. A breakout above $115,000 could signal a move toward $120,000 or higher, while a drop below $112,000 might push it toward the demand zone. Gotta break out of this range to figure out where we're headin' next! Demand Zone $110,000 & $107,000 Price slipped down from $120,000 due to a lack of buying liquidity, potentially it will land into a demand zone between $110,000 and $107,000. This area could act as a strong support level where buyers might step in. If the price holds here, it could bounce back toward the $112,000-$115,000 range. However, a failure to hold this zone might see it test lower support around $107,000 or even $105,000. Direction and Possible Ranges Upward Potential: If Bitcoin breaks above $115,000 with strong volume, the next targets could be $120,000 (liquidity crisis zone) and potentially $123,000, aligning with recent highs. A sustained move above $120,000 might open the door to $125,000 or beyond. Downward Risk: Should the price fail to hold above $112,000 and break below, it could slide into the demand zone ($110,000-$107,000). Further weakness might push it toward $105,000, a psychological and technical support level. Current Trend: The chart shows a descending trendline from the $123,000 peak, suggesting bearish pressure unless a decisive breakout occurs. The 4-hour timeframe indicates indecision, with the range-bound action hinting at a potential volatile move once direction is confirmed. Keep an eye on these levels for the next big move!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ArtemFuturesTrading
6
BTCUSD Short Setup – 4H Bitcoin has broken below a key dynamic support zone, and current price action signals a potential continuation to the downside. This short entry is supported by multiple technical confluences: 🔻 Bearish Confluences: Fibonacci Retracement Rejection: Price rejected the 61.8% Fib retracement zone near $114,978, confirming a potential local top. Trend Structure: Clear lower high, lower low structure forming on 4H – momentum favors sellers. EMA Cloud Pressure: Price is decisively below the multi-band EMA cloud, showing sustained bearish pressure and trend bias. Volume Profile Gap: Price is entering a low-volume node between $113.8k and $112k, increasing likelihood of a sharp move down. Bearish Candlestick Pattern: A strong bearish engulfing candle formed after the retracement – a classic reversal confirmation. 🎯 Fibonacci-Based Targets: TP1 – $11205 (38.2%): Initial demand zone and minor support. TP2 – $11024 (61.8%): Mid-extension level, aligns with prior consolidation. TP3 – $10731 (100%): Full measured move target if the downtrend accelerates. SL: Placed just above the recent swing high at $11678, protecting against false breakouts.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by VisionaryInsights
11
BITCOIN Indicates Consolidating Moves Before StronBitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis Report Summary and Conclusion Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $117,000 to $118,000, showing a slight pullback from its recent all-time high near $123,000. The market sentiment is moderately bullish but cautious, with technical indicators signaling some overbought conditions and short-term consolidation. Institutional interest appears to be cooling off slightly, as evidenced by recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, while accumulation continues across various investor tiers, including whales and retail holders. Key resistance is near $119,400-$120,000, and support lies around $117,200-$116,900. The market is in a "perfect accumulation" phase, with strong buying support despite some profit-taking. The Fear & Greed Index is at 70, indicating greed but not extreme euphoria. Recent news highlights a mixed picture: Bitcoin remains dominant and stable, but altcoins are gaining some momentum. Institutional flows are shifting somewhat from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other altcoins. Experts predict potential for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 to $250,000 later this year, driven by macroeconomic factors like credit expansion and fiat inflation. Detailed Analysis 1. Price and Market Data Market Type Last Price (USD) 24h Change 24h High 24h Low 24h Volume (USD) Funding Rate (Contract) Spot 116,959.8 -1.65% 119,498.4 116,946.6 1.43B N/A Contract 116,962.7 -1.65% 119,492.9 116,935.5 8.91B 0.0001 Bitcoin is consolidating below $120,000 after reaching a peak of $123,218 on July 14. Trading volume remains robust, indicating active market participation. 2. Technical Indicators Bullish Signals: No strong bullish technical indicators currently detected. Bearish Signals: RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting short-term caution. Support and Resistance: Resistance: ~$119,416.6 Support: ~$117,227.4 MACD and other momentum indicators show indecisiveness, implying possible sideways movement or minor corrections before the next major move. 3. Market Sentiment Fear & Greed Index: 70 (Greed) Investor sentiment is bullish but tempered by profit-taking and cautious positioning. ETF flows show a recent reversal with $68 million outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, ending a 13-day inflow streak. Ethereum and altcoins are attracting more inflows, signaling a rotation in institutional interest. 4. Recent News Highlights Bitcoin remains dominant but has been mostly stagnant below $120K, while altcoins struggle for momentum. Institutional investors are shifting some capital from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other altcoins. Bitcoin is in a "perfect accumulation" phase, with all investor tiers building positions despite some whale transfers. Experts like Arthur Hayes predict Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end, driven by credit expansion and macroeconomic factors. Network activity shows a slight dip in active addresses, indicating a short-term pause. Support levels around $116,952 and $114,354 are critical to watch for downside risk. Bitcoin's dominance remains strong at around 61%. 5. Outlook Short-term: Bitcoin may continue to consolidate between $117,000 and $120,000, with potential minor pullbacks due to overbought RSI. Medium to Long-term: Positive macro factors and accumulation trends suggest potential for new highs, possibly targeting $150,000 to $250,000. Watch for a breakout above $120,000 to confirm bullish momentum continuation. Monitor ETF flows and on-chain activity for signs of renewed institutional interest or caution. Recommendations for Traders and Investors Traders: Consider cautious trading around current levels, watching for RSI and MACD signals for entry/exit points. Be mindful of resistance near $120,000. Investors: Accumulation phase suggests good opportunities for long-term holding, especially if Bitcoin holds above $117,000. Risk Management: Keep stop-loss orders near support levels to mitigate downside risk in case of a correction.
by FxArena
GROK's Analysis of Bitcoin's 4-Year Market CyclesIn the past I have published my own analysis of Bitcoin's 4-year market cycles, (cycles 2 and 3). My purpose for analyzing the market cycles was to determine how similar in elapsed times the last two market cycles were to each other. Not only in the length of the overall market cycle but also between the major events, (bear market low to the halving, halving to the market cycle peak, and market cycle peak to the next bear market low). The results of my analysis shocked me. Not only were the last two cycles very close in overall length but they were also (in my opinion) very close in the elapsed times between the major events. I was shocked because an open market, whether it is the stock market, crypto market, or any other openly traded market can be influenced by so many different factors both inside and outside of the market. Internal factors that can influence an openly traded market could include, Supply and demand dynamics, market sentiment (investor psychology) and speculation, and market structure. External factors can include Macroeconomic conditions, Geopolitical events, Regulatory environment, Global events and crises, Interplay and volatility, and Monetary policy and liquidity. Then add into all of these influential factors that the Bitcoin market is traded globally, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year, it never closes. Taking all of these influential factors into consideration, it boggles my mind how there could be so much consistency between the market cycles. Anyway, my reason for publishing this topic again is because my analysis was basic. So I asked GROK to analyze the last three market cycles including the current cycle and compile all the results into a report. Can you analyze the last two Bitcoin 4-year cycles, (Jan. 14, 2015, to Dec. 15, 2018) and (Dec. 15, 2018, to Nov. 21, 2022), and compare them against each other? Then analyze the current market cycle which started on Nov. 21, 2022, and note any similarities with the previous two market cycles. Also, if possible, try to predict when this market cycle peak might occur. Please also include any analysis that you can do on Global liquidity including United States M1 and M2 money supply trends, U.S. money printing, and any relationship / correlation to U.S. interest rates. Please analyze the following along with any other pertinent data and make a comparison between the two cycles: • The duration from bear market low (beginning of the market cycle) to the halving. • The duration from halving to the market cycle peak price. • The duration from the market cycle peaks to the next bear market lows. • The duration of the overall market cycle (bear market low to the next bear market low). • Percentage gain from the bear market low to the market cycle peak. • Percentage loss from the market cycle peak to the next bear market low. • Please include the dates of the bear market lows, market cycle peaks, and halvings. • If possible, list the price corrections from each market cycle that exceed 20%. Also I want you to add any other pertinent data that you find in your analysis. Note: For this report the current price for Bitcoin on July 22, 2025 at 9:40 Eastern Standard time is $119,556.82 Below is a detailed analysis of the last two Bitcoin 4-year cycles (2015–2018 and 2018–2022), a comparison of their key metrics, an examination of the current cycle (starting November 21, 2022), and an exploration of global liquidity, U.S. M1 and M2 money supply trends, U.S. money printing, and their correlation with U.S. interest rates. I’ve included the requested metrics (durations, percentage gains/losses, key dates, and price corrections exceeding 20%) and additional pertinent data such as macroeconomic factors and on-chain metrics. Finally, I provide a speculative prediction for the current cycle’s peak based on historical patterns and current trends. Analysis of Bitcoin 4-Year Cycles Cycle 1: January 14, 2015 – December 15, 2018 Bear Market Low: January 14, 2015, $176.90 Halving Date: July 9, 2016 (block reward reduced from 25 to 12.5 BTC) Market Cycle Peak: December 4, 2017, $19,666 Next Bear Market Low: December 15, 2018, $3,122 Durations Bear Market Low to Halving: 542 days (January 14, 2015 – July 9, 2016) Halving to Market Cycle Peak: 513 days (July 9, 2016 – December 4, 2017) Market Cycle Peak to Next Bear Market Low: 376 days (December 4, 2017 – December 15, 2018) Overall Market Cycle (Bear Market Low to Next Bear Market Low): 1,431 days (~3.92 years) Price Movements Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Peak): ($19,666 - $176.90) / $176.90 = 11,018.09% Percentage Loss (Peak to Next Bear Market Low): ($19,666 - $3,122) / $19,666 = -84.12% Price Corrections Exceeding 20% May 2017: ~30% correction (from ~$2,700 to ~$1,900) June–July 2017: ~40% correction (from ~$3,000 to ~$1,800) September 2017: ~35% correction (from ~$5,000 to ~$3,250) December 2017 – February 2018: ~65% correction (from $19,666 to ~$6,900) April–May 2018: ~35% correction (from ~$9,700 to ~$6,300) November–December 2018: ~50% correction (from ~$6,300 to $3,122) Key Observations The 2015–2018 cycle was characterized by a prolonged accumulation phase post-2015 low, with the halving in July 2016 acting as a catalyst for a bull run. The market peak occurred ~17 months after the halving, driven by retail investor enthusiasm and the ICO bubble. The bear market was severe, with an 84.12% drawdown, exacerbated by the ICO bubble collapse and regulatory concerns. Cycle 2: December 15, 2018 – November 21, 2022 Bear Market Low: December 15, 2018, $3,122 Halving Date: May 11, 2020 (block reward reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC) Market Cycle Peak: November 8, 2021, $67,589 Next Bear Market Low: November 21, 2022, $15,476 Durations Bear Market Low to Halving: 513 days (December 15, 2018 – May 11, 2020) Halving to Market Cycle Peak: 546 days (May 11, 2020 – November 8, 2021) Market Cycle Peak to Next Bear Market Low: 378 days (November 8, 2021 – November 21, 2022) Overall Market Cycle (Bear Market Low to Next Bear Market Low): 1,437 days (~3.94 years) Price Movements Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Peak): ($67,589 - $3,122) / $3,122 = 2,064.22% Percentage Loss (Peak to Next Bear Market Low): ($67,589 - $15,476) / $67,589 = -77.10% Price Corrections Exceeding 20% March 2020 (COVID-19 Crash): ~50% correction (from ~$10,000 to ~$5,000) May–July 2021: ~50% correction (from ~$64,000 to ~$29,000) November 2021 – January 2022: ~40% correction (from $67,589 to ~$40,000) May–June 2022 (Terra/Luna Collapse): ~45% correction (from ~$40,000 to ~$18,000) November 2022: ~25% correction (from ~$20,000 to $15,476) Key Observations The 2018–2022 cycle saw a shorter accumulation phase before the halving, partly due to the COVID-19-induced liquidity injection in 2020. The bull run post-halving was fueled by institutional adoption (e.g., Tesla, MicroStrategy) and retail FOMO, amplified by global stimulus. The bear market was less severe than the previous cycle (77.10% vs. 84.12%), but events like the Terra/Luna collapse and FTX bankruptcy triggered significant corrections. Key Similarities Cycle Duration: Both cycles lasted approximately 4 years (~1,431–1,437 days), reinforcing the 4-year cycle tied to Bitcoin’s halving schedule. Halving as Catalyst: In both cycles, the halving (2016 and 2020) marked the start of significant bullish momentum, with peaks occurring 513–546 days post-halving. Bear Market Drawdowns: Both cycles experienced severe drawdowns (84.12% and 77.10%), though the 2018–2022 cycle was less extreme, possibly due to increased market maturity. Multiple Corrections: Both cycles saw 5–6 corrections exceeding 20%, reflecting Bitcoin’s high volatility during bull and bear phases. Key Differences Percentage Gains: The 2015–2018 cycle had a much higher percentage gain (11,018.09% vs. 2,064.22%), likely due to Bitcoin’s lower starting price and the speculative frenzy of the ICO bubble. External Influences: The 2018–2022 cycle was heavily influenced by macroeconomic events (COVID-19 stimulus, institutional adoption), while the 2015–2018 cycle was more driven by retail speculation and the ICO boom. Correction Triggers: The 2015–2018 bear market was driven by regulatory fears and the ICO bubble collapse, while the 2018–2022 bear market was exacerbated by crypto-specific events (Terra/Luna, FTX). Current Cycle: November 21, 2022 – Present (July 23, 2025) Bear Market Low: November 21, 2022, $15,476 Halving Date: April 19, 2024 (block reward reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC) Current Price (July 22, 2025): $119,556.82 Market Cycle Peak: January 2025, ~$112,000 (based on X post sentiment, not definitive) Durations (As of July 23, 2025) Bear Market Low to Halving: 514 days (November 21, 2022 – April 19, 2024) Halving to Current Date: 460 days (April 19, 2024 – July 23, 2025) Overall Duration to Date: 974 days (November 21, 2022 – July 23, 2025) Peak to Current Date: ~190 days (January 2025 – July 23, 2025, assuming peak at ~$112,000) Price Movements (As of July 23, 2025) Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Current Price): ($119,556.82 - $15,476) / $15,476 = 672.58% Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Assumed Peak): ($112,000 - $15,476) / $15,476 = 623.83% (based on ~$112,000 ATH in January 2025) Percentage Change (Assumed Peak to Current Price): ($119,556.82 - $112,000) / $112,000 = +6.75% (indicating no bear market low yet) Price Corrections Exceeding 20% (November 2022 – July 2025) June–August 2023: ~25% correction (from ~$31,000 to ~$23,000) April–July 2024: ~30% correction (from ~$73,000 to ~$50,000, post-halving dip) February–April 2025: ~20% correction (from ~$112,000 to ~$90,000, based on X sentiment) Similarities with Previous Cycles Duration to Halving: The 514-day period from the bear market low to the halving aligns closely with the 513–542 days in previous cycles. Post-Halving Bullish Momentum: Like the 2016 and 2020 halvings, the April 2024 halving preceded a significant price increase, with Bitcoin reaching ~$112,000 by January 2025 (a ~623% gain from the low). Multiple Corrections: The current cycle has seen at least 3 corrections exceeding 20%, consistent with the 5–6 corrections in prior cycles. Liquidity Correlation: The current cycle’s bull run aligns with global liquidity expansion (e.g., M2 growth from $102T to $107T by February 2025), similar to the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 bull markets. Differences from Previous Cycles Lower Percentage Gain: The current cycle’s gain (623.83% to assumed peak) is lower than the 2015–2018 cycle (11,018.09%) and 2018–2022 cycle (2,064.22%), reflecting Bitcoin’s maturing market and higher starting price. Influence of ETFs: The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 bolstered demand, a new factor not present in prior cycles. Supply Shocks: The release of long-dormant coins (e.g., Mt. Gox repayments, government seizures) in 2024 caused temporary oversold conditions, unique to this cycle. Global Liquidity and Macroeconomic Analysis U.S. M1 and M2 Money Supply Trends M1 Money Supply (cash, checking deposits): M1 surged during the COVID-19 stimulus in 2020, peaking at ~$20T in 2021, but has since stabilized at ~$18T by mid-2025 due to tighter monetary policy. M2 Money Supply (M1 + savings deposits, money market accounts): Global M2 grew from $102T to $107T between January and February 2025 (3.8% increase), signaling renewed liquidity expansion. U.S. M2 specifically has shown slower growth since 2022, correlating with Bitcoin’s bear market bottom, but recent upticks align with Bitcoin’s rally to $119,556.82. Historical Correlation: Bitcoin’s bull markets (2016–2017, 2020–2021) coincided with rapid M2 growth, while bear markets (2018, 2022) aligned with M2 contractions. The current cycle’s rally since 2023 mirrors rising M2 year-on-year growth. U.S. Money Printing and Interest Rates Money Printing: Quantitative easing (QE) during 2020–2021 (e.g., $4T in U.S. stimulus) fueled Bitcoin’s 2020–2021 bull run. Since 2022, the Federal Reserve shifted to quantitative tightening (QT), reducing liquidity, but recent expectations of rate cuts in 2025 have spurred M2 growth and Bitcoin’s price recovery. U.S. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve raised rates from 0% to ~5.5% between 2022–2023 to combat inflation, correlating with Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market. Speculation of rate cuts in mid-2025 (potentially to 3–4%) has boosted risk assets, including Bitcoin, as lower rates increase liquidity and investor risk appetite. Correlation: Bitcoin has a ~0.94 long-term correlation with global liquidity (M2), with a 56–60 day lag between liquidity increases and price rises. Higher interest rates suppress Bitcoin’s price by reducing liquidity, while anticipated rate cuts in 2025 are driving bullish sentiment. Stablecoin Liquidity Stablecoin supply (e.g., USDT, USDC) is a crypto-native liquidity metric with a stronger short-term correlation to Bitcoin’s price than M2. Positive 28-day changes in stablecoin supply often signal accumulation phases, while sharp declines align with local tops. Current stablecoin supply growth supports Bitcoin’s upward trajectory in 2025. Prediction for Current Cycle Peak Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin peaks ~1,060–1,070 days from the bear market low (35 months), or ~12–18 months post-halving. Based on: Cycle Low: November 21, 2022 Historical Peak Timing: 1,060–1,070 days (October–November 2025) Post-Halving Timing: 12–18 months from April 19, 2024 (April–October 2025) Current Trajectory: Bitcoin’s price at $119,556.82 (974 days from low) and MVRV Z-Score <1 suggest further upside potential. Speculative Peak Prediction: Bitcoin may peak between late Q3 and early Q4 2025 (September–November 2025), potentially reaching $150,000–$320,000, based on historical MVRV ratios (peak MVRV ~8) and liquidity trends. Risks include global recession, equity market corrections, or regulatory shocks. Additional Pertinent Data MVRV Z-Score: Currently <1, indicating undervaluation and room for growth compared to historical peaks (MVRV >3). Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL): The current cycle is in the “Belief” stage, transitioning toward “Euphoria,” consistent with prior bull runs. Exchange Reserves: Declining Bitcoin reserves on exchanges (e.g., CryptoQuant data) indicate HODLing, reducing available supply and supporting price increases. Google Search Trends: Interest in “Bitcoin” and “crypto” peaked in prior cycles (2017, 2021) during bull runs. Current search volume is rising but below 2021 levels, suggesting the cycle may not yet be at its peak. Correlation with Risk Assets: Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached 0.73–0.76 in April 2025, reflecting its sensitivity to broader market sentiment. Conclusion The 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles share structural similarities (4-year duration, halving-driven bull runs, severe bear markets), but differ in scale and drivers. The current cycle (2022–present) mirrors past cycles in timing and liquidity correlation, with unique factors like ETFs and supply shocks. Global liquidity, particularly M2 and stablecoin supply, remains a key driver, amplified by anticipated U.S. rate cuts in 2025. Bitcoin’s current price ($119,556.82) and metrics suggest a peak in September–November 2025, potentially at $150,000–$320,000, though external risks could alter this trajectory. Investors should monitor MVRV, NUPL, and liquidity trends for intra-cycle positioning. As you can see this is a much more comprehensive analysis of the Bitcoin 4-year market cycle than my previous analysis. That being said the end result, at least when it comes to elapsed time similarities was about the same. It's obvious that for whatever reason the past two market cycles are amazingly similar in elapsed time. Moving forward it will be very interesting to watch as the rest of this current market cycle plays out. The major questions yet to be answered include. When will the market cycle peak occur? What will be the peak price? What will be the price of the next bear market low? Looking at the price chart, especially when you view a line chart it is obvious that as Bitcoin ages as an asset, price volatility diminishes. Will this continue? Only time will tell. One thing that is undeniable is this has been an exciting and at times a frustrating market cycle. However, whether it is exciting or frustrating I am very thankful to be involved in it. I realize that this is a fairly long read so if you have made it this far, thank you! I really appreciate everyone who takes the time to read my ideas. Stay safe and get ready for a wild ride over the next five to six months.
BNC:BLXLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
Bitcoin Parabolic Curve - 2022 to 2026 Market CycleThis line chart visualizes the current Bitcoin market cycle from the bear market bottom in November 2022. As you can see, the price has formed a parabolic curve, which was violated around the beginning of March. A couple of weeks later, a retest of the curve occurred, which was rejected. Later in April, the price of BTC was able to push back above the curve. There was another small dip below in June, but BTC was back above the curve by the end of June. I am also watching the Bitcoin monthly chart and, more specifically, the monthly Stochastic RSI indicator. As you can see in the chart below, between the second and third months after the market cycle peak, the Stochastic RSI indicator has always dropped below the "20" level, and was near zero at the close of the third month. Back in March and April, there was some speculation that the new all-time high set on January 20th at just over $109k was the peak for this market cycle. At the beginning of April, the Stochastic RSI dropped well below the 20 level but rebounded and was at 16.81 when the April candle closed. The May monthly candle closed with the Stochastic RSI at 31.45, and June closed at 50.17. This indicated to me that this market cycle was far from over. On July 14th, BTC set a new all-time high at just over $123,000, ending the speculation that this current market cycle had peaked. My assumption for now is that Bitcoin is still following a 4-year market cycle. If this is true, I would expect a market cycle peak sometime in the final months of this year. Either way, it has been a very interesting market cycle with huge changes for the crypto asset class.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Bigsky_Crypto