Bearish outlook for Bitcoin!Bitcoin Cycle Analysis and Trade Thesis
For more than a decade, Bitcoin has evolved through recurring cyclical patterns, consistently respecting long-term moving averages and two logarithmic regression curves — one defining market peaks and the other defining troughs. I expect this structural behavior to persist over the coming years.
On Friday, as INDEX:BTCUSD briefly topped 123,000, I initiated a bear put spread on NASDAQ:IBIT (50/45 strike), expiring January 2026.
Target: BTCUSD ≈ 70,000.
If this target is not reached by late 2026, I will close the position regardless of price.
Bearish Counterpoints
“Never trade against the trend” — Bitcoin has remained structurally bullish since inception.
“No parabolic top” — Historically, bear markets have emerged only after parabolic blow-offs, which are not currently visible.
“No fundamental trigger” — Major bear phases have often begun with clear catalysts (e.g., Mt. Gox invalid transaction issues, Mt. Gox collapse, China’s mining ban…), none of which are present now.
I admit it feels somewhat awkward to go short while everyone else is buying.
But in trading, profit often comes from being contrarian — buying near the bottom when fear dominates, and selling near the top when euphoria takes over.
And one last thought: even if I believe crypto will still exist in 50+ years — stablecoins, for example, are undeniably useful for fast money transfers and cross-border payments — I expect many of the most speculative assets to trade far closer to zero than to today’s prices.
Bitcoin, along with others tokens, remains, in my view, vastly overvalued.
