BTC/USDT Analysis. Testing a Key Support Point
Hello everyone! This is CryptoRobotics trader-analyst, and here’s your daily market review.
Yesterday, Bitcoin fully followed the scenario we outlined earlier. As selling pressure weakened, buyers stepped in, pushing the price toward the strong resistance area with major volume anomalies we mentioned before.
At the moment, expectations are tilted toward short positions — the first test of this zone has already shown a spike in volume followed by an immediate pullback. The buyer’s price action looks weaker, suggesting a higher probability of further decline.
The nearest target is support at $108,700–$107,500, while the main target remains the $105,600–$104,500 zone (volume anomalies).
Buy Zones:
$108,700–$107,500 (volume zone)
$105,600–$104,500 (volume anomalies)
$97,000–$93,000 (volume zone)
Sell Zones:
$111,800–$113,000 (strong volume anomalies)
$114,400–$115,600 (local volume zone)
$120,900–$124,000 (volume zone)
This publication is not financial advice.
Bitcoinshort
Bitcoin - We've reached the last line of support🔱 The Buyers’ Zone represents the last major support before price potentially drops toward the red centerline. 🔱
👉 The 3-Drives pattern, signaling exhaustion in the current move.
👉 Broader markets are highly stretched; a broader trend reversal would likely pull Bitcoin down with it.
👉 The slanted support line in the dayli chart is now resistance that could not be washed away.
Given these conditions, there’s a strong possibility that this final support zone won’t hold, leading to a deeper flush.
For targets I see the red Centerline, and even the L-MLH, which gives us a natural support.
Stay sharp and trade safe—wishing you a profitable week ahead
Winter Has Arrived — Bitcoin’s Chill DiveBitcoin’s chart looks frosty — I expect a decline toward 83,000.
The red zone on the chart marks the invalidation area, where my plan will be canceled if price reaches it.
I believe Bitcoin is entering a corrective phase, and the market might need a “cool down” before any new rally can start
BITCOIN - Clear bearish sign!Bitcoin is currently forming a clear corrective pattern — a rising wedge that has broken downward, retested the breakdown, and is now continuing a gradual decline.
This correction is expected to bottom around the $85K level, after which Bitcoin will likely enter a consolidation phase, form new structures, and we’ll keep updating the outlook as new developments occur.
Also, note that the EMA 25 just crossed below the EMA 50, forming a death cross — a bearish signal.
You can consider entering a short position from here, but keep your leverage low and wait for a slight pullback before entering the trade.
Many people won’t like what I’m saying — they’ll tell you “Bitcoin is heading to $200K!” — but that’s just the nature of the market. Everyone sees what they want to see.
Corrections, retracements, and emotional reactions are all part of the cycle. The smart ones are those who read the structure, not the hype.
Best Regards:
Ceciliones🎯
BITCOIN - Short before the bullish reversalThe volume profile currently aligns with our identified point of interest (POI), which corresponds to an unfilled Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the Daily timeframe.
Price action has recently swept the previous daily high (PDH), indicating a potential liquidity grab.
Hourly candle closures have shown weakness, failing to demonstrate meaningful displacement to the upside.
Given these conditions, we anticipate a possible sweep of the PDH once again, potentially forming equal lows (EQ lows) just beneath our Daily POI (FVG).
From there, price may initiate a liquidity hunt toward the sell-side, targeting the previous daily low (PDL) and previous weekly low (PWL).
A potential rebound could occur from one of our H4 Bullish Imbalance-Support-Interaction (BISI) zones, which may act as a strong area of demand.
Bitcoin – Bearish Setup / 4H
📉 ***
Price is forming a clear lower high pattern with multiple rejections from the same resistance area.
The market is showing weakness and testing the support zone around **110,000 – 112,000**.
If this support breaks, we could see a deeper move down toward the next demand zone near **104,000 – 105,000**.
🎯 **Targets:**
1. 108,000
2. 106,000
3. 104,000
🛑 **Stop Loss:** clear close above **114,500**
I expect further downside movement based on market structure and repeated rejection from the resistance level.
📘 *This analysis is based on personal market study – DYOR / Not financial advice.*
Operating within Supply & Demand zones (Bitcoin)Setup
Bullish. Correction
Bearish engulfing candle (but long lower wick)
False breakout after record high over $125,000.
Stay bullish while over 100k
Signal
Price has rebounded from demand zone around 104,000
a) Deamnd zone needs to hold to take next bullish signal
b) Looking for similar drop from supply zone near 120,000
Bitcoin Hodlers are happy campers - BUT🕷️ 🌕 🦇 In Switzerland it’s now 11:50 PM 🕷️ 🌕 🦇
I’m tired from a long day in the markets, but I feel I have to get this one out because it’s important for many of you holding Bitcoin.
In my last post, I said we’d run upward to reach the Hagopian Line, and here we are, even higher.
We’ve just tagged the U-MLH for the third time.
There’s an old pattern from the futures markets that farmers once noticed. It’s called the “Three Drives” pattern.
The old farmers knew that when this pattern appeared, it was time to hedge their crops, or add to their hedge.
When I was a student at MarketGeometry, Tim Morge explained this pattern, and ever since it’s served me well as a signal for a trend reversal.
I don’t know exactly how this will help each of you, but I’m sure it’s worth a heads-up. Whether you decide to hedge, close your positions, or just HODL until the sun burns out, it’s something to keep in mind.
Meanwhile, the Harvest Moon is shining into my office tonight, twinkling with a strange grin... 🌕
Time for me to rest.
Good night, everyone.
🌾 🌾 🌾 🌾 🌾 🌾 🌾
Why MY “Big Dump” THESIS STILL STANDS. BITCOIN WILL BLEEDHappy Monday traders,
I’ve reviewed the latest data again and nothing has changed my view. The structure still looks weak underneath the surface and the setup for downside remains strong.
Summary:
• Price rising → Market pushing higher, looks strong on the surface.
• Stablecoin OI increasing → New leveraged perp positions opening. Speculative money is driving the move, not real buyers.
• Coin-margined OI dropped, then slightly increased → Shorts were closed during the breakout, and now new shorts are opening near the highs.
• Spot CVD flat or slightly negative → Real demand is still missing. Spot traders aren’t supporting this move.
• Stablecoin CVD rising → Perp traders are aggressively buying, lifting price artificially.
• Long/Short ratio falling (2.05 → 1.02) → Fewer longs and more shorts entering. Shorts are fading strength while price keeps rising.
• Price up + OI up + Spot CVD flat → Buyers are being absorbed by new shorts. This is distribution forming at the highs.
• Possible short-term move to 126K → Could sweep weekend highs during RTH for liquidity before a potential reversal.
• If Spot CVD stays flat while OI rises on that move → That would likely be the final squeeze before a deeper dump.
-------------------
1️⃣ The same leverage-driven structure
The breakout on September 25 looked impressive, but it was built on leverage rather than real spot demand.
Stablecoin OI (aggregated) increased from 257K → 285K contracts (+10.9%)
This shows fresh leveraged exposure coming from perps, not genuine buyers
Coin-margined OI dropped from 7.58B → 7.29B during that breakout as shorts were closed out
It has now started to rise slightly again at current prices, meaning new coin-margined positions are opening near the highs, most likely shorts fading strength
2️⃣ Spot demand is still missing
Spot CVD moved from -18.38K → -16.44K (about +10.5%), while futures OI rose almost the same amount. That tells you everything: the breakout was driven by futures leverage, not real spot buying.
Everyone’s renting Ferraris (perp longs), but no one is actually buying one (spot BTC). Once the rental stops, the cars vanish and prices drop.
3️⃣ The long-short ratio collapse
On September 25, the aggregated long/short ratio (Binance + Bybit) was 2.05, meaning twice as many longs as shorts. Today it sits near 1.02, even though price is higher.
Early breakout longs have been closed or liquidated
New traders entering the market are mostly shorts
OI is still rising, showing new short positioning, not liquidation exits
Stablecoin-perp CVD is still climbing, meaning buyers are pushing price up but every uptick is met with new short liquidity
This is a classic case of perps pushing while smarter money fades.
4️⃣ Why I still think Bitcoin will bleed
This looks like distribution, not accumulation.
Perp traders are driving the move
Spot buyers still haven’t shown up
Shorts are building into the highs
That’s not a healthy uptrend. It’s a top-heavy market waiting for the bid to dry up. When it does, the unwind will likely be quick as leveraged positions are forced out.
Think of it like a rubber band. The more it’s stretched by leverage without real demand, the harder it snaps when buying power runs out.
⚖️ TL;DR
Stablecoin OI +10.9% → leverage driven
Coin OI fell, then rose slightly → shorts covered, new shorts forming near highs
Spot CVD flat → no real buyers
Long/Short ratio 2.05 → 1.02 → longs out, shorts in
The move up was built on leverage, not ownership.
Spot hasn’t confirmed, and shorts are stacking into strength.
🎯 Short-term note
There’s a chance we see one more push toward the 126K region during RTH to sweep the weekend highs before rolling over. If that happens with spot CVD still flat and OI climbing, it’ll likely be the final liquidity grab before a larger move down.
Until spot CVD turns positive and OI stabilizes, my view remains the same: Bitcoin will bleed.
Interested in the Order Flow data that I used for this Analysis? Check it out here => ibb.co
BITCOIN Bearish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
#BITCOIN made an epic
Bearish breakout of a very
Strong key horizontal level
Of 112340.5which is now a
Resistance and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are
Bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Bearish move down !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Bitcoin ManiaAt these price levels we sit at and the fundamentals, I have to be bullish overall. Although, I have an issue with wanting to call a top/be a contrarian. I see the possibility of a bitcoin top at the 120k and have a tighter band of 115 to 118k to guide me in the short term and at a larger level the 120k to 110k.
Ironically in my view it would be contrarian to be in a long right now, but could be the best trade of the day being at the lower 115k support and possibility of a strong reversal up to 120k.
At the moment, I am out of my "riskier" ETH and ADA longs to see what the market does at this price level. Ready to jump back in for some fun if we can setup with a nice structure.
not financial advice
Bearish divergence analysis(short position).On the chart, you can see that price is making higher highs, but at the same time, the RSI is making lower highs.
This mismatch means that while price looks strong, the momentum behind the move is fading.
As a result, the current uptrend may not be sustainable, and there’s a possibility of a trend reversal or a correction in the near future with respect to EMA20.
Disclaimer:
I am NOT a SEBI registered advisor nor a financial advisor.
Any investments or trades I discuss on my blog are intended solely for educational purposes and do not represent specific financial, trading, or investment advice.
Disclosure:
I, the author of this report, and my immediate family members do not have any financial interest or beneficial ownership in the securities mentioned herein at the time of publication.
COINBASE - My rules say: Down with high probabilityI don't elaborate too much here, because I want to give you a chance to learn something!
As for the Trade, my rules say that it is a good Short.
The Short is not valid anymore, if price open and close above the Upper Extreme!
So, what are the rules?
Well, that's exactly what you will learn today ;-)
Go to my previous post which I will link, and you find everything you need to jump on the Steam-Train if you like.
As my old Mentors always said: "Larn To Earn"
Happy Profits Guys & Gals §8-)
MSTR - Microstrategy Short...for now.The White Fork is created by choosing point A, which must be the lowest price before the swing.
B and C are the natural high and low of the swing we want to measure.
What this gives us is a Pitchfork that projects the most probable path of price.
Additionally, with the three lines that make the Fork, we have the natural extremes above, below, and the center—the mean.
We can see that price started to rise in March 2025.
The 80% rule states that price will reach the Centerline around 80% of the time.
And as we see, it did this time as well. Price reached the CL (Center Line), and immediately the big whales dumped positions.
Then price fell—only to be picked up before reaching the Lower Line, also called the L-MLH or Lower Median Line Parallel.
When price can't make it to this (or any of these) lines, we call this a 'Hagopian,' because it follows 'Hagopian's Rule.' This rule says that if price can't reach 'the line' (the L-MLH in this case), there is a high chance that price will reverse in the previous direction (up in this case), and even go further than where it came from (the Centerline).
And as we see, price indeed traded upwards—beyond where it came from—and overshot the Centerline (CL).
Unfortunately for long-positioned traders, the gas in the goose was empty, and price now starts to head south again, missing the target, which would have been the U-MLH (Upper Median Line Parallel).
So, the open happened below the CL!
If we also see a close this week, I'm ready to initiate a short trade.
Why?
Well, as before, Hagopian’s Rule applies—an indication that price will trade further down than where it came from, which is below $361.
And since we know that the natural target is the Centerline about 80% of the time, we have a heck of a good chance that we’ll be happy campers in a couple of weeks. :-)
With a risk/reward of about 2 to 3, and such a high chance of a profitable trade, I’ll sleep like a baby in the coming weeks.
The trade idea would be cancelled if price closes above the CL this Friday.
Let’s stalk it closely...
USDT.D Showing Troubling Signs of a Market Top SoonIn this video, I revist the USDT.D study I've talked about a few times before showing that when Tether Dominance comes down to this multi-year trendline support (since 2018), that's typically the beginning of a correction.
It's inversely related for obvious reasons. Money flowing out of Bitcoin and crypto flows into stablecoins (Like Tether), so when one is up and peaking, the other is down and correcting.
This video shows the relationship between both, and how we are likely setting up for a near term correction in the coming weeks.
My best guess is we continue to rally hard into early to mid-August, potentially getting close to $150k, followed by a 20-25% correction into September.
The BIG question is...
Will that mark the top, or will get a 2nd (and maybe 3rd) pump to $200k - $245k as my other models have been showing.
Let me know what you think!
BTCUSD - Exhausted? Second time rejected, now down.BTCUSD got rejected at the Centerline the second time. This is super bearish. If it's closing below yesterdays low, that's a clear short signal to me.
Taking 50% gains off the table is never bad. Because then you still have 50% if it's going up further. Otherwise, you got 50% booked.
Don't let gree eat your brain §8-)
BITCOIN CRASH INCOMING!!! (Brace Yourself Now???) I am breaking down MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN and the potential completion of the 4th wave on an leading diagonal which might work as an early warning of a crash towards $93k!
Wait for the confirmations, and play the market with a proper trading strategy that you have backtested enough to be able to say that you will be long-term profitable. That means make sure your trading system is good enough that you always have an edge and a great enough money management system to make sure that you are giving your edge enough space to play out in the long run and be robust against losing streaks!
BTCUSD 4-Hour Analysis – Sell Setup IdeaCurrently, the trend on BTCUSD is bearish. On the 4-hour chart, I’m watching for a reaction at the Balanced Price Range (BPR) zone. This area aligns with a daily Rebalanced Breaker (-RB), adding higher time frame confluence.
In addition to the BPR, there’s an Order Block (OB) within the same region, and a nearby swing high, which strengthens the case for a bearish reaction. If price respects this zone, I expect continuation to the downside targeting the 98,000 and the 96,000 price level.
Do technical signals show Bitcoin’s path to $130K? Do technical signals show Bitcoin’s path to $130K?
Bitcoin briefly pushed above $110,000 for the second time this month, before pulling back slightly to trade around $109,500. The market consolidating just below the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level could be suggesting strong resistance is being tested near current levels.
Bitcoin remains within reach of its all-time high at $111,965, set on May 22.
The latest upward move may have been supported by comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who said trade talks with China in London were progressing well and likely to extend for a third day.
CNBC analyst Todd Gordon expects a breakout toward $130,000 according to his weekly chart analysis. According to our chart, A breakout above 111,897 could open the path to the 78.6% extension around $122,093, followed by the 100% extension target at $135,081






















