Bitcoin: Liquidity Below $107K Signals Bearish RiskFenzoFx—Bitcoin formed a double top at $113,480.00 and is trading lower, up 0.80% today.
The chart shows equal lows at $107,507.00, indicating unabsorbed liquidity below. Technically, Bitcoin may drop to fill the bullish fair value gap near $103,500.00, if BTC/USD closes below the $109,993.00 resistance.
This bearish outlook is invalidated if Bitcoin closes and stabilizes above $113,480.00. In that case, the next bullish target could be $117,416.00.
Bitcoinsignals
BITCOIN Is this the last rally of the Cycle??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has held its 1W MA20 (red trend-line) to perfection and closed last week in green for the first time after 3 straight red 1W candles.
As discussed in previous analyses, the 1W MA20 is critical to BTC's bullish trend as it is the trend-line that supported every final parabolic rally on its previous Cycles.
Even on the current Bull Cycle, it has been the first (and main) level of Support during the entirety of the 3-year Channel Up. The second one is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and was the ultimate Buy Signal on all three occasions it was hit (or approached), which coincided with a 0.382 Fibonacci retracement test.
Since the last contact the market had with both the 1W MA50 and 0.382 Fib (April 07 2025 Low), Bitcoin has been trading within the Channel's 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci range, which is the zone that has dominated the price action for most of the Bull Cycle. It broke below or above it 4 times, twice below it in the early stages of the Channel Up and as the Cycle's strength accelerated, twice above it to form Higher Highs.
Those Higher Highs have been the mid-Cycle 'Profit taking Zones' (red Triangles), where traders/ investors were encouraged to book quarterly profits and wait for a lower buy opportunity o the 1W MA50/ 0.382 Fib Support Cluster.
Once again, this is were we expect this upcoming final BTC rally to peak. Technically, even if we see a highly aggressive rise starting now, this Zone should be at $140k and above. Profit taking is a personal matter to each trader, depending on their risk tolerance and how low/ soon they entered the market, but this chart can serve as a reminder on their profit taking strategy.
So are you booking your profits soon for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is the end of the Bull Cycle approaching?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) may be approaching the end of its current Bull Cycle and a few weeks ago we have issued a first reminder of the dynamics of this Cycle in relation to all previous. The historic symmetry is high and this time we've presented it using the Time Cycles and Time Fibonacci levels.
As mentioned on previous studies, measuring the Super Cycle from bottom-to-bottom, the Top tends to be formed around the 0.786 Time Fib. Naturally the distance from the 0.786 Fib and 1.0 is the Bear Phase (red). What follows next is the Bear Buy (blue) of the Bull Phase from Fib 0.0 to Fib 0.236.
What concerns us most at this stage is the fact that 0.786 Time Fib is on the week starting December 01 2025. To make things more alarming, if the next Bear Phase follows the last two that measured 51 days from Top-to-Bottom, since the Super Cycle ends on October 05 2026, the next potential Top of this Cycle could be on the week starting October 13 2025!
Certainly food for thought, surely the current Cycle got derailed/ delayed a few months by Trump's tarrifs but above all this serves as a reminder that booking profits in trading is key. And especially since very few actually manage to do so on Tops.
So are you booking profits for this Cycle or not yet? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin’s Heavy Support Zone Under Attack–Will It Finally Break?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) currently appears to have completed its pullback to the 100_EMA(Daily) , and Bitcoin has failed to break the Resistance lines with high momentum. The Resistance zone($110,920-$110,200) , Resistance lines , and Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($111,711-$110,745) could prevent Bitcoin from rising.
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin appears to have completed the wave Y of the Double Three Correction(WXY) .
I expect Bitcoin to decline at least to the Support lines and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($107,230-$106,277) . And there is a possibility that Bitcoin will eventually break the Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) in this attack .
Do you think Bitcoin can finally break the Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820)?
CME Gap: $117,235-$113,800
Stop Loss(SL): $111,880(Worst)
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN 4H Bullish Cross formed. Can it sustain a rally to 124k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just completed its first Bullish Cross on the 4H time-frame between the MA20 (red trend-line) and the MA50 (blue trend-line). Following a rejection after marginally breaching above the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), this pattern looks very similar to the Bullish Cross of June 25.
Both took place after a strong medium-term correction is the form of Channel Down patterns, with the Bullish Crosses getting formed after a Lower Highs break-out. If fact even the August 07 MA20/50 Bullish Cross led to a strong rally.
As a result, if BTC manages to turn its 4H MA100 into a Support, we expect it to initiate a new rally to test at least the previous High above $124k, similar to the July 03 High test. The 0.786 and 0618 Fibonacci levels can be used as Resistance and Support levels upon break-outs and pull-backs respectively.
So do you think this 4H MA20/50 Bullish Cross can kickstart a new rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN dominance crashing. Are we ahead of a major Altseason?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on a relative correction lately, down more than $15000 from its last All Time High (ATH). Despite this obvious technical weakness, there is one indicator that delivers a very promising signal, not just for BTC but for the crypto market as a whole.
That is Bitcoin's Dominance (BTC.D, blue trend-line), which got rejected on its 8-year Lower Highs trend-line in mid-June and is pulling-back every since. This chart shows that both last two Cycles, such a rejection that took place in the last year of the Cycle, not only initiated a BTC rally but also an even stronger rise on the altcoin market, what is otherwise known as an 'Altseason'.
This time it took place about 6 months before the end of the year (projected end of the Bull Cycle), which is exactly what happened in 2017, the Cycle that the current one looks most like it.
As a result, we expect the current market weakness last at most another 2 weeks, which is roughly by the time of the next Fed meeting where the majority of the market is eagerly anticipating the first Rate Cut in years.
Do you think that is the signal of an upcoming final rally on Bitcoin and an Altseason? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin’s Temporary Rebound Targets Key HighsFenzoFx—Bitcoin remains bearish, though the downtrend paused after tapping equal lows at $107,268.0. BTC has since flipped above the recent fair value gap near $110,200.0.
We anticipate the downtrend will resume, targeting the bullish order block at $105,119.0. BTC/USD may rise toward $112,200.0, followed by equal highs at $113,677.0.
Once these levels are swept, the bearish trend is likely to continue. Traders and investors should monitor these key zones for potential bearish setups.
Bitcoin at Heavy Support – Will Bulls Defend or Break Below?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) fell as I expected in my previous idea .
The question is, can Bitcoin break the Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) ?
Bitcoin is currently trading in the lower areas of the Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) and near the Support lines and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($107,000-$106,330) .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin has completed 5 downwaves at the support lines, and we should expect upward corrective waves . The corrective waves could follow the Expanding Flat(ABC/3-3-5) .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys.
I expect that if Bitcoin is going to break the Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) , it will attack the Resistance zone($110,920-$110,200) and the Resistance lines first. Do you agree with me!?
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $110,147-$109,266
CME Gap: $117,235-$113,800
Stop Loss(SL): $105,600(Worst)
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN ahead of September crash on historically worst month??Despite the obvious hint of 2 potential rate hikes by the end of this year, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has found itself on a downtrend. And as today we entered the first day of September, this sentiment is further empowered by one simple statistical fact: that September has historically been BTC's worst performing month.
As this table on the chart shows (source: CoinGlass), September's average returns have been -3.77%, the worst average score out of all months since 2013. An interesting fact however is that out of all the Septembers that ended in green (4), they did so when there was a red August (like the one we just closed at -5.91%). At the same time out of all the times August was red (8) four times September followed in red. This shows that historical probabilities are equally distributed there.
Statistics aside, the market has a strong case of a bottom on the current levels and that's purely a technical one. As you can see, since May 01, Bitcoin has been trading within a Channel Up. This pattern has seen so far two Bullish Legs of almost identical rise (+22.07% and +21.05% respectively) and when they corrected (Bearish Legs), the first Low was on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the second on the Channel Up bottom.
This time there is an even stronger technical case, as the price hit the 1W MA20 (red trend-line), which as we've shown on a recent study, is a Support level that historically kickstarts the final rallies during Bull Cycles.
Even their 1D RSI sequences are similar, with the indicator currently being on a Lower Lows formation that previously marked the June 22 (Higher) Low.
As a result, assuming we will see the 'minimum' of +21.07% Bullish Leg, we should be expecting a $130000 Higher High, which matches our realistic Cycle Top study, based on most studies we've conducted.
So do you think Bitcoin will again declined this September or we are currently forming a new bottom? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Bearish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
#BITCOIN made an epic
Bearish breakout of a very
Strong key horizontal level
Of 112340.5which is now a
Resistance and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are
Bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Bearish move down !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
BITCOIN The NIGHTMARE BEAR CYCLE fractal that Bulls must avoid!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a strong correction lately after the August 14 All Time High (ATH) at $124500. Every High since has been sold and the price has found itself below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Whether that's alarming or not yet, this sequence draws a lot of comparisons with the pattern that led to the Cycle Top on 2021.
As you can see both patterns started off with Lower Highs that pushed the market to a new bottom on Lower Lows. A 1D Death Cross confirmed the bottom formation (along with a 1D RSI bullish divergence on Higher Lows) and BTC started rising aggressively again, flipping both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) into Supports and forming a Bull Flag on a 1D Golden Cross.
At the end of this sequence in 2021, a Double Top Higher Highs pattern, was what formed the Cycle's Top. Unfortunately for the Bulls' case, this is very similar to the Higher High formation we got on August 14. Even the 1D RSI patterns among those two fractals are similar.
Do you think we are in a similar situation as in late November 2021, which initiated the 2022 Bear Cycle?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin at Heavy Support Zone –Will Bulls Defend $110K or Break?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) rose to $114,400 and even higher, as I expected in my previous idea . Of course, Powell's words also played a significant role in this increase.
Bitcoin has started to decline after the rebound and is currently trading at a Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($110,157-$109,000) , 100_EMA(Daily) , and Support lines .
The question is whether Bitcoin will manage to break the Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) or will it start to rise again. What do you think?
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin appears to be completing microwave 5 of the downtrend waves the past two days . Microwave 5 could be completed at Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($110,157-$109,000) .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys.
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least $113,500 after entering the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) or hitting the Support lines . Market conditions may get a little emotional with the US market opening , so please observe money management.
Second Target: $114,517
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $108,000-$106,747 =Important
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $114,246-$113,326
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $117,939-$115,500
CME Gap: $117,235-$113,800
Stop Loss(SL): $108,670 /If your long position trigger was near the lower lines of the descending channel, it could be =Stop Loss(SL)=$106,417
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN The key importance of the 1W MA20 that was just tested!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) almost hit early this week its 1W MA20 (blue trend-line) and so far it appears to be holding it. Whether that leads into a sustainable rebound or not it remains to be seen but this is historically a critical level for the market.
More specifically, as you can see on the charts above, the 1W MA50 has initiated every Cycle's final rally since 2013! To make this special occurrence even more interesting, every such consolidation/ pull-back before the final rally, took place within the August - September period (2021, 2017, 2013).
So if it holds once again, we see no reason why it shouldn't start again the Cycle's last rebound. And since the first two Cycles are more similar with each other, we might assume that the current would be more similar with 2017. Since that one topped very close to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the low of the final pull-back, we could get a peak this time around $140k.
Do you think history will repeat itself again and hit at least $140000? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The August-September bottom cheat sheet!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just entered its 2-year Buy Zone, which is a Higher Lows belt that has priced its last 3 major bottoms and since the November 2022 Bear market bottom, has been the most optimal long-term buy entry.
A very interesting fact is that the August - September period since 2023 has been such a bottom formation, with the 1W RSI Support Zone, providing an additional confirmation for a long-term buy entry, also present during the March - April 2025 Tariff led correction.
As a result, it is highly likely to start seeing the new Bullish Leg starting by the first 1-2 weeks of September, with the previous two rising by +96.86 and +105.80% respectively. That suggests that BTC could marginally surpass $200k before the Cycle peaks. That would also be just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from Aprils Low, similar to the December 2024 High.
So do you think $200000 is possible for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Distribution Pattern Signals Crash Into CME Gap at 92kIt is always the same playbook at this point and it is getting boring to watch. The same double top distribution pattern repeats again and again. This is the game they play, wiping out both shorts and longs before the real rally begins.
The last time we saw this setup Bitcoin pulled back 32 percent into the CME gap at 77k. The next gap sits at 92k and you can bet they will dump it down there too. In reality it is not even that big of a move, just 26 percent, perfectly in line with previous pullbacks.
The real story is the fear it will create. This lines up with September, historically Bitcoin’s worst performing month and a time when blood usually runs in the streets.
DO NOT FALL FOR THIS BEAR TRAP AND SHAKE OUT
Bitcoin Holds Bullish StructureFenzoFx—Bitcoin formed equal highs after sweeping liquidity above $117,046.00 on Friday. Technically, Bitcoin remains bullish due to Friday’s price displacement.
Immediate resistance lies at $113,677.00. If bulls close and stabilize above this level, the uptrend may resume, targeting the equal highs at $117,046.00. A further rise could fill half of the bearish fair value gap toward $119,700.00.
Currently, no bearish setup is expected unless BTC reaches the premium price zone of $119,700.00 and above.
Bitcoin Daily Analysis – The Trend Is Our FriendGood morning, Guys,
I’ve prepared a fresh Bitcoin analysis for you.
🔹 First off, I stand firmly behind my long-term targets of **127,000 – 137,000 – 146,000**. I previously shared these levels with you in a weekly analysis.
🔍 Now let’s shift to the 1-day chart:
What is Bitcoin telling us right now?
📉 If the **112,000 level breaks downward**, we could enter a correction phase toward **102,000** or even **99,500**. I expect strong buying interest to return from those zones.
📈 After that, we’re facing a key resistance structure between **123,000 – 120,000**.
But I believe this zone will also be broken—because we’re in an **uptrend**, and…
💬 **The trend is our friend. Never forget that.**
Bitcoin Long Setup: PRZ + Heavy Supports in Action!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), as I expected in the previous idea , fell to at least $112,640 and is completing the second target (Full Target) .
Bitcoin is approaching the Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) and 100_SMA(Daily) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($112,200-$111,000) , generally , heavy supports and resistances are NOT broken with the first attack , so I am publishing this analysis with the label ''LONG'' .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin is completing a main wave 5 , as the main wave 3 was an extended wave .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect Bitcoin to start rising from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($112,200-$111,000) and increase to at least $113,617 .
Second Target: $114,391
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $115,157-$114,599
Note: Stop Loss(SL): $110,100
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Are the 0.5 Fib and 1D MA100 coming to the rescue?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for exactly the past 4 months (since April 22) and the recent correction off its All Time High (ATH) has broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since July 02 and is about to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
The 1D MA100 has been intact since the day the Channel Up started so it is on its own a strong Support. It gets stronger though, considering that this is where the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level is from its ATH, which is exactly where BTC rebounded (and priced the previous Higher Low) on June 22.
As you can see, there is a very high degree of symmetry among the Bullish and Bearish Legs of the Channel Up and the 0.5 Fib is -11.09% from the recent High, which is again the % correction of BTC's last Bearish Leg.
Notice also the similarities between the Bearish Legs' fractals, being on Lower Highs and Lower Lows. A new Lower Low now, would potentially signal the bottom.
As far as the next Bullish Leg is concerned, based on the previous one, we can expect a rise to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, which is at $140000.
Do you think history will be repeated once more? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Maintains Bearish MomentumFenzoFx—Bitcoin stayed bearish, trading around $113,500.0 in today’s session. During the Asian hours, it swept liquidity above the previous day’s high and quickly dipped below $114,627.00.
The next buy-side liquidity zone lies at $111,903.00. The bearish outlook remains intact unless this level is swept.
BTC Trendline Broken: 110k Support Is the Last Stand1. Recent Context
In my previous BTC analysis, I wrote that as long as the ascending trendline held, bulls had nothing to fear. But on Monday, that line was broken to the downside. After a few hesitations, I decided to close my long positions around 116k.
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2. The Key Question
Can bulls defend 110–111k, or are we heading for a deeper correction?
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3. Why the Chart Looks Weak Short-Term
• The trendline break changes the bullish structure.
• Bulls must defend 110–111k; if this zone cracks, the damage could be significant.
• To regain momentum, BTC must break back above 120k. Without that, upside looks limited.
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4. Trading Plan
At this point, I’m out of the market.
• I won’t buy into 111k support even if a rebound is probable.
• Instead, I’ll treat that rebound as a chance to sell short at better prices.
• 120k zone is the ideal level for a short setup, both technically and from a risk/reward perspective.
BITCOIN 2020 fractal gives huge buy signal now.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) emphatically for the first time in 2 months, sounding short-term fear alarms ahead of the key macroeconomic news of this week. The 1D RSI hit 40.00 however, which has been an automatic buy on both major recent lows (August 01 and June 21).
Short-term aside, it is a fractal from BTC's last Cycle in 2020 (chart on the right) that perhaps offers the most comprehensive long-term outlook, which is what has always helped us maintain an objective, stress-free perspective.
As you can see, both today and 2020 fractals display not only similar price actions but also RSI sequences. Even though naturally the 2020 rebound on the Pivot trend-line has been way more aggressive as the market was still recovering and adjusting the price from the COVID crash, today's price action display's similar phases but in a more sustainable rise.
Based on the RSI fractals, we could be in similar phase as early December 2020. This suggests that there is still upside potential that may extend to as high as 150 - 170k before this Cycle is over.
Do you think that this is a solid Profit Zone for the Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin on the Edge! Will $114K Hold or Break?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started to decline from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) as I expected in the previous idea .
Bitcoin currently appears to have managed to break the Support zone($116,900-$115,730) and is currently trading near the Support zone($114,720-$113,570) , 50_EMA(Daily) , Monthly Pivot Point , and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($114,300-$113,841) .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it appears that Bitcoin is completing microwave 4 of the main wave 3 (probably), and we should expect a re-attack on the Support zone($114,720-$113,570) in the coming hours .
I expect Bitcoin to attack the Support zone($114,720-$113,570) at least once more after completing the pullback to the Support zone($116,900-$115,730) from Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($116,411-$115,760) and if it breaks , we should expect a drop to the Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) .
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $120,115-$118,751
Note: Stop Loss(SL): $117,320
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.