BITCOIN and the 'myth' behind following the Global SupplyA lot of talk is being thrown around lately regarding the M2 Global Supply (black trend-line) and how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) will follow it upwards as it explodes. Those claims have intensified especially in the past 2 weeks as an argument to support BTC's recovery following the decline from its $126k Top.
However, history shows that the two don't have to be correlated. In fact, during the past two Cycles, BTC topped at least 105 days (15 weeks) before the Global M2 did. Especially during the previous Cycle (2021), BTC has broken well below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and stayed under up until the M2 peaked also. Note that the 1W MA50 is what has (so far) supported BTC's current correction.
As a result, no hopes of recovery can be rest upon a currently rising Global Liquidity. And if BTC's Cycle Top was 2 weeks ago, the Global Liquidity might peak 15 weeks from that, around January 19 2026 (possibly around the time the stock market peaks too).
But what do you think? Do you think Bitcoin will catch up to the rising M2 Global Supply or will continue its decline into a new Bear Cycle as it has historically happened? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoinsignals
Everyone Thinks the Cycle Is Over — $300K–$450K Q4 2026Sentiment is mostly bearish with everyone calling the cycle top because 1064 days have passed. It seems everyone has finally cracked the Bitcoin code based on historical data and simple mathematics. Apparently, it has become so easy to time Bitcoin that everyone must be right.
But if you have been around long enough, you know Bitcoin always does the unexpected. When everyone is watching the same pattern and timeframe, the market tends to move in the opposite direction. History has shown this repeatedly, and I believe this time will be no different.
My target remains 300-425k by Q4 2026 with ETH between 25-33k. To understand how I arrived at this timeframe and prediction, check the ETH TA below for context.
The model shown above is the Bitcoin Power Law Corridor model. If you have followed me for a while, you know I normally use another model shown below.
Unfortunately, the BLX Bitcoin chart is no longer being updated and that model only works with that data, so it has to be retired.
Months ago, my take aligned with the Bitcoin cycle ending around this time, but new data has shifted the outlook toward an extended cycle into 2026 or possibly the completion of the standard four-year cycle.
From the chart above, you can see that whenever Bitcoin breaks the center line of the Power Law model, it enters the final phase of the cycle. This cycle has not yet closed a single monthly candle above that line. Historically, once it does, the final move begins and usually lasts about a year. Each move from the center line has been smaller over time, averaging around -48 percent per cycle, implying a potential 130-145 percent move this time, which aligns with a 300k Bitcoin target.
RSI currently sits at 67.
$111,191.670 — Mayer Multiple 1.03
Mayer is at 1.03, yet I am supposed to believe the herd that the cycle top is already in. It would be wild to top out with such a low count.
No Pi cycle cross.
Until we break and close a weekly candle inside the Gaussian channel, I will say the run is not over. In the last cycle, we touched it twice before falling in on the third attempt. Perhaps the same happens again and it marks the top, but this analysis will only be invalidated if we get that close inside. Until then, there is no reason to worry.
Bitcoin at the Top of Wedge – Bearish Reversal Coming Again?As I expected in yesterday’s idea , Bitcoin dropped to the $107,800 level, hitting its target .
In the last few hours, BTC started to pump again and is now trading near a cluster of resistances : the 100_SMA(Daily) , the 50_SMA(Daily) , and Cumulative Short Liquidation($117,517-$116,020) . This creates a strong resistance , and I don’t think Bitcoin will easily break through it. ( As of the time of writing, there’s no fresh news influencing the market .)
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like Bitcoin is forming a Triple Three Correction(WXYXZ ).
On the Classical Technical side, Bitcoin is at the top of an ascending broadening wedge pattern , which is a reversal pattern . There’s also a Regular Bearish Divergence (RD-) between the two peaks in this pattern.
I expect that in the coming hours, Bitcoin will start to drop again. After breaking the important $111,000 level , it could fall at least to the lower line of the ascending broadening wedge .
Note: In these past few days, the Bitcoin and crypto market have been quite volatile and driven by news, especially related to US-China tensions. So always manage your risk carefully and avoid impulsive decisions based on sudden headlines.
New CME Gap: $107,690-$107,220
Cumulative Long Liquidation: $107,105-$104,297
Cumulative Short Liquidation: $115,241-$113,454
Stop Loss(SL): $116,200
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Bitcoin AMD for London Session - LONG We are currently observing a typical Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution (AMD) entry model to support a bullish bias for Bitcoin in the upcoming hours (London Session).
At present, price action appears to be in an accumulation phase. We anticipate a potential liquidity sweep of a key swing low , specifically, the previous day’s low (PDL), which aligns with a Point of Interest (POI): an unmitigated H1 order block.
Sell-side liquidity from the previously established dealing range has already been swept, indicating that a manipulation phase may be underway.
Based on this structure, we can reasonably expect a price movement toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the prior range.
Inverse Head & Shoulders on Bitcoin – Breakout or Bull Trap?Right now, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is moving within its Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) .
Over the past couple of days, it tried twice to break this area but couldn’t. One big reason is that recently, there was news that Japan is considering allowing banks to invest in crypto . Also, yesterday, Trump confirmed he’ll meet with China’s president on October 31st , which the market took as a positive sign that US-China tensions might ease. Previously, the market dropped on news of potential tariffs, and now it’s reacting to the possible easing of those tensions.
In the last 24-48 hours , Bitcoin has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern , which could signal a short-term bullish reversal. However, there are still important resistance levels and cumulative short liquidation areas overhead. We need to see if Bitcoin can break through those.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin still seems to be in a corrective structure, and until it gets above around $116,000 , there’s still a risk of further downside. So we shouldn’t get too excited about the recent 48-hour bounce.
In short, I expect Bitcoin might push up to those Resistance lines , the Resistance zone($114,300-$113,000) , and Cumulative Short Liquidation($115,241-$113,454) , thanks to the inverse head and shoulders, but it could face resistance there and possibly drop again.
Note: It seems that we may see an increase in Bitcoin with the opening of the US market, but because the SPX500 index( SP:SPX ) is in a correction situation, we can expect Bitcoin to fall again.
Note: Crypto market conditions depend on many parameters these days, and be sure to observe capital management.
New CME Gap: $107,690-$107,220
Cumulative Long Liquidation: $107,000-$105,782
Cumulative Short Liquidation: $112,241-$111,398
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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BITCOIN The NIGHTMARE chart you don't want to see right nowBitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the verge of establishing an LMACD Bearish Cross on the 1M time-frame, which for better reliability needs to close the current 1M candle (October) to confirm it.
** The nightmare LMACD Bearish Cross **
As the title says, this is a 'nightmare' development for the market, certainly not something that the majority of investors want to see right now, as this Bearish Cross has had disastrous effects every time it took place at the end of the 4-year Cycle.
First of all, let's not allow being overlooked the fact that the 1M LMACD is also reversing right before a test of its multi-year Lower Highs trend-line. That line priced all previous Cycle Tops.
** Is this a Cycle Top? Best-worst case scenarios**
Back to he Bearish Cross, it has always been formed around Cycle Tops as well. More specifically, the one that was formed after January 2014, was already on the 3rd month after the Cycle Top. The one that was formed after February 2018, was on the 4th month of the Bear Cycle. More recently, the one that was formed on August 2021 was 3 months before the Cycle Top. Interestingly enough, that was a peculiar Cycle with an (almost) Double Top, which was no surprise that the LMACD got rejected on its Lower Highs trend-line much earlier on the April 2021 Top.
As a result, the best case scenario based on this model for BTC is to have another 3 months of Bull, especially if it gets aided by favorable news (Trade deal, rate cuts, adoption). The more likely however historically, especially if October closes in red in 10 days, is that Bitcoin has entered a new Bear Cycle and this MACD Bearish Cross comes to confirm it.
** How low can it go?? **
What's even worse is that, if we've already seen the Top, the market tends to decline on average by more than -80% historically, with the last Bear Cycle suffering losses of almost -78% (the softest Cycle of all). It was also the only one that closed a month (numerous 1M candles actually) below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) unlike the first two, which used that as a Support/ Cycle Bottom. As a result, the best case scenario if a new Bear Cycle has already started is to place a bottom on its 1M MA50 around $60000 - 65000 and the worst to decline by -78% around $30000 (or a little worse).
Again, not the kind of technical analysis most want to be seeing right now..
** The positive look **
For conclusion, we should always keep in mind that the fundamental scenery/ environment changes with every Cycle in a more favorable way, e.g this Cycle we had much stronger institutional adoption, even national treasuries and more importantly we saw the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF by Blackrock which was a game changer in capital inflows. You don't see often such investment bank giants 'allowing' one of their products to tank by -80%.
But what do you think? Are we already in a Bear Cycle or there are some more months left in the Bull's tank? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin BTC Analysis - PM NY Session
Bullish Bitcoin Analysis – PM Session 💰🐂
Recent price action on the 1-hour timeframe (H1) has shown weak candle closures, indicating a failure to achieve significant displacement.
However, we observed a recent sweep of the previous daily high (PDH), followed by a strong close above that level.
This move led to a market structure shift (MSS), suggesting a potential transition to a bullish trend.
With this bullish bias in mind, I have identified a key Fibonacci range that aligns with several confluences supporting the bullish outlook.
Notably, there remains an unfilled bullish imbalance (BISI) on the H1 chart, in addition to a nearby H1 order block.
Furthermore, the optimal trade entry (OTE) level aligns closely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, further strengthening the case for a long position. - 109 000 is the level we’re looking at 👀
BITCOIN Did the 1W MA50 save the Cycle again??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has now completed two straight weeks since the Friday 10 flash-crash of almost touching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but managing to hold it and rebound. This is not the first time we see this pattern during this Cycle. In fact it is a frequent one that systemically fuels the 3-year Channel Up of this Bull Cycle.
As you can see, ever since the November 21 2022 bottom of the previous Bear Cycle, the current Bull Cycle has been trading within this Channel Up pattern, which after it broke above the 1W MA50 and in March 2023, turned it into its long-term Support.
More specifically, since that day, every time BTC broke and closed a weekly candle below its 1W MA20 (red trend-line), it dropped further to its 1W MA50 to find Support, priced the Channel Up Higher Low and rebounded.
This has happened so far 3 times (excluding now), in September 2023 it almost touched the 1W MA50 and rebounded but in August 05 2024 and April 07 2025, it marginally breached it and then rebounded. Based on this, BTC is currently at or very close to the new Higher Low (Support), hence a buy opportunity.
The only condition that hasn't been fulfilled, is the 1W RSI entering its 2-year Support Zone. If the 1W MA50 indeed holds and manages to keep closing the 1W candles above it, that would be an indication that the Bull Cycle is still in effect. The minimum rally a pull-back has given throughout the Cycle has been +92.44%, so as long as it holds, there are strong probabilities that BTC may reach a least $143000.
Do you share that model's optimism or you think the new Bear Cycle has already started? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Is Bitcoin still bearish? (1D)In response to the question of whether Bitcoin is still bearish | the answer is yes.
After the drop, Bitcoin has reached a strong support zone, where it’s currently reacting and consuming lower supports. A rejection from the red zone is expected.
However, keep in mind that due to the high volume of short positions, the red zone might even experience a fakeout before the drop continues.
A daily candle closing above the invalidation level would invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BITCOIN vs Dollar's Cycles. Has the new BTC Bear Cycle started?This is as simple as it can get. And obviously, it is not the first time we give you this chart. This is a cross-asset comparison between Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) illustrated by the black trend-line. It represents the Cycles of the two assets, typically negatively correlated across the span of 15 years.
As you can see, when the USD bottoms and starts a new Bull Cycle, BTC tops and starts a new Bear Cycle. Similarly vice versa with USD's Bull Cycle tops against BTC's Bear Cycle bottoms.
So the million dollar question is whether the USD has bottomed again. Based on the 4-year Cycle Model and as the Sine Waves illustrate on this chart, it may have. It is no surprise that while the DXY has formed Higher Lows since July 07, BTC has topped and turned sideways on ranged trading with a new Low made on last Friday's crash.
It is not necessary for the USD to break upwards aggressively in order for BTC to start dropping aggressively into its new Bear Cycle. As Jan - March 2018, Jan - March 2013 and May - August 2011 have shown, the USD may range sideways, as long as it is a clear sign of bottom formation, while Bitcoin is already into its Bear Cycle.
So the conclusion is that as long as the USD keeps trading sideways without making a new Low, it is quite like for Bitcoin to be entering its new Bear Cycle. Sound planning, calculated profit taking and gradual (to say the least) de-risking may be required.
So do you think Bitcoin's new Bear Cycle has started? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Roadmap: Is a Major Correction the Next Stop?As I expected from the previous analysis , Bitcoin did start to drop and hit its targets .
Now, with the news that the U.S. might impose a 100% tariff on China , we saw Bitcoin sharply sell off last night. Actually, as I mentioned in my previous ideas , the rally from about $109,000 to around $126,199(ATH ) (which was a new all-time high for Bitcoin) had relatively low volume. That was a sign that a correction might be on the way, and last night’s news just acted as a trigger to speed it up.
In fact, what took Bitcoin 10 days to climb was reversed in about 4 days , showing how strong the sellers are right now.
Educational tip: You can use volume candles on TradingView to see which candles had higher volume—the thicker the candle, the more significant the move.
Now, the big question: will Bitcoin keep dropping or bounce back?
Right now, it’s sitting near a cluster of Support lines and close to the daily 200_SMA(Daily) and the 50_SMA(Weekly) , as well as a Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) . Last night’s drop was basically the first test of these supports .
Since it’s the weekend and volumes are usually lower, we don’t expect a huge downward move in the next 48 hours.
Bitcoin might do a pullback to the broken Resistance zone($114,820-$113,180) and then continue its drop.
According to Elliott Wave analysis , Bitcoin seems to be completing a microwave 4 of the main wave 3 .
I expect that after Bitcoin completes , we might see it continue downward and fill the CME Gap($111,355-$109,915) early in the next week.
So, do you think the major correction for Bitcoin has started or not? Let me know what you think!
Note: In case the Support lines break, there’s also a chance that we might see a Death Cross (where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average), which could signal further bearish momentum.
Note: Around the $108,000 level, we have huge buy orders stacked up, which might act as a significant support zone.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Is last Friday's flash crash similar to COVID's?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a strong flash crash last Friday following President Trump's tariff threats to China. That brought back memories of the March 2020 COVID crash. But are those that similar??
Quick answer: strength/ aggression wise no. Last Friday's crash marked 'just' a -18.34% decline from its top on a week basis. COVID's crash, which was longer admittedly, pulled the price down by -62.95% from February's 2020 High. Massive difference in market psychology and dynamics (even though we may have not seen the last of the current Tariff Crash). And that is the reason one chart is on the 1D time-frame and the other on the 1W time-frame.
However this is the exact reason that they look so similar in technical structure. As you can see both started on a Lower Highs downtrend, which broke to the upside that led to the eventual crash that broke below both the MA50 and MA200 (blue and orange trend-lines respectively). Even their RSI structures are similar.
The COVID crash taught us that as long as the MA200 closed the candles above it, a massive rally was sustained to new Highs. If the same structure is followed on the current fractal, we may see BTC rising by as high as $150k.
So what do you think? Do those two crashes share similarities that can justify a market recovery now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Eyes Double Top After SelloffFenzoFx—Bitcoin is consolidating near $112,160.00 after a major selloff, testing this level as support. Price action shows a double top at $116,078.
From a technical view, BTC may aim for this level if it holds above immediate support at $112,143.0.
A close below $112,143.0 could trigger a deeper downtrend, with the next bearish target likely at $100,000.0.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Will It Recover More?
Bitcoin nicely respected a major daily support cluster,
bouncing from that.
A breakout of a resistance line of a symmetrical triangle pattern
on an hourly time frame suggests the strengths of the buyers.
I think that the market will continue recovering soon and reach 118000.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BITCOIN Short squeeze in action with 1W MA50 saving the day?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is rebounding rather as aggressively as it flash crashed on Friday following President Trump's threats on new China tariffs. We've seen the outcome of such Trade War threats back in February - April. In fact that was the last time (April 09 2025) that BTC hit its 1W MA50 (red trend-line). Following that, an enormous long-term rally followed that made new All Time Highs (ATH).
Friday was the first time since then that the price almost touched the 1W MA50, while breaking through the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 22. Friday's Low is so far technically a Higher Low on the 1-year Rising Wedge pattern.
The more U.S. and China seem to agree on a new truce and not move forward to escalate threats into actions, the stronger the current short squeeze will be in the market and the current rally will most likely target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Rising Wedge on the key psychological level of $130000.
If however it appears that agreements fall through and the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Rising Wedge breaks, we expect a deeper and potentially more aggressive fall to he 1W MA100 (green trend-line) around $85000. It also has to be mentioned that Friday's Low hit the 1D RSI 4-month Support Zone and rebounded.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Are you worried about this?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is pulling back aggressively today following Trump's China-tariffs related news and this weekly rejection is far from ideal technically as well.
In recent years it's been unusual to look at the market on anything but a logarithmic scale, which is natural as it offers a fair representation of BTC's remarkable gains and parabolic Cycles.
On today's analysis however we present the long-term price action on the 1W time-frame without being on the log scale. And as you can see what stands out is a Higher Highs trend-line that dates back to the December 11 2017 Cycle Top, almost 8 years ago.
This trend-line is anything but comforting at the moment as it has caused numerous rejections with the strongest being the April 12 2021 High. More recently it has formed the July 14 2025 High, the August 11 2025 High, last week's (September 29 2025) High and so far the current one (October 06 2025).
This is far from ideal and it gets worse seeing that since the March 04 2024 High, the 1W RSI has been under Lower Highs, which is of course a Bearish Divergence against the markets Higher Highs, similar to the Lower Highs of the previous Cycle that formed the November 08 2021 Top.
This time is indeed a little different though as the RSI's current 3rd Lower High is still a Higher High for BTC while on the previous Cycle it was (March 21 2022) already a Lower High for the price as well inside a Bear Cycle that has already started.
Still, do you believe this 8-year Higher Highs trend-line rejection is alarming or not? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Leaps for a New Bullish Run Above this ResistanceFenzoFx—Bitcoin remains bullish. Yesterday, price dipped below Tuesday’s low, but failed to close beneath it. This support zone is backed by a bullish fair value gap and anchored VWAP from September 28.
Immediate resistance stands at $122,335.0. If bulls close above this level, BTC/USD could target $124,254.0, followed by all-time-high. However, the bullish outlook is invalidated if BTC/USD closes below recent lower lows.
BITCOIN How low can it pull back??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) got rejected on the Higher Highs trend-line we mentioned on our last analysis and is already pulling back. The question is how far can it drop?
Today we expand on that analysis by applying the Fibonacci Channel on the Higher Highs trend-line. Instantly we can see that the Channel Up has two almost perfectly symmetrical Bullish Legs (+17.30% and +17.61% respectively).
The key on this pattern is the 4H MA100 (red trend-line). Every time BTC broke below it since May 29, the decline extended all the way to at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Since the 1D RSI also got rejected on its Resistance Zone, we expect a pull-back towards its Support Zone and if the 4H MA100 breaks, further extension towards the 1D MA50. We estimate a potential target to be $116000, which is marginally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, where the August 02 bounce took place. Needless to say, a break (and 1D candle close) above the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line), invalidates any pull-back scenario and, as mentioned previously, constitutes a bullish break-out to a new pattern/ rally.
What do you think will happen next? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN This is the last Resistance standing.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) got rejected (and is currently pulling back) on the Higher Highs trend-line that started on July 14. This is technically the last Resistance before a complete technical bullish break-out that will take the market to a new pattern out of this 3-month consolidation phase.
Until that happens, there are high probabilities to extend this pull-back all the way to the 0.382 Fibonacci extension ($119.5k), which is the minimum level that all similar corrections within these 3 months pulled back to.
As you can see such similar corrections have all been on 4H RSI Bearish Divergences, which have been Lower Highs against BTC's Higher Highs, typical indicator of a Top.
So what do you think will happen next, pull-back or break-out? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 125k broke (new ATH) and it's not stopping there!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit $125700 yesterday, making a new All Time High (ATH), closing the 2nd strongest 1W candle of the year. This is a confirmed detachment from the Former Resistance-turned-Support trend-line, following a double bottom bounce on the Bull Cycle's (Higher Lows) Buy Zone.
As you can see, this structure is similar to the first green zone bounce in August 2023 that eventually rose to its 2.0 Fibonacci extension before turning sideways for a while. Even the December 16 2024 High was on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, even though the formation that preceded it (March - October 2024), wasn't that much similar to the other two.
Based on that, we can see BTC approaching $160000 (Fib 2.0 ext).
Do you expect the market to hit that level? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Hits $124K—Volume Lags BehindFenzoFx—Bitcoin reached a new all-time high at $124,533.0. While price broke higher, volume lags behind on the cumulative profile. The trend remains bullish, but a pullback is likely.
Retail traders should wait for BTC to dip into the liquidity void (fair value gap) around $116,000.0, offering a discounted entry into the bull market. If BTC/USD closes and stabilizes below this gap, deeper consolidation may follow toward the next support at $111,582.0.
BITCOIN Are we going to see 'UPTOBER' this time??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has historically seen incredible rallies during the month of October and even more so those Octobers of the last years of Bull Cycles, like the one we are at now. Those rally phases have been very accurately called 'Uptober' rallies.
More specifically, the last three such Octobers (2021, 2017 and 2013) have been massively bullish, all starting after September corrections (Channel Down patterns). In 2013, October reached the 2.382 Fibonacci extension from September's correction, in 2017 and 2021 it reached the 1.786 Fibonacci ext.
As a result, if 'Uptober' is repeated again, this historic price actions gives us an optimistic Target at $132k (Fib 2.382) and a less optimistic one at $125.5k (Fib 1.786).
Do you think we will get such Uptober one more time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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