BTC: It’s October againOctober or Uptober (as they say) is a month wherein BTC has demonstrated a beautiful pattern over the course of its history. BTC’s return in October can be guessed depending on where the month falls in BTC’s well-known 4 year cycle.
The month of October that falls after BTC has peaked post-halving is expected to have negative returns as BTC remains in a bearish trend. While the remaining 3 months of October in BTC’s 4 year cycle are expected to have positive returns as BTC remains in a bullish trend.
As such, following months of October were bearish: Oct 2014, Oct 2018, Oct 2022. The remaining months of October had positive returns (except Oct 2011 & Oct 2012; which can be excused as very early months before BTC established a 4 year cycle).
Currently, in Oct 2025 BTC is expected to have a positive return as it is in a bullish post-halving trend. Based on the above facts and future expectations, traders can position themselves better to capitalize gains in their portfolios.
Good Luck!!
Bitcon
XRPUSDT: double bottom and waiting for a breakoutOn the 4H chart, XRPUSDT is shaping a double bottom around the 1.00 level, and the price is now approaching the key resistance area at 3.14–3.32. A breakout above this zone would be a strong confirmation that the bearish phase is losing momentum.
Technically, the scenario suggests a breakout above 3.14, followed by a retest, and then continuation toward 3.32 and 3.57. This fits the classic pattern where accumulation turns into momentum-driven buying.
From a fundamental perspective, XRP still draws attention thanks to Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC and the use of the token in cross-border transactions. Positive headlines can accelerate the rally, though broader crypto market corrections or regulatory pressure could put the brakes on growth.
This is exactly the kind of setup where expectations and reality may diverge. The structure looks bullish, but without a confirmed breakout, the market can easily roll back. Better to wait for confirmation and trade with discipline.
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
Bitcoin is still moving inside an upward channel.
After its strong rally, the price has entered a corrective phase and is now positioned around the midline of the channel.
We expect the correction to extend toward the support zone and the lower boundary of the channel after some short-term fluctuations.
From that area, a potential rebound could trigger the next bullish wave.
If support holds, Bitcoin is likely to resume its upward movement toward the upper boundary of the channel.
As long as the price stays above the key support area, the medium-term outlook remains bullish.
What do you think? Will Bitcoin bounce from the channel bottom and head for the top again?
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
Bitcoin appears to be moving within a descending channel. Upon reaching the upper boundary of the channel, which coincided with the major resistance zone at 117,000 – 120,000 USDT (and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ), the price entered a corrective move.
The short-term ascending trendline has already been broken.
As long as the price stays below 118,000 – 120,000, the correction is likely to continue.
Despite the short-term selling pressure, the medium-term trend remains bullish.
The ongoing correction could serve as a healthy pullback before the larger uptrend resumes.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
BTC Looks Bearish (12H)From the point marked as **Start** on the chart, it seemed that a bullish phase had begun on Bitcoin. This bullish phase formed a triangle, and now we are at the end of this triangle.
With a pullback to the red zone, a further drop could occur. The main target of this bearish move appears to be the 88K channel.
This view remains valid unless a daily candle closes above the invalidation level.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Bitcoin’s 1.5-2 year downtrend has begun. (Phase 1)As predicted in the previous analysis, Bitcoin saw its two-year price ceiling at around $109K when Trump entered the White House, and Bitcoin will have downtrend for about a 1.5-2 year.
This decline will have 3 phases, which I have shown in the first phase chart in 3 stages.
As you can see in the chart, in the first phase, Bitcoin will fall to around $81K and then rise again to near the price ceiling. But in my opinion, it will not be able to create a new price ceiling and will have a heavier decline towards the $50K-$60K range.
@JalilRafieefard
February 18, 2025
Bitcoin Roadmap Update: Cup & Handle Targeting $148K
Hello traders, today I am reposting my analysis for Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe with updates.
Right Window – Previous Roadmap
The right chart shows my earlier analysis “Bitcoin Roadmap to $144K by September – Daily Chart Breakout Set”. In that setup, the main uptrend channel (black) from October 2023 and sub-channels (red and cyan) were mapped.
Although I mistakenly closed the trade after the first target was achieved, I still believe the uptrend from mid-March 2024 is ongoing. I have extended my projection to mid-November 2025, with a target of $148K.
Left Window – Current Structure
On the left chart, we see a new bullish pattern developing. This can be interpreted as either a cup & two handles or an inverse head & shoulders.
Price has already closed above the neckline (white line).
A successful retest of the neckline adds confidence to the breakout.
Fibonacci extension levels project:
200% ≈ $134K
260% ≈ $148K
As long as Bitcoin trades above $100K, I believe the next phases are toward $134K and then $148K.
Proposed Position Setup
Entry zone: Current price area (~$116K)
Stop-loss: ~$95K (conservative placement below $100K)
Target: $148K
Alternate stop for aggressive traders: Weekly close below $105K (red shoulders-support line)
This setup balances both faster and longer-term trading styles.
Risk-to-Reward Evaluation
Potential Profit: ~$32K (from $116K to $148K)
Potential Loss: ~$21K (from $116K to $95K)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1.5 : 1
This is acceptable for a weekly swing trade, especially given the uptrend confirmation and multi-pattern confluence.
Key Takeaways & Timeline
Trend bias: Bullish
Main support: $100K (conservative stop-loss below this)
Main targets: $134K and $148K
Expected timeline: Mid-November 2025
Invalidation: Weekly close below $100K (or $105K for aggressive traders)
I remain bullish on Bitcoin as long as price respects the green uptrend line (Oct 2023) and holds above $100K. Volatility is expected, but structure remains intact.
Trade safe and size positions according to personal risk tolerance.
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase after printing a new all-time high and reaching the top of its ascending channel.
This pullback is expected to extend towards the key support zones, and in a deeper scenario, it could test the bottom of the channel.
As long as Bitcoin holds above these support areas and reacts positively at the lower boundary of the channel, the broader outlook remains bullish, with potential for new all-time high
However, a decisive break below the channel’s bottom would invalidate the medium-term bullish scenario and raise the risk of a deeper correction.
The current correction may provide a valuable opportunity for medium- to long-term traders to re-enter the market.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Bitcoin : Stay heavy on positionsThe market continues to hold support at the prior short-term overbought resistance zone, attempting to stage a rebound. I’ll maintain my position with the same outlook as before.
Bitcoin : Stay heavy on positions (2x)
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
BTCUSD set to rise $124482?BTCUSD trade setup for today :
Before we look at potential entry in this pair first let’s look at multiple timeframe analysis in this market.
Monthly: 124482 Monthly resistance price has got rejection strongly from the top
Weekly: Price has just got just broken out of the support
Daily: Price on the daily significant support level
Entry timeframe 4H : Price has printed 4h has got rejected strongly from the daily support level.
Possible trade recommendation : Bullish trade with high probability set up
ETH at $4,100 – Can Bulls Defend Key Support Before FOMC..?ETH + FOMC = Volatility Ahead ? 🔥
Ethereum at Make-or-Break Zone: $4,100 Support in Focus!
Ethereum (ETH/USDT) on the 4H timeframe is showing a decisive battle between bulls and bears. After topping near $4,700, ETH has been in a steady downtrend, respecting the descending trendline.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
* Immediate Support: $4,100 – $4,150 (0.5 Fib retracement)
* Major Support: $3,950 – $4,000 (0.618 Fib retracement)
* Resistance Zone: $4,300 – $4,350 (descending trendline)
* Major Resistance: $4,600 – $4,700 (recent swing high)
📈 Bullish Scenario
✅ A breakout above $4,300 trendline resistance could trigger strong momentum toward $4,500 - $4,600.
✅ Holding $4,100 support will keep buyers in control.
📉 Bearish Scenario
❌ If ETH fails to hold $4,100, expect a deeper retracement toward $4,000 (0.618 Fib).
❌ A break below $3,950 may extend the fall to $3,700 – $3,600.
⚠️ Market Note
📌 Today’s FOMC meeting could heavily impact the crypto market trend.
Expect volatility as Fed commentary on interest rates may guide ETH’s next major move.
⚖️ Conclusion
ETH is at a critical support zone where the next move will define short-term direction.
* Above $4,300 → Bulls regain control.
* Below $4,100 → Bears target $4,000 and lower.
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
After setting a new high, Bitcoin failed to hold above the broken resistance zone and was rejected, falling back below the previously breached level.
The ascending trendline has also been broken, and price is currently attempting a pullback to the broken structure. As long as BTC stays below the resistance zone, we expect a move lower toward the next key support levels.
Bigger picture outlook remains bullish on higher timeframes, but in the short term, a deeper correction is likely.
Invalidation: A strong breakout and daily close above the resistance zone would negate the bearish short-term scenario and resume the broader uptrend.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Why Is Crypto Tumbling? A Trader's Guide to the Recent Sell-OffWhy Is Crypto Tumbling? A Trader's Guide to the Recent Sell-Off 📉
🚨 If you're watching the markets today, you've seen the sea of red. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins have experienced a significant pullback, leaving many to wonder about the cause.
While sharp drops can be unsettling, for the strategic trader, they are critical moments to analyze, not to panic. The current downturn isn't random; it's driven by a convergence of clear geopolitical, technical, and macroeconomic factors.
Here’s a breakdown of what’s happening behind the charts:
1. Geopolitical Uncertainty 🌐
High-stakes diplomatic meetings are underway involving the US, EU, and Ukrainian leaders to discuss the Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Markets inherently dislike uncertainty. As traders await a clear outcome, many are de-risking their portfolios, leading to selling pressure on assets like cryptocurrencies.
2. A Healthy Market Reset 📊
The crypto market just came off a powerful rally where many assets saw gains of 50-100%. This rapid rise led to a buildup of high-leverage positions. Today's dip is forcing a "leverage flush," liquidating over-extended traders. While painful for some, this is a standard market mechanism that washes out speculative excess and often creates a more stable foundation for future growth.
3. Shifting Macroeconomic Tides 📉
Just a week ago, a September interest rate cut was seen as a certainty. Now, recent economic data has slightly lowered those odds. Financial markets, including crypto, are incredibly sensitive to central bank policy. The market is now pricing in this small but significant shift in expectations, contributing to the downward pressure.
The Trader's Perspective: Opportunity in Volatility 💡
So, what does this all mean? It underscores a core principle of successful trading: volatility has a source.
For the prepared trader, this isn't a signal to abandon ship. It's a signal to consult your strategy. This is precisely the kind of environment where a clear, data-driven forecast becomes invaluable.
By understanding the root causes of the sell-off, you can better anticipate market structure, manage risk, and identify potential zones of support where "smart money" may begin to re-accumulate.
This is where the difference between a professional and a novice trader becomes clear. Experienced traders welcome every correction or pullback in the market, seeing it as an opportunity to re-enter and profit from the next upward wave. 📈
Therefore, instead of worry and stress, shift your focus to finding key reversal points and defining new entry zones (Watchboxes) for future trades at more attractive prices. View this price correction as a strategic opportunity, not a threat. 🚀
What are your thoughts on this pullback? Are you seeing it as a risk or an opportunity? Let's discuss in the comments. 👇
Trade Smart!
Navid Jafarian
Strategy: “Breakout Bounce” – Buy the Retest, Ride the WaveHello Traders! BTC has broken out above $118K–$120K after a strong uptrend. Now it’s pausing, and a short-term pullback looks likely. Instead of buying the top, we wait for the price to retest previous resistance (around $112K–$114K), which could turn into support.
MY PLAN:
Wait for pullback to $112K–$114K zone.
Look for a bullish candle (daily or 4H) to confirm entry.
Target: $122K short-term or trail stop if trend continues.
Stop loss: Below $108K to manage risk.
Tip: Don’t chase. Be patient, follow the setup, and use proper risk management.
Please leave a comment and don't forget to support a fellow trader! Also, you can leave in the comments your target and plan ideas!
Have a great day y'all!
-Neo






















