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btc 7-24 update ~ good afternooon, ---- (green path) as of this moment, btc has put in 3 waves down. so long as it doesn't take out the recent low of 21937.0 we can expect for a bullish continuation to around 25~26k. ---- (red path) if price goes below 21937.0 on this next leg, market will invalidate the move up to my original target, and it will confirm the idea that the top has already been put in. ---- waiting for confirmation before my next move. ---- 𝑝𝑠. 𝑖'𝑚 𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑏𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑠𝘩 𝑝𝑖𝑣𝑜𝑡 𝑜𝑛 𝑗𝑢𝑙𝑦 𝟸𝟾𝑡𝘩.
by notoriousbids
1
BTC vs. DXY - Opposing Peaks & Troughs Leads to new Low vs. HighFirst, let me preface this with the fact that I'm typically bullish on Bitcoin, but with all of the recent rhetoric surrounding recession (and just as a general rule of thumb) we do have to consider alternative views. This is me taking a different look at Bitcoin through that lens: So - When Bitcoin began its epic rise in 2016-17, around 2017 we saw DXY top out around 103 and begin to fall as Bitcoin approached a new ATH around mid-December of 2018. Almost exactly one month later, DXY bottomed out at around 88-89 and since then began forming a parallel channel between it's low and high. As we approached DXY's next visit at the top of its channel in mid-March of 2020, we also experienced the so-called "Covid Crash" across markets, with Bitcoin finding its bottom at what appears to be a rising wedge on the 3d log chart, as shown above. Following 2020's crash, Bitcoin began another epic run, and DXY reached troughs near channel bottom (each with higher lows), both within ~3 months of Bitcoin reaching its new ATH and completing the top of the rising wedge formation shown above, with its 2nd high falling slightly below wedge top, similar to DXY failing to find a low at channel bottom. This brings us to today: DXY: - Now DXY has broken above its parallel channel, and if you zoom out to view much higher time-frames, it has also broken out of a falling wedge, and appears to want to make a run. 1x, 1.5x and 2.5x channel break targets shown on the 3d chart above. NOTE - We have not yet re-tested the top of the channel however, while Bitcoin is re-testing the bottom of its wedge. Things could still turn in the opposite direction and we could form a new Peak and Trough here instead. For the long-term HTF 3m chart, it is shown below: BTC: - Meanwhile, Bitcoin has broken below its rising wedge, and appears to want to revisit lows it hasn't seen in years. 1x, 1.5x, and 2.5x rising wedge break targets shown on the 3d chart above. NOTE - Presently, we are re-testing the bottom of that wedge after having broken below it, while DXY hasn't yet re-tested channel top. Again, things could turn around in the opposite direction and we could form our new Peak and Trough in the area where we are now instead. These two things correlate and have shown correlation historically, as you can see on the chart. Should we actually enter a severe recession as many seem to think we're headed for, this is what I think might occur, and the chart provides us evidence that it is possible.
BNC:BLXShort
by dudebruhwhoa
btc 7-21 update (bull-ish projection)in my last post i discussed my bear case, this right here is the "bull-ish" case. bull-ish, because the upward move will be straight chop. alts will perform very well in this environment though, so that's a bonus 💰 --- for this particular scenario to play out, after rejecting 25~26k within the next 7 days, bitcoin will have to see a controlled move down into august which comes down in 3 waves. it cannot go deeper than 50% of the recent move up from 17k. >if structure is held until the middle of next month, we can anticipate higher prices into the months ahead into the mid 30k range. >if price gets rejected in the projected zone, we can look for a decline to about 6k - where a long term bottom will be created. >halving in 2024 will initiate the next bullish cycle, and bitcorn will go into the hundreds of thousands. --- both of these scenarios are possible, and we won't know which one is at play until price action confirms it. patience is 🔑. --- ps. i continue hanging out in cash for the time being until more confirmation is given.
by notoriousbids
5
btc 7-21 update (bearish projection)good evening, thought i'd go ahead and share my two primary cases, to catch everyone up with my thoughts. --- this right here is my primary projection for bitcoin. it implies that a local top will be created within the next 7 days, followed by a sharp move down into august \ september. >downside target on this particular projection is between 13~14k. >once this downside target is in, i think bitcoin can see a significant squeeze up into the 40k region, (maybe even higher) >followed by one more bear phase, which bottoms out between 10~6k in late 2023. >halving in 2024 will send bitcoin into the hundreds of thousands; i'm very bullish long term. quite neutral until a bottom is in just swinging all these bear moves in the mid-term. --- (view next post for the bullish projection)
by notoriousbids
2
btc 7-18 update ~good morning my peoples o/ first off, i'd just like to say, if you caught that long - you da man. secondly, i moved 100% to cash about 2 hours ago. thirdly, my upside target was hit from last nights post: check it out if you haven't: (if you watched my video update yesterday, you knew about this short squeeze, and you knew exactly how high it was going to go). ----- let's talk about the data. as of me writing this, there was a massive long position opened near the absolute top of this move, you know how it goes. fomoers fomo, then get liquidated -> creating a downward spiral. - open interest is sky rocketing into this push up (bearish). - got these 8H dots showing up, signaling significant bearish divergence behind the scenes; here was the last few times this signal has appeared. you can be the judge of this picture: - daily hidden bearish divergence, which is quite prevalent as of now. it can get over exaggerated, as price pushes into the extremes. invalidation of the hidden bear sits at 32k - that is also the level of my bearish invalidation. - we are approaching the daily ichimoku cloud, which has posed as significant resistance in the past. - most of the shorts have been liquidated, but there are a few stragglers remaining. - risk is to the downside for mm, but they could prolong this bull trap awhile longer to get as much liquidity as possible on the way down. ----- overall, my bias has shifted as of this moment - i do wholeheartedly believe we will see new lows. the move down will be far more aggressive than the last one, and it's going to come unexpectedly - like a category 5 hurricane. july 28~30th is the only window you need to know about that is when the market theoretically will pivot, and can take everything from everyone who does not know. ----- ps. this move can easily get over-extended to around 25~26k - that would be the absolute extreme. ----- shared on 7-11 (same upside target for now)
by notoriousbids
8
btc 7-17 (alternative path)good afternoon, this is the alternative path. as of this morning, btc has entered into another quartervois - creating a second potential trajectory. --- if this general area up here is held as support, it could be categorized as a flat. if the flat maintains structure, we could see a short squeeze, as there was quite a bit of shorts opened over night. could squeeze all the way up to 23k before pivoting down into the anticipated x-wave. --- primary scenario:
by notoriousbids
1
btc 7-17 update ~good morning, if you watched my last few videos, you'll know where my minds at. 👇 👇 👇 --- i continue to see an increase in price into the end of this month, to be more precise, into july 30th. we will likely see a fairly large dip into august. depending on how it comes down will be the most important. --- market is currently at a significant crossroad, and what comes next will be highly reliant on how we pullback into august. --- --- --- check out my two primary projections into the next few months via: bull- bear-
by notoriousbids
5
btc 7-16 update pt.2good afternoon o/ previous idea was invalidated; going to try this one more time. --- as of this moment, the local structure does look like a clean 5 waves up. i'm going to be looking for 3 waves down after this fifth wave is completed. likely going to back-test 20k before it attempts to expand higher into the weeks ahead. --- ps. it's possible the fifth wave sees an extension, in which case it can go higher before we get my pull back. shorts are risky, pullbacks are for buying. --- have a great weekend 💸
by notoriousbids
2
btc 7-16 update ~good morning, little overnight bounce; came a few pips earlier than what i had expected. this bounce has risen the downside target where btc will likely find a bottom. 20k range is now the 🔑 going into tomorrow, if it holds - upward expansion is to be expected. can wick deeper into my green box to grab liquidity. --- upside target raised slightly higher as well. --- ps. it's still unknown weather the current move is corrective, or it's the beginning of a much larger move to the upside. will have a better idea before this month is over
by notoriousbids
6
btc 7-14 update ~good afternoon o/ ---- i get this vibe, that btc wants to raid the lows. it might not, but if it did it would be a prime long setup for what is to come. ----- last night i shared two scenarios, i currently favor the bull. love it or hate it, but this is my current opinion about the market. ----- if we do get this deep raid, it would be the perfect bear trap. we'd also likely see a significant short squeeze out of this range. (20%+ in a single day if all goes as planned) ✌
by notoriousbids
6
"the bull-ish case".i'll be 100% honest with you, both of these cases are bullish. once this correction is completed, btc will go into the hundreds of thousands, if not millions into the years ahead. the real challenge, is figuring out the path it takes to complete the current primary corrective wave. --- this case implies that bitcoin has completed a simple zig-zag (labeled as wave w) which would mean that we're in a phase of accumulation right now, getting ready for a move up into the x wave. --- the next 2 weeks in the market will give us a very conclusive picture as to what comes next. by the end of this month i'll be able to eliminate one of these scenarios, and play the one which is remaining. patience is 🔑. --- the upside target for this x wave sits anywhere between 34~42k, but it would most likely take awhile to get there - in a very corrective \ choppy manner. the final push down would go to about 6k into late 2023 (which would be my primary target for this particular scenario).
by notoriousbids
5
"the bear-ish case".good morning my peoples. i've analyzed this count in twenty different ways, and i've narrowed it down to two. i wanted to share the two trajectories which currently hold the highest probability in my honest professional opinion. (view next post for case #2). ---- the first case is called "the miner + hashrate capitulation event". in the recent years, each major low has been greeted with miner + hash-rate capitulation, as displayed down below: we are currently entering an area in the market which is putting significant pressure on the bitcoin miners. if the price goes any lower than 17.6k, a lot of miners will be forced to shut down their operations, and potentially begin to liquidate some of their assets to continue being able to pay for their operations. if i'm not mistaken, it roughly costs 17.6k to mine one btc, so if btc goes below this number - miners would technically be losing money per btc mined (in electricity costs, etc). most of the cycle lows have challenged the miners, and just about every time, we have seen them capitulate which caused an accelerated move to the downside. ---- is this time different? nope. if anything, this time there's more miners than ever before in history, so if btc so chooses to go down this path (which i think is inevitable, it's more a matter of when, rather than if) - then i think we're going to see one hell of a capitulation event. ---- the target for this particular scenario = 10k. though, corrections come in three waves - so this would only be the first wave. i've shared my primary macro outlook in a recent video, this is the count for it:
by notoriousbids
1
majority is always what?majority is always wrong m8, remember that. --- good morning my peoples, i talked to you about the bull, the bear, and the ugly. today i wanna talk to you about how i'm playing this current move, and my reasoning behind it. --- i'm bullish into the next 2 weeks; specifically until july 30th. i don't care about cpi data, nor the us dolla, or what the media says - don't come here talking about any of that lol. my strategy, is to inverse the majority - and if you're coming here talking about anything related to what i have mentioned above - then you are the one i am inversing 😈 --- bitcorn upside target = 25k.
Long
by notoriousbids
4
"that wasn't love, that was just hope".as you all know, the cpi report is coming out in 2 days. if that data fails to beat the current market expectations, i do wholeheartedly believe the markets will see an accelerated move to the downside. it will be lead by long liquidations, miner capitulation, and extreme panic. IF this happens, my target sits in a window between 12\13k. it doesn't have to happen right now, so this is not me saying that it will, but if it did, be ready for it. 👇 ps. 24k is still on the table if the cpi data beats expectations :]. cash is 👑
by notoriousbids
1