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late night thoughts,🌙 take a peak at this weekly channel: notice all of the points of confluence, and pay attention to how the previous levels of support have turned into resistance levels. now that bitcoin has successfully fallen out of the weekly channel, the lower portion of it has in theory now become a significant level of resistance. order books are stacked to the brim with sell orders all around that little red line. there's a really good chance bitcoin continues to consolidate for awhile before it tests it \ drops lower. keep an eye on the line, it is an important one.
by notoriousbids
3
"The Bear Case Part 2"My previous post was a very optimistic outlook. The market might turn into full savage mode \ not even give the longs a chance to exit their positions, but instead create a massive liquidation event instead. Right now, longs are leveraged at levels unseen before. Historical highs on long leverage. If I was market maker 😏, I'd liquidate every last one of them, just so I could get the best possible price for the next bull run. 😈 Some say buy when everyone is fearful, others say short the ponzi. --- Primary Tech macro 👇
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
9
"The Bear Case"Real quick, If the top is indeed in(which i'm not saying it is), I would expect a decline to around 10k on Bitcoin (could go as low as 3k). The path that it takes to get down there is still unclear, but it will become very clear as more data presents itself. --- I'll be 100% honest with you all, i can care less about which direction the market goes. I make money in either direction, and have 0 attachment to either side. There is an infinite amount of possibilities in the market, and this is just one of thousands. Don't use this post to make any kind of financial decision, for I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions, and approach the market with your own unique strategy. Just because i am bearish right now, does not mean that you too should be bearish. This is merely a theory, based on a hundred different factors that are currently at play in the world. 🥂
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
3
a bearish glancetaking a look at this whole picture from a bearish perspective, just to entertain the idea. looks fairly clean to me, the whole vibe of this downward move. it wants to continue in my opinion. the 4h hidden bear, the triple lower highs, quadruple delta divergence, stacked order book on the sell side; the weak alts. all of it. this might be just a little pitstop for a re-distribution phase before further mark down. --- i'm not saying this is what's going to happen, just entertaining the possibility. ✌
by notoriousbids
1
"the bull case for btc"i'd just like to start this off by saying, there is a guy who bought eth at $100 back in the day, the other day he sold off his entire position, and stated "i have had enough with this ****** bear market". (lol) this is the kinda signs i look for before we have an imminent reversal to the upside. ----- all of the anal-cysts who were calling for btc 100k back in the day, are now calling for btc at 20k. the bulls have turned into growling bears, and the bears are swimming in tendies. everyone and their uncle wants bitcoin at 20k, the rich dad poor dad guy is saying hes gonna go all in at 17k, michael saylor is sweating, contemplating his decision making skills. the og bull are capitulating, and there is terror on the streets. ------- this is when i come out and say, when the majority of the market want something to happen, the market tends to throw a big middle finger at them, and does the exact opposite. i'm entertaining the idea that the bottom is in, and no further downside will take place. (possible raid of the local lows to take out the long stops, but no 20k will be seen in 2022). the immediate upside target sits at 130k for the fifth wave, and it will come quicker than you'll have the chance to even blink. one day you'll awaken and see bitcoin up 10k, and the next day will be another 10k. before you know it, it's christmas eve - everyone (including santa) is talking about bitcoin going to 500k, and that's when the real top will be in. 🥂 ps. your boy called the top, and he's about to call the bottom. leaving a few posts down below, feel free to feast on them. big cheers to you if you've made it this far 😎 ps. i am very long.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by notoriousbids
4
dead bull bounce.a "dead-cat" bounce is a temporary recovery in share price after a substantial fall, caused by speculators averaging down on their losing positions. but a wise man once said, "the market can stay irrational longer than they can stay solvent". ---- there's a lot of leveraged longs in this market right now - for every 1 short there are 15 longs. eventually, high leveraged longs (who weren't willing to take a loss along the way) will run out of money \ won't be able to average down on their losing positions anymore - this will cause an exaggerated wave of liquidations in the crypto space. i foresee this capitulatory event approaching in the near horizon. ---- primary wave 4 target = $22,000
Short
by notoriousbids
13
BTC rising wedge to $65k+ then down to $9k-$16k?This is a longer term projection based on the price action that's taken place combined with what I'm seeing from ichimoku + some of the indicators I use. In this interpretation of the chart, we're currently in this rising wedge pattern trying to find a bottom. I think there's likely to be one more retest of the bottom of the structure before a larger move higher begins. I think if that bottom support holds, that it's likely that we start a run between now and June and could retest the top of the rising wedge and/or push slightly above it in that timeframe. If that happened, it would take price to $65k+, where I think we'd ultimately reject, and which would setup a fall lower. After that, towards the back half of 2022, I think it's likely we see a very quick bear market which retraces sharply down to that $9k-16k price target in the gray box. Let' see how it plays out from here. Note: this is a longer term projection and a lot would have to play out between now and then for this to come true. If the bottom of the structure holds over the next couple of weeks and we start a move higher, that's the first indication this idea is playing out. Then we need to see price reject at the top of the structure before June 20th or so. I'll update this idea as price action continues to play out.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by benjihyam
bitcorn 😎good evening, looks like the attempt at the short squeeze has failed, and it was almost expected. --- >btc broke down below a key algorithmic weekly channel. >playing out a sequence of bearish impulses to the downside. few key levels to keep an eye on: 24~25k (monthly 55ema) 24k = -0.236 of wave 5 of the impulse going down. 23k = 100% extension of the larger move down from 68k 21k = michael saylor gets a margin call 19k = 123.60% extension of the larger move 14.6k = 1.618% extension, aka expansion target. where it stops is beyond me, but i can theorize \ try at ever level with a very tight stop. ps. there is a full moon on 5\15, a historical indication of a local bottom \ bullish reversal. ps.2. despite the 60% decline since november, people still seem to be bullish (myself included lol), which makes me think there's more pain to come. when despair sets in, the bottom will be near. ✌
by notoriousbids
5
Bitcoin (Macro) Elliott Wave Theory Analysis.Good afternoon peoples; Thought I'd share my macro outlook on Bitcoin with you all. This particular count has been one of the biggest challenges I've ever faced in these markets, but after a few years of experience - I feel I've finally tackled it. ----- To keep things real simple, the chart says it all. I think we're going to see 22k by around July, after which btc will run to 126k. 126k will mark a significant cycle top, and a very large correction will take place after (which could last a few years). I'm not going to talk too much about that right now since that's way in the future, but I will absolutely bring it up when the time comes. ----- The market is by no means linear, so my view is subject to change as more data presents itself in the months ahead. If any significant changes take place, you know I'll be the first to give you an update about it. I've no bias in this market, I don't read\watch the news; all of my projections are strictly based on the methods that were taught to me by a very talented technical trader. I have no idea what will cause these large moves either, nor does it matter to me right now. The chart paints a very beautiful picture, and it is based off this picture which I base all of my trades on, nothing else. ----- Grand Cycle Wave 3 = $126k Grand Cycle Wave 4 = $10k Grand Cycle Wave 5 = $1.6M 💰
INDEX:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
7
btc 5-10 update ~good morning o/ nice little relief rally for da bulls but i'm afraid that's all this really is, a wave 4 bounce. could go as high as 34k before seeing another leg down to around 27.2k (where i will become a buyer). ---- what i have projected on my chart, is the highest probability path i could see for bitcoin from here, to complete the larger corrective phase. PS. if it could push above 34k, then there could potentially be something else going on (view my post from yesterday for more context)
by notoriousbids
2